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新冠疫情從這三方面永久改變了供應鏈

在新冠疫情期間沒有遭遇破產(chǎn)的許多公司,,一直在重新思考它們的供應鏈,。

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飛行員戴維·帕森斯與11歲的阿圖羅·門多薩(右)飛過美國加利福尼亞州長灘的港口上空,。圖片來源:SCOTT VARLEY/DIGITAL FIRST MEDIA/TORRANCE DAILY BREEZE VIA GETTY IMAGES

新冠疫情在三年前爆發(fā)后,現(xiàn)代公司賴以生存的全球供應鏈陷入混亂,。這種新型呼吸道疾病的廣泛傳播以及各國為減緩病毒傳播而采取的諸多措施,,導致從廁紙到處方藥再到冰箱和半導體,各種產(chǎn)品紛紛缺貨,。即使到今天,,零售商們依舊無法保證某些產(chǎn)品的庫存充足,例如泰諾(Tylenol)和雞蛋等日常用品,。供應鏈在整體上依舊面臨巨大的壓力,。

供應短缺、延誤和供應鏈阻塞可能影響公司的收入,,因此在新冠疫情期間沒有遭遇破產(chǎn)的許多公司,,一直在重新思考它們的供應鏈,并采取改革措施,,希望提高供應鏈的韌性,。

作為供應鏈專家,我發(fā)現(xiàn)公司對供應鏈的管理方式主要發(fā)生了三個方面的轉(zhuǎn)變,,而這些變化將對消費者和公司產(chǎn)生重大的影響,。

1. 將供應鏈遷回本國

全球化供應鏈的主要缺點之一是,供應鏈更容易受到不受公司控制的問題影響,,比如一家關鍵供應商遭遇地震襲擊,,或者封城導致工廠停工等。

因此,,各行各業(yè)的公司都在努力將供應商和生產(chǎn)設施轉(zhuǎn)移到距離本國更近的地區(qū),,或者在地理上分布到不同地區(qū),以免過度依賴一個國家或地區(qū),。這樣做的目的是保證公司能夠承受供應鏈中斷的影響,,并保證業(yè)務的連續(xù)性。

將生產(chǎn)和制造業(yè)務從海外工廠轉(zhuǎn)移回國內(nèi)的過程又被稱為“制造業(yè)回流”,。最近幾年,,制造業(yè)回流的步伐大幅加快。2022年年初開展的一項調(diào)查顯示,,歐洲和美國超過60%的制造企業(yè)預計在未來三年,,將有部分亞洲制造業(yè)務回流,。

最近一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),2022年,,美國交通運輸和制造業(yè)回流創(chuàng)造了350,000個就業(yè)崗位,,較前一年增長了25%。

這一趨勢不僅得到了政府的補貼,,也獲得了零售商的支持,。全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪(Walmart)承諾幫助供應商回流,未來十年對美國制造產(chǎn)品的采購額將增加3,500億美元,。在英國,,對750家小公司的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),五分之二的公司正在考慮國內(nèi)制造商,,以避免新冠疫情造成的供應鏈中斷和高貨運成本,。

與此同時,一些公司正在努力實現(xiàn)供應來源多元化,,通常是從中國轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地區(qū),,其中印度和越南是熱門目的地。

例如,,美國蘋果公司(Apple)最近開始在印度生產(chǎn)部分型號的手機,。蘋果98%的iPhone手機在中國生產(chǎn)。此外,,蘋果最大的供應商富士康(Foxconn)已經(jīng)同意擴大在越南的生產(chǎn)業(yè)務,。自2022年8月以來,美國在中國的制造業(yè)訂單整體減少了21%,。

歐洲汽車廠商沃爾沃(Volvo)在2022年7月宣布,,計劃在斯洛伐克建立工廠,這是該公司60年來在歐洲建立的第一家工廠,。美國,、墨西哥和加拿大的領導人正在舉行會面,討論鼓勵當?shù)赝顿Y的舉措,,這些措施有望促進制造業(yè)回流,。

2. 增加技術投資

新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初暴露出的最嚴重的問題之一是,由于技術水平低下,,公司通常不知道供應商的狀況,。比如,,在新冠疫情之前,,超過50%的公司與所有供應商從未進行過溝通,或者不清楚供應商的具體位置,,這導致公司很難預測供應短缺情況,。

公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)意識到或者在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之后就認識到,,可以掌握供應鏈的實際狀況,對避免和適應供應鏈中斷至關重要,。而要想做到這一點,,現(xiàn)代數(shù)字技術是關鍵。

其中包括采用先進軟件與供應商進行更有效的溝通,,利用云計算實現(xiàn)高效數(shù)據(jù)存儲,,使用人工智能工具制定更合理的決策,利用機器人實現(xiàn)流程自動化等,。戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司Hackett Group的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,執(zhí)行這些新技術是2022年全球公司的首要任務。

3. 從“準時制生產(chǎn)”向“保障制生產(chǎn)”轉(zhuǎn)變

最近數(shù)十年,,供應鏈領域的一個重要進步是一種日本管理理念——“準時制生產(chǎn)”,。

雖然這種管理理念的本質(zhì)是減少浪費,但公司卻將其理解成持有低庫存甚至零庫存,。這意味著盡可能減少倉庫存貨,,以最大程度降低存儲成本,提高效率,,從而獲得更高的利潤,。在沒有發(fā)生供應鏈中斷的情況下,這種系統(tǒng)是有效的,。

然而,,執(zhí)行準時制生產(chǎn)的公司,即使發(fā)生小規(guī)模的供應鏈中斷,,也容易受到影響,。公司的超精益供應鏈意味著,新冠疫情以及其他原因?qū)е碌墓溨袛啾粐乐胤糯?,使得即便一個小波瀾也可能演變成大問題,。

現(xiàn)在擔心供應短缺的公司開始增加庫存。自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,,許多公司從“準時制生產(chǎn)”轉(zhuǎn)向了“保障制生產(chǎn)”模式,。雖然增加庫存能夠降低公司遭遇供應短缺的可能性,但這樣做成本更高,,因為公司會持有大量過剩庫存,,而且產(chǎn)品在賣掉之前可能已經(jīng)過時。

但與其他趨勢一樣,,這種趨勢不太可能在短期內(nèi)發(fā)生改變,,盡管公司將因此承擔更高成本。換言之,公司已經(jīng)認識到,,貨架空置的成本高于一定程度的效率低下的成本,。在大多數(shù)情況下,這些成本會以漲價的形式轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費者,,這對備受通脹之苦的消費者而言或許不是好消息,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

本文是“2023年全球經(jīng)濟”(Global Economy 2023)的一部分,這是我們關于未來一年世界面臨的挑戰(zhàn)的系列文章,。

本文作者納達·R·桑德斯(Nada R. Sanders)是美國東北大學(Northeastern University)供應鏈管理專業(yè)特聘教授,。

本文已獲知識共享(Creative Commons)組織的許可,轉(zhuǎn)載自The Conversation網(wǎng)站,。

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

新冠疫情在三年前爆發(fā)后,,現(xiàn)代公司賴以生存的全球供應鏈陷入混亂。這種新型呼吸道疾病的廣泛傳播以及各國為減緩病毒傳播而采取的諸多措施,,導致從廁紙到處方藥再到冰箱和半導體,,各種產(chǎn)品紛紛缺貨。即使到今天,,零售商們依舊無法保證某些產(chǎn)品的庫存充足,,例如泰諾(Tylenol)和雞蛋等日常用品。供應鏈在整體上依舊面臨巨大的壓力,。

供應短缺,、延誤和供應鏈阻塞可能影響公司的收入,因此在新冠疫情期間沒有遭遇破產(chǎn)的許多公司,,一直在重新思考它們的供應鏈,,并采取改革措施,希望提高供應鏈的韌性,。

作為供應鏈專家,,我發(fā)現(xiàn)公司對供應鏈的管理方式主要發(fā)生了三個方面的轉(zhuǎn)變,而這些變化將對消費者和公司產(chǎn)生重大的影響,。

1. 將供應鏈遷回本國

全球化供應鏈的主要缺點之一是,,供應鏈更容易受到不受公司控制的問題影響,比如一家關鍵供應商遭遇地震襲擊,,或者封城導致工廠停工等,。

因此,各行各業(yè)的公司都在努力將供應商和生產(chǎn)設施轉(zhuǎn)移到距離本國更近的地區(qū),,或者在地理上分布到不同地區(qū),,以免過度依賴一個國家或地區(qū)。這樣做的目的是保證公司能夠承受供應鏈中斷的影響,,并保證業(yè)務的連續(xù)性,。

將生產(chǎn)和制造業(yè)務從海外工廠轉(zhuǎn)移回國內(nèi)的過程又被稱為“制造業(yè)回流”,。最近幾年,制造業(yè)回流的步伐大幅加快,。2022年年初開展的一項調(diào)查顯示,歐洲和美國超過60%的制造企業(yè)預計在未來三年,,將有部分亞洲制造業(yè)務回流,。

最近一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),2022年,,美國交通運輸和制造業(yè)回流創(chuàng)造了350,000個就業(yè)崗位,,較前一年增長了25%。

這一趨勢不僅得到了政府的補貼,,也獲得了零售商的支持,。全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪(Walmart)承諾幫助供應商回流,未來十年對美國制造產(chǎn)品的采購額將增加3,500億美元,。在英國,,對750家小公司的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),五分之二的公司正在考慮國內(nèi)制造商,,以避免新冠疫情造成的供應鏈中斷和高貨運成本,。

與此同時,一些公司正在努力實現(xiàn)供應來源多元化,,通常是從中國轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地區(qū),,其中印度和越南是熱門目的地。

例如,,美國蘋果公司(Apple)最近開始在印度生產(chǎn)部分型號的手機,。蘋果98%的iPhone手機在中國生產(chǎn)。此外,,蘋果最大的供應商富士康(Foxconn)已經(jīng)同意擴大在越南的生產(chǎn)業(yè)務,。自2022年8月以來,美國在中國的制造業(yè)訂單整體減少了21%,。

歐洲汽車廠商沃爾沃(Volvo)在2022年7月宣布,,計劃在斯洛伐克建立工廠,這是該公司60年來在歐洲建立的第一家工廠,。美國,、墨西哥和加拿大的領導人正在舉行會面,討論鼓勵當?shù)赝顿Y的舉措,,這些措施有望促進制造業(yè)回流,。

2. 增加技術投資

新冠疫情爆發(fā)之初暴露出的最嚴重的問題之一是,由于技術水平低下,,公司通常不知道供應商的狀況,。比如,,在新冠疫情之前,超過50%的公司與所有供應商從未進行過溝通,,或者不清楚供應商的具體位置,,這導致公司很難預測供應短缺情況。

公司現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)意識到或者在新冠疫情爆發(fā)之后就認識到,,可以掌握供應鏈的實際狀況,,對避免和適應供應鏈中斷至關重要。而要想做到這一點,,現(xiàn)代數(shù)字技術是關鍵,。

其中包括采用先進軟件與供應商進行更有效的溝通,利用云計算實現(xiàn)高效數(shù)據(jù)存儲,,使用人工智能工具制定更合理的決策,,利用機器人實現(xiàn)流程自動化等。戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司Hackett Group的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),,執(zhí)行這些新技術是2022年全球公司的首要任務,。

3. 從“準時制生產(chǎn)”向“保障制生產(chǎn)”轉(zhuǎn)變

最近數(shù)十年,供應鏈領域的一個重要進步是一種日本管理理念——“準時制生產(chǎn)”,。

雖然這種管理理念的本質(zhì)是減少浪費,,但公司卻將其理解成持有低庫存甚至零庫存。這意味著盡可能減少倉庫存貨,,以最大程度降低存儲成本,,提高效率,從而獲得更高的利潤,。在沒有發(fā)生供應鏈中斷的情況下,,這種系統(tǒng)是有效的。

然而,,執(zhí)行準時制生產(chǎn)的公司,,即使發(fā)生小規(guī)模的供應鏈中斷,也容易受到影響,。公司的超精益供應鏈意味著,,新冠疫情以及其他原因?qū)е碌墓溨袛啾粐乐胤糯螅沟眉幢阋粋€小波瀾也可能演變成大問題,。

現(xiàn)在擔心供應短缺的公司開始增加庫存,。自新冠疫情爆發(fā)以來,許多公司從“準時制生產(chǎn)”轉(zhuǎn)向了“保障制生產(chǎn)”模式,。雖然增加庫存能夠降低公司遭遇供應短缺的可能性,,但這樣做成本更高,因為公司會持有大量過剩庫存,,而且產(chǎn)品在賣掉之前可能已經(jīng)過時,。

但與其他趨勢一樣,,這種趨勢不太可能在短期內(nèi)發(fā)生改變,盡管公司將因此承擔更高成本,。換言之,,公司已經(jīng)認識到,貨架空置的成本高于一定程度的效率低下的成本,。在大多數(shù)情況下,,這些成本會以漲價的形式轉(zhuǎn)嫁給消費者,這對備受通脹之苦的消費者而言或許不是好消息,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

本文是“2023年全球經(jīng)濟”(Global Economy 2023)的一部分,,這是我們關于未來一年世界面臨的挑戰(zhàn)的系列文章,。

本文作者納達·R·桑德斯(Nada R. Sanders)是美國東北大學(Northeastern University)供應鏈管理專業(yè)特聘教授,。

本文已獲知識共享(Creative Commons)組織的許可,轉(zhuǎn)載自The Conversation網(wǎng)站,。

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

The global supply chains that modern companies depend on were turned upside down three years ago after COVID-19 emerged in China. The spread of the new respiratory illness and efforts to slow it resulted in shortages of everything from toilet paper and prescription drugs to refrigerators and semiconductors. Even today, retailers continue to struggle to keep some products, including household items like Tylenol and eggs, in stock. Overall stress in supply chains remains high.

Because shortages, delays and bottlenecks can hurt their bottom line, many companies that didn’t go bust during the pandemic have been rethinking their supply chains and implementing changes to make them more resilient.

As a supply chain expert, I have observed three major shifts in how companies manage their supply chains – changes that will significantly affect consumers and businesses alike.

1. Bringing supply chains home

One of the main downsides of having supply chains that span the globe is that they are more vulnerable to problems outside of a company’s control, such as an earthquake that strikes a key supplier or a citywide lockdown that shuts down factories.

That’s why companies in every industry have been working to relocate suppliers and production facilities closer to home or geographically spreading them out so that they’re not so dependent on one country or region. The goal is to ensure they can withstand disruptions and maintain business continuity.

The pace of reshoring – the process of shifting production and manufacturing to domestic locations from overseas factories – has surged in recent years. Over 60% of European and U.S. manufacturing companies expect to reshore part of their Asia production in the next three years, according to a survey conducted in early 2022.

A more recent survey found that U.S. transport and manufacturing reshored about 350,000 jobs in 2022, up 25% from the previous year.

This trend not only has support from government subsidies but retailers as well. Walmart, one of the world’s biggest retailers, has committed to help its suppliers reshore by increasing its purchases of U.S.-made products by US$350 billion over the next decade. In the U.K., a survey of 750 small businesses found that 2 in 5 are considering switching to domestic manufacturers to avoid COVID-19 disruptions and high shipping costs.

At the same time, other companies are trying to diversify their sources of supply, often away from China, which until recently was regularly locking down whole cities to maintain its now-lapsed zero COVID-19 policy. India and Vietnam are popular destinations.

U.S.-based Apple, for example, frustrated by product delays in China, where 98% of its iPhones are made, recently started producing models in India. In addition, Foxconn, its largest supplier, agreed to expand production in Vietnam. Overall, U.S. manufacturing orders from China are down 21% since August 2022.

In Europe, carmaker Volvo announced in July 2022 plans to open its first European factory in 60 years in Slovakia. And leaders of the U.S., Mexico and Canada are meeting to discuss ways to encourage more investment in the region, which may result in more reshoring.

2. Investing in more technology

One of the biggest issues when the COVID-19 pandemic began was that companies often didn’t know what was going on with their suppliers because of poor technology. For example, prior to the pandemic, over 50% of companies didn’t communicate with or know the locations of all their suppliers, making it difficult to anticipate shortages.

Companies have since learned, if they didn’t already know, that being able to see what is happening along their supply chains is critical to avoiding and adapting to disruptions. And modern digital technologies are key to making this happen.

This includes everything from state-of-the-art software to better communicate with suppliers to cloud computing for efficient data storage, artificial intelligence tools to make better decisions and robotics for automating processes. Implementing these new technologies is the biggest global corporate priority for 2022, according to strategic consultancy the Hackett Group.

3. From “just-in-time” to “just-in-case”

One of the great supply chain advancements in recent decades is a Japanese management philosophy known as “just-in-time.”

While the essence of the philosophy is eliminating waste, businesses reduced just-in-time to the idea of having low or even zero inventory. That meant carrying as little stuff in warehouses as possible to minimize storage costs, maximize efficiencies and yield higher profits. As long as there were no disruptions, the system worked.

However, just-in-time made businesses vulnerable to even small disruptions. Companies’ super-lean supply chains meant the disruptions caused by the pandemic – and pretty much anything else – were amplified considerably, making even a hiccup potentially cascade into a major problem.

Companies now fearful of shortages are moving toward carrying more inventory. Since the pandemic began, many have been shifting from just-in-time to a “just in case” model. While having more inventory will make it less likely companies will experience shortages, it’s also more costly because it can lead to a lot of excess stock and products becoming obsolete before they’re sold.

But this trend, like the others, is unlikely to change anytime soon despite the elevated costs they’ll incur. That is, companies learned that the cost of empty shelves was higher than the cost of some inefficiency. In most cases, these costs will be passed on to consumers in terms of higher prices – which may be bad news for consumers tired of inflation.

This article is part of Global Economy 2023, our series about the challenges facing the world in the year ahead.

Nada R. Sanders is Distinguished Professor of Supply Chain Management, Northeastern University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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