由于通脹水平的不斷上升,,評(píng)論美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬?拜登的人士正在批評(píng)其經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,投資者和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也正為此感到擔(dān)憂(yōu),。然而,,盡管一些觀察家似乎對(duì)通脹的前景憂(yōu)心不已,,但面對(duì)溫和的通脹水平,大多數(shù)美國(guó)民眾無(wú)需感到焦慮,。事實(shí)上,,眾多美國(guó)民眾,尤其是那些不怎么富裕的人群,,實(shí)際上將受益于通脹水平的上升,。
我職業(yè)生涯的大部分時(shí)間都供職于貝萊德集團(tuán)(BlackRock Group),從事風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作,,與華爾街打交道,。在2007年至2008年的金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后,我?guī)椭y行,、政府和私營(yíng)公司評(píng)估其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,。
一些看似風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高的事件實(shí)際上并不具有真正的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。當(dāng)我審視眼下的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況時(shí),,通脹便是如此,。我們基本上沒(méi)有必要對(duì)當(dāng)前的通脹感到坐臥不安,尤其是對(duì)數(shù)千萬(wàn)舉步維艱的美國(guó)民眾來(lái)說(shuō),,通脹還存在一個(gè)鮮有人討論的益處,。
2021年,我們到目前為止看到的所有證據(jù)都表明,,工資在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),,企業(yè)在重新開(kāi)業(yè),美國(guó)民眾又重新加入勞動(dòng)大軍,。由于債務(wù)的真實(shí)價(jià)值有可能會(huì)隨著通脹的上升而縮水,,但工資卻在隨著通脹的增長(zhǎng)而增加,因此更多的美國(guó)民眾有望受益于更高的通脹水平,,而且這一比例比你想象的還要高,。
如果你在償還抵押貸款,或擁有大量其他債務(wù),,例如學(xué)生貸款,,通脹可能對(duì)你是有益的。盡管你的抵押貸款毫無(wú)變化,,但房子的價(jià)值在增長(zhǎng),這些收益都是你的,,哪怕你只是支付了房子的首付款,。你的收入增幅通常略高于通脹水平,但你的絕大部分支出都不會(huì)上漲,,這樣你就有更多的錢(qián)去消費(fèi)或儲(chǔ)蓄,。
另一方面,,對(duì)向他人貸款的銀行或投資者來(lái)說(shuō),通脹可能會(huì)帶來(lái)不利影響,,因?yàn)槟阈枰蚬と酥Ц陡嗟墓べY,,但卻沒(méi)有任何額外的收入。
然而,,這一部分人群的數(shù)量要比持有大量債務(wù)的人群少得多,。位于底部的一半美國(guó)民眾實(shí)際上的凈財(cái)富總額為負(fù)值,其總債務(wù)要高于其財(cái)富,。然而,,銀行家和投資者對(duì)評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、分析師和商業(yè)新聞主持人有著莫大的影響力,。
這并不是說(shuō)通脹越高越好,。然而,相對(duì)于超高的通脹本身,,那些推薦用于預(yù)防通脹的手段對(duì)每天工作的蕓蕓大眾來(lái)說(shuō)更加不利,。如果出現(xiàn)二選一的情形,一邊是4%的通脹加2萬(wàn)億美元的額外聯(lián)邦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開(kāi)支,,而另一邊是2%的通脹加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案的取消,,那么很明顯,第一個(gè)選項(xiàng)對(duì)絕大部分的美國(guó)民眾來(lái)說(shuō)更有利,。
需要明確的是,,這并非是一個(gè)我們不得不做出的抉擇。那些看衰通脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家數(shù)十年來(lái)一直都重復(fù)著同樣的說(shuō)辭,,但他們每一次都是錯(cuò)的,。事實(shí)在于,魚(yú)和熊掌并非不能兼得,。
那些主推通脹緩解政策的華爾街銀行家和投資者的利益不應(yīng)該凌駕于大多數(shù)美國(guó)民眾的利益之上,,因?yàn)樵诿绹?guó)走出新冠疫情陰影之際,這些美國(guó)民眾迫切需要救助,。
所有人都意識(shí)到,,穩(wěn)定的美元價(jià)值是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活力至關(guān)重要的組成部分。然而,,我們沒(méi)有令人信服的理由去采取限制經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的舉措,,因?yàn)檫@種限制僅僅是為了讓通脹下降那點(diǎn)微不足道的百分比,但恢復(fù)舉措實(shí)際上能夠幫助那些需要金融支持的民眾,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
莫里斯?珀?duì)柺恰皭?ài)國(guó)百萬(wàn)富翁”(Patriotic Millionaires)團(tuán)體的主席,,亦是貝萊德集團(tuán)的前董事總經(jīng)理。他著有《向富人征稅:謊言,、漏洞和說(shuō)客如何讓富人變得更富》(Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer)一書(shū),。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
由于通脹水平的不斷上升,,評(píng)論美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬?拜登的人士正在批評(píng)其經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,投資者和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也正為此感到擔(dān)憂(yōu),。然而,,盡管一些觀察家似乎對(duì)通脹的前景憂(yōu)心不已,但面對(duì)溫和的通脹水平,,大多數(shù)美國(guó)民眾無(wú)需感到焦慮,。事實(shí)上,眾多美國(guó)民眾,,尤其是那些不怎么富裕的人群,,實(shí)際上將受益于通脹水平的上升。
我職業(yè)生涯的大部分時(shí)間都供職于貝萊德集團(tuán)(BlackRock Group),,從事風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作,,與華爾街打交道。在2007年至2008年的金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后,,我?guī)椭y行,、政府和私營(yíng)公司評(píng)估其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平。
一些看似風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高的事件實(shí)際上并不具有真正的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。當(dāng)我審視眼下的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況時(shí),,通脹便是如此。我們基本上沒(méi)有必要對(duì)當(dāng)前的通脹感到坐臥不安,,尤其是對(duì)數(shù)千萬(wàn)舉步維艱的美國(guó)民眾來(lái)說(shuō),,通脹還存在一個(gè)鮮有人討論的益處。
2021年,,我們到目前為止看到的所有證據(jù)都表明,,工資在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng),企業(yè)在重新開(kāi)業(yè),,美國(guó)民眾又重新加入勞動(dòng)大軍,。由于債務(wù)的真實(shí)價(jià)值有可能會(huì)隨著通脹的上升而縮水,但工資卻在隨著通脹的增長(zhǎng)而增加,,因此更多的美國(guó)民眾有望受益于更高的通脹水平,,而且這一比例比你想象的還要高。
如果你在償還抵押貸款,,或擁有大量其他債務(wù),,例如學(xué)生貸款,通脹可能對(duì)你是有益的,。盡管你的抵押貸款毫無(wú)變化,,但房子的價(jià)值在增長(zhǎng),這些收益都是你的,,哪怕你只是支付了房子的首付款,。你的收入增幅通常略高于通脹水平,但你的絕大部分支出都不會(huì)上漲,,這樣你就有更多的錢(qián)去消費(fèi)或儲(chǔ)蓄,。
另一方面,對(duì)向他人貸款的銀行或投資者來(lái)說(shuō),,通脹可能會(huì)帶來(lái)不利影響,,因?yàn)槟阈枰蚬と酥Ц陡嗟墓べY,但卻沒(méi)有任何額外的收入,。
然而,,這一部分人群的數(shù)量要比持有大量債務(wù)的人群少得多。位于底部的一半美國(guó)民眾實(shí)際上的凈財(cái)富總額為負(fù)值,,其總債務(wù)要高于其財(cái)富,。然而,銀行家和投資者對(duì)評(píng)估經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家,、分析師和商業(yè)新聞主持人有著莫大的影響力,。
這并不是說(shuō)通脹越高越好。然而,,相對(duì)于超高的通脹本身,,那些推薦用于預(yù)防通脹的手段對(duì)每天工作的蕓蕓大眾來(lái)說(shuō)更加不利。如果出現(xiàn)二選一的情形,,一邊是4%的通脹加2萬(wàn)億美元的額外聯(lián)邦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開(kāi)支,,而另一邊是2%的通脹加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案的取消,那么很明顯,,第一個(gè)選項(xiàng)對(duì)絕大部分的美國(guó)民眾來(lái)說(shuō)更有利,。
需要明確的是,這并非是一個(gè)我們不得不做出的抉擇,。那些看衰通脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家數(shù)十年來(lái)一直都重復(fù)著同樣的說(shuō)辭,,但他們每一次都是錯(cuò)的。事實(shí)在于,,魚(yú)和熊掌并非不能兼得,。
那些主推通脹緩解政策的華爾街銀行家和投資者的利益不應(yīng)該凌駕于大多數(shù)美國(guó)民眾的利益之上,因?yàn)樵诿绹?guó)走出新冠疫情陰影之際,,這些美國(guó)民眾迫切需要救助,。
所有人都意識(shí)到,穩(wěn)定的美元價(jià)值是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活力至關(guān)重要的組成部分,。然而,,我們沒(méi)有令人信服的理由去采取限制經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的舉措,因?yàn)檫@種限制僅僅是為了讓通脹下降那點(diǎn)微不足道的百分比,但恢復(fù)舉措實(shí)際上能夠幫助那些需要金融支持的民眾,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
莫里斯?珀?duì)柺恰皭?ài)國(guó)百萬(wàn)富翁”(Patriotic Millionaires)團(tuán)體的主席,,亦是貝萊德集團(tuán)的前董事總經(jīng)理。他著有《向富人征稅:謊言,、漏洞和說(shuō)客如何讓富人變得更富》(Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer)一書(shū),。
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
With inflation on the rise, President Biden’s critics are blaming his economic policies and investors and economists are concerned. But for all the worries that the prospect of inflation seems to strike in the hearts of some observers, most Americans have nothing to fear from moderate levels of inflation. In fact, many Americans, particularly the less wealthy, actually stand to benefit from higher levels of inflation.
I spent most of my career on Wall Street at BlackRock Group working on risk assessment. In the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis, I helped banks, governments, and private companies assess their level of risk.
Some things that may seem especially risky are not really risks. When I look at our economy today, inflation is one of those things. There is virtually no reason for us to be extremely worried about inflation right now, especially when it comes with an under-discussed upside for tens of millions of struggling Americans.
All of the evidence we’ve seen so far in 2021 shows that wages are steadily rising as businesses reopen and Americans reenter the workforce. Faced with the prospect of the real value of their debt shrinking and their wages rising at pace with inflation, more Americans than you would think stand to gain from higher inflation rates.
If you are paying a mortgage or have any other large form of debt, like a student loan, inflation is good for you. Your mortgage payment does not change at all, but the house goes up in value, and you get all of the benefit, even though you only paid the down payment on the house. Your income goes up typically a tiny bit more than inflation, but a major part of your expenses do not go up, leaving you with more money to either save or spend.
On the other hand, if you are a bank or an investor and you lend money to people and collect their mortgage payments, inflation might be bad for you, because you need to pay more to your workers without receiving any additional revenue.
But, this group of people is substantially smaller than those with significant debt. The bottom half of Americans combined actually have a negative net worth, with more total debt than wealth. Bankers and investors, however, hold a disproportionate sway over the economists, analysts, and business news anchors who review economic trends.
This isn’t to say that we should be aiming for more inflation. But the steps that are being recommended to avoid inflation are more detrimental to everyday working people than ultra-high inflation itself. If we have to choose between 4% inflation combined with $2 trillion in additional federal infrastructure spending, or 2% inflation and no infrastructure bill, the first option seems obviously better for almost all Americans.
Let’s be clear—that’s not a choice we even know we have to make. Economists crying doomsday over inflation have been saying the same thing for decades, and they’ve been wrong every time. The truth is, we can likely have our cake and eat it too.
The interests of Wall Street bankers and investors who are pushing for policies that lead to less inflation should not be given higher priority over the majority of American people who are in desperate need of relief as we make our way out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
We can all agree that a stable dollar value is a crucial part of the American economy’s viability. But there’s no compelling reason for us to limit our recovery efforts just to avoid an insignificant number of inflation percentage points that could actually help those in need of financial support.
Morris Pearl is chair of Patriotic Millionaires and former managing director at BlackRock. He is the author of Tax the Rich: How Lies, Loopholes, and Lobbyists Make the Rich Even Richer.