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馬斯克的豪賭:入局幣圈可能使特斯拉蒙受巨大損失

SHAWN TULLY
2021-02-10

跌幅可能會(huì)給特斯拉稍有起色的盈利能力帶來重重一擊。

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特斯拉仍然未從銷售汽車和電池的核心業(yè)務(wù)中獲利。而它的最新動(dòng)作——入局比特幣并不會(huì)帶來投資者們渴望的穩(wěn)定,相反,,只會(huì)帶來更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和波動(dòng),。如果比特幣的價(jià)格從當(dāng)前創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高位再度跳水,跌幅可能會(huì)給特斯拉稍有起色的盈利能力帶來重重一擊,。

早在特斯拉公布最新一季令人瞠目結(jié)舌的財(cái)報(bào)之前,,馬斯克對(duì)比特幣的青睞就為這一“元老”級(jí)的加密貨幣帶來了新的熱度,使比特幣粉絲們的信念比以往任何時(shí)候都更加堅(jiān)定,,還吸引了新的“投資者”,。 1月29日,馬斯克在他Twitter上的個(gè)人資料中添加了“#Bitcoin”的標(biāo)簽,,這一公然的背書使比特幣的價(jià)格當(dāng)天就暴漲了20%,。六周以前,馬斯克曾在推特上和企業(yè)分析軟件公司微策略(MicroStrategy)的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?塞勒(Michael Saylor)交流過,,該公司一直將投資比特幣作為獲益的核心戰(zhàn)略,,并以此著稱。塞勒的建議是:“如果您想為股東帶來更大的收益,,請(qǐng)將特斯拉的決算表單位從美元換算成比特幣(#BTC)”,。 “隨著時(shí)間的推移,它將漲到一萬(wàn)億美元,?!?/p>

那時(shí),馬斯克似乎并未買賬,?!斑@么大的交易能有戲嗎?”他問塞勒,。但是在2月8日發(fā)布的特斯拉年報(bào)中,馬斯克加入了塞勒的隊(duì)伍,,揚(yáng)起了對(duì)比特幣的狂熱,,并提高了比特幣被重新發(fā)現(xiàn)的聲望。馬斯克透露,,特斯拉剛剛用公司的現(xiàn)金購(gòu)買了15億美元的比特幣,。在他一早發(fā)布財(cái)報(bào)后的一個(gè)小時(shí)內(nèi),比特幣就飆升了23%,,達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的48,000美元,,然后在2月9日上午7:30跌至46,500美元。但這看起來充滿風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的豪賭似乎并沒有打擊投資者的信心:特斯拉的股票上漲了約1%,,幾乎達(dá)到歷史最高水平,。

然而,這一消息并沒有像往常一樣,得到特斯拉在華爾街的大股東,、巴倫資本(Baron Capital)創(chuàng)始人羅恩?巴倫(Ron Baron)的贊賞,。在美國(guó)CNBC的一份聲明中,巴倫引用莎翁的名句,,不無(wú)諷刺地對(duì)幣圈表達(dá)了“微弱的贊美”,,透露著明褒暗貶的態(tài)度,宣稱“我相信,,特斯拉購(gòu)買比特幣是出于諸多考量,,抱著學(xué)習(xí)的態(tài)度,我愿聞其詳,?!?/p>

特斯拉在財(cái)報(bào)中給出了一種解答,稱此舉之意在“進(jìn)一步使公司的現(xiàn)金收益最大化,,并分散投資”,。事實(shí)上,和大多數(shù)公司一樣,,特斯拉從它各項(xiàng)投資中獲得的收益微不足道,,而這些投資本身近來已變得愈發(fā)龐大。去年,,巨大的股票和債券入賬將特斯拉的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備從6.5美元增加到194億美元,,但其投資所得只有3000萬(wàn)美元。特斯拉表示,,它不需要這15億美元來追加物資或支付日常開銷,,并且在購(gòu)買比特幣后,仍有大量的“現(xiàn)金流”來經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù),。

問題是:將賭注壓在比特幣這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)堪稱王者,、又尚未表現(xiàn)出實(shí)際用途、甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)都找不到實(shí)際用途的不穩(wěn)定資產(chǎn)上,,會(huì)使特斯拉本就不明晰的未來財(cái)務(wù)狀況變得更加模糊,。特斯拉持有的比特幣不會(huì)像現(xiàn)金一樣,被當(dāng)作一筆“投資”列入公司的決算表,。相反,,在數(shù)字資產(chǎn)的管理制度下,它們被歸為一類“無(wú)限期無(wú)形資產(chǎn)”,。這一類資產(chǎn)不同于工廠或?qū)嶒?yàn)室的產(chǎn)品,,不包括任何人力,也沒有制造出任何實(shí)物,。但它包含專利,,商標(biāo),,客戶清單以及其他一些看不見、摸不著,,但能帶來諸如增加收入,,降低成本或價(jià)值增值等好處的無(wú)形之物。會(huì)計(jì)專家杰克?西耶爾斯基(Jack Ciesielski)說:“無(wú)形資產(chǎn)有望在未來給我們帶來驚喜,?!?/p>

用比特幣取代以往的現(xiàn)金、實(shí)現(xiàn)“收益最大化”的目標(biāo)也就意味著,,馬斯克押注這些數(shù)字貨幣將繼續(xù)保值,,在其電動(dòng)汽車和電池業(yè)務(wù)之外,又創(chuàng)造了一項(xiàng)新的利潤(rùn)來源,。最近,,這筆下注對(duì)微策略的股票十分利好。這家智能軟件公司最近宣布,,它現(xiàn)在持有7050萬(wàn)比特幣,,購(gòu)入時(shí)的均價(jià)為16,000美元,總價(jià)為11.25億美元,。今天,,比特幣的價(jià)格幾乎翻了三倍,達(dá)到43,000美元,。比特幣的繁榮也拉動(dòng)了微策略的股票:自第三季度末以來,,該公司的股價(jià)上漲了六倍,市值增加了60億美元,。

正如西耶爾斯基所指出的那樣,,根據(jù)無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則,當(dāng)這些資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值下降,,其所有者的收益便會(huì)受到打擊,。但是,如果其價(jià)值增加,,也不能將其納入賬面收益,。因此,在每個(gè)季度,,如果比特幣暴跌,特斯拉必須在公司賬上記下這筆“資產(chǎn)減值”,。比特幣價(jià)格下跌可能會(huì)造成多大損失,?2020年,特斯拉的稅前利潤(rùn)僅為11.15億美元,。這個(gè)數(shù)字還包括了出售碳排放額度帶來的15.80億美元的額外收入——而馬斯克自己也承認(rèn),,這筆紅利只是暫時(shí)的,。也就是說,其基本的汽車業(yè)務(wù)虧損了4.26億美元,。

特斯拉的命運(yùn)在去年下半年確實(shí)有所改善,,在獲得碳額度紅利后,它的收入為9.14億美元,。假設(shè)到今年第二季度,,它的資產(chǎn)達(dá)到相同數(shù)值——不包括其持有的比特幣。我們不知道特斯拉購(gòu)買比特幣時(shí)的均價(jià)是多少,。但是根據(jù)該公司財(cái)報(bào)的數(shù)據(jù),,它是在一月購(gòu)買的,因此合理的推算大概是35,000美元,。截至2月9日,,比特幣的價(jià)格躍升至46,500美元,到目前為止,,特斯拉的獲利已超過30%,,而這主要是由馬斯克用實(shí)際行動(dòng)為比特幣背書帶來的。

現(xiàn)在,,假設(shè)比特幣出現(xiàn)像去年10月初那樣,,從近46,500美元暴跌至10,500美元的情況。如果以35,000美元的購(gòu)價(jià)估算,,則這筆70%的暴跌會(huì)使特斯拉承受10.5億美元的損失,。它微弱但仍有希望的9.14億美元利潤(rùn)將化為1.36億美元的虧損。從2019年6月到2020年秋季,,比特幣的平均價(jià)格為10,500美元,,實(shí)際上,它已在短期內(nèi)保持過穩(wěn)定,。而縱觀比特幣的歷史,,大起大落正是其一貫的風(fēng)格。 2017年,,它的價(jià)格從2000美元躍升至20,000美元,,然后在2019年1月急轉(zhuǎn)直下,跌至3400美元,,只有輝煌時(shí)期的三分之一,。

再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)一遍,只要特斯拉將比特幣列入公司賬目,,那么在其價(jià)格起伏中,,就只能記錄損失,不能記錄獲利,。只有當(dāng)它以高于買入時(shí)的價(jià)格賣掉比特幣時(shí),,才能記為獲利,。而西耶爾斯基說:“如果他拋售比特幣,哪怕只有10%,,也可能使比特幣的價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下跌,,就像他這次購(gòu)買推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲一樣?!?“獲得更高賬面收益的唯一方法是賣掉一些比特幣,。但他就像自己給自己創(chuàng)設(shè)了一個(gè)GameStop式的悖論?!彼馁I入使得比特幣升值,,而當(dāng)他開始拋售——即使這讓他大賺,也會(huì)傳遞出與之相反的訊號(hào),,即讓它下跌,。

馬斯克是一位很有遠(yuǎn)見的人。但他有沒有進(jìn)一步開拓一下思維,,想一想,,一旦他開始從比特幣中獲利,會(huì)發(fā)生什么,?或者,,一旦比特幣這一教科書級(jí)的泡沫破滅——畢竟它集齊了“泡沫”所有的典型特征——又會(huì)對(duì)特斯拉造成什么樣的損失?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰

特斯拉仍然未從銷售汽車和電池的核心業(yè)務(wù)中獲利,。而它的最新動(dòng)作——入局比特幣并不會(huì)帶來投資者們渴望的穩(wěn)定,,相反,只會(huì)帶來更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和波動(dòng),。如果比特幣的價(jià)格從當(dāng)前創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高位再度跳水,,跌幅可能會(huì)給特斯拉稍有起色的盈利能力帶來重重一擊。

早在特斯拉公布最新一季令人瞠目結(jié)舌的財(cái)報(bào)之前,,馬斯克對(duì)比特幣的青睞就為這一“元老”級(jí)的加密貨幣帶來了新的熱度,,使比特幣粉絲們的信念比以往任何時(shí)候都更加堅(jiān)定,還吸引了新的“投資者”,。 1月29日,,馬斯克在他Twitter上的個(gè)人資料中添加了“#Bitcoin”的標(biāo)簽,這一公然的背書使比特幣的價(jià)格當(dāng)天就暴漲了20%,。六周以前,,馬斯克曾在推特上和企業(yè)分析軟件公司微策略(MicroStrategy)的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?塞勒(Michael Saylor)交流過,該公司一直將投資比特幣作為獲益的核心戰(zhàn)略,,并以此著稱,。塞勒的建議是:“如果您想為股東帶來更大的收益,請(qǐng)將特斯拉的決算表單位從美元換算成比特幣(#BTC)”,。 “隨著時(shí)間的推移,,它將漲到一萬(wàn)億美元?!?/p>

那時(shí),,馬斯克似乎并未買賬?!斑@么大的交易能有戲嗎,?”他問塞勒。但是在2月8日發(fā)布的特斯拉年報(bào)中,,馬斯克加入了塞勒的隊(duì)伍,,揚(yáng)起了對(duì)比特幣的狂熱,并提高了比特幣被重新發(fā)現(xiàn)的聲望,。馬斯克透露,,特斯拉剛剛用公司的現(xiàn)金購(gòu)買了15億美元的比特幣。在他一早發(fā)布財(cái)報(bào)后的一個(gè)小時(shí)內(nèi),,比特幣就飆升了23%,,達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的48,000美元,然后在2月9日上午7:30跌至46,500美元,。但這看起來充滿風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的豪賭似乎并沒有打擊投資者的信心:特斯拉的股票上漲了約1%,,幾乎達(dá)到歷史最高水平。

然而,,這一消息并沒有像往常一樣,,得到特斯拉在華爾街的大股東、巴倫資本(Baron Capital)創(chuàng)始人羅恩?巴倫(Ron Baron)的贊賞,。在美國(guó)CNBC的一份聲明中,,巴倫引用莎翁的名句,不無(wú)諷刺地對(duì)幣圈表達(dá)了“微弱的贊美”,,透露著明褒暗貶的態(tài)度,,宣稱“我相信,特斯拉購(gòu)買比特幣是出于諸多考量,,抱著學(xué)習(xí)的態(tài)度,,我愿聞其詳?!?/p>

特斯拉在財(cái)報(bào)中給出了一種解答,,稱此舉之意在“進(jìn)一步使公司的現(xiàn)金收益最大化,并分散投資”,。事實(shí)上,,和大多數(shù)公司一樣,特斯拉從它各項(xiàng)投資中獲得的收益微不足道,,而這些投資本身近來已變得愈發(fā)龐大,。去年,,巨大的股票和債券入賬將特斯拉的現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備從6.5美元增加到194億美元,但其投資所得只有3000萬(wàn)美元,。特斯拉表示,,它不需要這15億美元來追加物資或支付日常開銷,并且在購(gòu)買比特幣后,,仍有大量的“現(xiàn)金流”來經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù),。

問題是:將賭注壓在比特幣這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)堪稱王者、又尚未表現(xiàn)出實(shí)際用途,、甚至可能永遠(yuǎn)都找不到實(shí)際用途的不穩(wěn)定資產(chǎn)上,,會(huì)使特斯拉本就不明晰的未來財(cái)務(wù)狀況變得更加模糊。特斯拉持有的比特幣不會(huì)像現(xiàn)金一樣,,被當(dāng)作一筆“投資”列入公司的決算表,。相反,在數(shù)字資產(chǎn)的管理制度下,,它們被歸為一類“無(wú)限期無(wú)形資產(chǎn)”,。這一類資產(chǎn)不同于工廠或?qū)嶒?yàn)室的產(chǎn)品,不包括任何人力,,也沒有制造出任何實(shí)物,。但它包含專利,商標(biāo),,客戶清單以及其他一些看不見,、摸不著,但能帶來諸如增加收入,,降低成本或價(jià)值增值等好處的無(wú)形之物,。會(huì)計(jì)專家杰克?西耶爾斯基(Jack Ciesielski)說:“無(wú)形資產(chǎn)有望在未來給我們帶來驚喜?!?/p>

用比特幣取代以往的現(xiàn)金,、實(shí)現(xiàn)“收益最大化”的目標(biāo)也就意味著,馬斯克押注這些數(shù)字貨幣將繼續(xù)保值,,在其電動(dòng)汽車和電池業(yè)務(wù)之外,,又創(chuàng)造了一項(xiàng)新的利潤(rùn)來源。最近,,這筆下注對(duì)微策略的股票十分利好,。這家智能軟件公司最近宣布,它現(xiàn)在持有7050萬(wàn)比特幣,,購(gòu)入時(shí)的均價(jià)為16,000美元,,總價(jià)為11.25億美元。今天,比特幣的價(jià)格幾乎翻了三倍,,達(dá)到43,000美元,。比特幣的繁榮也拉動(dòng)了微策略的股票:自第三季度末以來,該公司的股價(jià)上漲了六倍,,市值增加了60億美元,。

正如西耶爾斯基所指出的那樣,根據(jù)無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則,,當(dāng)這些資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值下降,其所有者的收益便會(huì)受到打擊,。但是,,如果其價(jià)值增加,也不能將其納入賬面收益,。因此,,在每個(gè)季度,如果比特幣暴跌,,特斯拉必須在公司賬上記下這筆“資產(chǎn)減值”,。比特幣價(jià)格下跌可能會(huì)造成多大損失?2020年,,特斯拉的稅前利潤(rùn)僅為11.15億美元,。這個(gè)數(shù)字還包括了出售碳排放額度帶來的15.80億美元的額外收入——而馬斯克自己也承認(rèn),這筆紅利只是暫時(shí)的,。也就是說,,其基本的汽車業(yè)務(wù)虧損了4.26億美元。

特斯拉的命運(yùn)在去年下半年確實(shí)有所改善,,在獲得碳額度紅利后,,它的收入為9.14億美元。假設(shè)到今年第二季度,,它的資產(chǎn)達(dá)到相同數(shù)值——不包括其持有的比特幣,。我們不知道特斯拉購(gòu)買比特幣時(shí)的均價(jià)是多少。但是根據(jù)該公司財(cái)報(bào)的數(shù)據(jù),,它是在一月購(gòu)買的,,因此合理的推算大概是35,000美元。截至2月9日,,比特幣的價(jià)格躍升至46,500美元,,到目前為止,特斯拉的獲利已超過30%,,而這主要是由馬斯克用實(shí)際行動(dòng)為比特幣背書帶來的,。

現(xiàn)在,假設(shè)比特幣出現(xiàn)像去年10月初那樣,從近46,500美元暴跌至10,500美元的情況,。如果以35,000美元的購(gòu)價(jià)估算,,則這筆70%的暴跌會(huì)使特斯拉承受10.5億美元的損失。它微弱但仍有希望的9.14億美元利潤(rùn)將化為1.36億美元的虧損,。從2019年6月到2020年秋季,,比特幣的平均價(jià)格為10,500美元,實(shí)際上,,它已在短期內(nèi)保持過穩(wěn)定,。而縱觀比特幣的歷史,大起大落正是其一貫的風(fēng)格,。 2017年,,它的價(jià)格從2000美元躍升至20,000美元,然后在2019年1月急轉(zhuǎn)直下,,跌至3400美元,,只有輝煌時(shí)期的三分之一。

再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)一遍,,只要特斯拉將比特幣列入公司賬目,,那么在其價(jià)格起伏中,就只能記錄損失,,不能記錄獲利,。只有當(dāng)它以高于買入時(shí)的價(jià)格賣掉比特幣時(shí),才能記為獲利,。而西耶爾斯基說:“如果他拋售比特幣,,哪怕只有10%,也可能使比特幣的價(jià)格進(jìn)一步下跌,,就像他這次購(gòu)買推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲一樣,。” “獲得更高賬面收益的唯一方法是賣掉一些比特幣,。但他就像自己給自己創(chuàng)設(shè)了一個(gè)GameStop式的悖論,。”他的買入使得比特幣升值,,而當(dāng)他開始拋售——即使這讓他大賺,,也會(huì)傳遞出與之相反的訊號(hào),即讓它下跌,。

馬斯克是一位很有遠(yuǎn)見的人,。但他有沒有進(jìn)一步開拓一下思維,想一想,,一旦他開始從比特幣中獲利,,會(huì)發(fā)生什么?或者,一旦比特幣這一教科書級(jí)的泡沫破滅——畢竟它集齊了“泡沫”所有的典型特征——又會(huì)對(duì)特斯拉造成什么樣的損失,?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳聰聰

Tesla still isn't making money from its core business of selling cars and batteries. Its new foray into Bitcoin will bring not the stability investors crave, but still more risk and volatility. If Bitcoin takes another big dive from its record heights, the drop could trample Tesla's ascent towards profitability.

Even before the jaw-dropper in Tesla's new 10K filing, Elon Musk's affection for Bitcoin brought a fresh buzz to the flagship cryptocurrency, inspiring fans to believe more ardently than ever, and attracting a rush of new "investors." On January 29, Musk added "#Bitcoin" to his Twitter bio, an endorsement that sent its price 20% higher that day. Six weeks earlier, Musk had fielded a tweet from Michael Saylor, CEO of software vendor MicroStrategy, who's famously made amassing Bitcoin central to his strategy for enriching investors. "If you want to do your shareholders a favor, convert $TSLA's balance sheet to from USD to #BTC," Saylor exhorted. "In time, it would grow to become a $1 trillion favor."

In the moment, Musk didn't seem sold. "Are such large transactions even possible?" he queried Saylor. But in Tesla's annual report, released on February 8, Musk joined the Saylor bandwagon, stirring the Bitcoin craze and enhancing its newfound respectability in the process. Musk disclosed that Tesla just used its corporate cash to buy $1.5 billion in the digital coins. In the hour following the early-morning filing, Bitcoin surged as much as 23% to a record $48,000, before retreating to $46,500 in by 7:30 AM on February 9. What might seem like a zany bet didn't faze most Tesla investors, who lifted its shares around 1%, to within whisker of its all-time high.

The news, however, did not elicit the usual kudos from major Tesla investor and its leading raisonneur on Wall Street, Ron Baron of Baron Capital. In Shakespearean terms, Baron damned the Bitcoin gambit "with faint praise" in a statement to CNBC, declaring that "I'm sure a lot of thought went into the Bitcoin purchase by Tesla, and I look forward to learning the rationale."

In the 10K, Tesla provided an answer, stating that the purpose is "to further maximize and diversify our returns on cash." Indeed, Tesla, like most companies, is earning puny interest income on its war chest, and that war chest has recently grown huge. Last year, big equity and bond offerings swelled its cash horde from $6.5 to $19.4 billion, but Tesla booked just $30 million in interest. Tesla stated that it doesn't need the $1.5 billion to buy supplies or pay routine bills, and after purchasing the Bitcoin, has plenty of "liquidity" left over for running its businesses.

The problem: Loading up on the king of all volatile assets that hasn't yet, and may never find a practical use, renders Tesla's already hard-to-call financial future even foggier. The Bitcoin holdings won't be called investments on Tesla's balance sheet, like cash. Instead, under the regime governing digital assets, they're classified as "indefinite life intangible assets." That category includes items that unlike factories or labs don't host workers or make things. It encompasses patents, trademarks, customer lists and other items you can't touch or walk into that are supposed to provide such benefits as increasing revenues, lowering costs, or gaining in value. "Intangible assets are expected to produce good things in the future," says accounting expert Jack Ciesielski.

The goal of using Bitcoin to "maximize returns" on what was formerly cash means that Musk is betting the coins will keep waxing in value, creating a new source of profits beyond EVs and batteries. That wager's done great things recently for MicroStrategy's stock. The intelligence software provider recently announced that it now holds 70.5 million Bitcoin that it bought at an average price of $16,000 for a total of $1.125 billion. Today the coins are worth almost three times that number at $43,000. MicroStrategy's shares rode the Bitcoin boom, jumping six-fold since the end of Q3, and adding $6 billion in market cap.

As Ciesielski points out, the accounting rules for intangible assets require owners to take a hit to earnings if their value declines. But it bars them from booking gains if values increase. Hence, in each quarter, Tesla must book an "impairment" charge if Bitcoin tumbles. How much damage could a drop inflict? In 2020, Tesla earned just $1.115 billion before taxes. But that number included a windfall of $1.580 billion from selling carbon tax credits, a benefit Musk acknowledges will be short-lived. Its basic car business posted a loss of $426 million.

Tesla's fortunes did improve in the second half of last year, when it earned $914 million after the carbon credits. Let's assume that it makes the same amount through Q2 of this year, excluding its Bitcoin holding. We don't know the average price Tesla paid for its Bitcoin. But according to the 10K, it made the purchases in January, so a fair estimate is probably around $35,000. Bitcoin's jump to $46,500 as of February 9 gives Tesla a 30%-plus profit so far, largely created by Musk's vote of confidence.

Now let's take the scenario where the cryptocurrency retreats from nearly $46,500 to its price of $10,500 in early October. That 70% decline from Tesla's estimated purchase price of $35,000 would pound Tesla with an impairment charge of $1.050 billion. Its narrow but promising profit of $914 million would dissolve into a $136 million loss. At $10,500, Bitcoin would be selling at its average price from June of 2019 to the fall of 2020, when for a brief period, it actually found stability. And a history of huge spikes and steep declines are part of the Bitcoin pattern. In 2017, it jumped from $2000 to $20,000, then nosedived to $3400 by January of 2019. That's one-third the price in our steep-fall case.

Once again, Tesla can book losses but not profits on Bitcoin's fluctuations, as long as it holds the cryptocurrency on its books. It can only show a profit by selling the coins at higher prices than it paid. "Even if he sells 10%, that could drive the price of Bitcoin far down, just as this purchase drove it way up," says Ciesielski. "The only way to get a higher return on his cash is to sell some. But he's like his own GameStop chatroom." Selling coins even at a profit the would send the opposite message from the ringing endorsements that have helped recharge Bitcoin. Elon Musk is a great visionary. Did his vision extend to wondering what happens if he starts taking Bitcoin profits? Or the damage to Tesla if a phenomenon that bearing all the earmarks of a classic bubble explodes?

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