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一位商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司CEO表示,,辦公樓市場崩潰已經(jīng)開始

ALENA BOTROS
2023-06-05

辦公樓與其他商業(yè)地產(chǎn)之間有一點(diǎn)區(qū)別,使辦公樓市場面臨最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,而這個(gè)區(qū)別就是需求。

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一家商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司的CEO表示,,辦公樓業(yè)主即將陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境,。圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場有許多不確定性,現(xiàn)在所有人都在關(guān)注辦公樓領(lǐng)域,。從大銀行發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告到學(xué)術(shù)論文都顯示,,受到遠(yuǎn)程辦公的沖擊,辦公樓市場前景堪憂,。

但在已經(jīng)動蕩不安的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,,辦公樓市場是否會成為下一個(gè)倒下的行業(yè)?為了回答所有人都密切關(guān)注的這個(gè)問題,,我們采訪了圣塔莫尼卡商業(yè)地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)與咨詢公司Corion Enterprises的首席執(zhí)行官兼創(chuàng)始人弗萊德·科多瓦,。

科多瓦用各種有趣的、相關(guān)聯(lián)的比喻,,證明辦公樓行業(yè)正在陷入崩潰,,他的公司早在一年多前就已經(jīng)預(yù)測到了這種狀況。根據(jù)科多瓦對辦公樓物業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的分析可以看出,,辦公樓與其他商業(yè)地產(chǎn)之間有一點(diǎn)區(qū)別,,使辦公樓市場面臨最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,而這個(gè)區(qū)別就是需求。

所有商業(yè)地產(chǎn)都容易受到高通脹的影響,,因?yàn)楦咄浀韧诟呃?。但新冠疫情?dǎo)致的向居家辦公模式的廣泛轉(zhuǎn)變,大幅減少了對辦公室的需求,。在洛杉磯,、舊金山和曼哈頓等大規(guī)模市場,辦公樓空置率創(chuàng)歷史新高,。

以下是《財(cái)富》雜志對弗萊德·科多瓦的訪談內(nèi)容,。為明確和清晰起見,部分問題經(jīng)過編輯和精簡,。

《財(cái)富》:摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley),、高盛(Goldman Sachs)等銀行業(yè)巨頭似乎都在拉響警報(bào),強(qiáng)調(diào)辦公樓市場存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。辦公樓市場是否即將崩潰,?

科多瓦:他們并不是在拉響警報(bào),而是在“馬沖出馬棚”的時(shí)候才敲響警鐘,。這種警告已經(jīng)存在了一段時(shí)間,。辦公樓市場當(dāng)前的狀況很具有啟發(fā)性:我們建設(shè)了大量僵尸建筑,沒有人想在這些建筑中投入任何資金,,因?yàn)樗鼈兊馁Y本結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)崩潰,。

辦公樓市場的現(xiàn)狀產(chǎn)生于三個(gè)不利因素的影響。顯而易見,,通貨膨脹增加了入住成本,,并且給承擔(dān)不同運(yùn)營成本的業(yè)主們帶來了壓力。除非他們采取由租客支付保險(xiǎn),、地產(chǎn)稅和物業(yè)管理費(fèi)的出租方式(有些業(yè)主采取這種方式,,但大多數(shù)房產(chǎn)的出租方式并非如此),否則辦公樓的入住成本和提供服務(wù)的成本將持續(xù)上漲,。這是第一個(gè)不利因素,。第二個(gè)因素是利率。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的杠桿率較高,,甚至某些情況的杠桿率極高,。因此,利率成本對績效的影響巨大,。隨著利率大幅提高,,擁有房產(chǎn)的凈現(xiàn)金流量下降,幾乎所有現(xiàn)金流都被用于償還債務(wù),。

第三個(gè)因素是辦公樓特有的問題,,那就是需求狀況,,而造成這種狀況的原因是疫情。要養(yǎng)成一種習(xí)慣,,只需要將一件事重復(fù)約50次,,而習(xí)慣一旦養(yǎng)成就很難更改。疫情讓人們養(yǎng)成了居家辦公的習(xí)慣,。首先,,這個(gè)習(xí)慣讓人們增加了實(shí)際收入。而從更根本的角度來說,,它讓人們擁有了選擇權(quán),,讓上班族可以選擇坐在桌子邊辦公,還是在廚房里辦公,,是穿著睡衣工作,還是一邊遛狗一邊工作,。居家辦公徹底改變了工作與生活的平衡和生活質(zhì)量,,變成了一種習(xí)慣。這意味著租戶需要的空間減少,。如果突然之間,,你不需要10萬平方英尺的空間,只需要5萬或者2.5萬平方英尺就已經(jīng)足夠,,這會影響辦公樓的利用率,,進(jìn)而影響辦公樓的租金。

這對于物業(yè)的價(jià)值評估意味著什么,?

假設(shè)一棟辦公樓的購買價(jià)格為2.3億美元,,它的售價(jià)可能只有1億美元。而且為了將房子租出去,,你還需要再支出至少1億美元用于租戶改善,,希望能吸引租戶。這只是成本,。還有利息呢,?如果你能幸運(yùn)地得到一筆貸款,順便說一句,,并非任何人都能申請到貸款,,目前辦公樓的債務(wù)缺少流動性;你需要為使用貸款付出成本,。你的付出不會創(chuàng)造任何價(jià)值,。

這方面的模擬或者擔(dān)保面臨巨大壓力。現(xiàn)在人們基本上放棄了模型,,因?yàn)槟P筒⒉荒艽硪磺?。真正會發(fā)生的情況是,,人們會只按照面積數(shù)據(jù)購買資產(chǎn)。他們會降價(jià)購買辦公物業(yè),,因此資產(chǎn)價(jià)值將大幅下跌,。

辦公樓物業(yè)的未來前景是怎樣的?

辦公樓需要資本注入,,這是該領(lǐng)域正常運(yùn)行的唯一途徑,。目前,大多數(shù)銀行負(fù)債都已經(jīng)經(jīng)過配對,,這意味著這些負(fù)債中無法提供權(quán)益,,因此它們都變成了僵尸建筑。業(yè)主因?yàn)闊o法擺脫困境,,因此不會為了收回?fù)p失而繼續(xù)追加投入,。貸款機(jī)構(gòu)也不會投入資金,因?yàn)檫@相當(dāng)于杯水車薪,,他們無法從中獲得任何價(jià)值回報(bào),。辦公樓物業(yè)會被出售;貸款機(jī)構(gòu)將成為控制方,。貸款機(jī)構(gòu)希望保住他們自己的資產(chǎn),,而保住貸款余額最好的方法就是低價(jià)賣掉辦公樓物業(yè)。

當(dāng)前還有誰會購買辦公樓,?

問得好,。這個(gè)問題的答案很簡單:沒有人會購買辦公樓。沒有人知道利率的變動趨勢,,也沒有人知道未來通貨膨脹的狀況,。人們不了解資本成本,因此沒有人愿意為辦公樓提供貸款,,辦公樓的債務(wù)也就不會有流動性,。

我想你會看到一家或多家房地產(chǎn)投資信托(REITs)被私有化,而且對此我并不感到意外,。如果美聯(lián)儲能夠放松油門,,停止加息,表明他們將暫停加息,,甚至在年底時(shí)降息,,并且通貨膨脹得到控制,到那時(shí)你會看到有買家重新進(jìn)入市場,。

辦公樓物業(yè)價(jià)值下降有哪些影響,?

從擁有物業(yè)的角度,假如不考慮辦公樓的權(quán)益,這對社會的影響極小,,因?yàn)槭苡绊懙耐顿Y者都很精明,,他們會繼續(xù)投資。真正受到傷害的是公眾,。各類資產(chǎn)的房產(chǎn)稅會大幅下降,,而依賴這些房產(chǎn)稅的預(yù)算將會超支,嚴(yán)重超支,。然后這些資產(chǎn)所在的社區(qū)將被毀滅,。在某些方面,洛杉磯市區(qū)已經(jīng)幾乎變成了廢墟,。

租戶紛紛搬出洛杉磯,,他們的員工不想到洛杉磯辦公。這會產(chǎn)生雪球效應(yīng):餐廳和入駐的所有服務(wù)類商戶得不到支持,,因此他們只能關(guān)門大吉,。

現(xiàn)在流行一種將空置辦公樓改造成住宅的說法。能跟我們談?wù)撘幌逻@種觀點(diǎn)嗎,?

行業(yè)需要的巨變是將這些資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行資本重組,,并改造部分資產(chǎn)的用途。我想你會聽到更多關(guān)于從辦公樓到多戶住宅的說法,。價(jià)值依舊會下降到每平方英尺100美元的水平,目前尚未達(dá)到這個(gè)水平,。辦公樓每平方英尺100美元相當(dāng)于多戶住宅的每平方英尺[可租賃空間]125美元,,因?yàn)樵趯⑥k公樓改造成多戶住宅的過程中,會損失約20%的可租賃空間,;這是兩者的差距所在,。建筑改造的成本約為每平方英尺250至350美元,因此目前仍存在缺口,。但如果你能填補(bǔ)權(quán)益缺口,,就能完成對部分建筑的改造。我認(rèn)為,,這需要私人與城市和州政府合作,,這是我們目前的做法。

在我看來,,您似乎認(rèn)為辦公樓市場已經(jīng)崩潰或者正在崩潰的過程中,?

您有沒有看過丹澤爾·華盛頓主演的電影《迫降航班》(Flight)?飛機(jī)的機(jī)翼起火,,只能緊急迫降,。問題只是撞擊的嚴(yán)重程度有多大。這部電影很有啟發(fā)性,。

我們有太多辦公空間需要消失,,無論是拆除還是進(jìn)行改造,。整個(gè)辦公樓行業(yè)需要重置。我認(rèn)為,,我們需要培養(yǎng)新員工,,他們可以選擇居家辦公的時(shí)間,但需要接受一定的約束,。讓員工重回辦公樓辦公之后,,我們需要對這些資產(chǎn)重新進(jìn)行價(jià)值評估。然后,,我們必須放棄許多沒有意義的辦公樓,。

這一切的前提是利率下降。利率和通脹必須趨于穩(wěn)定,,這樣我們才有能力進(jìn)行擔(dān)保和預(yù)測,,才能清楚投資辦公樓的成本、回報(bào)和價(jià)值,。

如果你一直在暴風(fēng)雪中滑雪,,看不到天空,這是非常瘋狂的,,也非??膳隆D愕男羞M(jìn)速度將變得非常緩慢,。這就是我們目前的狀態(tài),。我們正在經(jīng)歷一場暴風(fēng)雪,一場籠罩辦公樓市場的經(jīng)濟(jì)暴風(fēng)雪,。所有人都要慢慢前行,,直到雪過天晴。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場有許多不確定性,,現(xiàn)在所有人都在關(guān)注辦公樓領(lǐng)域,。從大銀行發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告到學(xué)術(shù)論文都顯示,受到遠(yuǎn)程辦公的沖擊,,辦公樓市場前景堪憂,。

但在已經(jīng)動蕩不安的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,辦公樓市場是否會成為下一個(gè)倒下的行業(yè),?為了回答所有人都密切關(guān)注的這個(gè)問題,,我們采訪了圣塔莫尼卡商業(yè)地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)與咨詢公司Corion Enterprises的首席執(zhí)行官兼創(chuàng)始人弗萊德·科多瓦。

科多瓦用各種有趣的,、相關(guān)聯(lián)的比喻,,證明辦公樓行業(yè)正在陷入崩潰,他的公司早在一年多前就已經(jīng)預(yù)測到了這種狀況。根據(jù)科多瓦對辦公樓物業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的分析可以看出,,辦公樓與其他商業(yè)地產(chǎn)之間有一點(diǎn)區(qū)別,,使辦公樓市場面臨最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而這個(gè)區(qū)別就是需求,。

所有商業(yè)地產(chǎn)都容易受到高通脹的影響,,因?yàn)楦咄浀韧诟呃省5鹿谝咔閷?dǎo)致的向居家辦公模式的廣泛轉(zhuǎn)變,,大幅減少了對辦公室的需求,。在洛杉磯、舊金山和曼哈頓等大規(guī)模市場,,辦公樓空置率創(chuàng)歷史新高,。

以下是《財(cái)富》雜志對弗萊德·科多瓦的訪談內(nèi)容。為明確和清晰起見,,部分問題經(jīng)過編輯和精簡,。

《財(cái)富》:摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)等銀行業(yè)巨頭似乎都在拉響警報(bào),,強(qiáng)調(diào)辦公樓市場存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。辦公樓市場是否即將崩潰?

科多瓦:他們并不是在拉響警報(bào),,而是在“馬沖出馬棚”的時(shí)候才敲響警鐘,。這種警告已經(jīng)存在了一段時(shí)間。辦公樓市場當(dāng)前的狀況很具有啟發(fā)性:我們建設(shè)了大量僵尸建筑,,沒有人想在這些建筑中投入任何資金,,因?yàn)樗鼈兊馁Y本結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)崩潰。

辦公樓市場的現(xiàn)狀產(chǎn)生于三個(gè)不利因素的影響,。顯而易見,,通貨膨脹增加了入住成本,,并且給承擔(dān)不同運(yùn)營成本的業(yè)主們帶來了壓力,。除非他們采取由租客支付保險(xiǎn)、地產(chǎn)稅和物業(yè)管理費(fèi)的出租方式(有些業(yè)主采取這種方式,,但大多數(shù)房產(chǎn)的出租方式并非如此),,否則辦公樓的入住成本和提供服務(wù)的成本將持續(xù)上漲。這是第一個(gè)不利因素,。第二個(gè)因素是利率,。房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的杠桿率較高,甚至某些情況的杠桿率極高,。因此,,利率成本對績效的影響巨大。隨著利率大幅提高,擁有房產(chǎn)的凈現(xiàn)金流量下降,,幾乎所有現(xiàn)金流都被用于償還債務(wù),。

第三個(gè)因素是辦公樓特有的問題,那就是需求狀況,,而造成這種狀況的原因是疫情,。要養(yǎng)成一種習(xí)慣,只需要將一件事重復(fù)約50次,,而習(xí)慣一旦養(yǎng)成就很難更改,。疫情讓人們養(yǎng)成了居家辦公的習(xí)慣。首先,,這個(gè)習(xí)慣讓人們增加了實(shí)際收入,。而從更根本的角度來說,它讓人們擁有了選擇權(quán),,讓上班族可以選擇坐在桌子邊辦公,,還是在廚房里辦公,是穿著睡衣工作,,還是一邊遛狗一邊工作,。居家辦公徹底改變了工作與生活的平衡和生活質(zhì)量,變成了一種習(xí)慣,。這意味著租戶需要的空間減少,。如果突然之間,你不需要10萬平方英尺的空間,,只需要5萬或者2.5萬平方英尺就已經(jīng)足夠,,這會影響辦公樓的利用率,進(jìn)而影響辦公樓的租金,。

這對于物業(yè)的價(jià)值評估意味著什么,?

假設(shè)一棟辦公樓的購買價(jià)格為2.3億美元,它的售價(jià)可能只有1億美元,。而且為了將房子租出去,,你還需要再支出至少1億美元用于租戶改善,希望能吸引租戶,。這只是成本,。還有利息呢?如果你能幸運(yùn)地得到一筆貸款,,順便說一句,,并非任何人都能申請到貸款,目前辦公樓的債務(wù)缺少流動性,;你需要為使用貸款付出成本,。你的付出不會創(chuàng)造任何價(jià)值,。

這方面的模擬或者擔(dān)保面臨巨大壓力。現(xiàn)在人們基本上放棄了模型,,因?yàn)槟P筒⒉荒艽硪磺?。真正會發(fā)生的情況是,人們會只按照面積數(shù)據(jù)購買資產(chǎn),。他們會降價(jià)購買辦公物業(yè),,因此資產(chǎn)價(jià)值將大幅下跌。

辦公樓物業(yè)的未來前景是怎樣的,?

辦公樓需要資本注入,,這是該領(lǐng)域正常運(yùn)行的唯一途徑。目前,,大多數(shù)銀行負(fù)債都已經(jīng)經(jīng)過配對,,這意味著這些負(fù)債中無法提供權(quán)益,因此它們都變成了僵尸建筑,。業(yè)主因?yàn)闊o法擺脫困境,,因此不會為了收回?fù)p失而繼續(xù)追加投入。貸款機(jī)構(gòu)也不會投入資金,,因?yàn)檫@相當(dāng)于杯水車薪,,他們無法從中獲得任何價(jià)值回報(bào)。辦公樓物業(yè)會被出售,;貸款機(jī)構(gòu)將成為控制方,。貸款機(jī)構(gòu)希望保住他們自己的資產(chǎn),而保住貸款余額最好的方法就是低價(jià)賣掉辦公樓物業(yè),。

當(dāng)前還有誰會購買辦公樓,?

問得好。這個(gè)問題的答案很簡單:沒有人會購買辦公樓,。沒有人知道利率的變動趨勢,,也沒有人知道未來通貨膨脹的狀況。人們不了解資本成本,,因此沒有人愿意為辦公樓提供貸款,,辦公樓的債務(wù)也就不會有流動性。

我想你會看到一家或多家房地產(chǎn)投資信托(REITs)被私有化,,而且對此我并不感到意外,。如果美聯(lián)儲能夠放松油門,,停止加息,,表明他們將暫停加息,甚至在年底時(shí)降息,,并且通貨膨脹得到控制,,到那時(shí)你會看到有買家重新進(jìn)入市場,。

辦公樓物業(yè)價(jià)值下降有哪些影響?

從擁有物業(yè)的角度,,假如不考慮辦公樓的權(quán)益,,這對社會的影響極小,因?yàn)槭苡绊懙耐顿Y者都很精明,,他們會繼續(xù)投資,。真正受到傷害的是公眾。各類資產(chǎn)的房產(chǎn)稅會大幅下降,,而依賴這些房產(chǎn)稅的預(yù)算將會超支,,嚴(yán)重超支。然后這些資產(chǎn)所在的社區(qū)將被毀滅,。在某些方面,,洛杉磯市區(qū)已經(jīng)幾乎變成了廢墟。

租戶紛紛搬出洛杉磯,,他們的員工不想到洛杉磯辦公,。這會產(chǎn)生雪球效應(yīng):餐廳和入駐的所有服務(wù)類商戶得不到支持,因此他們只能關(guān)門大吉,。

現(xiàn)在流行一種將空置辦公樓改造成住宅的說法,。能跟我們談?wù)撘幌逻@種觀點(diǎn)嗎?

行業(yè)需要的巨變是將這些資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行資本重組,,并改造部分資產(chǎn)的用途,。我想你會聽到更多關(guān)于從辦公樓到多戶住宅的說法。價(jià)值依舊會下降到每平方英尺100美元的水平,,目前尚未達(dá)到這個(gè)水平,。辦公樓每平方英尺100美元相當(dāng)于多戶住宅的每平方英尺[可租賃空間]125美元,因?yàn)樵趯⑥k公樓改造成多戶住宅的過程中,,會損失約20%的可租賃空間,;這是兩者的差距所在。建筑改造的成本約為每平方英尺250至350美元,,因此目前仍存在缺口,。但如果你能填補(bǔ)權(quán)益缺口,就能完成對部分建筑的改造,。我認(rèn)為,,這需要私人與城市和州政府合作,這是我們目前的做法,。

在我看來,,您似乎認(rèn)為辦公樓市場已經(jīng)崩潰或者正在崩潰的過程中?

您有沒有看過丹澤爾·華盛頓主演的電影《迫降航班》(Flight),?飛機(jī)的機(jī)翼起火,,只能緊急迫降,。問題只是撞擊的嚴(yán)重程度有多大。這部電影很有啟發(fā)性,。

我們有太多辦公空間需要消失,,無論是拆除還是進(jìn)行改造。整個(gè)辦公樓行業(yè)需要重置,。我認(rèn)為,,我們需要培養(yǎng)新員工,他們可以選擇居家辦公的時(shí)間,,但需要接受一定的約束,。讓員工重回辦公樓辦公之后,我們需要對這些資產(chǎn)重新進(jìn)行價(jià)值評估,。然后,,我們必須放棄許多沒有意義的辦公樓。

這一切的前提是利率下降,。利率和通脹必須趨于穩(wěn)定,,這樣我們才有能力進(jìn)行擔(dān)保和預(yù)測,才能清楚投資辦公樓的成本,、回報(bào)和價(jià)值,。

如果你一直在暴風(fēng)雪中滑雪,看不到天空,,這是非常瘋狂的,,也非常可怕,。你的行進(jìn)速度將變得非常緩慢,。這就是我們目前的狀態(tài)。我們正在經(jīng)歷一場暴風(fēng)雪,,一場籠罩辦公樓市場的經(jīng)濟(jì)暴風(fēng)雪,。所有人都要慢慢前行,直到雪過天晴,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

GETTY IMAGES

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding commercial real estate, with all eyes on the office space. From research notes published by the big banks to academic papers, it’s not looking too good for the sector that has been plagued by remote work.

But is the office the next shoe to drop in an already turbulent economy? To get an answer to the question that’s on all our minds, we asked Fred Cordova, chief executive officer and founder of Santa Monica–based commercial real estate brokerage and consultancy firm Corion Enterprises.

With Cordova’s wildly entertaining, and relevant, analogies, he basically suggests the office sector is crashing—and that his firm predicted it over a year ago. Following Cordova’s breakdown of the state of office properties, there’s one thing separating office from all other commercial real estate, making it the sector most at risk, and that’s demand.

All commercial real estate is vulnerable to high inflation, which equates to high interest rates. But the widespread shift to working from home, triggered by the pandemic, has largely wrecked the need for a physical office. In major markets like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Manhattan, office vacancy rates are at record highs.

Below is Fortune‘s conversation with Fred Cordova. Portions of the Q&A have been edited and condensed for clarity and brevity.

Fortune: Banking giants from Morgan Stanley to Goldman Sachs seem to be sounding the alarm, stressing that the office sector is at risk. Is the office sector headed for a crash?

Cordova: They’re not sounding the alarm, they’re ringing the bell when the horses are all out of the barn. This has been coming for some time. What’s happening in the office sector is apocalyptical: We’re creating this huge class of zombie buildings, buildings that no one wants to put any money into because the capital structure is broken.

What’s happening is buffeted by three headwinds. You have, obviously, inflation, which drives up occupancy costs and puts pressure on the landlord across the spectrum of their operating costs. So unless their leases are triple net (and some are, but most are not), the occupancy costs and the costs to really deliver service in an office building keep rising. So that’s one. Two is interest rates. The real estate industry is fairly leveraged, and in some cases a highly leveraged industry. So interest costs can be extremely impactful to performance. With the dramatic increase in interest rates, the net cash flow available to ownership has dropped, and virtually all of that is being swept to pay debt.

The third, that’s unique to office, is the demand profile, and that was really caused by the pandemic. It takes about 50 repetitions to create a habit, and once you do that, it’s hard to break it. The pandemic created a habit of people working from home. That habit, first of all, gave people a raise in take-home pay. It also, more fundamentally, gave people the power of choice, so it gave workers the choice of whether to work from their desk or from the kitchen, work in their pajamas, and work while they’re walking their dog. It changed the whole work-life balance and quality of life and became a habit. That means tenants need less space. If all of a sudden you don’t need 100,000 square feet, and you can get by with 50,000 or 25,000 square feet, that affects the utilization of that office building, so it crushes the rent profile of the building.

What does that all mean for property valuations?

Let’s say an office building was purchased for $230 million. I think it’s going to sell for like $100 million. But you are signing up to spend at least $100 million more on your tenant improvements just to lease it up and hope that it gets leased up. That’s just the cost. What about carrying the interest rate? If you’re lucky enough to get a loan—which no one is, by the way—there is no liquidity for office right now on the debt side; you’re paying just for the money. That’s not creating any value.

The modeling for this, the underwriting is extremely stressed. People are pretty much just throwing the models out right now; models don’t mean anything. What’s going to really be happening is people are going to be buying these assets on just a square-footage number. They’re going to buy it on a really discounted basis, and so the asset values will plummet.

What can we expect for office properties moving forward?

The buildings need an injection of capital, it’s the only way it works ever. So right now, most of the bank debt is already paired, meaning there’s no equity in it, so they’re all zombie buildings. The owners aren’t going to put good money after bad because they’re not going to get it out. The lenders aren’t going to put any money in because they’re just throwing a glass of water in the ocean—they’re not going to get any value out. Office properties are going to be sold; lenders are going to get control. The lenders want to preserve their assets, so the best way to preserve the loan balance is to short-sell the asset.

Why would anyone, at this point, buy an office building?

That’s a very good question, and the short answer is, no one is just yet. No one knows where interest rates are going yet, no one knows where inflation is going yet. No one is going to lend on these office buildings when they don’t know what the cost of their capital is, so there’s no liquidity for debt.

What I suspect you’ll see, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this, is to have one or more of the REITs [real estate investment trusts] taken private. And then once the Fed takes its foot off the gas, it stops raising rates, and signals that they’re going to hit the pause button, and maybe even lower rates at the end of the year, and inflation comes in check, then you will see buyers re-enter the marketplace.

What are the effects of these losses in property values?

From the ownership standpoint, and the, let’s say, evisceration of equity in these buildings, it has very little impact on society because these are investors who are smart and move on. But where it really hurts is the public group. Property taxes are going to get slaughtered across the board with every asset class, so the budgets that rely on those property taxes are blown up. Absolutely blown up. Then, the community in which these assets are located is devastated. Downtown L.A. has become almost a wasteland in some respects.

Tenants are moving out of L.A.; their staff doesn’t want to be there. It’s a snowball effect: You can’t support the restaurants, you can’t support all the service businesses that are there, so they’re all closing.

There are conversations circulating about converting vacant office properties into housing. Tell me about that?

The big dramatic change that’s needed is the recapitalization of these assets and the repurposing of some assets. I think you’ll see some more conversions from office to multifamily. The values still have to come down to about $100 per square foot, and they’re not there yet. $100 per square foot for the office space translates into $125 per [rentable] square foot for multifamily because you lose about 20% of the rentable space when you convert; that’s the magic number. It costs about $250 to $350 per square foot to convert these buildings, so there’s a gap right now. But if you can plug that equity gap, which I think there’s a play to do so through a private partner with the city and state and that’s what we’re working on, then you can convert some of these buildings.

It seems to me that you think that the office sector has already crashed or is currently crashing?

Have you seen the Denzel Washington movie Flight? Well, the wings of the plane are on fire, the plane is coming down. It’s just a matter of how hard it’s going to hit. It is apocalyptical.

We have too much office space that just needs to go away, whether it’s torn down or repurposed. The whole office sector needs a reset. I think we’re going to need to create this new employee, someone who gets to choose when they work from home but within certain constraints. Then once we get these people back to work in the buildings, all these assets need to have a new capitalization on them. And then, we have to get rid of a lot of these office buildings that are no longer purposeful.

None of that’s going to happen until interest rates settle down. They have to stabilize and inflation has to stabilize, so that we have the ability to underwrite and prognosticate, and we have some visibility as to what costs, returns, and values are.

If you’ve ever been skiing in a whiteout and you can’t see your skies, it’s pretty crazy, it’s pretty scary. You go real slow. And that’s where we are. We’re in a whiteout, we’re in an economic whiteout for the office space. So everybody is going to move very slowly until the cloud can clarify.

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