亞洲經(jīng)濟或能躲過奧密克戎這一劫
巴益明（Eamon Barrett）
2021-12-02
新冠病毒的新變種奧密克戎（Omicron）的出現(xiàn)，可能會影響全球經(jīng)濟從新冠疫情中復蘇的過程,，因為各國為了遏制奧密克戎的傳播,，紛紛恢復了旅行限制。但摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在11月28日的一份報告中指出,，得益于高疫苗接種率,，亞洲經(jīng)濟受到的影響可能沒有那么大。
“相較于2021年中德爾塔變種在亞洲爆發(fā)引發(fā)的危機,，當?shù)噩F(xiàn)在的新冠疫苗接種水平比那時高多了,。”摩根士丹利的研究人員說,，“在12個經(jīng)濟體中,，其中10個至少70%的人口已經(jīng)接種了一劑疫苗?！?/p>
摩根士丹利列出的12個經(jīng)濟體分別是韓國、馬來西亞,、新加坡,、澳大利亞、中國,、日本,、歐元區(qū)、印度,、美國,、中國香港、印度尼西亞和菲律賓,，后兩國的接種率分別只有63%和56%,。但摩根士丹利預測，印度尼西亞和菲律賓將在三個月內(nèi)實現(xiàn)第一針疫苗100%全覆蓋。
目前,，人們尚不清楚新冠疫苗對這種新毒株的保護率,。以往的經(jīng)驗表明，疫苗對新變種的免疫效力往往沒有原始毒株那么高,，但注射疫苗可以降低感染后重癥的風險,。摩根士丹利對此持樂觀態(tài)度，稱“更大的可能性是,，這種新變種會降低但不會完全消除疫苗的效力,。”
摩根士丹利預計,，奧密克戎將對亞洲經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成短期風險,，其影響在明年第一季度會最明顯，最終“取決于新冠疫情的演變”,。該機構(gòu)認為,，今年最后一季度，亞洲將保持1.9%的季度環(huán)比增長,。
然而,，摩根士丹利的預測有一個重要基礎：最終證明奧密克戎并不比德爾塔“更具挑戰(zhàn)性”。德爾塔變種自去年年底在印度出現(xiàn)后,，已經(jīng)成為全球的主流毒株,。盡管早期跡象表明，新變種比德爾塔具有更高的傳播能力,，但科學家表示需要兩周時間來更好地了解奧密克戎的毒性,。
亞洲各地對新冠疫情的應對可能也會使奧密克戎對亞洲各經(jīng)濟體的影響出現(xiàn)差異。摩根士丹利稱,，奧密克戎對印度和東盟（ASEAN）造成直接影響的風險更大,，因為這些經(jīng)濟體的邊境相對開放，“當病例急劇上升時,，往往會收緊限制”,。
如果印度和東盟的制造商被迫暫停生產(chǎn)，可能會擾亂全球供應鏈,。然而,，由于中國嚴格的邊境管控措施和“清零”政策，中國的制造業(yè)不太可能受到奧密克戎的直接影響,。
摩根士丹利表示：“我們確實認為（奧密克戎對供應鏈的）影響將是暫時的,，因為全球需求仍然十分旺盛，而且……還有大量積壓的訂單需要處理,?！?/p>
與此同時,，高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）推遲對其經(jīng)濟預測做出相應調(diào)整，擬待對奧密克戎有更多了解后再有針對性地進行修正,。但高盛集團推測,，新變種可能會給明年第一季度的全球經(jīng)濟增長帶來2.5個百分點的負面影響。不過其仍然認為,，與之前的新毒株相比,，世界對奧密克戎的準備更加充分。
高盛集團的分析師在一份報告中稱：“最終,，奧密克戎可能對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生相當大的影響,，而對醫(yī)療和經(jīng)濟方面的影響范圍將十分廣泛?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）
譯者：Agatha
新冠病毒的新變種奧密克戎（Omicron）的出現(xiàn),，可能會影響全球經(jīng)濟從新冠疫情中復蘇的過程，因為各國為了遏制奧密克戎的傳播,，紛紛恢復了旅行限制,。但摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）在11月28日的一份報告中指出，得益于高疫苗接種率,，亞洲經(jīng)濟受到的影響可能沒有那么大,。
“相較于2021年中德爾塔變種在亞洲爆發(fā)引發(fā)的危機，當?shù)噩F(xiàn)在的新冠疫苗接種水平比那時高多了,?！蹦Ω康だ难芯咳藛T說，“在12個經(jīng)濟體中,，其中10個至少70%的人口已經(jīng)接種了一劑疫苗,。”
摩根士丹利列出的12個經(jīng)濟體分別是韓國,、馬來西亞,、新加坡、澳大利亞,、中國,、日本、歐元區(qū),、印度、美國,、中國香港,、印度尼西亞和菲律賓，后兩國的接種率分別只有63%和56%,。但摩根士丹利預測,，印度尼西亞和菲律賓將在三個月內(nèi)實現(xiàn)第一針疫苗100%全覆蓋。
目前，人們尚不清楚新冠疫苗對這種新毒株的保護率,。以往的經(jīng)驗表明,，疫苗對新變種的免疫效力往往沒有原始毒株那么高，但注射疫苗可以降低感染后重癥的風險,。摩根士丹利對此持樂觀態(tài)度,，稱“更大的可能性是，這種新變種會降低但不會完全消除疫苗的效力,?！?/p>
摩根士丹利預計，奧密克戎將對亞洲經(jīng)濟構(gòu)成短期風險,，其影響在明年第一季度會最明顯,，最終“取決于新冠疫情的演變”。該機構(gòu)認為,，今年最后一季度,，亞洲將保持1.9%的季度環(huán)比增長。
然而,，摩根士丹利的預測有一個重要基礎：最終證明奧密克戎并不比德爾塔“更具挑戰(zhàn)性”,。德爾塔變種自去年年底在印度出現(xiàn)后，已經(jīng)成為全球的主流毒株,。盡管早期跡象表明,，新變種比德爾塔具有更高的傳播能力，但科學家表示需要兩周時間來更好地了解奧密克戎的毒性,。
亞洲各地對新冠疫情的應對可能也會使奧密克戎對亞洲各經(jīng)濟體的影響出現(xiàn)差異,。摩根士丹利稱，奧密克戎對印度和東盟（ASEAN）造成直接影響的風險更大,，因為這些經(jīng)濟體的邊境相對開放,，“當病例急劇上升時，往往會收緊限制”,。
如果印度和東盟的制造商被迫暫停生產(chǎn),，可能會擾亂全球供應鏈。然而,，由于中國嚴格的邊境管控措施和“清零”政策,，中國的制造業(yè)不太可能受到奧密克戎的直接影響。
摩根士丹利表示：“我們確實認為（奧密克戎對供應鏈的）影響將是暫時的,，因為全球需求仍然十分旺盛,，而且……還有大量積壓的訂單需要處理?！?/p>
與此同時,，高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）推遲對其經(jīng)濟預測做出相應調(diào)整,，擬待對奧密克戎有更多了解后再有針對性地進行修正。但高盛集團推測,，新變種可能會給明年第一季度的全球經(jīng)濟增長帶來2.5個百分點的負面影響,。不過其仍然認為，與之前的新毒株相比,，世界對奧密克戎的準備更加充分,。
高盛集團的分析師在一份報告中稱：“最終，奧密克戎可能對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生相當大的影響,，而對醫(yī)療和經(jīng)濟方面的影響范圍將十分廣泛,。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：Agatha
The emergence of the new COVID-19 variant, called Omicron, could jeopardize the world’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, as economies reinstate travel restrictions to combat Omicron’s spread. But, in a report on November 28, Morgan Stanley said economic fallout would likely be limited in Asia, largely owing to high vaccination rates.
“Relative to the outbreak of the Delta variant in Asia in mid-2021, we now have much higher levels of vaccination,” Morgan Stanley researchers said. “Out of 12 economies, 10 already have at least 70% of their population inoculated with one dose of vaccine.”
The 12 economies Morgan Stanley lists are Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, China, Japan, the Euro Area, India, the U.S., Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with the latter two achieving only 63% and 56% coverage, respectively. But Morgan Stanley predicts Indonesia and the Philippines will achieve 100% first-dose coverage over the next three months.
Currently, little is known about the efficacy of vaccines on the new variant. Vaccines have proved less effective in preventing infection from previous COVID-19 variants, when compared to their efficacy at warding off the original virus, but the jabs have reduced the severity of infections from variants. Morgan Stanley is optimistic, saying “it is possible that the new variant may reduce but not eliminate vaccine efficacy.”
The bank expects Omicron will pose an immediate short-term risk to economies in Asia, with consequences most visible in the first quarter of next year, “depending on the evolution of the outbreak.” Morgan Stanley expects Asia will hold 1.9% quarter-on-quarter growth for the three months to December.
Morgan Stanley’s predictions, however, are based on a major caveat: that Omicron proves to be “not more challenging” than the Delta variant, which became the world’s dominant strain after emerging in India late last year. Although early indications suggest the new variant has higher transmissibility than the Delta variant, scientists say they need two weeks to better understand the virulence of Omicron.
Local responses to the pandemic will likely differentiate the economic fallout of Omicron across Asia, too. Omicron poses a greater immediate risk of disruption to India and ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Morgan Stanley says, because those economies have relatively open borders and have “tended to tighten restrictions when cases rise sharply.”
Such a move could disrupt global supply lines, if manufacturers in India and ASEAN are forced to suspend production. However, manufacturing in China is unlikely to be directly impacted by Omicron, owing to the country’s strict border controls and “COVID-zero” policy.
“We do expect that the impact [of Omicron on supply chains] will be temporary—global demand is still running red-hot, and…there is a backlog of orders to work through,” Morgan Stanley says.
Meanwhile Goldman Sachs is holding off on making Omicron-related changes to its economic forecasts until more is known about the virus, but it speculates that the variant could stilt global economic growth by 2.5 percentage points in the first quarter of next year. Still the bank agrees that the world is better equipped to respond to Omicron than it was for previous variants.
“The upshot is that Omicron could have sizable growth effects, but that the range of medical and therefore economic outcomes remains unusually wide,” Goldman economists said in a note.
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