
2022年11月,,Roubini Macro Associates的首席執(zhí)行官努里埃爾·魯比尼接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)的觀點(diǎn),可謂是坐實(shí)了他“末日博士”的外號(hào),。魯比尼警告說(shuō),,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在因?yàn)椴粩嗌仙墓絺鶆?wù)、頑固不降的通貨膨脹,、激進(jìn)的加息以及其他一系列“巨大威脅”而面臨“一場(chǎng)另一個(gè)版本的大蕭條”,。
在長(zhǎng)達(dá)一個(gè)多小時(shí)的采訪中,有一小段關(guān)鍵的談話并未出現(xiàn)在最終發(fā)表的版本里,,但今天看來(lái)卻一語(yǔ)中的,。魯比尼警告道,如果某個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)出現(xiàn)了債務(wù)和盈利問(wèn)題,,這些問(wèn)題“可能演變成一場(chǎng)銀行業(yè)危機(jī)”,。
他的話很有先見(jiàn)之明:硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)于上周先后倒閉,。兩家銀行都和目前正在苦苦支撐的科技初創(chuàng)公司及加密生態(tài)系統(tǒng)緊密相關(guān)。盡管監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)在上周末已經(jīng)介入,,出手救助這兩家銀行的儲(chǔ)戶(hù),,但魯比尼仍然認(rèn)為銀行業(yè)危機(jī)遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)在3月12日宣布,,美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)將“全額保護(hù)(硅谷銀行和簽名銀行的)全部?jī)?chǔ)戶(hù),,無(wú)論此前有無(wú)投保”,,并在另一份聲明中以適用“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)例外條款”作為采取上述行動(dòng)的理由,。但魯比尼在3月13日接受《新聞周刊》(Newsweek)采訪時(shí)警告道,“全球蔓延”存在“自然滯后”,,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)不可能永遠(yuǎn)充當(dāng)救世主,。
只是地區(qū)性銀行的問(wèn)題?
魯比尼于3月13日表示,,硅谷銀行和簽名銀行的問(wèn)題可能會(huì)蔓延至儲(chǔ)戶(hù)規(guī)模較小,、證券價(jià)值縮水的美國(guó)其他地區(qū)性銀行。他同時(shí)也是紐約大學(xué)(New York University)斯特恩商學(xué)院(Stern School of Business)的名譽(yù)教授,。他指出,,如果這些銀行遭遇儲(chǔ)戶(hù)擠兌,從而不得不以當(dāng)前市價(jià)出售所持資產(chǎn),,將會(huì)是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難——就像硅谷和簽名銀行一樣,。他認(rèn)為:“擠兌可能會(huì)繼續(xù),危機(jī)還沒(méi)有結(jié)束,?!?/p>
魯比尼還說(shuō),他預(yù)計(jì)目前地區(qū)性銀行的問(wèn)題暫時(shí)不會(huì)蔓延到美國(guó)大型銀行或更廣泛的金融體系,,持這種觀點(diǎn)的并非只有他一個(gè)人,。投資研究公司New Constructs的首席執(zhí)行官戴維·特雷納在3月10日向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他認(rèn)為硅谷銀行的破產(chǎn)不會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)銀行業(yè)造成“蔓延性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,,“大銀行的存款基礎(chǔ)比硅谷銀行更加多元,,財(cái)務(wù)狀況也較為健康?!?/p>
部分專(zhuān)家稱(chēng),,一些大銀行實(shí)際上因?yàn)榈貐^(qū)性銀行出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題而從中受益,因?yàn)閮?chǔ)戶(hù)紛紛涌向更安全的機(jī)構(gòu),。以美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)為例,,在硅谷銀行和簽名銀行倒閉的過(guò)程里,吸收了超過(guò)150億美元的存款,。
但魯比尼于3月13日做出了另外一個(gè)有先見(jiàn)之明的預(yù)測(cè),,在這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)中,,全球銀行業(yè)的前景就沒(méi)有如此美麗了。他說(shuō),,隨著利率上抬,,一家大型歐洲銀行可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題。他好像又說(shuō)對(duì)了,。
一個(gè)可能引發(fā)全球“蔓延”的新威脅
3月15日,,瑞士一家銀行瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)在其最大股東沙特國(guó)家銀行(Saudi National bank)表示不再繼續(xù)注資后股價(jià)大跌逾20%。瑞信的問(wèn)題導(dǎo)致歐洲銀行股于3月13日大幅下挫,,歐洲斯托克銀行指數(shù)(Euro Stoxx Bank Index)大跌8.3%。這正是魯比尼此前擔(dān)心可能會(huì)發(fā)生的事情,,盡管他并未點(diǎn)名到底是哪家銀行,。
“歐洲至少有一家金融機(jī)構(gòu)長(zhǎng)期資本不足,在資本調(diào)整方面存在問(wèn)題,,可能有一些不良資產(chǎn),、一些長(zhǎng)期證券敞口和未實(shí)現(xiàn)虧損?!彼?月13日告訴《新聞周刊》:“如果這家機(jī)構(gòu)出了什么問(wèn)題……就將產(chǎn)生更重大的系統(tǒng)性影響——因?yàn)槲覀冋f(shuō)的是擁有數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元資產(chǎn)的機(jī)構(gòu),,而不是只有4,000億美元的硅谷銀行?!?/p>
瑞信早就面臨問(wèn)題,,那時(shí)硅谷銀行和簽名銀行還沒(méi)有倒閉。2022年最后一個(gè)季度,,該銀行客戶(hù)共計(jì)從其財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)中心取走價(jià)值1,190億美元的資產(chǎn),,而且因?yàn)閷?duì)沖基金Archegos在2022年倒閉,高管們被迫計(jì)入了與該基金相關(guān)的55億美元虧損?,F(xiàn)在,,據(jù)魯比尼說(shuō),在其第二大主要投資者,、Harris Associates的戴維·赫羅在本月早些時(shí)候出售了所持股份之后,,瑞信已經(jīng)處于失敗的邊緣。
“問(wèn)題在于,,按照某些標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,瑞信可能大而不倒,但也同樣因?yàn)樘蠖炔涣?。目前還不清楚……聯(lián)邦系統(tǒng)是否有足夠的資源來(lái)實(shí)施救助,。”這位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在3月15日向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,,如果瑞信沒(méi)有獲得資金注入,,“糟糕的事情就會(huì)發(fā)生”,。
在魯比尼發(fā)表上述言論之前,瑞士信貸的首席執(zhí)行官烏爾里?!た茽柤{在3月14日表示,,瑞士信貸的情況與硅谷銀行非常不同,“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)更高,,而且有實(shí)質(zhì)性區(qū)別”,。他還指出,在美國(guó)地區(qū)性銀行出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題之際,,該行出現(xiàn)了客戶(hù)流入,。瑞信的董事長(zhǎng)阿克塞爾·萊曼于3月15日向彭博社表示,該行不需要任何政府援助就能夠繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng),。
但在2022年11月接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),,魯比尼警告稱(chēng),如果大銀行內(nèi)爆引發(fā)銀行業(yè)危機(jī),,可能就會(huì)蔓延至政府部門(mén)和更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,。
“銀行業(yè)危機(jī)會(huì)在銀行間形成惡性循環(huán),可能演變成主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī),?!彼f(shuō),“問(wèn)題是,,你無(wú)法輕易地將某個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)與另一個(gè)部門(mén)隔離開(kāi),,它們都是相互關(guān)聯(lián)的?!?/p>
魯比尼長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直認(rèn)為,,深度衰退是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)最有可能面臨的結(jié)局。他在本周表示,,最近的銀行問(wèn)題意味著,,“硬著陸”現(xiàn)在也“顯然不可避免”。
“維持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定,、抗擊通脹需要大幅提高政策利率,。但現(xiàn)在,金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要求降低政策利率,。所以我們將面臨一場(chǎng)危機(jī),。”他于3月15日在推特(Twitter)上寫(xiě)道,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
2022年11月,,Roubini Macro Associates的首席執(zhí)行官努里埃爾·魯比尼接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)的觀點(diǎn),可謂是坐實(shí)了他“末日博士”的外號(hào)。魯比尼警告說(shuō),,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正在因?yàn)椴粩嗌仙墓絺鶆?wù),、頑固不降的通貨膨脹、激進(jìn)的加息以及其他一系列“巨大威脅”而面臨“一場(chǎng)另一個(gè)版本的大蕭條”,。
在長(zhǎng)達(dá)一個(gè)多小時(shí)的采訪中,,有一小段關(guān)鍵的談話并未出現(xiàn)在最終發(fā)表的版本里,但今天看來(lái)卻一語(yǔ)中的,。魯比尼警告道,,如果某個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)出現(xiàn)了債務(wù)和盈利問(wèn)題,這些問(wèn)題“可能演變成一場(chǎng)銀行業(yè)危機(jī)”,。
他的話很有先見(jiàn)之明:硅谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)和簽名銀行(Signature Bank)于上周先后倒閉,。兩家銀行都和目前正在苦苦支撐的科技初創(chuàng)公司及加密生態(tài)系統(tǒng)緊密相關(guān)。盡管監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)在上周末已經(jīng)介入,,出手救助這兩家銀行的儲(chǔ)戶(hù),,但魯比尼仍然認(rèn)為銀行業(yè)危機(jī)遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)在3月12日宣布,,美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)將“全額保護(hù)(硅谷銀行和簽名銀行的)全部?jī)?chǔ)戶(hù),無(wú)論此前有無(wú)投?!?,并在另一份聲明中以適用“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)例外條款”作為采取上述行動(dòng)的理由。但魯比尼在3月13日接受《新聞周刊》(Newsweek)采訪時(shí)警告道,,“全球蔓延”存在“自然滯后”,,監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)不可能永遠(yuǎn)充當(dāng)救世主。
只是地區(qū)性銀行的問(wèn)題,?
魯比尼于3月13日表示,,硅谷銀行和簽名銀行的問(wèn)題可能會(huì)蔓延至儲(chǔ)戶(hù)規(guī)模較小、證券價(jià)值縮水的美國(guó)其他地區(qū)性銀行,。他同時(shí)也是紐約大學(xué)(New York University)斯特恩商學(xué)院(Stern School of Business)的名譽(yù)教授,。他指出,如果這些銀行遭遇儲(chǔ)戶(hù)擠兌,,從而不得不以當(dāng)前市價(jià)出售所持資產(chǎn),,將會(huì)是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難——就像硅谷和簽名銀行一樣。他認(rèn)為:“擠兌可能會(huì)繼續(xù),,危機(jī)還沒(méi)有結(jié)束,。”
魯比尼還說(shuō),,他預(yù)計(jì)目前地區(qū)性銀行的問(wèn)題暫時(shí)不會(huì)蔓延到美國(guó)大型銀行或更廣泛的金融體系,,持這種觀點(diǎn)的并非只有他一個(gè)人。投資研究公司New Constructs的首席執(zhí)行官戴維·特雷納在3月10日向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,他認(rèn)為硅谷銀行的破產(chǎn)不會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)銀行業(yè)造成“蔓延性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”,,“大銀行的存款基礎(chǔ)比硅谷銀行更加多元,,財(cái)務(wù)狀況也較為健康?!?/p>
部分專(zhuān)家稱(chēng),,一些大銀行實(shí)際上因?yàn)榈貐^(qū)性銀行出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題而從中受益,因?yàn)閮?chǔ)戶(hù)紛紛涌向更安全的機(jī)構(gòu),。以美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)為例,,在硅谷銀行和簽名銀行倒閉的過(guò)程里,吸收了超過(guò)150億美元的存款,。
但魯比尼于3月13日做出了另外一個(gè)有先見(jiàn)之明的預(yù)測(cè),,在這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)中,全球銀行業(yè)的前景就沒(méi)有如此美麗了,。他說(shuō),,隨著利率上抬,一家大型歐洲銀行可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,。他好像又說(shuō)對(duì)了,。
一個(gè)可能引發(fā)全球“蔓延”的新威脅
3月15日,瑞士一家銀行瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)在其最大股東沙特國(guó)家銀行(Saudi National bank)表示不再繼續(xù)注資后股價(jià)大跌逾20%,。瑞信的問(wèn)題導(dǎo)致歐洲銀行股于3月13日大幅下挫,,歐洲斯托克銀行指數(shù)(Euro Stoxx Bank Index)大跌8.3%。這正是魯比尼此前擔(dān)心可能會(huì)發(fā)生的事情,,盡管他并未點(diǎn)名到底是哪家銀行,。
“歐洲至少有一家金融機(jī)構(gòu)長(zhǎng)期資本不足,在資本調(diào)整方面存在問(wèn)題,,可能有一些不良資產(chǎn),、一些長(zhǎng)期證券敞口和未實(shí)現(xiàn)虧損?!彼?月13日告訴《新聞周刊》:“如果這家機(jī)構(gòu)出了什么問(wèn)題……就將產(chǎn)生更重大的系統(tǒng)性影響——因?yàn)槲覀冋f(shuō)的是擁有數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元資產(chǎn)的機(jī)構(gòu),,而不是只有4,000億美元的硅谷銀行?!?/p>
瑞信早就面臨問(wèn)題,,那時(shí)硅谷銀行和簽名銀行還沒(méi)有倒閉。2022年最后一個(gè)季度,,該銀行客戶(hù)共計(jì)從其財(cái)富管理業(yè)務(wù)利潤(rùn)中心取走價(jià)值1,190億美元的資產(chǎn),,而且因?yàn)閷?duì)沖基金Archegos在2022年倒閉,高管們被迫計(jì)入了與該基金相關(guān)的55億美元虧損?,F(xiàn)在,,據(jù)魯比尼說(shuō),在其第二大主要投資者、Harris Associates的戴維·赫羅在本月早些時(shí)候出售了所持股份之后,,瑞信已經(jīng)處于失敗的邊緣,。
“問(wèn)題在于,按照某些標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,瑞信可能大而不倒,,但也同樣因?yàn)樘蠖炔涣恕D壳斑€不清楚……聯(lián)邦系統(tǒng)是否有足夠的資源來(lái)實(shí)施救助,?!边@位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在3月15日向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,如果瑞信沒(méi)有獲得資金注入,,“糟糕的事情就會(huì)發(fā)生”,。
在魯比尼發(fā)表上述言論之前,瑞士信貸的首席執(zhí)行官烏爾里?!た茽柤{在3月14日表示,,瑞士信貸的情況與硅谷銀行非常不同,“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)更高,,而且有實(shí)質(zhì)性區(qū)別”,。他還指出,在美國(guó)地區(qū)性銀行出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題之際,,該行出現(xiàn)了客戶(hù)流入,。瑞信的董事長(zhǎng)阿克塞爾·萊曼于3月15日向彭博社表示,該行不需要任何政府援助就能夠繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng),。
但在2022年11月接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí),魯比尼警告稱(chēng),,如果大銀行內(nèi)爆引發(fā)銀行業(yè)危機(jī),,可能就會(huì)蔓延至政府部門(mén)和更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域。
“銀行業(yè)危機(jī)會(huì)在銀行間形成惡性循環(huán),,可能演變成主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī),。”他說(shuō),,“問(wèn)題是,,你無(wú)法輕易地將某個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)與另一個(gè)部門(mén)隔離開(kāi),它們都是相互關(guān)聯(lián)的,?!?/p>
魯比尼長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直認(rèn)為,深度衰退是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)最有可能面臨的結(jié)局,。他在本周表示,,最近的銀行問(wèn)題意味著,“硬著陸”現(xiàn)在也“顯然不可避免”。
“維持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定,、抗擊通脹需要大幅提高政策利率,。但現(xiàn)在,金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要求降低政策利率,。所以我們將面臨一場(chǎng)危機(jī),。”他于3月15日在推特(Twitter)上寫(xiě)道,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
In November, Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, lived up to his nickname in an interview with Fortune. “Dr. Doom” warned that the global economy was facing a “variant of another Great Depression” due to rising public and private debts, stubborn inflation, aggressive interest rate hikes, and a number of other “mega threats.”
A key excerpt from the more than hour-long interview that didn’t make the final edit seems relevant today. Roubini warned that when one sector of the economy has problems with debt and profitability, those problems “can morph into a banking crisis.”
After Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank—which were both heavily exposed to the now struggling tech startup and crypto ecosystems—collapsed last week, his words seem prescient. And despite regulators stepping in to save depositors at both banks over the weekend, Roubini still believes the banking crisis is far from over.
The Federal Reserve announced on March 12 that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will “fully protect all depositors, both insured and uninsured” at SVB and Signature, citing the “systemic risk exception” as the reason for their actions in a separate statement. But Roubini warned in a Newsweek interview on March 13 that there is a “natural lag” to “global contagion,” and regulators can’t always save the day.
Just a regional bank issue?
Roubini, who is also a professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business, said on March 13 that SVB and Signature’s problems could spread to U.S. regional banks that have smaller depositor bases and securities that have lost value. He noted that if these banks are forced to sell their holdings at the current market value as depositors request their money back, it could be a disaster—just like it was for SVB and Signature. “The run may continue,” he argued. “The crisis is not over.”
Roubini added that he doesn’t foresee regional banks’ issues spreading to large U.S. banks or the wider financial system for now, however, and he isn’t alone in this view. David Trainer, the CEO of the investment research firm New Constructs, told?Fortune on March 10 that he doesn’t see “contagion risk” for the entire banking sector after SVB’s collapse, adding that the “deposit base from the major banks is much more diversified than SVB and the big banks are in good financial health.”
A number of experts have argued that some larger banks are actually benefiting from regional bank issues as depositors flock to safer pastures. Bank of America, for example, raked in over $15 billion in deposits amid SVB and Signature’s downfall.
But Roubini made another prescient prediction on March 13 that doesn’t paint such a rosy picture for banks globally. A large European bank may face issues as interest rates rise, he said. And again, it looks like he was right.
A new threat and that risks global “contagion”
On March 15, shares of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse tanked more than 20% after its largest shareholder—the Saudi National Bank—said it wouldn’t inject more money into the bank. Credit Suisse’s issues sent shares of European banks down sharply on March 15, with the Euro Stoxx Bank Index dropping 8.3%. It’s exactly what Roubini feared might happen, although he played coy about the exact bank he was talking about.
“There is at least one financial institution in Europe that has been historically undercapitalized, have had problems of recapitalizing, might have some bad assets, some exposures to long-term securities and unrealized losses,” he told Newsweek on March 13. “If something were to happen with this institution…that will be much more systemically important—we’re speaking about institutions with trillions of dollars of assets, not $400 billion like SVB.”
Credit Suisse faced issues long before the collapse of SVB and Signature. Clients pulled $119 billion in assets from the bank’s wealth management business profit center during the final quarter in 2022, and execs were forced to book a $5.5 billion loss tied to the hedge fund Archegos, which collapsed last year. Now, after a second major investor, Harris Associates’ David Herro, sold his shares earlier this month, Credit Suisse is on the verge of failure, according to Roubini.
“The problem is that Credit Suisse, by some standards, might be too big to fail, but also too big to be saved. It’s not clear that…the Federal system has enough resources to engineer a bail out,” the economist told Bloomberg on March 15, adding that if Credit Suisse doesn’t get an infusion of capital from somewhere “bad things can happen.”
Roubini’s comments come after Credit Suisse’s CEO, Ulrich Koerner, said on March 14 that his bank is in a very different situation than SVB and has “materially different and higher standards.” He also noted that the bank saw client inflows amid U.S. regional banks’ problems. And Credit Suisse’s chairman, Axel Lehmann, told Bloomberg on March 15 the bank wouldn’t need any government assistance to continue operating.
But In his November interview with Fortune, Roubini warned that if we get a banking crisis from a big bank implosion, it could spread to governments and the wider economy.
“A banking crisis can morph into a debt crisis for the sovereign, in a doom loop between the banks,” he said. “The problem is you cannot easily isolate one sector of the economy from another, they’re all interconnected.”
Roubini, who has long held that a deep recession is the most likely outcome for the global economy, said this week that banks’ recent issues mean a “hard landing” is now “clearly unavoidable” as well.
“Economic stability and fighting inflation require raising policy rates much higher. But now financial stability risks require lower policy rates. So we will get a crisis,” he said in a March 15 tweet.