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辦公地產(chǎn)困境難解:辦公樓得不到貸款,,市場沒有流動(dòng)性

ALENA BOTROS
2023-08-10

低成本融資的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束。

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商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的困境愈演愈烈,。蓋蒂圖片社

里奇·戈特利布在費(fèi)城商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司Keystone工作了超過18年,曾擔(dān)任該公司的高級(jí)副總裁,,現(xiàn)任總裁兼首席運(yùn)營官,。與其他許多人一樣,他也將辦公樓行業(yè)的低迷歸咎于向遠(yuǎn)程辦公轉(zhuǎn)變的普遍趨勢,,他認(rèn)為這嚴(yán)重影響了需求,。此外,低成本融資的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束,,特點(diǎn)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境向更高利率和更嚴(yán)格的信貸條件轉(zhuǎn)變,。

戈特利布對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“目前,辦公樓得不到貸款……市場上缺乏流動(dòng)性,?!备晏乩急硎荆噬蠞q侵蝕了大量現(xiàn)金流,,他認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)“艱難時(shí)期”,。

他認(rèn)為,當(dāng)前辦公地產(chǎn)低迷與之前的情況區(qū)別在于,,辦公樓的業(yè)主現(xiàn)在想要知道需求是否會(huì)有所反彈。

戈特利布表示:“現(xiàn)在,,人們都在懷疑是否還需要辦公室,。我認(rèn)為辦公樓的需求會(huì)恢復(fù)。世事多變,,一切都在不斷變化,,但根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn),范式轉(zhuǎn)變速度飛快,,之后它們會(huì)恢復(fù)到更接近于最開始的狀態(tài),。”

戈特利布最早承認(rèn),,當(dāng)前的狀況對他或他所在的行業(yè)不利,,因此可以說隨著人們重回辦公室,,他和他所在的行業(yè)將從中受益。無論如何,,考慮到當(dāng)前的情況,,如果公司有機(jī)會(huì)通過減少辦公空間節(jié)約支出,它們一定會(huì)抓住機(jī)會(huì),。正如戈特利布所說,,這種狀況引發(fā)了所謂的“價(jià)值重置”。但戈特利布表示,,房地產(chǎn)的價(jià)值,、空置率和交易量“存在巨大差異”,占據(jù)優(yōu)勢的主要是所謂便利設(shè)施配套更齊全的建筑,。他表示,,大部分公司確實(shí)想要辦公空間,只是這取決于他們想要多大空間,。

在被問到戈特利布的公司是否不得不出售任何建筑甚至將地產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)交給貸款機(jī)構(gòu)時(shí),,他不置可否,而是回答稱:“我們與其他人一樣都面臨挑戰(zhàn),?!钡硎荆罱K,,公司依舊是貸款機(jī)構(gòu)想要合作的對象之一,。

他說道:“大環(huán)境的變化對所有人產(chǎn)生了影響。如果[貸款機(jī)構(gòu)]希望取得房產(chǎn)的所有權(quán),,他們會(huì)選擇與我合作——他們將房產(chǎn)交給其他人能得到什么回報(bào),?”他問道:“一旦他們?nèi)∠盅浩汾H回權(quán),房地產(chǎn)就會(huì)貶值,。他們并不具備運(yùn)營這些商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的能力,。而且市場上出售房地產(chǎn)缺乏流動(dòng)性,除非市場跌至低谷,。因此,,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),我們和貸款機(jī)構(gòu)正在相互合作,?!?/p>

即便如此,戈特利布表示,,Keystone在再融資方面領(lǐng)先于同行,。該公司依舊在重新評(píng)估其資產(chǎn)組合,并開始將其辦公樓改造成多戶住宅,。戈特利布表示,,這符合公司多年來培養(yǎng)的“核心競爭力”,,因?yàn)楣疽郧熬蜁?huì)購買郊區(qū)的舊辦公樓,并投入大量資金對它們進(jìn)行重新定位,,而不是只進(jìn)行表面維修或裝飾,。他表示,這些舊辦公樓通常位于黃金地段,,但它們需要資本注入,。有時(shí)候這意味著要為辦公樓安裝新空調(diào)系統(tǒng),或者徹底拆除幕墻和將外墻換成玻璃,,以獲得自然光照明,。

戈特利布表示:“這是我們最初的經(jīng)營策略,并演變成了當(dāng)前的混合用途策略,。我們從來不擔(dān)心對現(xiàn)有建筑進(jìn)行改造,。而且,我們犯過許多錯(cuò)誤,,但我將其歸因于經(jīng)驗(yàn),。因此,對我們而言,,將辦公樓改造成住宅聽起來更像是挑戰(zhàn),,卻并不會(huì)令我們感到恐懼?!?/p>

戈特利布表示,,Keystone并非將辦公樓完全改造成住宅,而是轉(zhuǎn)變成混合用途空間,。他提到了費(fèi)城市區(qū)的辦公樓Curtis,。這棟辦公樓面積接近100萬平方英尺,曾經(jīng)是一家出版社,,已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)?shù)氐牡貥?biāo)之一,。戈特利布表示,辦公樓內(nèi)的部分空間尺寸不規(guī)則,,但卻適合改造成公寓,。因此,他表示,,該公司創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)單獨(dú)的區(qū)域并建成了公寓,現(xiàn)在這里是費(fèi)城房價(jià)最高的公寓之一,。該措施增加了房屋供應(yīng),,在全美房屋建設(shè)量不足的情況下,這些房屋滿足了需求,,但它并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房源,。

戈特利布表示:“目前建設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)適用住房困難重重,。”之后他表示“現(xiàn)在所有條件都不利于這樣做”,。

他表示,,建設(shè)成本上漲,借款成本上漲,,而貸款機(jī)構(gòu)愿意提供的貸款金額卻在減少,。他認(rèn)為,歸根結(jié)底,,投資者希望獲得回報(bào),。這意味著,建設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房并不是投資者們最看重的投資項(xiàng)目,。

戈特利布表示,,在Keystone將辦公樓改造成多戶住宅的過程中,首先是查看地理位置,,然后研究建筑一個(gè)樓層的可租賃面積,。他解釋稱:“因此,如果我能設(shè)計(jì)一棟建筑,,只損失10%或20%的空間,,這遠(yuǎn)好過損失40%的辦公樓可出租空間?!?/p>

但Keystone的秘密武器似乎是混合用途分區(qū),。戈特利布表示,盡管過去幾年興起了接受混合用途環(huán)境的趨勢,,但費(fèi)城城區(qū)的區(qū)劃代碼適用于公寓,,郊區(qū)卻按用途劃分。區(qū)域劃分有時(shí)候可能是交易成敗的決定性條件,,因?yàn)閰^(qū)域劃分可能會(huì)延誤建設(shè)過程,。戈特利布表示,在開始開發(fā)之前,,有時(shí)候僅僅區(qū)域劃分獲得批準(zhǔn)就可能需要一兩年時(shí)間,。

他說道:“改造辦公樓并不像人們想象的那么簡單。大多數(shù)建筑的改造項(xiàng)目并不成功,?!?

而且,考慮到市場上幾乎沒有任何流動(dòng)性,,你可能認(rèn)為,,這類改造項(xiàng)目甚至難以獲得貸款。戈特利布表示:“當(dāng)前世事艱難。我認(rèn)為如果我們現(xiàn)在才有所行動(dòng),,那么答案就是我們的項(xiàng)目無法獲得貸款,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

里奇·戈特利布在費(fèi)城商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司Keystone工作了超過18年,,曾擔(dān)任該公司的高級(jí)副總裁,,現(xiàn)任總裁兼首席運(yùn)營官。與其他許多人一樣,,他也將辦公樓行業(yè)的低迷歸咎于向遠(yuǎn)程辦公轉(zhuǎn)變的普遍趨勢,,他認(rèn)為這嚴(yán)重影響了需求。此外,,低成本融資的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束,,特點(diǎn)就是經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境向更高利率和更嚴(yán)格的信貸條件轉(zhuǎn)變。

戈特利布對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“目前,,辦公樓得不到貸款……市場上缺乏流動(dòng)性,。”戈特利布表示,,利率上漲侵蝕了大量現(xiàn)金流,,他認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)“艱難時(shí)期”。

他認(rèn)為,,當(dāng)前辦公地產(chǎn)低迷與之前的情況區(qū)別在于,,辦公樓的業(yè)主現(xiàn)在想要知道需求是否會(huì)有所反彈。

戈特利布表示:“現(xiàn)在,,人們都在懷疑是否還需要辦公室,。我認(rèn)為辦公樓的需求會(huì)恢復(fù)。世事多變,,一切都在不斷變化,,但根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn),范式轉(zhuǎn)變速度飛快,,之后它們會(huì)恢復(fù)到更接近于最開始的狀態(tài),。”

戈特利布最早承認(rèn),,當(dāng)前的狀況對他或他所在的行業(yè)不利,,因此可以說隨著人們重回辦公室,他和他所在的行業(yè)將從中受益,。無論如何,,考慮到當(dāng)前的情況,如果公司有機(jī)會(huì)通過減少辦公空間節(jié)約支出,,它們一定會(huì)抓住機(jī)會(huì),。正如戈特利布所說,這種狀況引發(fā)了所謂的“價(jià)值重置”。但戈特利布表示,,房地產(chǎn)的價(jià)值、空置率和交易量“存在巨大差異”,,占據(jù)優(yōu)勢的主要是所謂便利設(shè)施配套更齊全的建筑,。他表示,大部分公司確實(shí)想要辦公空間,,只是這取決于他們想要多大空間,。

在被問到戈特利布的公司是否不得不出售任何建筑甚至將地產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)交給貸款機(jī)構(gòu)時(shí),他不置可否,,而是回答稱:“我們與其他人一樣都面臨挑戰(zhàn),。”但他表示,,最終,,公司依舊是貸款機(jī)構(gòu)想要合作的對象之一。

他說道:“大環(huán)境的變化對所有人產(chǎn)生了影響,。如果[貸款機(jī)構(gòu)]希望取得房產(chǎn)的所有權(quán),,他們會(huì)選擇與我合作——他們將房產(chǎn)交給其他人能得到什么回報(bào)?”他問道:“一旦他們?nèi)∠盅浩汾H回權(quán),,房地產(chǎn)就會(huì)貶值,。他們并不具備運(yùn)營這些商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的能力。而且市場上出售房地產(chǎn)缺乏流動(dòng)性,,除非市場跌至低谷,。因此,我們發(fā)現(xiàn),,我們和貸款機(jī)構(gòu)正在相互合作,。”

即便如此,,戈特利布表示,,Keystone在再融資方面領(lǐng)先于同行。該公司依舊在重新評(píng)估其資產(chǎn)組合,,并開始將其辦公樓改造成多戶住宅,。戈特利布表示,這符合公司多年來培養(yǎng)的“核心競爭力”,,因?yàn)楣疽郧熬蜁?huì)購買郊區(qū)的舊辦公樓,,并投入大量資金對它們進(jìn)行重新定位,而不是只進(jìn)行表面維修或裝飾,。他表示,,這些舊辦公樓通常位于黃金地段,但它們需要資本注入。有時(shí)候這意味著要為辦公樓安裝新空調(diào)系統(tǒng),,或者徹底拆除幕墻和將外墻換成玻璃,,以獲得自然光照明。

戈特利布表示:“這是我們最初的經(jīng)營策略,,并演變成了當(dāng)前的混合用途策略,。我們從來不擔(dān)心對現(xiàn)有建筑進(jìn)行改造。而且,,我們犯過許多錯(cuò)誤,,但我將其歸因于經(jīng)驗(yàn)。因此,,對我們而言,,將辦公樓改造成住宅聽起來更像是挑戰(zhàn),卻并不會(huì)令我們感到恐懼,?!?/p>

戈特利布表示,Keystone并非將辦公樓完全改造成住宅,,而是轉(zhuǎn)變成混合用途空間,。他提到了費(fèi)城市區(qū)的辦公樓Curtis。這棟辦公樓面積接近100萬平方英尺,,曾經(jīng)是一家出版社,,已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)?shù)氐牡貥?biāo)之一。戈特利布表示,,辦公樓內(nèi)的部分空間尺寸不規(guī)則,,但卻適合改造成公寓。因此,,他表示,,該公司創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)單獨(dú)的區(qū)域并建成了公寓,現(xiàn)在這里是費(fèi)城房價(jià)最高的公寓之一,。該措施增加了房屋供應(yīng),,在全美房屋建設(shè)量不足的情況下,這些房屋滿足了需求,,但它并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房源,。

戈特利布表示:“目前建設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)適用住房困難重重?!敝笏硎尽艾F(xiàn)在所有條件都不利于這樣做”,。

他表示,建設(shè)成本上漲,,借款成本上漲,,而貸款機(jī)構(gòu)愿意提供的貸款金額卻在減少,。他認(rèn)為,歸根結(jié)底,,投資者希望獲得回報(bào),。這意味著,建設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房并不是投資者們最看重的投資項(xiàng)目,。

戈特利布表示,,在Keystone將辦公樓改造成多戶住宅的過程中,首先是查看地理位置,,然后研究建筑一個(gè)樓層的可租賃面積。他解釋稱:“因此,,如果我能設(shè)計(jì)一棟建筑,,只損失10%或20%的空間,這遠(yuǎn)好過損失40%的辦公樓可出租空間,?!?/p>

但Keystone的秘密武器似乎是混合用途分區(qū)。戈特利布表示,,盡管過去幾年興起了接受混合用途環(huán)境的趨勢,,但費(fèi)城城區(qū)的區(qū)劃代碼適用于公寓,郊區(qū)卻按用途劃分,。區(qū)域劃分有時(shí)候可能是交易成敗的決定性條件,,因?yàn)閰^(qū)域劃分可能會(huì)延誤建設(shè)過程。戈特利布表示,,在開始開發(fā)之前,,有時(shí)候僅僅區(qū)域劃分獲得批準(zhǔn)就可能需要一兩年時(shí)間。

他說道:“改造辦公樓并不像人們想象的那么簡單,。大多數(shù)建筑的改造項(xiàng)目并不成功,。”

而且,,考慮到市場上幾乎沒有任何流動(dòng)性,,你可能認(rèn)為,這類改造項(xiàng)目甚至難以獲得貸款,。戈特利布表示:“當(dāng)前世事艱難,。我認(rèn)為如果我們現(xiàn)在才有所行動(dòng),那么答案就是我們的項(xiàng)目無法獲得貸款,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Rich Gottlieb has been with Keystone, a Philadelphia-based commercial real estate firm, for more than 18 years, and now he’s the company’s president and chief operating officer after a stint as senior vice president. Like countless others, he attributes the distress within the office sector to the widespread shift toward remote work, which has significantly impacted demand. Additionally, the era of inexpensive financing has come to an end, marked by the transition to an economic environment characterized by higher interest rates and stricter credit conditions.

“For an office building, you can’t get a loan today…there’s no liquidity in the marketplace,” Gottlieb told Fortune. And with interest rates being higher, it’s eating away at a lot of the cash flow, Gottlieb said, calling it a “very trying time.”

In his view, the difference with this office real estate downturn as compared to previous downturns is that office owners are wondering if demand will ever return.

“This time, people are questioning whether they’re going to need that space at all,” Gottlieb said. “I believe they will be back. Things always evolve, things always change, but my experience has been that paradigm shifts move really quickly and then they come back closer to where it started.”

Gottlieb was the first to admit that what’s going on isn’t good for him or his industry, so it’s safe to say that he and his industry would benefit from people returning to the office. Either way, given where we’re at, if companies have the opportunity to save money by cutting back on office space, they’ll take it. It’s all triggering a “reset in value,” as Gottlieb put it. But Gottlieb said that property values, vacancy rates, and transactions are “all over the board,” with the so-called better buildings with better amenities mostly coming out on top. And for the most part, he said, companies do want office space, it just depends on how much space they want.

“We have challenges, like everybody else,” Gottlieb responded, after being asked if the firm has had to sell any of its buildings, or even turn in the keys , without giving a yes or no answer. But he did say that at the end of the day, the firm is one that lenders want to work with.

“The world changed on all of us,” he said. “If [the lenders] want to take the keys back, they take it from me—what are they getting by giving it to the next guy?” he asked, adding, “Once they foreclose, it’s worth even less. They don’t really have the capabilities typically to operate. And there’s no liquidity in the market to sell, unless it’s rock, rock, rock bottom. So we’re finding that lenders are working with us and we’re working with them.”

Even so, Gottlieb said, Keystone was ahead of the game in refinancing. Still, in reevaluating its portfolio, the firm has entered into the world of office-to-multifamily conversions. Gottlieb said it plays to their “core competency” over the years, considering that the company used to buy older, suburban offices and put a lot of money into them, not just a Band-Aid or some makeup, as he put it, to reposition them. Those older office buildings were typically in the best locations, but they needed capital, he said. Sometimes that meant putting new air conditioning systems in, or completely removing the facade and replacing that exterior with glass for natural light.

“That’s where we started, and we morphed into this mixed use,” Gottlieb said. “We were never afraid to work within an existing building. And, you know, we’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way, but I chalked it up to experience. So converting a building from office to residential sounds more like a challenge than something to be scared of to us.”

Instead of a complete conversion, Gottlieb said, Keystone has made office buildings into mixed-used spaces. He gave the example of the Curtis building in downtown Philadelphia, which was just under a million square feet and has become a sort of landmark in the city as a former publishing house. Gottlieb said part of the office had unusual sizing, but it was the perfect depth for apartments. So the company created a separate area and built apartments—which are now some of the highest-priced in Philadelphia, he said. That creates more supply, which is needed because the nation’s housing market is underbuilt, but it’s not affordable housing.

“It’s hard to do affordable housing anywhere, anytime right now,” Gottlieb said, adding later that “every lever is kind of working against you.”

The price of construction is up, the cost of borrowing is up, and the amount of money lenders are willing to lend is down, he said. And at the end of the day, in his view, investors want a return. That’s all to say that affordable housing doesn’t seem to be the number one thing on investors’ minds.

In Keystone’s own office-to-multifamily conversion process, Gottlieb said they start by looking at location, then they look at floor plates, which just refers to the leasable space on an entire floor of a building. “So if I have a building that I can design, and I’m only losing 10% or 20% of the space, that’s way better than a building that I’m losing 40% of the office rentable area,” he explained.

But what seems to be Keystone’s secret weapon, if you will, is mixed-use zoning. Downtown Philadelphia’s zoning code works for apartments, Gottlieb said, but the suburbs are sort of separated by uses—although there has been a push over the last several years to accept a mixed-use environment. Zoning can sometimes be a deal breaker, taking into account how much it can slow down the building process. Gottlieb said it can take one to two years sometimes just to get zoning approval before you even start development.

“It’s not the slam dunk that everybody thinks it is,” he said. “It’s not that easy. Most buildings don’t work.”

Still, seeing that there’s hardly any liquidity in the market, you’d think that even securing a loan for these conversions would be difficult. “Everything’s a struggle today,” Gottlieb said. “And I think if we were just starting out, the answer would be we couldn’t get a loan for it.”

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