目前因?yàn)楦腥拘鹿诓《径≡褐委煹拿绹?guó)人,,幾乎是疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)任何時(shí)點(diǎn)的兩倍之多。鑒于大多數(shù)人還要等到幾個(gè)月后才能夠接種疫苗,,這使得醫(yī)療服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)處于危機(jī)邊緣,。
美國(guó)的醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生體系和衛(wèi)生工作者正在承受比以往任何時(shí)候都更大的壓力。新冠病毒對(duì)醫(yī)院的無(wú)情掌控,,已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到治療手段相對(duì)匱乏的農(nóng)村地區(qū),。
在短期內(nèi),居高不下的病人負(fù)荷量可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致死亡人數(shù)加速上升,,因?yàn)楂@得重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室(ICU)床位的機(jī)會(huì)持續(xù)下降,。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是系統(tǒng)性的:疲勞,、人員流失,,以及醫(yī)護(hù)人員遭受的心理健康損害,。
“新冠肺炎患者占用的床位比例增加那一刻,真的會(huì)導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的人員配置問(wèn)題,?!泵髂崽K達(dá)大學(xué)(University of Minnesota)的一位醫(yī)療風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理教授皮納爾?卡拉卡-曼迪奇說(shuō),“我們的醫(yī)療體系已經(jīng)變得支離破碎,?!?/p>
根據(jù)新冠病毒追蹤項(xiàng)目(COVID Tracking Project)發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù),目前有超過(guò)11.5萬(wàn)美國(guó)人因?yàn)楦腥静《径≡褐委煛?0月初以來(lái),,這個(gè)數(shù)字隨著每日新增病例的激增而持續(xù)上升,。加利福尼亞州、得克薩斯州和紐約州占全美總數(shù)的四分之一以上,。
美國(guó)衛(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)部(Department of Health and Human Services)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,近五分之一的美國(guó)醫(yī)院在12月18日?qǐng)?bào)告了嚴(yán)重的人員短缺問(wèn)題。而該部門在本月早些時(shí)候公布的數(shù)據(jù)更加詳盡地反映了各地疫情的嚴(yán)重程度,。在此之前,,這些數(shù)據(jù)一直被全美或全州范圍的數(shù)據(jù)遮掩住了。
根據(jù)卡拉卡-曼迪奇團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)這些數(shù)據(jù)的分析,,非都市地區(qū)在這波感染浪潮中受到的影響更大,。在這些地區(qū),新冠感染患者的入院率高于人口密集地區(qū),。
包括北卡羅來(lái)納州伯克縣和得克薩斯州黑爾縣在內(nèi),,有十幾個(gè)縣報(bào)告稱,至少90%的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位被新冠肺炎患者占據(jù),,這讓醫(yī)院幾乎沒(méi)有能力診治其他病患,。卡拉卡-曼迪奇的研究將重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位的使用情況與死亡率的增加聯(lián)系在一起,。
“醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)向我們展示了各地疫情的嚴(yán)重程度,。”她說(shuō),。
美國(guó)西部地區(qū)正在努力應(yīng)對(duì)一些最嚴(yán)重的影響,。按照人口比例計(jì)算,內(nèi)華達(dá)州和亞利桑那州在12月21日?qǐng)?bào)告的住院率高居全美之首,。
深夜電話
在亞利桑那州菲尼克斯以東約20英里的梅薩市,,麻醉護(hù)士李?艾倫在上班途中經(jīng)過(guò)一些擠在醫(yī)院窗戶前的患者家屬。一些人還舉著寫有暖心鼓勵(lì)話語(yǔ)的紙板標(biāo)語(yǔ)牌,。
在醫(yī)院里面,,病人正在幾乎滿員的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室接受治療。這些病房已經(jīng)被擴(kuò)建到大樓里一些平常不太使用的地方,。許多人都無(wú)法看到這些標(biāo)語(yǔ)——為了促進(jìn)肺部的氣流,,他們都面朝下躺在病床上,。
雖然艾倫的主要專業(yè)是產(chǎn)科麻醉,但他接到的求助電話越來(lái)越多,,醫(yī)院需要他幫助處理特別困難的插管手術(shù),,尤其是一些有合并癥或病態(tài)肥胖的病人。就在幾天前,,他在凌晨2點(diǎn)接到醫(yī)院來(lái)電,。
“但愿疫苗可以幫上忙?!卑瑐愓f(shuō),。他自己的免疫功能低下,剛剛在12月21日接種了疫苗,。
在鄰近的加州,,新冠疫情猶如烈火烹油般再次爆發(fā)。上周的新增感染病例,、住院和死亡人數(shù)都打破了紀(jì)錄,。
州長(zhǎng)加文?紐森在12月21日表示,,如果當(dāng)前這波疫情井噴沒(méi)有減緩跡象,,到明年1月中旬,加州將有9萬(wàn)多人因?yàn)楦腥拘鹿诓《径≡褐委?。加?2月21日?qǐng)?bào)告稱,,該州入院治療的新冠患者達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的18,359人,兩周內(nèi)增加了67%,。南加州和圣華金河谷的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室實(shí)際上已經(jīng)滿員,,全州可用的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位僅剩下2.5%。僅在過(guò)去兩周內(nèi),,加州就有2,741人死于新冠病毒,。
“到本月底和明年1月初,一些縣或一些地區(qū)的醫(yī)院可能會(huì)開(kāi)始超出現(xiàn)有的接診能力,,而不僅僅是重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室的容量,。”加州的衛(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)局的局長(zhǎng)馬克?加利在12月21日的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō),,“我們當(dāng)時(shí)沒(méi)有看到全州出現(xiàn)這種情況,,但我們正在密切關(guān)注?!?
加州開(kāi)設(shè)了4家臨時(shí)護(hù)理設(shè)施,,如有需要,還準(zhǔn)備啟動(dòng)另外7家,。加利說(shuō),,醫(yī)院一直在制定應(yīng)急計(jì)劃,,準(zhǔn)備隨時(shí)激活“危機(jī)護(hù)理小組”。一旦醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)不堪重負(fù),,這些小組將做出困難的決定,,選擇優(yōu)先診治哪些病人。
他說(shuō),,到目前為止,,加州一直能夠?qū)⒉∪藦某?fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的醫(yī)院轉(zhuǎn)移到那些仍然有接診能力的醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)。但隨著疫情的加劇,,這種做法正在變得越來(lái)越困難,。
盡管美國(guó)某些地區(qū)的床位供應(yīng)緊張,但接診瓶頸往往更多地源于人員配備方面的限制,。與一般患者相比,,治療新冠肺炎患者更費(fèi)時(shí)、更費(fèi)錢,、更費(fèi)力,。
“我們真的不能低估情緒方面的壓力?!眮喞D轻t(yī)院和醫(yī)療協(xié)會(huì)(Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association)的總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官安-瑪麗?阿拉姆丁說(shuō),。據(jù)估計(jì),亞利桑那全州的醫(yī)院床位占用率目前為78%,?!拔艺J(rèn)為,在未來(lái)的幾個(gè)月和幾年里,,我們將不得不應(yīng)對(duì)這種壓力產(chǎn)生的持久影響,。”
曠日持久的新冠肺炎已經(jīng)讓廣大衛(wèi)生工作者疲憊不堪,。盡管大部分公眾已經(jīng)從今年4月的待在家里,,為醫(yī)務(wù)工作者加油喝彩的日子中走了出來(lái),“但對(duì)于許多醫(yī)療服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)來(lái)說(shuō),,那種令人窒息的工作量,,每天工作13個(gè)小時(shí)的日子還沒(méi)有真正結(jié)束?!盤remier Inc.公司的首席客戶官安迪?布拉伊洛說(shuō),。這家公司為超過(guò)4,000家醫(yī)院提供采購(gòu)、技術(shù)和咨詢服務(wù),。
人員流失激增
布拉伊洛說(shuō),,Premier客戶的員工流失率急劇上升。在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,臨床醫(yī)護(hù)人員的平均流失率高達(dá)30%,。一些員工選擇退休,,或者轉(zhuǎn)為兼職。還有一些員工則因?yàn)樯』蚪佑|新冠病毒患者而無(wú)法上崗,,或者必須待在家里照顧孩子或家人,。
醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)正在提高獎(jiǎng)金和加班費(fèi),以招聘和留住員工,,并向退休人員伸出援手,。對(duì)接受臨時(shí)任務(wù)的旅行臨床醫(yī)生的需求非常高。
一些更先進(jìn)的護(hù)理和治療方案,,比如再生元制藥公司(Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.)推出的抗體雞尾酒療法,,已經(jīng)改善了住院患者的康復(fù)前景。在紐約州,,病人在醫(yī)院的治療速度正在加快,,需要重癥監(jiān)護(hù)和接受插管手術(shù)的病患比例也有所減少。
布朗大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Brown University School of Public Health)的院長(zhǎng)阿希什?杰哈表示,,隨著醫(yī)院人滿為患,,一些通常可能會(huì)住院的新冠病毒感染者和其他病患現(xiàn)在不得不被送回家,。
醫(yī)院超負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)可能會(huì)造成更糟糕的結(jié)果,,特別是對(duì)于那些病情處于邊緣狀態(tài)的人來(lái)說(shuō)更是如此。這些患者還沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重到必須立即住院的程度,,但他們的病情也沒(méi)有那么溫和,,其實(shí)還需要接受醫(yī)院護(hù)理,。
杰哈指出:“每一點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)都表明,,在這些患者中,有許多人的情況并不太好,?!彼麄兊牟∏榭赡軙?huì)好轉(zhuǎn),或者在病情加重時(shí)返回醫(yī)院治療,,或者最終死在家中,。“當(dāng)急診室不堪重負(fù),,或者醫(yī)院近乎滿員時(shí),,每個(gè)人的情況往往會(huì)變得更糟?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
目前因?yàn)楦腥拘鹿诓《径≡褐委煹拿绹?guó)人,,幾乎是疫情爆發(fā)以來(lái)任何時(shí)點(diǎn)的兩倍之多。鑒于大多數(shù)人還要等到幾個(gè)月后才能夠接種疫苗,這使得醫(yī)療服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)處于危機(jī)邊緣,。
美國(guó)的醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生體系和衛(wèi)生工作者正在承受比以往任何時(shí)候都更大的壓力,。新冠病毒對(duì)醫(yī)院的無(wú)情掌控,已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到治療手段相對(duì)匱乏的農(nóng)村地區(qū),。
在短期內(nèi),,居高不下的病人負(fù)荷量可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致死亡人數(shù)加速上升,因?yàn)楂@得重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室(ICU)床位的機(jī)會(huì)持續(xù)下降,。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是系統(tǒng)性的:疲勞、人員流失,,以及醫(yī)護(hù)人員遭受的心理健康損害,。
“新冠肺炎患者占用的床位比例增加那一刻,真的會(huì)導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的人員配置問(wèn)題,?!泵髂崽K達(dá)大學(xué)(University of Minnesota)的一位醫(yī)療風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理教授皮納爾?卡拉卡-曼迪奇說(shuō),“我們的醫(yī)療體系已經(jīng)變得支離破碎,?!?/p>
根據(jù)新冠病毒追蹤項(xiàng)目(COVID Tracking Project)發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù),目前有超過(guò)11.5萬(wàn)美國(guó)人因?yàn)楦腥静《径≡褐委煛?0月初以來(lái),,這個(gè)數(shù)字隨著每日新增病例的激增而持續(xù)上升,。加利福尼亞州、得克薩斯州和紐約州占全美總數(shù)的四分之一以上,。
美國(guó)衛(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)部(Department of Health and Human Services)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,,近五分之一的美國(guó)醫(yī)院在12月18日?qǐng)?bào)告了嚴(yán)重的人員短缺問(wèn)題。而該部門在本月早些時(shí)候公布的數(shù)據(jù)更加詳盡地反映了各地疫情的嚴(yán)重程度,。在此之前,,這些數(shù)據(jù)一直被全美或全州范圍的數(shù)據(jù)遮掩住了。
根據(jù)卡拉卡-曼迪奇團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)這些數(shù)據(jù)的分析,,非都市地區(qū)在這波感染浪潮中受到的影響更大,。在這些地區(qū),新冠感染患者的入院率高于人口密集地區(qū),。
包括北卡羅來(lái)納州伯克縣和得克薩斯州黑爾縣在內(nèi),,有十幾個(gè)縣報(bào)告稱,至少90%的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位被新冠肺炎患者占據(jù),,這讓醫(yī)院幾乎沒(méi)有能力診治其他病患,。卡拉卡-曼迪奇的研究將重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位的使用情況與死亡率的增加聯(lián)系在一起,。
“醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)向我們展示了各地疫情的嚴(yán)重程度,?!彼f(shuō)。
美國(guó)西部地區(qū)正在努力應(yīng)對(duì)一些最嚴(yán)重的影響,。按照人口比例計(jì)算,,內(nèi)華達(dá)州和亞利桑那州在12月21日?qǐng)?bào)告的住院率高居全美之首。
深夜電話
在亞利桑那州菲尼克斯以東約20英里的梅薩市,,麻醉護(hù)士李?艾倫在上班途中經(jīng)過(guò)一些擠在醫(yī)院窗戶前的患者家屬,。一些人還舉著寫有暖心鼓勵(lì)話語(yǔ)的紙板標(biāo)語(yǔ)牌。
在醫(yī)院里面,,病人正在幾乎滿員的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室接受治療,。這些病房已經(jīng)被擴(kuò)建到大樓里一些平常不太使用的地方。許多人都無(wú)法看到這些標(biāo)語(yǔ)——為了促進(jìn)肺部的氣流,,他們都面朝下躺在病床上,。
雖然艾倫的主要專業(yè)是產(chǎn)科麻醉,但他接到的求助電話越來(lái)越多,,醫(yī)院需要他幫助處理特別困難的插管手術(shù),,尤其是一些有合并癥或病態(tài)肥胖的病人。就在幾天前,,他在凌晨2點(diǎn)接到醫(yī)院來(lái)電,。
“但愿疫苗可以幫上忙?!卑瑐愓f(shuō),。他自己的免疫功能低下,剛剛在12月21日接種了疫苗,。
在鄰近的加州,,新冠疫情猶如烈火烹油般再次爆發(fā)。上周的新增感染病例,、住院和死亡人數(shù)都打破了紀(jì)錄,。
州長(zhǎng)加文?紐森在12月21日表示,如果當(dāng)前這波疫情井噴沒(méi)有減緩跡象,,到明年1月中旬,,加州將有9萬(wàn)多人因?yàn)楦腥拘鹿诓《径≡褐委?。加?2月21日?qǐng)?bào)告稱,,該州入院治療的新冠患者達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的18,359人,兩周內(nèi)增加了67%,。南加州和圣華金河谷的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室實(shí)際上已經(jīng)滿員,,全州可用的重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室床位僅剩下2.5%。僅在過(guò)去兩周內(nèi),,加州就有2,741人死于新冠病毒,。
“到本月底和明年1月初,一些縣或一些地區(qū)的醫(yī)院可能會(huì)開(kāi)始超出現(xiàn)有的接診能力,而不僅僅是重癥監(jiān)護(hù)室的容量,?!奔又莸男l(wèi)生與公眾服務(wù)局的局長(zhǎng)馬克?加利在12月21日的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō),“我們當(dāng)時(shí)沒(méi)有看到全州出現(xiàn)這種情況,,但我們正在密切關(guān)注,。”
加州開(kāi)設(shè)了4家臨時(shí)護(hù)理設(shè)施,,如有需要,,還準(zhǔn)備啟動(dòng)另外7家。加利說(shuō),,醫(yī)院一直在制定應(yīng)急計(jì)劃,,準(zhǔn)備隨時(shí)激活“危機(jī)護(hù)理小組”。一旦醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)不堪重負(fù),,這些小組將做出困難的決定,,選擇優(yōu)先診治哪些病人。
他說(shuō),,到目前為止,,加州一直能夠?qū)⒉∪藦某?fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的醫(yī)院轉(zhuǎn)移到那些仍然有接診能力的醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)。但隨著疫情的加劇,,這種做法正在變得越來(lái)越困難,。
盡管美國(guó)某些地區(qū)的床位供應(yīng)緊張,但接診瓶頸往往更多地源于人員配備方面的限制,。與一般患者相比,,治療新冠肺炎患者更費(fèi)時(shí)、更費(fèi)錢,、更費(fèi)力,。
“我們真的不能低估情緒方面的壓力?!眮喞D轻t(yī)院和醫(yī)療協(xié)會(huì)(Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association)的總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官安-瑪麗?阿拉姆丁說(shuō),。據(jù)估計(jì),亞利桑那全州的醫(yī)院床位占用率目前為78%,?!拔艺J(rèn)為,在未來(lái)的幾個(gè)月和幾年里,,我們將不得不應(yīng)對(duì)這種壓力產(chǎn)生的持久影響,。”
曠日持久的新冠肺炎已經(jīng)讓廣大衛(wèi)生工作者疲憊不堪,。盡管大部分公眾已經(jīng)從今年4月的待在家里,,為醫(yī)務(wù)工作者加油喝彩的日子中走了出來(lái),,“但對(duì)于許多醫(yī)療服務(wù)機(jī)構(gòu)來(lái)說(shuō),那種令人窒息的工作量,,每天工作13個(gè)小時(shí)的日子還沒(méi)有真正結(jié)束,。”Premier Inc.公司的首席客戶官安迪?布拉伊洛說(shuō),。這家公司為超過(guò)4,000家醫(yī)院提供采購(gòu),、技術(shù)和咨詢服務(wù)。
人員流失激增
布拉伊洛說(shuō),,Premier客戶的員工流失率急劇上升,。在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,臨床醫(yī)護(hù)人員的平均流失率高達(dá)30%,。一些員工選擇退休,,或者轉(zhuǎn)為兼職。還有一些員工則因?yàn)樯』蚪佑|新冠病毒患者而無(wú)法上崗,,或者必須待在家里照顧孩子或家人,。
醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)正在提高獎(jiǎng)金和加班費(fèi),以招聘和留住員工,,并向退休人員伸出援手,。對(duì)接受臨時(shí)任務(wù)的旅行臨床醫(yī)生的需求非常高。
一些更先進(jìn)的護(hù)理和治療方案,,比如再生元制藥公司(Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.)推出的抗體雞尾酒療法,,已經(jīng)改善了住院患者的康復(fù)前景。在紐約州,,病人在醫(yī)院的治療速度正在加快,,需要重癥監(jiān)護(hù)和接受插管手術(shù)的病患比例也有所減少。
布朗大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院(Brown University School of Public Health)的院長(zhǎng)阿希什?杰哈表示,,隨著醫(yī)院人滿為患,,一些通常可能會(huì)住院的新冠病毒感染者和其他病患現(xiàn)在不得不被送回家,。
醫(yī)院超負(fù)荷運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)可能會(huì)造成更糟糕的結(jié)果,,特別是對(duì)于那些病情處于邊緣狀態(tài)的人來(lái)說(shuō)更是如此。這些患者還沒(méi)有嚴(yán)重到必須立即住院的程度,,但他們的病情也沒(méi)有那么溫和,,其實(shí)還需要接受醫(yī)院護(hù)理。
杰哈指出:“每一點(diǎn)數(shù)據(jù)都表明,,在這些患者中,,有許多人的情況并不太好?!彼麄兊牟∏榭赡軙?huì)好轉(zhuǎn),,或者在病情加重時(shí)返回醫(yī)院治療,或者最終死在家中,?!爱?dāng)急診室不堪重負(fù),或者醫(yī)院近乎滿員時(shí),,每個(gè)人的情況往往會(huì)變得更糟,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:任文科
COVID-19 has hospitalized almost twice as many Americans as at any point in the pandemic, leaving medical providers on the brink of crisis with vaccine doses months away for most people.
The U.S. health care system and those who serve it are enduring more strain than ever. And the virus’s grip on hospitals has shifted toward more rural communities, where treatment alternatives are scarce.
In the near term, sustained patient loads threaten to accelerate deaths, as access to critical care declines in intensive care units. Longer term, the risks are more systemic: fatigue, attrition, and mental health damage to the doctors and nurses working to care for the sick.
“The moment when the percent of beds occupied by COVID patients increases, that really drives a lot of the staffing issues,” said Pinar Karaca-Mandic, a health care risk management professor at the University of Minnesota. “It exposed a lot of the fragmentation in our health-care system.”
More than 115,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with coronavirus, according to COVID Tracking Project data—a number that has risen alongside daily cases since early October. California, Texas, and New York account for more than a quarter of the national total.
Almost one in five U.S. hospitals reported critical staffing shortages on December 18, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services. Earlier this month, HHS released figures that gave a more localized view of the devastation, which was previously obscured by national or statewide numbers.
Non-metro areas are suffering more in the current wave, with larger occupancy rates than more densely populated regions, said Karaca-Mandic, whose team analyzed the data.
More than a dozen counties—such as Burke, North Carolina, and Hale, Texas—reported at least 90% of their ICU beds filled by COVID-19 cases, leaving hardly any capacity to treat others. Karaca-Mandic’s research has linked ICU bed use to increased mortality.
“What the facility-level data is showing us is how localized the pandemic can be,” she said.
The U.S. West is grappling with some of the most acute repercussions. When scaled for population, Nevada and Arizona reported the highest hospitalization rates nationwide on December 21.
Late night calls
In Mesa, Arizona, about 20 miles east of Phoenix, Lee Allen passes families pressed against the windows of the hospital where he works as a nurse anesthesiologist. Some hold cardboard signs with words of encouragement.
Just inside, patients are being treated in the nearly full ICU, which has been expanded into under-used parts of the building. Many can’t read the signs as they lay face down to improve airflow to their lungs.
Though Allen’s primary specialty is obstetrical anesthesia, he has gotten more frequent calls for assistance with especially difficult intubations, such as for patients who have co-morbidities or are morbidly obese. Just a few days ago, he was called in at 2 a.m.
“I’m hopeful that the vaccine is going to help out,” said Allen, who is immunocompromised himself and got the vaccine on December 21.
In neighboring California, the virus has exploded with renewed fury. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths all smashed records last week.
Governor Gavin Newsom said on December 21 the state could see more than 90,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19 by mid-January, if the current surge doesn’t slow down. California reported a record 18,359 COVID patients in its hospitals on December 21, a 67% increase in two weeks. ICUs in Southern California and the San Joaquin Valley are effectively full, and just 2.5% of the entire state’s ICU capacity remains open. The state has lost 2,741 people to the coronavirus in the last two weeks alone.
“Some counties or some regions may begin to exceed their existing, stated hospital capacity—not just ICU capacity—by the end of the month and in early January,” Mark Ghaly, secretary of California’s Health and Human Services agency, said during a news conference on December 21. “We don’t see that across the entire state at that time, but we’re watching it very closely.”
California opened four temporary care facilities and has another seven ready if needed. Ghaly said hospitals have been making contingency plans to activate “crisis care teams,” which would make the difficult decisions of prioritizing care among sick patients should facilities become overwhelmed.
The state so far has been able to transfer patients from overloaded hospitals to those with more capacity, but that is becoming more difficult as the outbreak grows, he said.
Even though bed availability is tight in certain parts of the country, bottlenecks often stem more from staffing constraints. Those with coronavirus are more time consuming, costly and labor-intensive than typical patients.
“We can’t really downplay the emotional strain,” said Ann-Marie Alameddin, president and chief executive officer of the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association, where hospital bed occupancy is estimated at 78% statewide. “I think there’s going to be lasting effects that we’ll be navigating for months and years to come.”
The persistence of the COVID-19 crisis has worn down the health-care workforce. While much of the public has moved on from the April period when they stayed home and clapped for medical workers, “for many of our providers, that workload, those 13-hour days haven’t really stopped,” said Andy Brailo, chief customer officer at Premier Inc., which provides purchasing, technology and consulting services to more than 4,000 hospitals.
Attrition surge
Premier’s clients have watched attrition spike, on average seeing turnover of 30% among clinical staff during the last few months, Brailo said. Some workers are retiring or shifting to part-time status. Others have been sidelined temporarily for illness or exposure to COVID-19, or must stay home to take care of children or family.
Health systems are boosting bonuses and overtime pay to recruit and retain staff, as well as reaching out to retirees. Demand for travel clinicians who take temporary assignments is extremely high.
More sophisticated care and treatments, like Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s antibody cocktail, have improved the outlook for patients who end up in hospitals. In New York, patients are moving through the hospital faster and a smaller ratio require intensive care and intubation.
As hospitals fill up, some people who might normally have been admitted for COVID-19 or other conditions get sent home instead, said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.
The strain on capacity could lead to worse outcomes particularly for people whose conditions are borderline—not so critical that they must be admitted immediately, but not so mild that they wouldn’t benefit from hospital care.
“Every bit of data suggests that a lot of those people aren’t going to do as well,” Jha said. They may get better, or return to the hospital sicker later on, or even die at home. “When you get into crowding situations, when emergency departments get overwhelmed or when hospitals get really full, everybody tends to do a little bit worse.”