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這個指標(biāo)走高,,表明美國通脹壓力依然很大

NICK LICHTENBERG
2023-05-31

美國一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵物價(jià)指標(biāo)4月份走高。

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美國一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵物價(jià)指標(biāo)4月份走高,,消費(fèi)者支出出現(xiàn)反彈,,這表明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的通脹壓力仍然很大,。

美聯(lián)儲密切關(guān)注的通脹指標(biāo)顯示,3月至4月,,物價(jià)上漲0.4%,,遠(yuǎn)高于前一個月0.1%的漲幅。根據(jù)政府周五的報(bào)告,,4月份物價(jià)同比上漲4.4%,,高于3月份的4.2%,。同比數(shù)據(jù)較去年6月7%的峰值大幅下降,,但仍遠(yuǎn)高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)。

盡管物價(jià)上漲,,但消費(fèi)者上個月的支出仍然保持強(qiáng)勁:3月至4月,,消費(fèi)者支出躍升了0.8%,為1月份以來的最大增幅,。

盡管人們長期以來一直預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來,,但周五的報(bào)告突出了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)驚人的彈性。即使物價(jià)持續(xù)上漲,,美國人,,至少是那些收入較高的人,顯然仍愿意消費(fèi),。推動美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要因素是消費(fèi)者支出,,而就業(yè)增長和工資上漲提振了消費(fèi)。

今年前三個月,,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩,,年增長率為1.3%,但預(yù)計(jì)今年第二季度(4-6月)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將提高至2%,。

周五公布的通脹指標(biāo)個人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格指數(shù)與政府更為知名的消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)(CPI)是分開的,。美國政府本月早些時候公布,4月份CPI較12個月前上漲4.9%,。

自通脹飆升(疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后)以來,,個人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)往往比CPI顯示出更低的通脹水平。部分原因是租金在CPI中的權(quán)重是個人消費(fèi)支出(PCE)的兩倍,,而租金是最大的通脹驅(qū)動因素之一,。此外,個人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)試圖反映通脹飆升時人們購物方式的變化,。因此,,它可以捕捉到新出現(xiàn)的趨勢——例如,當(dāng)消費(fèi)者從昂貴的全國性品牌轉(zhuǎn)向更便宜的零售商品牌時,。

美聯(lián)儲官員特別關(guān)注一種被稱為核心通脹的價(jià)格類別,,該指數(shù)不包括波動較大的能源和食品成本,被認(rèn)為是衡量基本通脹的更好指標(biāo)。3月至4月,,核心價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲0.4%,,與上月持平,較12個月前上漲4.7%,。自12月首次觸及4.6%以來,,核心通脹率同比幾乎持平。

最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)出爐之際,,美聯(lián)儲官員就下一步舉措展開熱烈討論,。在過去14個月里,美聯(lián)儲已10次上調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率,。數(shù)位政策制定者表示,,他們傾向于在未來幾個月進(jìn)一步加息。但大多數(shù)美聯(lián)儲觀察人士預(yù)計(jì),,美聯(lián)儲將在6月中旬的下次會議上放棄再次加息——包括美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在內(nèi)的一些高層政策制定者似乎支持這一立場,。

鮑威爾上周表示,在將基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)至約5.1%的16年高點(diǎn)后,,美聯(lián)儲官員可以等待一段時間,,看看加息對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。加息可能需要一年或更長時間,,才能使就業(yè)市場和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)顯現(xiàn)明顯降溫跡象,。

美聯(lián)儲的最終目標(biāo)是提高消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的借貸成本,從而減少支出,,減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,,并抑制通脹。美聯(lián)儲加息導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率翻了一倍多,,并提高了汽車貸款,、信用卡貸款和商業(yè)貸款的成本。美聯(lián)儲加息也加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在今年某個時候開始,。

甚至一些可能支持6月不再繼續(xù)加息的官員,如美聯(lián)儲頗具影響力的理事會成員菲利普·杰弗遜(Philip Jefferson),,也表示他們對通脹放緩的幅度沒有比現(xiàn)在更大感到失望,。最近的通脹壓力在很大程度上反映了服務(wù)價(jià)格的持續(xù)上漲,包括餐飲,、酒店客房和汽車維修,。

通貨膨脹是數(shù)百萬美國人對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景感到悲觀的一大重要原因,盡管失業(yè)率處于半個世紀(jì)以來的最低點(diǎn)3.4%,,許多工作者的工資也得到了穩(wěn)定增長,。

然而,,美聯(lián)儲本周的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),平均而言,,通貨膨脹超過了工資增長,,使許多人的生活狀況變得更糟。去年年底,,略低于四分之三的美國人表示,,他們的財(cái)務(wù)狀況“尚可”或生活舒適。這一數(shù)字比前一年下降了5個百分點(diǎn),,是自2016年開始調(diào)查以來的最低水平之一,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

美國一項(xiàng)關(guān)鍵物價(jià)指標(biāo)4月份走高,消費(fèi)者支出出現(xiàn)反彈,,這表明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的通脹壓力仍然很大,。

美聯(lián)儲密切關(guān)注的通脹指標(biāo)顯示,,3月至4月,,物價(jià)上漲0.4%,遠(yuǎn)高于前一個月0.1%的漲幅,。根據(jù)政府周五的報(bào)告,,4月份物價(jià)同比上漲4.4%,高于3月份的4.2%,。同比數(shù)據(jù)較去年6月7%的峰值大幅下降,,但仍遠(yuǎn)高于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)。

盡管物價(jià)上漲,,但消費(fèi)者上個月的支出仍然保持強(qiáng)勁:3月至4月,,消費(fèi)者支出躍升了0.8%,為1月份以來的最大增幅,。

盡管人們長期以來一直預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來,,但周五的報(bào)告突出了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)驚人的彈性。即使物價(jià)持續(xù)上漲,,美國人,,至少是那些收入較高的人,顯然仍愿意消費(fèi),。推動美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要因素是消費(fèi)者支出,,而就業(yè)增長和工資上漲提振了消費(fèi)。

今年前三個月,,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩,,年增長率為1.3%,但預(yù)計(jì)今年第二季度(4-6月)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將提高至2%,。

周五公布的通脹指標(biāo)個人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格指數(shù)與政府更為知名的消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù)(CPI)是分開的,。美國政府本月早些時候公布,,4月份CPI較12個月前上漲4.9%。

自通脹飆升(疫情造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退后)以來,,個人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)往往比CPI顯示出更低的通脹水平,。部分原因是租金在CPI中的權(quán)重是個人消費(fèi)支出(PCE)的兩倍,而租金是最大的通脹驅(qū)動因素之一,。此外,,個人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)試圖反映通脹飆升時人們購物方式的變化。因此,,它可以捕捉到新出現(xiàn)的趨勢——例如,,當(dāng)消費(fèi)者從昂貴的全國性品牌轉(zhuǎn)向更便宜的零售商品牌時。

美聯(lián)儲官員特別關(guān)注一種被稱為核心通脹的價(jià)格類別,,該指數(shù)不包括波動較大的能源和食品成本,,被認(rèn)為是衡量基本通脹的更好指標(biāo)。3月至4月,,核心價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲0.4%,,與上月持平,較12個月前上漲4.7%,。自12月首次觸及4.6%以來,,核心通脹率同比幾乎持平。

最新通脹數(shù)據(jù)出爐之際,,美聯(lián)儲官員就下一步舉措展開熱烈討論,。在過去14個月里,美聯(lián)儲已10次上調(diào)關(guān)鍵利率,。數(shù)位政策制定者表示,,他們傾向于在未來幾個月進(jìn)一步加息。但大多數(shù)美聯(lián)儲觀察人士預(yù)計(jì),,美聯(lián)儲將在6月中旬的下次會議上放棄再次加息——包括美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在內(nèi)的一些高層政策制定者似乎支持這一立場,。

鮑威爾上周表示,在將基準(zhǔn)利率上調(diào)至約5.1%的16年高點(diǎn)后,,美聯(lián)儲官員可以等待一段時間,,看看加息對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。加息可能需要一年或更長時間,,才能使就業(yè)市場和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)顯現(xiàn)明顯降溫跡象,。

美聯(lián)儲的最終目標(biāo)是提高消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)的借貸成本,從而減少支出,,減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,,并抑制通脹。美聯(lián)儲加息導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率翻了一倍多,,并提高了汽車貸款,、信用卡貸款和商業(yè)貸款的成本,。美聯(lián)儲加息也加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將在今年某個時候開始,。

甚至一些可能支持6月不再繼續(xù)加息的官員,,如美聯(lián)儲頗具影響力的理事會成員菲利普·杰弗遜(Philip Jefferson),也表示他們對通脹放緩的幅度沒有比現(xiàn)在更大感到失望,。最近的通脹壓力在很大程度上反映了服務(wù)價(jià)格的持續(xù)上漲,,包括餐飲、酒店客房和汽車維修,。

通貨膨脹是數(shù)百萬美國人對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景感到悲觀的一大重要原因,,盡管失業(yè)率處于半個世紀(jì)以來的最低點(diǎn)3.4%,許多工作者的工資也得到了穩(wěn)定增長,。

然而,,美聯(lián)儲本周的一份報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),平均而言,,通貨膨脹超過了工資增長,,使許多人的生活狀況變得更糟。去年年底,,略低于四分之三的美國人表示,,他們的財(cái)務(wù)狀況“尚可”或生活舒適。這一數(shù)字比前一年下降了5個百分點(diǎn),,是自2016年開始調(diào)查以來的最低水平之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

A key index of U.S. prices ticked higher in April, and consumer spending rebounded, a sign that inflationary pressures in the economy remain high.

The index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, showed that prices rose 0.4% from March to April, much higher than the 0.1% rise the previous month. Measured year over year, prices were up 4.4% in April, up from 4.2% in March, according to Friday’s report from the government. The year-over-year figure is down sharply from a 7% peak last June but remains far above the Fed’s 2% target.

Consumers kept spending last month despite the price rise: Their spending jumped 0.8% from March to April, the biggest increase since January.

Despite longstanding predictions of a forthcoming recession, Friday’s report underscores the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience. Americans, at least those with higher incomes, are clearly still willing to spend even as prices have continued to rise. Consumer spending, which drives most of the U.S. economy, has been bolstered by solid job gains and pay increases.

The economy, which grew at a sluggish 1.3% annual rate in the first three months of the year, is projected to accelerate to a 2% pace in the current April-June quarter.

The inflation gauge that was issued Friday, called the personal consumption expenditures price index, is separate from the government’s better-known consumer price index. The government reported earlier this month that the CPI rose 4.9% in April from 12 months earlier.

Since inflation began surging after the pandemic recession, the PCE index has tended to show lower inflation than CPI. In part, that was because rents, which were among the biggest inflation drivers, carry twice the weight in the CPI that they do in the PCE. In addition, the PCE index seeks to account for changes in how people shop when inflation jumps. As a result, it can capture emerging trends — when, for example, consumers shift away from pricey national brands in favor of cheaper store brands.

Fed officials particularly watch a category of prices called core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs and is considered a better gauge of underlying inflation. Core prices rose 0.4% from March to April, the same as in the previous month, and 4.7% from 12 months earlier. The year-over-year core inflation figure has changed little since it first touched 4.6% in December.

The latest inflation figures arrive as Fed officials are noisily debating their next steps after having raised their key interest rate 10 times in the past 14 months. Several of the policymakers have said they favor raising rates even higher in the coming months. But most Fed watchers expect the central bank to forgo another hike at its next meeting in mid-June — a stance that some top policymakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, appear to support.

Powell said last week that after raising its benchmark rate to a 16-year high of about 5.1%, Fed officials can afford to wait and see how those increases have affected the economy. It can take a year or more for rate hikes to significantly slow the job market and the overall economy.

The Fed’s ultimate goal is to make borrowing costlier for consumers and businesses and thereby reduce spending, growth and inflation. Its rate increases have led to a more than doubling of mortgage rates and elevated the costs of auto loans, credit card borrowing and business loans. They have also heightened the risk of a recession, which most economists predict will begin sometime this year.

Even some officials who likely favor skipping a rate hike in June, like Philip Jefferson, a member of the Fed’s influential Board of Governors, have said they are disappointed that inflation hasn’t slowed more than it has. Much of the latest inflation pressure reflects persistently higher prices for services, including restaurant meals, hotel rooms and auto maintenance.

Inflation is a big reason why millions of Americans have expressed a gloomy outlook about the economy, even though the unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.4% and many workers have received solid pay gains.

Yet a Federal Reserve report this week found that, on average, inflation has outstripped those wage increases and left many people worse off. At the end of last year, just below three-quarters of Americans said they were “doing OK” financially or living comfortably. That marked a drop of 5 percentage points from the previous year and was among the lowest such levels measured since the survey began in 2016.

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