
如今,,就連美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的一些官員也已經(jīng)開始對其通脹抑制策略感到“緊張”。
截至目前,,為給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)祭出了一系列激進(jìn)的加息舉措。9月21日,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)第三次批準(zhǔn)加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn),,聯(lián)邦基金利率達(dá)到14年以來的最高水平。
但許多投資者和銀行家擔(dān)心,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的相關(guān)政策或會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)過快降溫,,進(jìn)而引發(fā)“硬著陸”或經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍然相信自己可以避免此種情況,但就連部分美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員也已經(jīng)對加息步伐過快感到憂慮,。
芝加哥聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Chicago Federal Reserve)的行長查爾斯·埃文斯于9月27日接受美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)的《Squawk Box Europe》欄目采訪時(shí)說:“這正是我有點(diǎn)擔(dān)心的事情,。”
利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
埃文斯稱,,加快加息步伐對于降低通脹是必要的,。他表示:“要想在未來實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,一個(gè)非常重要的基礎(chǔ)就是穩(wěn)定的低水平通脹,?!?/p>
不過,雖然抑制通脹是當(dāng)務(wù)之急,,但美國今年的加息速度確實(shí)前所未見,。
埃文斯說:“美國短期政策利率近期上升非常迅速”。他指出,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年7個(gè)月內(nèi)的加息幅度已經(jīng)與1994年金融危機(jī)時(shí)全年的幅度相當(dāng),。
一些美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員對快速加息持不同意見。今年7月,,堪薩斯城聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)的行長埃絲特·喬治表示,,加息過快“增加了矯枉過正的可能性”,并警告稱,,這一政策最終可能弊大于利,。
埃文斯說:“貨幣政策存在滯后性,而我們的行動(dòng)太過迅速,?!彼姓J(rèn),前幾次加息之后,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“并未留出多少時(shí)間”來評估相關(guān)影響,,就匆忙再次宣布加息。
埃文斯說,,他對美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否避免矯枉過正持“謹(jǐn)慎樂觀”的態(tài)度,,并補(bǔ)充道,按照最新預(yù)測,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在明年3月加息至4.26%后停止加息,。目前,,聯(lián)邦基金利率處于3%至3.25%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間,。
埃文斯認(rèn)為,當(dāng)前的目標(biāo)利率可能尚不足以導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸,,就業(yè)率或許也能夠“維持在衰退水平之上”,。但他也警告稱,,要想實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),就不能出現(xiàn)任何可能破壞美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)計(jì)劃并迫使其繼續(xù)加息的意外,。
他說:“經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊,,我們也可能遇到其他困難?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
如今,,就連美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的一些官員也已經(jīng)開始對其通脹抑制策略感到“緊張”。
截至目前,,為給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)祭出了一系列激進(jìn)的加息舉措。9月21日,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)第三次批準(zhǔn)加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn),,聯(lián)邦基金利率達(dá)到14年以來的最高水平。
但許多投資者和銀行家擔(dān)心,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的相關(guān)政策或會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)過快降溫,,進(jìn)而引發(fā)“硬著陸”或經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍然相信自己可以避免此種情況,,但就連部分美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員也已經(jīng)對加息步伐過快感到憂慮,。
芝加哥聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Chicago Federal Reserve)的行長查爾斯·埃文斯于9月27日接受美國消費(fèi)者新聞與商業(yè)頻道(CNBC)的《Squawk Box Europe》欄目采訪時(shí)說:“這正是我有點(diǎn)擔(dān)心的事情?!?/p>
利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
埃文斯稱,,加快加息步伐對于降低通脹是必要的。他表示:“要想在未來實(shí)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,,一個(gè)非常重要的基礎(chǔ)就是穩(wěn)定的低水平通脹,。”
不過,,雖然抑制通脹是當(dāng)務(wù)之急,,但美國今年的加息速度確實(shí)前所未見。
埃文斯說:“美國短期政策利率近期上升非常迅速”,。他指出,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年7個(gè)月內(nèi)的加息幅度已經(jīng)與1994年金融危機(jī)時(shí)全年的幅度相當(dāng)。
一些美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員對快速加息持不同意見,。今年7月,,堪薩斯城聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)的行長埃絲特·喬治表示,加息過快“增加了矯枉過正的可能性”,,并警告稱,,這一政策最終可能弊大于利。
埃文斯說:“貨幣政策存在滯后性,而我們的行動(dòng)太過迅速,?!彼姓J(rèn),前幾次加息之后,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“并未留出多少時(shí)間”來評估相關(guān)影響,,就匆忙再次宣布加息。
埃文斯說,,他對美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能否避免矯枉過正持“謹(jǐn)慎樂觀”的態(tài)度,,并補(bǔ)充道,按照最新預(yù)測,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在明年3月加息至4.26%后停止加息,。目前,聯(lián)邦基金利率處于3%至3.25%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間,。
埃文斯認(rèn)為,,當(dāng)前的目標(biāo)利率可能尚不足以導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸,就業(yè)率或許也能夠“維持在衰退水平之上”,。但他也警告稱,,要想實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo),就不能出現(xiàn)任何可能破壞美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)計(jì)劃并迫使其繼續(xù)加息的意外,。
他說:“經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊,,我們也可能遇到其他困難?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:梁宇
審校:夏林
Even some Federal Reserve officials are getting nervous about their strategy to tame inflation.
So far, the central bank’s approach has been a series of aggressive interest rate hikes to cool the economy. In September 21, it approved a 75 basis point rate hike for the third consecutive time, bringing the benchmark funds rate to its highest level in 14 years.
But many investors and bankers fear that the Fed risks cooling economic activity too quickly, and that it could lead to a “hard landing,” or recession. The central bank still believes it can avoid one—but even Fed officials are apprehensive about the pace of rising rates.
“I am a little nervous about exactly that,” Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told?CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on September 27, when asked if the bank’s interest rate hikes could cause deeper damage to the economy that the bank wouldn’t pick up on immediately.
Rate risks
Evans said that the fast pace of rate hikes is necessary to reduce inflation. “Low and stable inflation is a very important fundamental for strong growth going forward,” he said.
But while taming inflation is a priority, the speed at which interest rates have risen in the U.S. this year has been unprecedented.
“This has been a very rapid increase in our short-term policy rate,” Evans said, noting that it took the Fed seven months to raise rates this year by the same amount it did in an entire year during the 1994 financial crisis.
Some Federal Reserve officials have dissented against the rapid interest rate hikes. In July, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said that raising rates too fast “raises the prospect of oversteering,” and cautioned that the policy could end up doing more harm than good.
“There are lags in monetary policy, and we have moved expeditiously,” Evans said, conceding that the Fed was “not leaving much time” to assess the impact of each interest rate hike before moving on to the next one.
Evans said he remains “cautiously optimistic” that the Fed can avoid oversteering, adding that the Fed is sticking to its latest projections of ending its rate hikes after they reach 4.26% in March of next year. The federal funds rate is currently set at a target range of 3% to 3.25%.
That target might be enough to avoid a hard landing for the economy, and could lead to employment “stabilizing at something that still is not a recession,” Evans said. But he also cautioned that this target depends on no surprises that could derail the Fed’s game plan, and force it to keep raising rates.
“There could be shocks, there could be other difficulties,” he said.