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美國(guó)徹底放寬防疫政策,新冠疫情今秋“被結(jié)束”

Erin Prater
2022-09-15

如今,,大多數(shù)國(guó)家都轉(zhuǎn)向了“學(xué)會(huì)與病毒共存”的方式,,從而讓病毒自由傳播,。

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美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的最新版新冠疫情指南宣布放松防疫措施,,再加上奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針的出現(xiàn),,都非常清楚地表明:雇主只要希望員工重返辦公室,就可以強(qiáng)制要求他們回來(lái),。

美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心不再建議保持社交距離——即便你曾經(jīng)與感染這種有時(shí)致命的病毒的人有過(guò)密切接觸,也不建議進(jìn)行隔離,。研究人員表示,,建議隔離時(shí)間已經(jīng)縮短至五天——在這段時(shí)間里,仍然有許多人在傳播病毒,。接種奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針提供的保護(hù)似乎能夠進(jìn)一步允許雇主強(qiáng)制員工重返辦公室工作,。加強(qiáng)針有望提供良好的保護(hù),可以預(yù)防目前流行的奧密克戎亞型變異毒株BA.4,、BA.5及其后代引起的嚴(yán)重疾病和死亡,。但經(jīng)常被忽視的一點(diǎn)是:預(yù)計(jì)接種加強(qiáng)針不會(huì)預(yù)防感染,,也不能預(yù)防長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎(盡管接種加強(qiáng)針可能會(huì)降低被感染的可能性)。

如果說(shuō)以前不清楚的話(huà),,現(xiàn)在也清楚了:對(duì)符合條件的人來(lái)說(shuō),,居家辦公不再是一項(xiàng)真正的權(quán)利,而是一種特權(quán),。

至少在工作場(chǎng)所,,新冠肺炎疫情似乎在今年秋天就會(huì)結(jié)束了。

大多數(shù)員工不相信重返辦公室工作是安全的

根據(jù)Coresignal一份在夏季發(fā)布的報(bào)告,,甚至在8月美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心修訂新冠肺炎疫情指南和9月推進(jìn)奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針接種之前,,遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位就在減少。Coresignal是一家為投資情報(bào),、營(yíng)銷(xiāo)拓展和趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)等目的而匯編數(shù)據(jù)的公司,。

美國(guó)的遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位在2021年夏天達(dá)到頂峰,當(dāng)時(shí)德?tīng)査凅w在美國(guó)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,,許多企業(yè)的復(fù)工計(jì)劃被打亂,。該報(bào)告調(diào)查了2020年8月至今年3月的4,000多萬(wàn)個(gè)公開(kāi)招聘職位信息。報(bào)告顯示,,去年6月至8月,,遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位比例增加了近67%。

但是,,遠(yuǎn)程工作作為整體工作的一部分,,今年一直呈下降趨勢(shì)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),,截至2月,,只有10%到15%的工作機(jī)會(huì)允許遠(yuǎn)程工作。復(fù)工令和混合辦公政策正在增加,,盡管一些員工仍在反抗,。截至今年夏天,在雇主希望員工重返辦公室工作的員工中,,有略少于一半的人每周在辦公室工作五天,。

但根據(jù)皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)今年2月的一份報(bào)告,這些員工中的大多數(shù)并不是因?yàn)閾?dān)心感染新冠病毒而選擇待在家里,。他們說(shuō)他們更喜歡居家辦公,,有些人說(shuō)他們已經(jīng)完全搬離了辦公室。

那些至少有一些時(shí)間居家辦公的人告訴皮尤研究中心,,這樣做可以讓他們更好地平衡工作和個(gè)人生活,,并讓按時(shí)完成工作變得更容易,而不是更難。近75%的人表示,,他們不覺(jué)得搬家會(huì)影響他們晉升,。

另外,睡衣也是一大影響因素,。

在那些所有或大部分時(shí)間居家辦公的人中,,只有五分之一的人表示,如果被迫回到辦公室工作,,他們會(huì)感到很舒服,,只有三分之一的人表示,他們會(huì)勉強(qiáng)覺(jué)得舒服,。皮尤研究中心表示,,這可能是因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)完全居家辦公的員工對(duì)雇主采取的新冠肺炎疫情預(yù)防措施并不非常滿(mǎn)意。

疫情“被結(jié)束”

這是我們一直在尋求的結(jié)論:持續(xù)近三年的新冠肺炎疫情將結(jié)束,。新冠疫情僅在美國(guó)就造成近 1億人感染,,超過(guò) 100 萬(wàn)人死亡。

但我們無(wú)法在街上看到很多——或任何——聚會(huì)——當(dāng)然不是員工之間的聚會(huì),。皮尤研究中心表示,,超過(guò) 60%在外工作的人選擇不去辦公室工作。

公平地說(shuō),,很難慶祝一個(gè)人為的結(jié)局,。

這場(chǎng)疫情遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束——即使正如美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的醫(yī)生安東尼·福奇博士今年早些時(shí)候宣布的那樣,它的“急性期”已經(jīng)結(jié)束,。雖然在美國(guó),,病例似乎已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定到持續(xù)的地方性水平,但每天仍然有超過(guò)70,000例確診病例——而向公共衛(wèi)生當(dāng)局報(bào)告的檢測(cè)卻處于歷史最低水平,。每天仍然有大約310人死亡,,整個(gè)社會(huì)在過(guò)去數(shù)月和數(shù)年里對(duì)這個(gè)數(shù)字已經(jīng)麻木了,或者干脆忽略這個(gè)數(shù)字,。

和新冠肺炎疫情有關(guān)的廢水——也許是我們目前掌握的關(guān)于該疾病在社區(qū)中傳播的最好證據(jù)——新冠病例最近在美國(guó)許多地方處于或接近歷史最高水平,,這與檢測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)不符。

我們?nèi)匀徊淮_定接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么,。

今年春天,,白宮警告說(shuō),今年秋冬,,美國(guó)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)新冠肺炎病毒感染確診病例1億例,,并可能出現(xiàn)大量死亡病例。

目前尚不清楚是什么推動(dòng)了這波疫情,,目前BA.4和BA.5感染病例的激增似乎正趨于穩(wěn)定。約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)布隆伯格公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)的分子微生物學(xué)和免疫學(xué)系(Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology)的教授、病毒學(xué)家安德魯·佩科茨博士于9月8日表示,,可能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者包括奧密克戎亞型變異毒株BA.4.6和BA.2.75,。

這兩種變體都能夠部分逃避疫苗免疫,但新的加強(qiáng)針“應(yīng)該可以識(shí)別”這兩種變體,。不過(guò),,他說(shuō),今年秋天預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多的變體,。

佩科茨預(yù)計(jì)秋冬感染病例會(huì)出現(xiàn)“溫和”激增,。當(dāng)被問(wèn)及美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心的預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),一位發(fā)言人在上周告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,“大多數(shù)情況下,,新冠感染的住院率將與目前的水平相似,或在未來(lái)幾周緩慢下降”,,當(dāng)然,,這其中存在極大的不確定性。

截至發(fā)稿時(shí),,白宮發(fā)言人尚未回復(fù)更新秋冬新冠肺炎疫情預(yù)測(cè)的請(qǐng)求,。

疫苗泡沫破裂

包括福奇和新冠肺炎疫情沙皇阿希什博士在內(nèi)的白宮官員在上周宣布,每年接種一次新冠疫苗,,就像每年接種一次流感疫苗一樣,,可能會(huì)在不久的將來(lái)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。這一聲明進(jìn)一步證實(shí),,新冠肺炎疫情已經(jīng)(在某種程度上)接近尾聲,,或至少達(dá)到了可控的程度。

雖然人們希望疫苗能夠預(yù)防在今年秋天甚至長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的變體,,但一些專(zhuān)家已經(jīng)警告說(shuō),,這兩大期望是不切實(shí)際的——但愿是因?yàn)橐呙缑庖吣壳爸豢梢猿掷m(xù)四個(gè)月到六個(gè)月。

斯克里普斯研究所(Scripps Research)的分子醫(yī)學(xué)教授,、斯克里普斯研究轉(zhuǎn)化研究所(Scripps Research Translational Institute)的創(chuàng)始人及主任埃里克·托波爾博士上周在一條推文中稱(chēng):“我沒(méi)有看到任何證據(jù)表明,,在沒(méi)有更好的疫苗的情況下,每年接種一次新冠疫苗將如何提供持久的保護(hù),?!?/p>

他后來(lái)補(bǔ)充道:“用手頭的數(shù)據(jù)給人一種接種疫苗就能夠提供長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的保護(hù)([預(yù)防]嚴(yán)重疾病和死亡)的錯(cuò)誤印象是不可接受的?!?/p>

夏威夷大學(xué)馬諾阿分校(University of Hawai?i at Mānoa)的理論生物學(xué)家兼教授李·阿爾滕貝格博士在推特(Twitter)上指出,,即便是接種流感疫苗也不能提供長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的保護(hù),并引用了《臨床傳染病》(Clinical Infectious Diseases)2019年的一篇文章,,該文章稱(chēng)流感疫苗提供的保護(hù)最多只可以持續(xù)90天到160天,。

如此長(zhǎng)的保護(hù)時(shí)間通??赡苓m用于流感等季節(jié)性病毒。但是,,阿爾滕伯格和其他專(zhuān)家說(shuō),,新冠病毒不是季節(jié)性的,感染病例激增主要是由于新變體的出現(xiàn),。

阿爾滕貝格在推特上寫(xiě)道:“這種‘每年接種一次新冠疫苗’的論調(diào)比正常情況下更緊迫地否認(rèn)了新冠肺炎疫情的現(xiàn)實(shí)——試圖假裝它像流感——對(duì)人們說(shuō)這是流感,。”

歡迎回來(lái),?

如今,,大多數(shù)國(guó)家都轉(zhuǎn)向了“學(xué)會(huì)與病毒共存”的方式,從而讓病毒自由傳播,。要求員工重返辦公室工作是這種方法在工作場(chǎng)所的自然延伸,。

但雇主們?cè)S愿需謹(jǐn)慎。

接種疫苗并不能夠阻止新冠肺炎病毒的傳播——雖然這可能有助于減少罹患長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎的幾率,,但目前尚無(wú)定論,。

美國(guó)眾議院冠狀病毒危機(jī)小組委員會(huì)(House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis)于今年夏天表示,在感染過(guò)新冠的美國(guó)成年人中,,多達(dá)五分之一的人患有長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎,。患者在感染消失后出現(xiàn)持續(xù)的癥狀,。據(jù)估計(jì),,有100萬(wàn)美國(guó)人因?yàn)殚L(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎引發(fā)的并發(fā)癥而被迫離開(kāi)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。

今年夏天,,得克薩斯大學(xué)健康科學(xué)中心(University of Texas Health Science Center)的理療師莫尼卡·韋爾杜茲科-古鐵雷斯在委員會(huì)面前作證說(shuō):“我治療過(guò)許多護(hù)士和醫(yī)生——有些人已經(jīng)無(wú)法回到手術(shù)室,、前線(xiàn)或病人床邊?!?/p>

“跑馬拉松的人連一英里都走不動(dòng),。一位年輕的母親,一追著孩子跑,,心率就會(huì)達(dá)到180,,呼吸急促?!?/p>

據(jù)報(bào)道,,在海外,英國(guó)央行(Bank of England)的一位代表于今年夏天表示,,英國(guó)16歲至64歲人口的勞動(dòng)力參與率下降了約1.3%,。美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家也出現(xiàn)了類(lèi)似的趨勢(shì)。

雇主可以在辦公室學(xué)會(huì)與病毒共存——但長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎對(duì)員工的影響可能會(huì)再次困擾他們,。

這個(gè)秋天以及以后,,有一件事是肯定的,。用約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)衛(wèi)生安全中心(Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)的傳染病專(zhuān)家、高級(jí)學(xué)者阿梅什·阿達(dá)爾賈博士的話(huà)說(shuō),,新冠肺炎疫情不會(huì)消失,。

他最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“這種病毒……永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法根除,永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法被消滅,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

但是,,歡迎回來(lái),。

譯者:中慧言-王芳

美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心(U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的最新版新冠疫情指南宣布放松防疫措施,再加上奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針的出現(xiàn),,都非常清楚地表明:雇主只要希望員工重返辦公室,,就可以強(qiáng)制要求他們回來(lái)。

美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心不再建議保持社交距離——即便你曾經(jīng)與感染這種有時(shí)致命的病毒的人有過(guò)密切接觸,,也不建議進(jìn)行隔離,。研究人員表示,建議隔離時(shí)間已經(jīng)縮短至五天——在這段時(shí)間里,,仍然有許多人在傳播病毒,。接種奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針提供的保護(hù)似乎能夠進(jìn)一步允許雇主強(qiáng)制員工重返辦公室工作。加強(qiáng)針有望提供良好的保護(hù),,可以預(yù)防目前流行的奧密克戎亞型變異毒株BA.4,、BA.5及其后代引起的嚴(yán)重疾病和死亡。但經(jīng)常被忽視的一點(diǎn)是:預(yù)計(jì)接種加強(qiáng)針不會(huì)預(yù)防感染,,也不能預(yù)防長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎(盡管接種加強(qiáng)針可能會(huì)降低被感染的可能性),。

如果說(shuō)以前不清楚的話(huà),現(xiàn)在也清楚了:對(duì)符合條件的人來(lái)說(shuō),,居家辦公不再是一項(xiàng)真正的權(quán)利,,而是一種特權(quán)。

至少在工作場(chǎng)所,,新冠肺炎疫情似乎在今年秋天就會(huì)結(jié)束了,。

大多數(shù)員工不相信重返辦公室工作是安全的

根據(jù)Coresignal一份在夏季發(fā)布的報(bào)告,甚至在8月美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心修訂新冠肺炎疫情指南和9月推進(jìn)奧密克戎加強(qiáng)針接種之前,,遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位就在減少,。Coresignal是一家為投資情報(bào)、營(yíng)銷(xiāo)拓展和趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)等目的而匯編數(shù)據(jù)的公司,。

美國(guó)的遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位在2021年夏天達(dá)到頂峰,,當(dāng)時(shí)德?tīng)査凅w在美國(guó)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位,許多企業(yè)的復(fù)工計(jì)劃被打亂,。該報(bào)告調(diào)查了2020年8月至今年3月的4,000多萬(wàn)個(gè)公開(kāi)招聘職位信息,。報(bào)告顯示,,去年6月至8月,遠(yuǎn)程工作崗位比例增加了近67%,。

但是,,遠(yuǎn)程工作作為整體工作的一部分,今年一直呈下降趨勢(shì),。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),,截至2月,只有10%到15%的工作機(jī)會(huì)允許遠(yuǎn)程工作,。復(fù)工令和混合辦公政策正在增加,,盡管一些員工仍在反抗。截至今年夏天,,在雇主希望員工重返辦公室工作的員工中,,有略少于一半的人每周在辦公室工作五天。

但根據(jù)皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)今年2月的一份報(bào)告,,這些員工中的大多數(shù)并不是因?yàn)閾?dān)心感染新冠病毒而選擇待在家里,。他們說(shuō)他們更喜歡居家辦公,有些人說(shuō)他們已經(jīng)完全搬離了辦公室,。

那些至少有一些時(shí)間居家辦公的人告訴皮尤研究中心,,這樣做可以讓他們更好地平衡工作和個(gè)人生活,并讓按時(shí)完成工作變得更容易,,而不是更難,。近75%的人表示,他們不覺(jué)得搬家會(huì)影響他們晉升,。

另外,,睡衣也是一大影響因素。

在那些所有或大部分時(shí)間居家辦公的人中,,只有五分之一的人表示,,如果被迫回到辦公室工作,他們會(huì)感到很舒服,,只有三分之一的人表示,,他們會(huì)勉強(qiáng)覺(jué)得舒服。皮尤研究中心表示,,這可能是因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)完全居家辦公的員工對(duì)雇主采取的新冠肺炎疫情預(yù)防措施并不非常滿(mǎn)意,。

疫情“被結(jié)束”

這是我們一直在尋求的結(jié)論:持續(xù)近三年的新冠肺炎疫情將結(jié)束。新冠疫情僅在美國(guó)就造成近 1億人感染,,超過(guò) 100 萬(wàn)人死亡,。

但我們無(wú)法在街上看到很多——或任何——聚會(huì)——當(dāng)然不是員工之間的聚會(huì)。皮尤研究中心表示,,超過(guò) 60%在外工作的人選擇不去辦公室工作,。

公平地說(shuō),,很難慶祝一個(gè)人為的結(jié)局。

這場(chǎng)疫情遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束——即使正如美國(guó)總統(tǒng)的醫(yī)生安東尼·福奇博士今年早些時(shí)候宣布的那樣,,它的“急性期”已經(jīng)結(jié)束,。雖然在美國(guó),病例似乎已經(jīng)穩(wěn)定到持續(xù)的地方性水平,,但每天仍然有超過(guò)70,000例確診病例——而向公共衛(wèi)生當(dāng)局報(bào)告的檢測(cè)卻處于歷史最低水平,。每天仍然有大約310人死亡,整個(gè)社會(huì)在過(guò)去數(shù)月和數(shù)年里對(duì)這個(gè)數(shù)字已經(jīng)麻木了,,或者干脆忽略這個(gè)數(shù)字,。

和新冠肺炎疫情有關(guān)的廢水——也許是我們目前掌握的關(guān)于該疾病在社區(qū)中傳播的最好證據(jù)——新冠病例最近在美國(guó)許多地方處于或接近歷史最高水平,這與檢測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)不符,。

我們?nèi)匀徊淮_定接下來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么。

今年春天,,白宮警告說(shuō),,今年秋冬,美國(guó)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)新冠肺炎病毒感染確診病例1億例,,并可能出現(xiàn)大量死亡病例,。

目前尚不清楚是什么推動(dòng)了這波疫情,目前BA.4和BA.5感染病例的激增似乎正趨于穩(wěn)定,。約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)布隆伯格公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)的分子微生物學(xué)和免疫學(xué)系(Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology)的教授,、病毒學(xué)家安德魯·佩科茨博士于9月8日表示,可能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者包括奧密克戎亞型變異毒株BA.4.6和BA.2.75,。

這兩種變體都能夠部分逃避疫苗免疫,,但新的加強(qiáng)針“應(yīng)該可以識(shí)別”這兩種變體。不過(guò),,他說(shuō),,今年秋天預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多的變體。

佩科茨預(yù)計(jì)秋冬感染病例會(huì)出現(xiàn)“溫和”激增,。當(dāng)被問(wèn)及美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心的預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),,一位發(fā)言人在上周告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,“大多數(shù)情況下,,新冠感染的住院率將與目前的水平相似,,或在未來(lái)幾周緩慢下降”,當(dāng)然,,這其中存在極大的不確定性,。

截至發(fā)稿時(shí),白宮發(fā)言人尚未回復(fù)更新秋冬新冠肺炎疫情預(yù)測(cè)的請(qǐng)求,。

疫苗泡沫破裂

包括福奇和新冠肺炎疫情沙皇阿希什博士在內(nèi)的白宮官員在上周宣布,,每年接種一次新冠疫苗,,就像每年接種一次流感疫苗一樣,可能會(huì)在不久的將來(lái)成為現(xiàn)實(shí),。這一聲明進(jìn)一步證實(shí),,新冠肺炎疫情已經(jīng)(在某種程度上)接近尾聲,或至少達(dá)到了可控的程度,。

雖然人們希望疫苗能夠預(yù)防在今年秋天甚至長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的變體,,但一些專(zhuān)家已經(jīng)警告說(shuō),這兩大期望是不切實(shí)際的——但愿是因?yàn)橐呙缑庖吣壳爸豢梢猿掷m(xù)四個(gè)月到六個(gè)月,。

斯克里普斯研究所(Scripps Research)的分子醫(yī)學(xué)教授,、斯克里普斯研究轉(zhuǎn)化研究所(Scripps Research Translational Institute)的創(chuàng)始人及主任埃里克·托波爾博士上周在一條推文中稱(chēng):“我沒(méi)有看到任何證據(jù)表明,在沒(méi)有更好的疫苗的情況下,,每年接種一次新冠疫苗將如何提供持久的保護(hù),。”

他后來(lái)補(bǔ)充道:“用手頭的數(shù)據(jù)給人一種接種疫苗就能夠提供長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的保護(hù)([預(yù)防]嚴(yán)重疾病和死亡)的錯(cuò)誤印象是不可接受的,?!?/p>

夏威夷大學(xué)馬諾阿分校(University of Hawai?i at Mānoa)的理論生物學(xué)家兼教授李·阿爾滕貝格博士在推特(Twitter)上指出,即便是接種流感疫苗也不能提供長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的保護(hù),,并引用了《臨床傳染病》(Clinical Infectious Diseases)2019年的一篇文章,,該文章稱(chēng)流感疫苗提供的保護(hù)最多只可以持續(xù)90天到160天。

如此長(zhǎng)的保護(hù)時(shí)間通??赡苓m用于流感等季節(jié)性病毒,。但是,阿爾滕伯格和其他專(zhuān)家說(shuō),,新冠病毒不是季節(jié)性的,,感染病例激增主要是由于新變體的出現(xiàn)。

阿爾滕貝格在推特上寫(xiě)道:“這種‘每年接種一次新冠疫苗’的論調(diào)比正常情況下更緊迫地否認(rèn)了新冠肺炎疫情的現(xiàn)實(shí)——試圖假裝它像流感——對(duì)人們說(shuō)這是流感,?!?/p>

歡迎回來(lái)?

如今,,大多數(shù)國(guó)家都轉(zhuǎn)向了“學(xué)會(huì)與病毒共存”的方式,,從而讓病毒自由傳播。要求員工重返辦公室工作是這種方法在工作場(chǎng)所的自然延伸,。

但雇主們?cè)S愿需謹(jǐn)慎,。

接種疫苗并不能夠阻止新冠肺炎病毒的傳播——雖然這可能有助于減少罹患長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎的幾率,但目前尚無(wú)定論,。

美國(guó)眾議院冠狀病毒危機(jī)小組委員會(huì)(House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis)于今年夏天表示,,在感染過(guò)新冠的美國(guó)成年人中,多達(dá)五分之一的人患有長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎?;颊咴诟腥鞠Ш蟪霈F(xiàn)持續(xù)的癥狀,。據(jù)估計(jì),有100萬(wàn)美國(guó)人因?yàn)殚L(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎引發(fā)的并發(fā)癥而被迫離開(kāi)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),。

今年夏天,,得克薩斯大學(xué)健康科學(xué)中心(University of Texas Health Science Center)的理療師莫尼卡·韋爾杜茲科-古鐵雷斯在委員會(huì)面前作證說(shuō):“我治療過(guò)許多護(hù)士和醫(yī)生——有些人已經(jīng)無(wú)法回到手術(shù)室、前線(xiàn)或病人床邊,?!?/p>

“跑馬拉松的人連一英里都走不動(dòng)。一位年輕的母親,,一追著孩子跑,,心率就會(huì)達(dá)到180,呼吸急促,?!?/p>

據(jù)報(bào)道,在海外,,英國(guó)央行(Bank of England)的一位代表于今年夏天表示,,英國(guó)16歲至64歲人口的勞動(dòng)力參與率下降了約1.3%。美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家也出現(xiàn)了類(lèi)似的趨勢(shì),。

雇主可以在辦公室學(xué)會(huì)與病毒共存——但長(zhǎng)期新冠肺炎對(duì)員工的影響可能會(huì)再次困擾他們。

這個(gè)秋天以及以后,,有一件事是肯定的,。用約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)衛(wèi)生安全中心(Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)的傳染病專(zhuān)家、高級(jí)學(xué)者阿梅什·阿達(dá)爾賈博士的話(huà)說(shuō),,新冠肺炎疫情不會(huì)消失,。

他最近對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“這種病毒……永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法根除,永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法被消滅,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

但是,歡迎回來(lái),。

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The latest loosened COVID guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the advent of Omicron boosters make it exceedingly clear: Employers that want workers to return to the office can demand it, and will.

Social-distancing is no longer recommended—nor is quarantining if you’ve been in close contact with someone with the sometimes deadly virus. The suggested quarantine length was lowered to five days—a time at which many people still spread the virus, according to researchers. Protection from Omicron boosters seemingly serves as further permission for employers to compel workers to return. Boosters are expected to provide good protection against severe disease and death from dominant circulating strains BA.4, BA.5, and their offspring. A point often missed: They’re not expected to provide protection from infection and aren’t known to prevent long COVID (though they may reduce the likelihood of it).

If it wasn’t clear before, it is now: Working from home is no longer a veritable right for those eligible, but a privilege.

In the workplace, at least, COVID seems over this fall.

Most workers aren’t confident RTO is safe

Even before the August revision to CDC’s COVID guidance and the September deployment of Omicron boosters, remote-eligible jobs were on the decline, according to a summer report from Coresignal, a business that compiles data for investment intelligence, lead generation, and trend forecasting, among other purposes.

U.S. remote working peaked during the summer of 2021, when the Delta variant became dominant in the U.S., scuttling the return-to-office plans of many businesses. The percent of jobs available for remote work increased by nearly 67% from June through August of last year, according to the report, which examined more than 40 million public job postings from August 2020 through March of this year.

But remote jobs, as a share of overall jobs, have been on a downward trend this year. As of February, only 10% to 15% of job offerings allowed remote work, the study found. Return-to-work mandates and hybrid policies are on the rise, though some workers are still defying them. As of this summer, slightly less than half of workers whose employers expected them to return to the office were going in five days a week.

But most of those workers aren’t sheltering at home because they’re concerned about COVID, according to a February Pew Research Center report. They say they prefer to work from home–and some say they’ve relocated away from the office altogether.

Those working from home at least some of the time told Pew that doing so allows them to better balance work with their personal lives, and that it’s made finishing work and meeting deadlines easier, not harder. And nearly 75% say they don’t feel the move home has affected their ability to work their way up the ladder.

Plus, pajamas.

Of those who are working at home all or most of the time, only a fifth say they’d be very comfortable returning to the office if they were compelled to, and only a third say they’d be somewhat comfortable. This is likely because most employees who work solely from home are not fully satisfied with coronavirus-prevention measures put in place by their employers, according to Pew.

A manufactured ending

It’s the conclusion we’ve all been seeking: an end to the nearly three-year scourge called COVID, which has caused nearly 1 billion illnesses and more than 1 million deaths in the U.S. alone.

But there’s not a lot of–or any–partying in the streets to be witnessed–certainly not among workers. More than 60% who are employed outside of the home and have a choice do not go into the office, according to Pew.

To be fair, it’s hard to celebrate a manufactured ending.

The pandemic is far from over–even if, as presidential physician Dr. Anthony Fauci declared earlier this year, its “acute phase” is. While cases appear to have plateaued to a persistent, endemic level in the U.S., more than 70,000 cases are being diagnosed each day–and this while testing reported to public health authorities is at an all-time low. Deaths still sit around 310 a day, a number society has collectively numbed to over the months and years, or flat-out chosen to ignore.

Wastewater levels of COVID–perhaps the best tell we currently have of the disease’s spread in a community–were recently at or around all-time highs in many U.S. locations, belying testing data.

And we’re still unsure of what’s to come.

The White House this spring warned that the U.S. could see 100 million COVID infections this fall and winter, and potentially a sizable wave of deaths.

It’s currently unknown what might fuel this wave, as the current surge of BA.4 and BA.5 and spawns appears to be leveling off. Possible contenders include Omicron spinoffs BA.4.6 and BA.2.75, Dr. Andrew Pekosz, a virologist and professor at the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said on September 8.

Both variants are able to partially evade vaccine immunity but “should be recognized” by the new booster. Still, more variants are expected this fall, he said.

Pekosz expects a “moderate” fall/winter surge. When asked about the CDC’s projections, a spokesman last week told Fortune that “most scenarios indicate that hospitalization rates from COVID-19 infection will be similar to current rates or decline slowly over the next few weeks,” though there is, of course, a high level of uncertainty.

As of press time, a White House spokesperson had not replied to a request for an updated fall/winter COVID forecast.

Bursting the vaccine bubble

Annual COVID vaccines, much like annual flu shots, will likely be a thing of the near future, White House officials including Fauci and COVID czar Dr. Ashish declared last week. The announcement further bolstered the case that the pandemic has (kind of) drawn to a close, or at least reached a more manageable point.

While the hope is that the vaccines hold up to variants this fall and perhaps even as long as a year, some experts are already warning that the duo’s expectations are unrealistic–if only because vaccine immunity currently only lasts four to six months.

“I don’t see any evidence for how an annual COVID shot will provide durable protection … without better vaccines,” Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said last week in a tweet.

“To give a false impression of year-long protection ([against] severe disease and death) with the data in hand is not acceptable,” he later added.

Even the flu vaccine doesn’t offer year-long protection, Dr. Lee Altenberg, a theoretical biologist and professor at the University of Hawai?i at Mānoa, pointed out via tweet, citing a 2019 article from Clinical Infectious Diseases that says the flu shot’s protection lasts only 90 to 160 days at most.

Such a length of protection may generally work with a seasonal virus like the flu. But COVID isn’t seasonal, Altenberg and other experts say, with surges primarily driven by new variants.

“This ‘a(chǎn)nnual COVID shot’ is more urgency-of-normal denial of the pandemic’s reality—an attempt to pretend it is like the flu—to gaslight people [that] it’s the flu,” Altenberg tweeted.

Welcome back?

Now, most countries have shifted to an approach of “l(fā)earning to live” with the virus and, thus, letting it spread freely. Demands that workers return to the office are a natural extension of this approach in the workplace.

But employers might be careful what they wish for.

Vaccinations don’t prevent the spread of COVID–and while they may help reduce the chances of getting long COVID, the jury is still out.

Up to one in five American adults who’ve lived through COVID-19 are living with long COVID, the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis said this summer. It’s a condition defined by symptoms that persist or appear long after the initial COVID infection is gone. An estimated 1 million Americans have been forced to leave the labor force because of medical complications from the nascent condition.

“I have treated many nurses and physicians—some have not been able to return to the operating room or to the front line or the patient bedside,” Dr. Monica Verduzco-Gutierrez, a physiatrist from the University of Texas Health Science Center, testified before the committee this summer.

“Marathon runners who cannot even walk a mile. A young mother who can’t run after her children without her heart rate going to 180 and getting short of breath.”

Overseas, labor force participation in the U.K. has dropped by around 1.3% for the population aged 16 to 64, a Bank of England representative reportedly said this summer. Similar trends are being seen in the U.S. and abroad.

Employers can learn to live with the virus at the office–but the impact of long COVID on the workforce may come back to haunt them.

This fall and forevermore, one thing is certain. In the words of Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, COVID isn’t going anywhere.

“The virus … can never be eradicated, never be eliminated,” he recently told Fortune.

But, welcome back.

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