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得到科技和金融巨頭加持,,這位共和黨州長(zhǎng)準(zhǔn)備挑戰(zhàn)特朗普

Anne Sraders
2022-09-19

美國(guó)佛羅里達(dá)州的州長(zhǎng)羅恩·德桑蒂斯獲得了一些日益強(qiáng)大的科技和金融界人士的支持,,其中一些人甚至押注他能夠在2024年入主白宮。

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商界對(duì)話(huà)中,,美國(guó)佛羅里達(dá)州的州長(zhǎng)羅恩·德桑蒂斯正引領(lǐng)趨勢(shì)。圖片來(lái)源:PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FORTUNE; ORIGINAL PHOTOS BY JABIN BOTSFORD—THE WASHINGTON POST/GETTY IMAGES; GETTY IMAGES

7月下旬的一天下午,,美國(guó)猶他州帕克城瑞吉酒店(St. Regis hotel)充滿(mǎn)享樂(lè)氣息的餐廳里,卡森·喬根森正在與一群捐贈(zèng)者和商界領(lǐng)袖翹首等待貴賓到來(lái),。

近幾年冉冉升起的政治明星,美國(guó)佛羅里達(dá)州的州長(zhǎng),、共和黨人羅恩·德桑蒂斯準(zhǔn)時(shí)出現(xiàn),高效率拍完照片,,隨后在酒店的“霧凇”餐廳里伴著沙拉雞肉午餐向大家致辭,,眾人身后是雄偉的落基山脈(Rocky Mountains)。這是今年7月下旬該組織在猶他州為德桑蒂斯舉辦的第二場(chǎng)籌款活動(dòng),,目標(biāo)是2022年連任州長(zhǎng),。猶他州共和黨主席喬根森回憶說(shuō),在場(chǎng)各位是一些“輕裝簡(jiǎn)從”的“上流社會(huì)捐贈(zèng)者”,,因?yàn)閾?jù)他估計(jì),,“這場(chǎng)籌款活動(dòng)相當(dāng)昂貴”(有報(bào)道稱(chēng)午餐門(mén)票一張5,000美元)。喬根森回憶道,,德桑蒂斯講話(huà)約半小時(shí),談到了一些諸如對(duì)迪士尼(Disney)等所謂“覺(jué)醒”公司發(fā)起反擊的話(huà)題,,以及新冠疫情期間他如何開(kāi)放佛羅里達(dá)州的經(jīng)濟(jì),。

正因?yàn)榈律5偎购敛谎陲椀夭扇×擞H商業(yè)反政治的正確立場(chǎng),加上美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普好斗樹(shù)敵,,他在佛羅里達(dá)州獲得了一些日益強(qiáng)大的科技和金融界人士的欣賞,,其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能夠勇往無(wú)前入主白宮。

近年來(lái),,德桑蒂斯的身后確實(shí)聚集了一批富有的捐贈(zèng)者:支持者包括對(duì)沖基金Citadel創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官肯·格里芬,、對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理保羅·都鐸·瓊斯、包裝材料大亨理查德·烏伊萊因,、家得寶(Home Depot)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及前首席執(zhí)行官伯尼·馬庫(kù)斯等億萬(wàn)富翁,。過(guò)去兩年,他們都通過(guò)政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)“羅恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”(Friends of Ron DeSantis)慷慨解囊,。最新的大手筆捐贈(zèng)者是酒店業(yè)巨頭及航天企業(yè)家羅伯特·比奇洛,,7月他剛剛捐贈(zèng)了1,000萬(wàn)美元。根據(jù)追蹤政治捐款的組織OpenSecrets統(tǒng)計(jì),,截至8月19日,,德桑蒂斯共籌集到1.72億美元,。喬根森回憶說(shuō),盡管猶他州的籌款活動(dòng)完全是為了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州競(jìng)選連任,,與會(huì)者還是討論了2024年他競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)的潛力,。“他很多事情做得很對(duì),?!?月Citadel的首席執(zhí)行官格里芬在米爾肯研究院全球論壇(Milken Institute Global Conference)上談到德桑蒂斯時(shí)表示。他還指出:“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),,他是當(dāng)前共和黨初選中的領(lǐng)頭羊,。”格里芬一直在德桑蒂斯捐贈(zèng)者中排名前列,,2021年就捐款了500萬(wàn)美元,。

盡管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布競(jìng)選總統(tǒng),但他已經(jīng)成為宣稱(chēng)要參加2024年大選的特朗普的主要挑戰(zhàn)者,。最新民調(diào)顯示,,盡管德桑蒂斯在假想競(jìng)選中輕松擊敗了其他人,但特朗普領(lǐng)先德桑蒂斯的優(yōu)勢(shì)仍然相當(dāng)大(8月19日至21日之間最新的Politico/Morning民調(diào)顯示,,特朗普領(lǐng)先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39個(gè)百分點(diǎn)),。

盡管德桑蒂斯本人因?yàn)榕c媒體交鋒,新冠疫情期間就變性運(yùn)動(dòng)員和厭惡口罩等問(wèn)題發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)鮮明且富爭(zhēng)議的意見(jiàn)而名聲大噪,,但談及2024年他會(huì)不會(huì)參選以及屆時(shí)會(huì)不會(huì)支持他,,德桑蒂斯的忠實(shí)支持者基本保持沉默,。《財(cái)富》雜志希望就德桑蒂斯采訪十幾位富豪(老實(shí)說(shuō),,經(jīng)常是守口如瓶的億萬(wàn)富翁),,對(duì)方要么不回復(fù)置評(píng)請(qǐng)求,要么拒絕公開(kāi)評(píng)論,?!敦?cái)富》雜志多次請(qǐng)求采訪德桑蒂斯,其競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)也未回應(yīng),。

德桑蒂斯還需要一段時(shí)間才可以宣布是否參與2024年大選,,當(dāng)前仍然重點(diǎn)關(guān)注2022年佛州州長(zhǎng)競(jìng)選,。至于2024年大選,尚無(wú)候選人明確表示參選,,還有很多未知之?dāng)?shù),。但很明顯的一點(diǎn)是,,無(wú)論德桑蒂斯參選與否,由于這位佛州州長(zhǎng)對(duì)爭(zhēng)議問(wèn)題立場(chǎng)偏激,,經(jīng)常有些特朗普風(fēng)格,,已經(jīng)贏得不少金融和科技大佬強(qiáng)烈支持,而且不僅在佛州,,在美國(guó)其他地區(qū)也一樣,。通過(guò)行動(dòng)和言辭,他拉攏了同樣認(rèn)為ESG投資是笑話(huà)的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖,;認(rèn)為公司不應(yīng)該關(guān)心社會(huì)問(wèn)題的人,,德桑蒂斯稱(chēng)這種做法叫反“覺(jué)醒”;還有認(rèn)同經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)該作為頭等大事考慮,,哪怕做不到也要優(yōu)先考慮的人。

無(wú)論2024年情況如何,,德桑蒂斯都對(duì)大選之前的對(duì)話(huà)發(fā)揮著不可忽視的影響,。

邁阿密商界的支持

盡管德桑蒂斯傾向挑戰(zhàn)當(dāng)權(quán)者,其實(shí)他也出身經(jīng)典的常春藤(Ivy League)名校,。他童年大部分時(shí)間在佛州達(dá)尼丁,,參加少年棒球聯(lián)賽,之后去耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)讀書(shū),,擔(dān)任大學(xué)棒球隊(duì)隊(duì)長(zhǎng),。本科畢業(yè)后,他繼續(xù)在哈佛法學(xué)院(Harvard Law School)深造,。

參政之前,,德桑蒂斯曾經(jīng)在美國(guó)海軍擔(dān)任法律顧問(wèn),,現(xiàn)役完成后擔(dān)任聯(lián)邦檢察官。早年政治生涯中,,他曾經(jīng)在2013年至2018年期間擔(dān)任佛州議員,。2018年前總統(tǒng)特朗普在選舉中支持他擔(dān)任州長(zhǎng)時(shí),他在全美的知名度進(jìn)一步提高,。據(jù)報(bào)道,,特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯,是因?yàn)榭吹剿诟,?怂剐侣劊‵ox News)中的發(fā)言,。

不過(guò)德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期間。硅谷和華爾街移民尋找零所得稅和封鎖期間能夠保持“開(kāi)放”的州,,紛紛涌入佛羅里達(dá),。他迎合了公眾對(duì)疫情期間規(guī)避公共衛(wèi)生指南和相關(guān)規(guī)定的期望,疫情爆發(fā)初期努力維持企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng),。在商界,,他針對(duì)疫情頗受爭(zhēng)議的立場(chǎng)一直是賣(mài)點(diǎn),一些與《財(cái)富》雜志談話(huà)的人都認(rèn)為他特別親商業(yè),。

最近,,德桑蒂斯一些爭(zhēng)議性政策受到了人們審視,例如從幼兒園到三年級(jí)禁止公立學(xué)校教師與學(xué)生討論性取向或性別認(rèn)同的法案很受爭(zhēng)議,,反對(duì)者稱(chēng)之為“不要說(shuō)同性戀”(Don’t Say Gay)法案,。他在墮胎問(wèn)題上立場(chǎng)也更加強(qiáng)硬,最近暫停了坦帕地區(qū)一名州檢察官的職務(wù),,羅訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)被推翻后該檢察官承諾不執(zhí)行本州的新墮胎法,。

過(guò)去幾年一些搬到佛州的商業(yè)和創(chuàng)業(yè)人士很贊賞德桑蒂斯的執(zhí)政方式。Bustle Digital Group的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·戈德堡就是其中之一,,該集團(tuán)旗下包括Bustle,、W雜志(W Magazine)和Gawker等媒體網(wǎng)站。他認(rèn)為,,德桑蒂斯優(yōu)先考慮企業(yè)維持經(jīng)營(yíng)而不是執(zhí)行公共衛(wèi)生任務(wù),,所以很有吸引力:“他把經(jīng)濟(jì)放在首位?!弊罱甑卤じ嬖V《財(cái)富》雜志,。他認(rèn)為,經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去幾年,,“不僅是佛羅里達(dá)州,,全美人民都相當(dāng)認(rèn)可德桑蒂斯當(dāng)州長(zhǎng)的表現(xiàn)。”至于2022年以后,,“面臨的問(wèn)題不一樣,。”戈德堡說(shuō),。(根據(jù)德桑蒂斯的政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)的記錄,,7月戈德堡為其競(jìng)選連任捐贈(zèng)了1,000美元。)

德桑蒂斯反對(duì)“企業(yè)覺(jué)醒”也獲得了戈德堡之類(lèi)企業(yè)家的共鳴:“我認(rèn)為企業(yè)應(yīng)該遠(yuǎn)離政治,。這是迪士尼慘敗的教訓(xùn):首席執(zhí)行官不是民選官員,。”他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,。正如戈德堡所說(shuō),,近年來(lái),不少首席執(zhí)行官就各種“社會(huì)和政治問(wèn)題”向員工發(fā)送新聞稿和內(nèi)部通訊,?!斑@是錯(cuò)誤的。很糟糕,。首席執(zhí)行官只有一份工作,,就是有效地管理公司?!彼f(shuō),。(當(dāng)被問(wèn)及在影響員工的問(wèn)題上采取何種立場(chǎng)時(shí),比如墮胎和推翻羅訴韋德案,,戈德堡表示并不針對(duì)“某個(gè)特定問(wèn)題”,。)

其他人,例如Citadel的首席執(zhí)行官格里芬,,認(rèn)為德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗爭(zhēng)方面有些過(guò)分,。迪士尼批評(píng)了德桑蒂斯的《家長(zhǎng)教育權(quán)利法》(Parental Rights in Education law)或“不要說(shuō)同性戀”法案后,德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作為特別稅區(qū)的地位,,格里芬認(rèn)為此舉更像是“報(bào)復(fù)”,。

德桑蒂斯針對(duì)科技巨頭的一些立場(chǎng),比如攻擊所謂的社交媒體審查,,并沒(méi)有影響佛州成為硅谷和華爾街外派人士尋找對(duì)商業(yè)更友好州時(shí)的熱門(mén)選擇,。過(guò)去幾年,從金融巨頭Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都將總部遷至佛州,,還有聲名狼藉的投資者凱西·伍德掌管的資產(chǎn)管理公司ARK Investment Management(伍德一直是特朗普的支持者,但拒絕就下屆選舉候選人的看法向《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)表評(píng)論),。

然而,,德桑蒂斯也將矛頭對(duì)準(zhǔn)了投資管理行業(yè),特別是嘲笑著重考慮環(huán)境、社會(huì)和治理因素的ESG投資,,要求州管理委員會(huì)(State Board of Administration)的基金經(jīng)理在投資時(shí)不許考慮ESG,。不過(guò)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資者,也是貝寶幫(PayPal mafia)的基思·拉布瓦來(lái)說(shuō),,此舉并未讓他反感,。拉布瓦如今在邁阿密的風(fēng)投公司Founders Fund?!癊SG投資就是欺詐,。”他對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,“所以如果有政客想傳達(dá)我們的觀點(diǎn),,我們肯定不會(huì)反對(duì)?!?/p>

佛州州長(zhǎng)“營(yíng)造的氛圍是,,這是創(chuàng)業(yè)的好地方。這是人們感到興奮的主要原因,?!蔽挥谶~阿密的早期投資和孵化公司帕累托控股(Pareto Holdings)的執(zhí)行合伙人愛(ài)德華·蘭多告訴《財(cái)富》雜志(蘭多住在佛州,但因?yàn)樗欠▏?guó)公民,,所以沒(méi)有資格在美國(guó)投票),。蘭多稱(chēng),他的圈子里有人在談?wù)摰律5偎?,而且他認(rèn)為,,“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不錯(cuò)的候選人,爭(zhēng)議比起支持特朗普就要小得多”,。

坦率的保守派風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人拉布瓦和其他人一樣,,還在努力對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn):“顯然,所有人都在等著看誰(shuí)參加競(jìng)選,。確切得知候選人是誰(shuí)之前不必做決定,。”他說(shuō),。不過(guò)拉布瓦表示,,不管是德桑蒂斯,還是佛州參議員馬爾科·魯比奧或里克·斯科特或邁阿密市的市長(zhǎng)弗朗西斯·蘇亞雷斯,,如果其中有人可以成為下一任總統(tǒng),,都會(huì)讓人“興奮”,他認(rèn)為這幾位“都會(huì)得到佛州科技界和商界領(lǐng)袖的廣泛支持,?!狈鹬葜猓貏e提出南卡羅來(lái)納州前州長(zhǎng)尼基·黑利和阿肯色州參議湯姆·科頓是“頂尖候選人”,但不確定這幾人會(huì)不會(huì)參選,。他宣稱(chēng):“我認(rèn)識(shí)的很多商界領(lǐng)袖都不會(huì)支持特朗普,。”

拉布瓦最關(guān)注的政策包括中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng),;小企業(yè)和教育從疫情復(fù)蘇,;還有“佛州作為低稅和監(jiān)管寬松之地”促進(jìn)商業(yè)和“成功就業(yè)”。他認(rèn)為,,這些問(wèn)題都是德桑蒂斯能夠用來(lái)區(qū)分自己和他人的“問(wèn)題組合”,。但拉布瓦也承認(rèn),在他的風(fēng)投和創(chuàng)業(yè)圈里“不談?wù)撨@些,。太忙了,。”

除了佛羅里達(dá)本地人,,“硅谷和科技界對(duì)特朗普評(píng)價(jià)不高,。未來(lái)估計(jì)不會(huì)有變化,邁阿密科技圈想必也不會(huì)更熱情,?!盉ustle Digital Group的戈德堡說(shuō)。他表示,,科技和金融業(yè)向佛州大量轉(zhuǎn)移的結(jié)果是,,不少新來(lái)者“兩黨皆考慮”,他相信大多數(shù)佛州人和科技界人士會(huì)支持德桑蒂斯,。戈德堡認(rèn)為,,墮胎權(quán)等問(wèn)題對(duì)科技公司很重要,德桑蒂斯可能必須謹(jǐn)慎行事:“成千上萬(wàn)人前往佛州開(kāi)始新生活,,他們可不希望權(quán)利減少,。”他建議,。

但很明顯,,“管理一個(gè)州是一回事,管理一國(guó)是另一回事,?!惫埠忘h長(zhǎng)期籌款人和律師埃里克·萊文指出?!昂芏嗳硕枷攵嗔私庖恍┧诮?jīng)濟(jì)方面的愿景,。”

展望2024年

盡管德桑蒂斯已經(jīng)收獲大量捐贈(zèng)者的支持,,他對(duì)2024年是否參選的謠言一直保持沉默,,可能原因是今年秋天即將舉行的中期選舉,,畢竟共和黨人希望控制參議院和眾議院。共和黨籌款人兼律師萊文認(rèn)為:“很難知道他們不表態(tài)是不是因?yàn)椴幌敕磳?duì)特朗普,,還是像我一樣,只想繼續(xù)關(guān)注中期選舉,?!焙芏鄨?bào)道顯示,共和黨成員確實(shí)擔(dān)心11月之前特朗普宣布參加2024年大選,,也有報(bào)道稱(chēng)特朗普正考慮中期選舉之后再宣布,。

不管捐贈(zèng)者是否已經(jīng)明確表態(tài),從當(dāng)前思潮,、媒體關(guān)注和民調(diào)來(lái)看,,德桑蒂斯已經(jīng)成為與特朗普角逐下屆大選的關(guān)鍵候選人?!拔艺J(rèn)為,,(2024年)如果德桑蒂斯的名字出現(xiàn),部分原因就是大家都聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)他,?!比R文告訴《財(cái)富》雜志?!斑@個(gè)月已經(jīng)有點(diǎn)感覺(jué),,因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在是認(rèn)名字階段?!彼硎?。“他跟迪士尼斗爭(zhēng),;跟白宮首席醫(yī)療顧問(wèn)安東尼·福奇斗爭(zhēng),;還在跟加州州長(zhǎng)加文·紐瑟姆斗爭(zhēng)?!?/p>

但即便面對(duì)特朗普在全球聲名狼藉,,萊文還是認(rèn)為媒體關(guān)注不一定可以削弱其勝算?!翱傆幸恍╊I(lǐng)先者——比如希拉里·克林頓,,2008年她怎么了?或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了,?當(dāng)年有誰(shuí)知名度和收入比杰布·布什高,?”他爭(zhēng)辯道?!按筮x剛開(kāi)始知名度如何,,跟最后人們把票投給誰(shuí),,中間是有區(qū)別的?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,,這還不是兩人競(jìng)選:萊文說(shuō),關(guān)于2024年大選已經(jīng)聽(tīng)到人們談?wù)摪⒖仙輩⒆h員科頓,、前國(guó)務(wù)卿邁克·蓬佩奧,、南卡羅來(lái)納州前州長(zhǎng)黑利、前副總統(tǒng)邁克·彭斯和南卡羅萊納州參議員蒂姆·斯科特等(到目前為止,,幾人的支持率遠(yuǎn)低于德桑蒂斯),。

即便特朗普因?yàn)?月6日國(guó)會(huì)暴亂而受到調(diào)查,以及美國(guó)聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)為調(diào)查涉嫌不當(dāng)處理機(jī)密文件突擊搜查海湖莊園,,特朗普在共和黨中的支持率仍然不可否認(rèn),,雖然根據(jù)一些民調(diào),認(rèn)為他應(yīng)該再次參選的共和黨人比例有所下降,。

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),,特朗普的白宮前傳播總監(jiān)、SkyBridge Capital的創(chuàng)始人安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批評(píng)德桑蒂斯,。6月他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,德桑蒂斯沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)擊敗特朗普,特朗普最終會(huì)“打敗德桑蒂斯”,。他認(rèn)為,,特朗普“非常善妒”,“會(huì)在政治上明嘲暗諷地詆毀德桑蒂斯,?!彼箍ɡ缕嫜a(bǔ)充說(shuō),雖然特朗普“可能無(wú)法獲得共和黨提名……在失敗的過(guò)程中,,他會(huì)毀掉德桑蒂斯,。”

猶他州共和黨主席喬根森等人打賭,,“如果特朗普參選,,就仍然會(huì)得到基層群眾支持?!彼J(rèn)為“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文,,就是另一個(gè)特朗普”,或者正如《紐約客》(New Yorker)最近一篇文章中指出,,“智慧版特朗普”,。但他認(rèn)為特朗普“仍然獲得民眾擁戴?!笔聦?shí)上,,特朗普的支持者吹噓他基層支持廣泛,。截至7月底,特朗普的“拯救美國(guó)政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)”(Save America PAC,,據(jù)報(bào)道,,聯(lián)邦陪審團(tuán)正在就1月6日暴亂對(duì)其調(diào)查)擁有現(xiàn)金約9,900萬(wàn)美元(不過(guò)有報(bào)道稱(chēng),這筆錢(qián)不能用于2024年大選,,而且特朗普等待宣布2024年參選之際,,已經(jīng)面臨違反競(jìng)選法募集資金的指控)。

“很多人坐山觀虎斗,,因?yàn)橛行┤讼胫С痔乩势眨钟悬c(diǎn)懷疑,?!眴谈治龅馈R病坝腥讼胫С值律5偎?,但不敢出頭,,因?yàn)檫@么做很危險(xiǎn)?!?/p>

今夏猶他州籌款活動(dòng)上,,與會(huì)者觥籌交錯(cuò)間,關(guān)于下屆大選的話(huà)題呼之欲出,。但約根森清楚記得,,即使在德桑蒂斯自己的籌款活動(dòng)上,談起2024年會(huì)對(duì)誰(shuí)感興趣時(shí)還是有人提到了另一個(gè)名字:特朗普,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

7月下旬的一天下午,,美國(guó)猶他州帕克城瑞吉酒店(St. Regis hotel)充滿(mǎn)享樂(lè)氣息的餐廳里,卡森·喬根森正在與一群捐贈(zèng)者和商界領(lǐng)袖翹首等待貴賓到來(lái),。

近幾年冉冉升起的政治明星,,美國(guó)佛羅里達(dá)州的州長(zhǎng)、共和黨人羅恩·德桑蒂斯準(zhǔn)時(shí)出現(xiàn),,高效率拍完照片,,隨后在酒店的“霧凇”餐廳里伴著沙拉雞肉午餐向大家致辭,眾人身后是雄偉的落基山脈(Rocky Mountains),。這是今年7月下旬該組織在猶他州為德桑蒂斯舉辦的第二場(chǎng)籌款活動(dòng),,目標(biāo)是2022年連任州長(zhǎng)。猶他州共和黨主席喬根森回憶說(shuō),,在場(chǎng)各位是一些“輕裝簡(jiǎn)從”的“上流社會(huì)捐贈(zèng)者”,,因?yàn)閾?jù)他估計(jì),“這場(chǎng)籌款活動(dòng)相當(dāng)昂貴”(有報(bào)道稱(chēng)午餐門(mén)票一張5,000美元),。喬根森回憶道,,德桑蒂斯講話(huà)約半小時(shí),,談到了一些諸如對(duì)迪士尼(Disney)等所謂“覺(jué)醒”公司發(fā)起反擊的話(huà)題,以及新冠疫情期間他如何開(kāi)放佛羅里達(dá)州的經(jīng)濟(jì),。

正因?yàn)榈律5偎购敛谎陲椀夭扇×擞H商業(yè)反政治的正確立場(chǎng),,加上美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普好斗樹(shù)敵,他在佛羅里達(dá)州獲得了一些日益強(qiáng)大的科技和金融界人士的欣賞,,其中一些人甚至押注2024年他能夠勇往無(wú)前入主白宮,。

近年來(lái),德桑蒂斯的身后確實(shí)聚集了一批富有的捐贈(zèng)者:支持者包括對(duì)沖基金Citadel創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官肯·格里芬,、對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理保羅·都鐸·瓊斯,、包裝材料大亨理查德·烏伊萊因、家得寶(Home Depot)聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及前首席執(zhí)行官伯尼·馬庫(kù)斯等億萬(wàn)富翁,。過(guò)去兩年,,他們都通過(guò)政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)“羅恩·德桑蒂斯的朋友”(Friends of Ron DeSantis)慷慨解囊。最新的大手筆捐贈(zèng)者是酒店業(yè)巨頭及航天企業(yè)家羅伯特·比奇洛,,7月他剛剛捐贈(zèng)了1,000萬(wàn)美元,。根據(jù)追蹤政治捐款的組織OpenSecrets統(tǒng)計(jì),截至8月19日,,德桑蒂斯共籌集到1.72億美元,。喬根森回憶說(shuō),盡管猶他州的籌款活動(dòng)完全是為了支持德桑蒂斯在佛州競(jìng)選連任,,與會(huì)者還是討論了2024年他競(jìng)選總統(tǒng)的潛力,。“他很多事情做得很對(duì),?!?月Citadel的首席執(zhí)行官格里芬在米爾肯研究院全球論壇(Milken Institute Global Conference)上談到德桑蒂斯時(shí)表示。他還指出:“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),,他是當(dāng)前共和黨初選中的領(lǐng)頭羊,。”格里芬一直在德桑蒂斯捐贈(zèng)者中排名前列,,2021年就捐款了500萬(wàn)美元,。

盡管德桑蒂斯尚未宣布競(jìng)選總統(tǒng),但他已經(jīng)成為宣稱(chēng)要參加2024年大選的特朗普的主要挑戰(zhàn)者,。最新民調(diào)顯示,,盡管德桑蒂斯在假想競(jìng)選中輕松擊敗了其他人,但特朗普領(lǐng)先德桑蒂斯的優(yōu)勢(shì)仍然相當(dāng)大(8月19日至21日之間最新的Politico/Morning民調(diào)顯示,,特朗普領(lǐng)先排名第二位的德桑蒂斯39個(gè)百分點(diǎn)),。

盡管德桑蒂斯本人因?yàn)榕c媒體交鋒,新冠疫情期間就變性運(yùn)動(dòng)員和厭惡口罩等問(wèn)題發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)鮮明且富爭(zhēng)議的意見(jiàn)而名聲大噪,,但談及2024年他會(huì)不會(huì)參選以及屆時(shí)會(huì)不會(huì)支持他,,德桑蒂斯的忠實(shí)支持者基本保持沉默,。《財(cái)富》雜志希望就德桑蒂斯采訪十幾位富豪(老實(shí)說(shuō),,經(jīng)常是守口如瓶的億萬(wàn)富翁),,對(duì)方要么不回復(fù)置評(píng)請(qǐng)求,要么拒絕公開(kāi)評(píng)論,?!敦?cái)富》雜志多次請(qǐng)求采訪德桑蒂斯,其競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)也未回應(yīng),。

德桑蒂斯還需要一段時(shí)間才可以宣布是否參與2024年大選,,當(dāng)前仍然重點(diǎn)關(guān)注2022年佛州州長(zhǎng)競(jìng)選。至于2024年大選,,尚無(wú)候選人明確表示參選,,還有很多未知之?dāng)?shù)。但很明顯的一點(diǎn)是,,無(wú)論德桑蒂斯參選與否,由于這位佛州州長(zhǎng)對(duì)爭(zhēng)議問(wèn)題立場(chǎng)偏激,,經(jīng)常有些特朗普風(fēng)格,,已經(jīng)贏得不少金融和科技大佬強(qiáng)烈支持,而且不僅在佛州,,在美國(guó)其他地區(qū)也一樣,。通過(guò)行動(dòng)和言辭,他拉攏了同樣認(rèn)為ESG投資是笑話(huà)的商業(yè)領(lǐng)袖,;認(rèn)為公司不應(yīng)該關(guān)心社會(huì)問(wèn)題的人,,德桑蒂斯稱(chēng)這種做法叫反“覺(jué)醒”;還有認(rèn)同經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)該作為頭等大事考慮,,哪怕做不到也要優(yōu)先考慮的人,。

無(wú)論2024年情況如何,德桑蒂斯都對(duì)大選之前的對(duì)話(huà)發(fā)揮著不可忽視的影響,。

邁阿密商界的支持

盡管德桑蒂斯傾向挑戰(zhàn)當(dāng)權(quán)者,,其實(shí)他也出身經(jīng)典的常春藤(Ivy League)名校。他童年大部分時(shí)間在佛州達(dá)尼丁,,參加少年棒球聯(lián)賽,,之后去耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)讀書(shū),擔(dān)任大學(xué)棒球隊(duì)隊(duì)長(zhǎng),。本科畢業(yè)后,,他繼續(xù)在哈佛法學(xué)院(Harvard Law School)深造。

參政之前,,德桑蒂斯曾經(jīng)在美國(guó)海軍擔(dān)任法律顧問(wèn),,現(xiàn)役完成后擔(dān)任聯(lián)邦檢察官,。早年政治生涯中,他曾經(jīng)在2013年至2018年期間擔(dān)任佛州議員,。2018年前總統(tǒng)特朗普在選舉中支持他擔(dān)任州長(zhǎng)時(shí),,他在全美的知名度進(jìn)一步提高。據(jù)報(bào)道,,特朗普之所以支持德桑蒂斯,,是因?yàn)榭吹剿诟?怂剐侣劊‵ox News)中的發(fā)言,。

不過(guò)德桑蒂斯真正崛起是在新冠疫情期間,。硅谷和華爾街移民尋找零所得稅和封鎖期間能夠保持“開(kāi)放”的州,紛紛涌入佛羅里達(dá),。他迎合了公眾對(duì)疫情期間規(guī)避公共衛(wèi)生指南和相關(guān)規(guī)定的期望,,疫情爆發(fā)初期努力維持企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)。在商界,,他針對(duì)疫情頗受爭(zhēng)議的立場(chǎng)一直是賣(mài)點(diǎn),,一些與《財(cái)富》雜志談話(huà)的人都認(rèn)為他特別親商業(yè)。

最近,,德桑蒂斯一些爭(zhēng)議性政策受到了人們審視,,例如從幼兒園到三年級(jí)禁止公立學(xué)校教師與學(xué)生討論性取向或性別認(rèn)同的法案很受爭(zhēng)議,反對(duì)者稱(chēng)之為“不要說(shuō)同性戀”(Don’t Say Gay)法案,。他在墮胎問(wèn)題上立場(chǎng)也更加強(qiáng)硬,,最近暫停了坦帕地區(qū)一名州檢察官的職務(wù),羅訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)被推翻后該檢察官承諾不執(zhí)行本州的新墮胎法,。

過(guò)去幾年一些搬到佛州的商業(yè)和創(chuàng)業(yè)人士很贊賞德桑蒂斯的執(zhí)政方式,。Bustle Digital Group的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官布萊恩·戈德堡就是其中之一,該集團(tuán)旗下包括Bustle,、W雜志(W Magazine)和Gawker等媒體網(wǎng)站,。他認(rèn)為,德桑蒂斯優(yōu)先考慮企業(yè)維持經(jīng)營(yíng)而不是執(zhí)行公共衛(wèi)生任務(wù),,所以很有吸引力:“他把經(jīng)濟(jì)放在首位,。”最近戈德堡告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,。他認(rèn)為,,經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去幾年,“不僅是佛羅里達(dá)州,,全美人民都相當(dāng)認(rèn)可德桑蒂斯當(dāng)州長(zhǎng)的表現(xiàn),。”至于2022年以后,“面臨的問(wèn)題不一樣,?!备甑卤ふf(shuō)。(根據(jù)德桑蒂斯的政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)的記錄,,7月戈德堡為其競(jìng)選連任捐贈(zèng)了1,000美元,。)

德桑蒂斯反對(duì)“企業(yè)覺(jué)醒”也獲得了戈德堡之類(lèi)企業(yè)家的共鳴:“我認(rèn)為企業(yè)應(yīng)該遠(yuǎn)離政治。這是迪士尼慘敗的教訓(xùn):首席執(zhí)行官不是民選官員,?!彼嬖V《財(cái)富》雜志。正如戈德堡所說(shuō),,近年來(lái),,不少首席執(zhí)行官就各種“社會(huì)和政治問(wèn)題”向員工發(fā)送新聞稿和內(nèi)部通訊?!斑@是錯(cuò)誤的,。很糟糕。首席執(zhí)行官只有一份工作,,就是有效地管理公司,。”他說(shuō),。(當(dāng)被問(wèn)及在影響員工的問(wèn)題上采取何種立場(chǎng)時(shí),,比如墮胎和推翻羅訴韋德案,戈德堡表示并不針對(duì)“某個(gè)特定問(wèn)題”,。)

其他人,例如Citadel的首席執(zhí)行官格里芬,,認(rèn)為德桑蒂斯跟迪士尼斗爭(zhēng)方面有些過(guò)分,。迪士尼批評(píng)了德桑蒂斯的《家長(zhǎng)教育權(quán)利法》(Parental Rights in Education law)或“不要說(shuō)同性戀”法案后,德桑蒂斯提出解除迪士尼作為特別稅區(qū)的地位,,格里芬認(rèn)為此舉更像是“報(bào)復(fù)”,。

德桑蒂斯針對(duì)科技巨頭的一些立場(chǎng),比如攻擊所謂的社交媒體審查,,并沒(méi)有影響佛州成為硅谷和華爾街外派人士尋找對(duì)商業(yè)更友好州時(shí)的熱門(mén)選擇,。過(guò)去幾年,從金融巨頭Citadel到Elliott Management Corp.等大公司都將總部遷至佛州,,還有聲名狼藉的投資者凱西·伍德掌管的資產(chǎn)管理公司ARK Investment Management(伍德一直是特朗普的支持者,,但拒絕就下屆選舉候選人的看法向《財(cái)富》雜志發(fā)表評(píng)論)。

然而,,德桑蒂斯也將矛頭對(duì)準(zhǔn)了投資管理行業(yè),,特別是嘲笑著重考慮環(huán)境、社會(huì)和治理因素的ESG投資,要求州管理委員會(huì)(State Board of Administration)的基金經(jīng)理在投資時(shí)不許考慮ESG,。不過(guò)對(duì)長(zhǎng)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資者,,也是貝寶幫(PayPal mafia)的基思·拉布瓦來(lái)說(shuō),此舉并未讓他反感,。拉布瓦如今在邁阿密的風(fēng)投公司Founders Fund,。“ESG投資就是欺詐,?!彼麑?duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,“所以如果有政客想傳達(dá)我們的觀點(diǎn),,我們肯定不會(huì)反對(duì),。”

佛州州長(zhǎng)“營(yíng)造的氛圍是,,這是創(chuàng)業(yè)的好地方,。這是人們感到興奮的主要原因?!蔽挥谶~阿密的早期投資和孵化公司帕累托控股(Pareto Holdings)的執(zhí)行合伙人愛(ài)德華·蘭多告訴《財(cái)富》雜志(蘭多住在佛州,,但因?yàn)樗欠▏?guó)公民,所以沒(méi)有資格在美國(guó)投票),。蘭多稱(chēng),,他的圈子里有人在談?wù)摰律5偎梗宜J(rèn)為,,“如果提出德桑迪斯是一位不錯(cuò)的候選人,,爭(zhēng)議比起支持特朗普就要小得多”。

坦率的保守派風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人拉布瓦和其他人一樣,,還在努力對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn):“顯然,,所有人都在等著看誰(shuí)參加競(jìng)選。確切得知候選人是誰(shuí)之前不必做決定,?!彼f(shuō)。不過(guò)拉布瓦表示,,不管是德桑蒂斯,,還是佛州參議員馬爾科·魯比奧或里克·斯科特或邁阿密市的市長(zhǎng)弗朗西斯·蘇亞雷斯,如果其中有人可以成為下一任總統(tǒng),,都會(huì)讓人“興奮”,,他認(rèn)為這幾位“都會(huì)得到佛州科技界和商界領(lǐng)袖的廣泛支持?!狈鹬葜?,他特別提出南卡羅來(lái)納州前州長(zhǎng)尼基·黑利和阿肯色州參議湯姆·科頓是“頂尖候選人”,,但不確定這幾人會(huì)不會(huì)參選。他宣稱(chēng):“我認(rèn)識(shí)的很多商界領(lǐng)袖都不會(huì)支持特朗普,?!?/p>

拉布瓦最關(guān)注的政策包括中美競(jìng)爭(zhēng);小企業(yè)和教育從疫情復(fù)蘇,;還有“佛州作為低稅和監(jiān)管寬松之地”促進(jìn)商業(yè)和“成功就業(yè)”,。他認(rèn)為,這些問(wèn)題都是德桑蒂斯能夠用來(lái)區(qū)分自己和他人的“問(wèn)題組合”,。但拉布瓦也承認(rèn),,在他的風(fēng)投和創(chuàng)業(yè)圈里“不談?wù)撨@些。太忙了,?!?/p>

除了佛羅里達(dá)本地人,“硅谷和科技界對(duì)特朗普評(píng)價(jià)不高,。未來(lái)估計(jì)不會(huì)有變化,,邁阿密科技圈想必也不會(huì)更熱情?!盉ustle Digital Group的戈德堡說(shuō),。他表示,科技和金融業(yè)向佛州大量轉(zhuǎn)移的結(jié)果是,,不少新來(lái)者“兩黨皆考慮”,,他相信大多數(shù)佛州人和科技界人士會(huì)支持德桑蒂斯。戈德堡認(rèn)為,,墮胎權(quán)等問(wèn)題對(duì)科技公司很重要,,德桑蒂斯可能必須謹(jǐn)慎行事:“成千上萬(wàn)人前往佛州開(kāi)始新生活,他們可不希望權(quán)利減少,?!彼ㄗh。

但很明顯,,“管理一個(gè)州是一回事,管理一國(guó)是另一回事,?!惫埠忘h長(zhǎng)期籌款人和律師埃里克·萊文指出?!昂芏嗳硕枷攵嗔私庖恍┧诮?jīng)濟(jì)方面的愿景,。”

展望2024年

盡管德桑蒂斯已經(jīng)收獲大量捐贈(zèng)者的支持,,他對(duì)2024年是否參選的謠言一直保持沉默,,可能原因是今年秋天即將舉行的中期選舉,,畢竟共和黨人希望控制參議院和眾議院。共和黨籌款人兼律師萊文認(rèn)為:“很難知道他們不表態(tài)是不是因?yàn)椴幌敕磳?duì)特朗普,,還是像我一樣,,只想繼續(xù)關(guān)注中期選舉?!焙芏鄨?bào)道顯示,,共和黨成員確實(shí)擔(dān)心11月之前特朗普宣布參加2024年大選,也有報(bào)道稱(chēng)特朗普正考慮中期選舉之后再宣布,。

不管捐贈(zèng)者是否已經(jīng)明確表態(tài),,從當(dāng)前思潮、媒體關(guān)注和民調(diào)來(lái)看,,德桑蒂斯已經(jīng)成為與特朗普角逐下屆大選的關(guān)鍵候選人,。“我認(rèn)為,,(2024年)如果德桑蒂斯的名字出現(xiàn),,部分原因就是大家都聽(tīng)說(shuō)過(guò)他?!比R文告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,。“這個(gè)月已經(jīng)有點(diǎn)感覺(jué),,因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在是認(rèn)名字階段,。”他表示,?!八鲜磕岫窢?zhēng);跟白宮首席醫(yī)療顧問(wèn)安東尼·福奇斗爭(zhēng),;還在跟加州州長(zhǎng)加文·紐瑟姆斗爭(zhēng),。”

但即便面對(duì)特朗普在全球聲名狼藉,,萊文還是認(rèn)為媒體關(guān)注不一定可以削弱其勝算,。“總有一些領(lǐng)先者——比如希拉里·克林頓,,2008年她怎么了,?或者2016年杰布·布什怎么了?當(dāng)年有誰(shuí)知名度和收入比杰布·布什高,?”他爭(zhēng)辯道,。“大選剛開(kāi)始知名度如何,,跟最后人們把票投給誰(shuí),,中間是有區(qū)別的,。”

當(dāng)然,,這還不是兩人競(jìng)選:萊文說(shuō),,關(guān)于2024年大選已經(jīng)聽(tīng)到人們談?wù)摪⒖仙輩⒆h員科頓、前國(guó)務(wù)卿邁克·蓬佩奧,、南卡羅來(lái)納州前州長(zhǎng)黑利,、前副總統(tǒng)邁克·彭斯和南卡羅萊納州參議員蒂姆·斯科特等(到目前為止,幾人的支持率遠(yuǎn)低于德桑蒂斯),。

即便特朗普因?yàn)?月6日國(guó)會(huì)暴亂而受到調(diào)查,,以及美國(guó)聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)為調(diào)查涉嫌不當(dāng)處理機(jī)密文件突擊搜查海湖莊園,特朗普在共和黨中的支持率仍然不可否認(rèn),,雖然根據(jù)一些民調(diào),,認(rèn)為他應(yīng)該再次參選的共和黨人比例有所下降。

長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),,特朗普的白宮前傳播總監(jiān),、SkyBridge Capital的創(chuàng)始人安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇一直直言批評(píng)德桑蒂斯。6月他告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,德桑蒂斯沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)擊敗特朗普,,特朗普最終會(huì)“打敗德桑蒂斯”。他認(rèn)為,,特朗普“非常善妒”,,“會(huì)在政治上明嘲暗諷地詆毀德桑蒂斯?!彼箍ɡ缕嫜a(bǔ)充說(shuō),,雖然特朗普“可能無(wú)法獲得共和黨提名……在失敗的過(guò)程中,他會(huì)毀掉德桑蒂斯,?!?/p>

猶他州共和黨主席喬根森等人打賭,“如果特朗普參選,,就仍然會(huì)得到基層群眾支持,。”他認(rèn)為“政治”人群眼中德桑蒂斯“除了刻薄推文,,就是另一個(gè)特朗普”,,或者正如《紐約客》(New Yorker)最近一篇文章中指出,“智慧版特朗普”,。但他認(rèn)為特朗普“仍然獲得民眾擁戴?!笔聦?shí)上,,特朗普的支持者吹噓他基層支持廣泛,。截至7月底,特朗普的“拯救美國(guó)政治行動(dòng)委員會(huì)”(Save America PAC,,據(jù)報(bào)道,,聯(lián)邦陪審團(tuán)正在就1月6日暴亂對(duì)其調(diào)查)擁有現(xiàn)金約9,900萬(wàn)美元(不過(guò)有報(bào)道稱(chēng),這筆錢(qián)不能用于2024年大選,,而且特朗普等待宣布2024年參選之際,,已經(jīng)面臨違反競(jìng)選法募集資金的指控)。

“很多人坐山觀虎斗,,因?yàn)橛行┤讼胫С痔乩势?,但又有點(diǎn)懷疑?!眴谈治龅?。也“有人想支持德桑蒂斯,但不敢出頭,,因?yàn)檫@么做很危險(xiǎn),。”

今夏猶他州籌款活動(dòng)上,,與會(huì)者觥籌交錯(cuò)間,,關(guān)于下屆大選的話(huà)題呼之欲出。但約根森清楚記得,,即使在德桑蒂斯自己的籌款活動(dòng)上,,談起2024年會(huì)對(duì)誰(shuí)感興趣時(shí)還是有人提到了另一個(gè)名字:特朗普。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:夏林

It was early afternoon in late July, and Carson Jorgensen was waiting in a decadent restaurant at the St. Regis hotel in Park City, Utah, along with a group of donors and business leaders, for the guest of honor to arrive.

Right on time, Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida whose star has risen rapidly over the past couple of years, appeared and efficiently worked through a photo line, before addressing the room over salads and chicken at lunch in the hotel’s RIME restaurant. With the majestic Rocky Mountains in the background, the group had assembled for the second of a pair of fundraising events for DeSantis in Utah in late July, raising money for his 2022 gubernatorial reelection campaign. Jorgensen, who serves as chair of the Utah Republican Party, recounts that the event was composed of some “upper-class donors” in “dressed-up casual” attire, as it was a “more expensive fundraiser,” he estimated (tickets to the lunch event reportedly went for $5,000 a pop). DeSantis spoke for about half an hour, Jorgensen remembers, touching on topics such as pushing back against supposedly “woke” corporations such as Disney, and how he opened up the economy in Florida during the pandemic.

It’s DeSantis’s unabashed pro-business, anti–political correctness stances, combined with just enough of former President Donald Trump’s pugnaciousness, that have earned him admiration among some of Florida’s increasingly powerful tech and finance set, some of whom wager he could ride the wave all the way to the White House in 2024.

The governor has amassed a wealthy crowd of donors in recent years: His supporters include billionaires like hedge fund Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, packaging materials tycoon Richard Uihlein, and Home Depot cofounder and former CEO Bernie Marcus, who have all donated to DeSantis’s political action committee Friends of Ron DeSantis within the past two years. DeSantis’s new largest donor is hotel mogul and aerospace entrepreneur Robert Bigelow, who chipped in a whopping $10 million in July. All told, DeSantis has raised a hefty $172 million as of Aug. 19, per OpenSecrets, a group that tracks political contributions. And though the Utah fundraiser was hosted to solely support DeSantis’s reelection campaign in Florida, attendees discussed his potential 2024 presidential aspirations, recalls Jorgensen. “He’s done a lot of things right,” Citadel CEO Griffin said of DeSantis onstage at the Milken Institute Global Conference in May, also noting that “he is unquestionably one of the forerunners in the Republican primary today.” Griffin has been a top DeSantis donor, giving $5 million to the governor in 2021.

Though DeSantis hasn’t announced plans to run for president yet, he’s emerged as the principal challenger to Trump, who’s heavily teased a potential 2024 bid. Most recent polls show Trump with a sizable lead over DeSantis (the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted between Aug. 19 and Aug. 21 showed Trump with a 39-point lead over DeSantis, the second-highest-ranking candidate), though DeSantis handily beats others in the hypothetical running.

But while DeSantis himself has developed a reputation for sparring with the press and issuing forceful and controversial opinions on everything from transgender athletes to his dislike of masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, his biggest backers are largely keeping mum about whether they think he’ll mount a run in 2024—or if they’d support him. Fortune reached out to more than a dozen of these (in fairness, sometimes tight-lipped billionaires) about DeSantis and they either didn’t return requests for comment or declined to speak on the record; DeSantis’s campaign also didn’t respond to multiple requests for an interview.

It will be some time before DeSantis would hypothetically announce a 2024 bid—he’s still zeroed in on the 2022 gubernatorial race in Florida. And without any candidates having yet thrown their hat in the ring for the 2024 presidential race, there are plenty of unknowns. But it’s clear that whether or not DeSantis would be among them, the Florida governor has garnered powerful and fervent backing from some of the biggest finance and tech players—not only in Florida, but in other parts of the country as well—for his immoderate, and often Trumpian, stances on controversial issues. Through his actions and words, he’s fueling that set of business leaders who think ESG investing is a joke; who don’t believe companies should be weighing in on social issues, or what DeSantis considers anti-“wokeness”; and those who believe the economy should be a top, if not the top, priority.

Whatever happens in 2024, DeSantis is influencing the conversation leading up to that race.

Support in the Miami business scene

Despite his tendency to take on the Establishment, DeSantis himself boasts a classic Ivy League résumé. He spent much of his childhood in Dunedin, Fla., where he played Little League baseball, then attended college at Yale University, where he was captain of the varsity baseball team. After graduating he went on to graduate from Harvard Law School.

Prior to politics, DeSantis served in the U.S. Navy as a legal adviser, and following active duty, as a federal prosecutor. In his earlier political career, he was a congressman for Florida from 2013 until 2018. He registered further on the national radar when former President Trump endorsed him for governor in the 2018 election, a decision Trump reportedly made after seeing DeSantis speak on Fox News.

But it wasn’t really until the pandemic that DeSantis’s star began to rise: With the surge of Silicon Valley and Wall Street transplants flocking to Florida in search of zero state income tax and an “open” state during lockdowns, he capitalized on the attention for eschewing public health guidelines and mandates regarding COVID-19 to focus on keeping businesses open during the early days of the pandemic. His controversial COVID stance has been a selling point for some in the business milieu, including some who spoke with Fortune, who perceive him as being particularly pro-business.

More recently, DeSantis has drawn scrutiny for some of his controversial policies, including the highly criticized bill prohibiting public school teachers from discussing sexual orientation or gender identity with students in kindergarten through third grade, dubbed by opponents as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill. He has also taken a harder stance on abortion, recently suspending a Tampa-area elected state attorney who promised not to enforce the state’s new abortion law following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Some of the business and entrepreneurial crowd who moved to the state over the past couple of years praise the way DeSantis has governed. One such transplant, Bryan Goldberg, founder and CEO of Bustle Digital Group (BDG), which operates media sites including Bustle, W Magazine, and Gawker, moved to Florida during the pandemic, and thinks DeSantis’s track record of prioritizing businesses staying open over public health mandates makes him appealing: “He’s a person who put the economy first,” Goldberg recently told Fortune. He argues that after the past couple of years, “it’s not just Florida—national sentiment has swung favorably toward DeSantis’s performance as governor.” But as to beyond 2022, “that’s a different question,” Goldberg says. (Goldberg donated $1,000 to DeSantis’s reelection campaign in July, per DeSantis’s PAC records.)

DeSantis’s agenda against what he considers “wokeness” resonates with entrepreneurs like Goldberg: “I think businesses need to stay out of politics. That’s the lesson from the Disney debacle: CEOs are not elected officials,” he told Fortune. In recent years, CEOs have sent press releases and communications to employees about various “social and political issues,” as Goldberg puts it. “That’s wrong. That’s bad. CEOs have one job, and that job is to run their company effectively,” he argues. (When asked about that stance regarding issues that affect employees, like abortion and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Goldberg said he was not “talking about any particular issue.”)

Others, like Citadel CEO Griffin, think DeSantis went too far in picking a fight with Disney. DeSantis went after the entertainment titan’s status as a special tax district following the company’s criticism of DeSantis’s Parental Rights in Education law or, colloquially, the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, and Griffin believed the move could look like “retaliation” from DeSantis.

Notwithstanding some of DeSantis’s stances, like targeting Big Tech, which he has attacked over what he calls social media censorship, Florida has become a hotspot for Silicon Valley and Wall Street expats seeking a more business-friendly state to set up shop. Large companies from financial titan Citadel to Elliott Management Corp. have moved their headquarters to Florida in the past couple of years, alongside asset management firm ARK Investment Management, run by infamous investor Cathie Wood (Wood has historically been a Trump supporter, but declined to comment to Fortune regarding her thoughts on candidates for the next election).

DeSantis has, however, taken aim at the investment management industry—specifically deriding ESG-focused investing, which takes into account environmental, social, and governance factors, in a ban for State Board of Administration (SBA) fund managers to consider ESG when investing. But those like longtime venture investor and PayPal mafia alum Keith Rabois of VC firm Founders Fund, who’s based in Miami, aren’t put off: “ESG investing is a fraud,” he opined to Fortune, so “if politicians want to reflect our views, we’re certainly not going to be opposed to that.”

The Florida governor “gives off this vibe that this is a great place to build a business. That is the main thing that I think people are excited about,” Edward Lando, managing partner at early-stage investment and incubation firm Pareto Holdings, based in Miami, told Fortune (Though he lives in Florida, Lando is a French citizen and isn’t eligible to vote in the U.S.). Among his circles, Lando says there’s chatter about DeSantis, and he contends “it’s much less controversial to say that you think DeSantis is an interesting candidate” than Trump.

Venture investor and outspoken conservative Rabois is, like others, still hedging: “Obviously, everybody’s just waiting to see who runs. There’s no reason to make a decision until you know who the candidates are,” he said. However Rabois said he’d be “excited” about either DeSantis, Florida Senators Marco Rubio or Rick Scott, or Miami Mayor Francis Suarez as the next president, arguing any of those “would have a lot of support across the board from tech and business community leaders in Florida.” Outside the state, he singled out former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton as “top-tier candidates,” though he isn’t sure if they’d run, and declared, “I don’t think many business leaders that I know are interested in supporting Trump.”

The biggest policies Rabois is focused on moving forward include U.S. competition with China; small-business and education recovery from the pandemic; and the “anti-tax and anti-regulation base of Florida” that “promotes” business and “successful jobs,” he says. They’re among a “portfolio of issues” he argues DeSantis can use to contrast himself with others. But among his VC and startup circles, Rabois admits, “We don’t talk about this stuff. I’m too busy.”

Beyond homegrown Floridians, “Silicon Valley and the tech community did not have a high opinion of President Trump. I don’t expect that to change in the future, nor do I expect the Miami tech scene to receive him much more warmly,” argues Bustle Digital Group’s Goldberg. The stream of tech and finance transplants into Florida has brought with it a crowd who, according to Goldberg, would “consider both parties,” though he believes most Floridians and the tech crowd will favor DeSantis. Issues like abortion rights are important to the tech group, Goldberg suggests, where DeSantis would likely have to tread a careful line: “Of the hundreds of thousands who have journeyed to Florida to start a new life, they’re not coming here in hopes of finding fewer rights,” he suggests.

But clearly, “it’s one thing to run a state—it’s another thing to run a country,” notes Eric Levine, a longtime GOP fundraiser and attorney. “A lot of people would want to know more about his economic vision.”

Looking ahead to 2024

Despite the support the governor has garnered from big-time donors, one possible reason for the general silence on 2024 rumors is the upcoming midterm elections this fall—where Republicans hope to take control of the Senate and the House. Levine, the GOP fundraiser and attorney, argues “it’s hard to know whether or not people are not coming out because they don’t want to cross Trump, or whether or not, like myself, [they] want to stay focused on the midterm elections.” Indeed, numerous reports suggest members of the Republican Party are concerned about Trump announcing a 2024 bid before November, though Trump is now reportedly considering waiting until after the elections.

But regardless if donors are saying it out loud yet, in terms of the zeitgeist, media attention, and polling, DeSantis has emerged as the key candidate to battle it out with Trump for the next election. “I think part of the reason why DeSantis’s name comes up [for 2024] is everyone’s heard of him,” Levine told Fortune. “There’s a little bit of a flavor of the month because it’s name recognition at this point,” he suggests. “He’s fighting with Disney; he’s fighting with [White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony] Fauci; he’s fighting with [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom.”

But even in the face of Trump’s worldwide notoriety, Levine, for one, doesn’t believe media attention is enough to cut it. “You always have these front-runners—I mean, Hillary Clinton, what happened to her in 2008? Or Jeb Bush in [20]16? Who had higher name recognition and more money than Jeb Bush?” he argues. “There’s a difference between name recognition at the very beginning of the process, and at the end of the day, you know, who you’re going to vote for.”

Certainly it’s not a two-person race just yet: Levine, for one, says he’s heard the names of Arkansas Sen. Cotton, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Governor of South Carolina Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott tossed around for 2024 (they’re polling far below DeSantis thus far).

And even in spite of the investigation into Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection and the recent FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago as part of an investigation into alleged mishandling of classified documents, Trump’s popularity among Republicans is still undeniable—even if, by some polls, the percentage of Republicans who think he should run again has waned somewhat.

Indeed, Trump’s former White House communications director and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who has long been a vocal critic of DeSantis, told Fortune back in June that he didn’t think DeSantis stood a chance at beating Trump, arguing that Trump would end up “killing DeSantis,” Scaramucci opined at the time. Trump “is a jealous guy,” he argued. “He’ll damage him politically, metaphorically.” Scaramucci added that while Trump “may not actually become the Republican nominee…on the way to not becoming the Republican nominee, I think he’s gonna destroy DeSantis.”

Those like Utah Republican Party chair Jorgensen wager “if Trump runs, he’s got the grass-roots folks still.” He believes the “political” crowd see DeSantis as “everything you get from Trump without the mean tweets”—or, as the New Yorker noted in a recent profile, “Trump with a brain”—but argues Trump is “still a champion amongst the people.” Indeed, Trump proponents tout that he still has formidable grass-roots support. Trump’s Save America PAC (which is reportedly being probed by a federal grand jury regarding Jan. 6) had roughly $99 million in cash on hand at the end of July (though reports say that money can’t be used for a 2024 campaign, and Trump is already facing accusations that he’s broken campaign laws in raising money while waiting to announce a 2024 run).

“You’re seeing a lot of people sit back and see what pans out, because I think there’s some people who want to support Trump that are a little leery of it,” Jorgensen theorizes. There are also “people who want to support DeSantis, but none of them dare stick their head out—because it’s a pretty dangerous place to be.”

Back in Utah earlier this summer, as the attendees of the gubernatorial fundraiser mingled, the topic of the next presidential election was on the tip of tongues—but even at DeSantis’s own event, Jorgensen remembers some attendees bringing up another name in conversations about who they’d be interested in for 2024: Trump.

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