大空頭警告：特斯拉好日子一去不復(fù)返了
CHRISTIAAN HETZNER
2023-02-02
圖片來(lái)源：DAVID ORREL—CNBC/NBCU PHOTO BANK/NBCUNIVERSAL/GETTY IMAGES
知名做空者吉姆·查諾斯20年前曾在安然（Enron）破產(chǎn)時(shí)獲利豐厚。他向看好特斯拉的投資者免費(fèi)提供了一條建議：好日子將一去不復(fù)返,。
查諾斯周一對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道（CNBC）表示：“我認(rèn)為特斯拉的利潤(rùn)將面臨壓力，而且這將是一種相對(duì)永久的變化,?！?/p>
向主經(jīng)紀(jì)人付費(fèi)借用不歸你所有的股票進(jìn)行做空交易，以期從預(yù)計(jì)的股價(jià)下跌中獲利,，這個(gè)職業(yè)不適合膽小的人,。
由于這些投機(jī)者需要承擔(dān)過(guò)多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此他們的觀點(diǎn)值得一聽(tīng),，只是因?yàn)榕c僅做多的投資者相比,，他們的信念必須更加堅(jiān)定。
查諾斯要告訴特斯拉投資者的是,，埃隆·馬斯克的公司目前的表現(xiàn)與其他主流汽車廠商一樣,，正在增加銷量，希望通過(guò)降價(jià)吸引更多新購(gòu)車人,。
的確有許多汽車行業(yè)分析師認(rèn)為,，與其他同行相比，特斯拉能夠承受住價(jià)格戰(zhàn)所導(dǎo)致的電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)衰退的影響,。許多汽車廠商每賣出一輛電動(dòng)汽車都在虧損,。
查諾斯似乎也認(rèn)同這種看法，他認(rèn)為預(yù)測(cè)特斯拉的估值將高于其他汽車廠商,，這是合理的,。但歸根結(jié)底，特斯拉的股票依舊是周期性的汽車股,，不要將其與科技股混為一談,。
因此，雖然它不應(yīng)該像傳統(tǒng)汽車廠商一樣有三至五倍的毛利潤(rùn),，但查諾斯認(rèn)為,，特斯拉的業(yè)務(wù)的市盈率也不會(huì)高達(dá)20倍甚至更高。
查諾斯判斷：“估值差異是巨大的,?！彼J(rèn)為，按照目前的價(jià)格,，比亞迪和蔚來(lái)汽車（Nio）等成長(zhǎng)股,，或者保時(shí)捷（Porsche）和法拉利（Ferrari）等豪車品牌,，對(duì)投資者而言都是更好的選擇。
他繼續(xù)說(shuō)道：“到某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn),，估值差異會(huì)顯著縮小?，F(xiàn)在它[價(jià)值]40或者60美元？我不知道,。我們拭目以待,，但我認(rèn)為它不值170美元?！?/p>
中國(guó)市場(chǎng)疲軟是特斯拉真正的威脅
現(xiàn)在查諾斯認(rèn)為,，電動(dòng)汽車買家實(shí)際上喜歡有更多選擇，他們不再局限于在不同型號(hào)的特斯拉之間選擇,，這個(gè)月特斯拉降價(jià)事實(shí)上也體現(xiàn)了這一點(diǎn),。
他說(shuō)道：“他的[汽車業(yè)務(wù)毛]利潤(rùn)率最高時(shí)達(dá)到接近30%，而現(xiàn)在我們認(rèn)為,，毛利潤(rùn)率正在接近15%至20%的區(qū)間,，這正是特斯拉在中國(guó)開(kāi)設(shè)工廠之前的水平?！?/p>
投資者一直擔(dān)心,，降低平均售價(jià)會(huì)嚴(yán)重?cái)偙∑嚸麧?rùn)率，但特斯拉財(cái)務(wù)主管扎克·基爾科恩卻在上周三表示,，毛利潤(rùn)率應(yīng)該依舊高于20%,。
查諾斯并不相信這種說(shuō)法。
他說(shuō)道：“所有人都忘了,，到2019年,，特斯拉在美國(guó)生產(chǎn)汽車一直虧損。直到特斯拉在上海開(kāi)設(shè)工廠并增加產(chǎn)量,，其利潤(rùn)率才大幅上漲,。而中國(guó)目前是他們最疲軟的市場(chǎng)?！?/p>
查諾斯估計(jì),，特斯拉的每股收益不止將下降至遠(yuǎn)低于華爾街目前預(yù)測(cè)的4.40美元，還會(huì)低于2022年達(dá)到的4美元大關(guān)：“我們認(rèn)為,，今年特斯拉每股收益將繼續(xù)下跌到2美元,。”
但從查諾斯的意見(jiàn)中,，特斯拉股東可以看到一個(gè)利好信號(hào)：在投資通用電氣（General Electric）或紐約市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司SL Green等其他估值過(guò)高的股票時(shí),，他做空投資的信念更加堅(jiān)定。
查諾斯表示，他對(duì)特斯拉股票的做空投資在他的投資組合中所占的比重通常在0.5%至5%之間,，他的投資組合中還有其他42只股票,，包括Coinbase和AMC的普通股。
特斯拉已經(jīng)解散了其媒體部門,。周二,，特斯拉股價(jià)盤中上漲近3.3%，達(dá)到每股172.16美元,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進(jìn)龍
審校：汪皓
知名做空者吉姆·查諾斯20年前曾在安然（Enron）破產(chǎn)時(shí)獲利豐厚,。他向看好特斯拉的投資者免費(fèi)提供了一條建議：好日子將一去不復(fù)返。
查諾斯周一對(duì)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道（CNBC）表示：“我認(rèn)為特斯拉的利潤(rùn)將面臨壓力,，而且這將是一種相對(duì)永久的變化,。”
向主經(jīng)紀(jì)人付費(fèi)借用不歸你所有的股票進(jìn)行做空交易,，以期從預(yù)計(jì)的股價(jià)下跌中獲利，這個(gè)職業(yè)不適合膽小的人,。
由于這些投機(jī)者需要承擔(dān)過(guò)多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，因此他們的觀點(diǎn)值得一聽(tīng)，只是因?yàn)榕c僅做多的投資者相比,，他們的信念必須更加堅(jiān)定,。
查諾斯要告訴特斯拉投資者的是，埃隆·馬斯克的公司目前的表現(xiàn)與其他主流汽車廠商一樣,，正在增加銷量,，希望通過(guò)降價(jià)吸引更多新購(gòu)車人。
的確有許多汽車行業(yè)分析師認(rèn)為,，與其他同行相比,，特斯拉能夠承受住價(jià)格戰(zhàn)所導(dǎo)致的電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)衰退的影響。許多汽車廠商每賣出一輛電動(dòng)汽車都在虧損,。
查諾斯似乎也認(rèn)同這種看法,，他認(rèn)為預(yù)測(cè)特斯拉的估值將高于其他汽車廠商，這是合理的,。但歸根結(jié)底,，特斯拉的股票依舊是周期性的汽車股，不要將其與科技股混為一談,。
因此,，雖然它不應(yīng)該像傳統(tǒng)汽車廠商一樣有三至五倍的毛利潤(rùn)，但查諾斯認(rèn)為,，特斯拉的業(yè)務(wù)的市盈率也不會(huì)高達(dá)20倍甚至更高,。
查諾斯判斷：“估值差異是巨大的。”他認(rèn)為,，按照目前的價(jià)格,，比亞迪和蔚來(lái)汽車（Nio）等成長(zhǎng)股，或者保時(shí)捷（Porsche）和法拉利（Ferrari）等豪車品牌,，對(duì)投資者而言都是更好的選擇,。
他繼續(xù)說(shuō)道：“到某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)，估值差異會(huì)顯著縮小?，F(xiàn)在它[價(jià)值]40或者60美元,？我不知道。我們拭目以待,，但我認(rèn)為它不值170美元,。”
中國(guó)市場(chǎng)疲軟是特斯拉真正的威脅
現(xiàn)在查諾斯認(rèn)為,，電動(dòng)汽車買家實(shí)際上喜歡有更多選擇,，他們不再局限于在不同型號(hào)的特斯拉之間選擇，這個(gè)月特斯拉降價(jià)事實(shí)上也體現(xiàn)了這一點(diǎn),。
他說(shuō)道：“他的[汽車業(yè)務(wù)毛]利潤(rùn)率最高時(shí)達(dá)到接近30%,，而現(xiàn)在我們認(rèn)為，毛利潤(rùn)率正在接近15%至20%的區(qū)間,，這正是特斯拉在中國(guó)開(kāi)設(shè)工廠之前的水平,。”
投資者一直擔(dān)心,，降低平均售價(jià)會(huì)嚴(yán)重?cái)偙∑嚸麧?rùn)率,，但特斯拉財(cái)務(wù)主管扎克·基爾科恩卻在上周三表示，毛利潤(rùn)率應(yīng)該依舊高于20%,。
查諾斯并不相信這種說(shuō)法,。
他說(shuō)道：“所有人都忘了，到2019年,，特斯拉在美國(guó)生產(chǎn)汽車一直虧損,。直到特斯拉在上海開(kāi)設(shè)工廠并增加產(chǎn)量，其利潤(rùn)率才大幅上漲,。而中國(guó)目前是他們最疲軟的市場(chǎng),。”
查諾斯估計(jì),，特斯拉的每股收益不止將下降至遠(yuǎn)低于華爾街目前預(yù)測(cè)的4.40美元,，還會(huì)低于2022年達(dá)到的4美元大關(guān)：“我們認(rèn)為，今年特斯拉每股收益將繼續(xù)下跌到2美元,?！?/p>
但從查諾斯的意見(jiàn)中,，特斯拉股東可以看到一個(gè)利好信號(hào)：在投資通用電氣（General Electric）或紐約市商業(yè)地產(chǎn)公司SL Green等其他估值過(guò)高的股票時(shí)，他做空投資的信念更加堅(jiān)定,。
查諾斯表示,，他對(duì)特斯拉股票的做空投資在他的投資組合中所占的比重通常在0.5%至5%之間，他的投資組合中還有其他42只股票,，包括Coinbase和AMC的普通股,。
特斯拉已經(jīng)解散了其媒體部門。周二,，特斯拉股價(jià)盤中上漲近3.3%,，達(dá)到每股172.16美元。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進(jìn)龍
審校：汪皓
Jim Chanos, the famed short-seller who profited from the collapse of Enron a good 20 years ago, is handing out free advice to Tesla bulls: The good times are over, for good.
“I think their profits are going to be under pressure, and I think it’s going to be relatively permanent,” Chanos told CNBC on Monday.
Borrowing shares you don’t own from a prime broker at a fee to sell a stock short in the expectation of profiting from its expected decline is not a profession for the faint of heart.
Given the risks are unevenly stacked against such speculators, it’s worth listening to their arguments simply because their conviction must be that much stronger compared with long-only investors.
And what Chanos is telling Tesla shareholders is that Elon Musk’s company is currently behaving like any mass-market car company pushing volumes into the market and hoping price cuts can lure incremental new buyers.
Granted a number of automotive industry analysts believe Tesla can weather the EV shakeout from a price war better than some of its industry peers, many of whom may already be losing money on each electric vehicle sold.
Chanos even seems to agree with that sentiment, arguing it’s fair to expect Tesla to be valued at a premium to other automakers. But ultimately it’s still just another cyclical car stock, not to be confused with a tech stock.
So while it does not deserve to trade at three to five times gross profit like a conventional automaker, he believes it does not have any business exchanging hands at a lofty multiple of 20 or more.
“The magnitude of the valuation discrepancy is enormous,” Chanos judged, arguing other growth stocks like BYD and Nio, or luxury carmakers such as Porsche and Ferrari, were a better deal for investors at current prices.
“At some point that is going to close dramatically. Now, is it [worth] $40, $60? I don’t know,” he continued. “We’ll have to see, but I don’t think it’s $170.”
Tesla’s weakness in China is the real threat
That is especially true now that Chanos believes EV buyers actually enjoy a choice and no longer are limited to choosing between various versions of a Tesla, something indeed reflected by this month’s price cuts.
“His [automotive gross] margins, which peaked out in the high 20s, are now heading we think into the high teens, where they were before they opened China,” he said.
Investors had been concerned lower average selling prices would heavily dilute automotive gross margins, but finance chief Zach Kirkhorn insisted last Wednesday they should remain above 20.
Chanos is not convinced.
“Everybody forgets Tesla lost money through 2019 building cars in the United States. It wasn’t until they opened Shanghai and that ramped in a major way that their margins took off,” he said, “and China right now is their weakest market.”
In his estimation that translates to earnings dropping not only well below the $4.40 per share currently forecast by Wall Street, but also the $4 mark achieved in 2022: “We think the number has a two in front of it this year.”
But there is one bullish signal Tesla shareholders can take away from Chanos’s comments: His bearish investment conviction is far greater when it comes to other overvalued stocks like General Electric or New York City commercial real estate landlord SL Green.
Chanos described the weighting of his short position in Tesla as somewhere in the middle of his typical range of 0.5% to 5% of his portfolio nestled alongside 42 other names including Coinbase and AMC common stock.
Tesla, which disbanded its press department, rose nearly 3.3% at $172.16 per share in trading on Tuesday.
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