幾乎從所有角度看,,2020年都是歷史性的一年——其中也包括股市,。LPL的萊恩·德特里克向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,2020年股市的瘋狂波動(dòng)可以用一個(gè)詞來(lái)概括:“難以置信”,。
“這將是歷史上第一次出現(xiàn)年中股市一度下跌30%、最終卻實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈走高的年份,?!钡绿乩锟苏f(shuō),“對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō),,這意味著很多——我們從沒(méi)見(jiàn)過(guò)像2020年這樣,,一年里打了個(gè)來(lái)回?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,,今年3月美股以創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的速度迅速跌入熊市之后,已完全實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈,目前正處于歷史高點(diǎn)附近,,截至周二收盤(pán),,今年以來(lái)已累計(jì)上漲14%。
盡管近期股市走勢(shì)有橫盤(pán)趨勢(shì),,但市場(chǎng)通常會(huì)在12月表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,,部分策略師認(rèn)為有理由相信年底股市可能再攀高峰。
遲到的12月行情,?
可以肯定的是,,在股市上,歷史模式并不總是可靠(2020年也時(shí)常證明這一點(diǎn)),。
但LPL的德特里克指出,,歷史上看(從1950年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)算起),12月下半月市場(chǎng)往往表現(xiàn)十分強(qiáng)勁,。
股市往往在12月表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,,不過(guò)圣誕老人要到下半月才來(lái)。
- 萊恩·德特里克, CMT (@RyanDetrick),,2020年12月11日
他說(shuō),,12月股市平均漲幅約為1.5%,但“幾乎所有”行情都始于12月15日,。
他說(shuō),,即使2020年一直不可預(yù)測(cè),“我們認(rèn)為今年也不會(huì)違背12月規(guī)律,。”這是因?yàn)?,疫苗開(kāi)始配送,,經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案可能通過(guò),交易員和投資者開(kāi)始休圣誕假期,,德特里克認(rèn)為交易量和波動(dòng)性應(yīng)該不大,。他說(shuō):“這可能促成年底實(shí)現(xiàn)小幅上漲,也就是歷史上常見(jiàn)的圣誕行情,?!?/p>
嘉信理財(cái)(Charles Schwab)的首席投資策略師利茲·安·桑德斯則表示,隨著2021年即將到來(lái),,主要存在兩種尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn):一是“情況甚至比我們期望的更好,”這可能導(dǎo)致“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)熱,,通貨膨脹更嚴(yán)重,將美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)置于“他們是否不得不放棄寬松政策?’的困境中,?!鄙5滤瓜颉敦?cái)富》雜志表示,“另一個(gè)極端則完全相反:我們做了一系列非常積極的假設(shè),,如果其中幾個(gè)或好幾個(gè)假設(shè)不對(duì)怎么辦?”
為回調(diào)做好準(zhǔn)備
事實(shí)上,一些華爾街人已經(jīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱感到不安,,擔(dān)心很可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)拋售——或者至少是暫緩的情況。
許多策略師都注意到了很重要的一點(diǎn),,今年行情與2009年的牛市驚人相似。(詳見(jiàn)下面嘉信金融研究中心的圖表,。)一些策略師表示,,這張圖預(yù)示著前面可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些動(dòng)蕩。
嘉信理財(cái)交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克在最近的一條推特上寫(xiě)道:“沒(méi)有人知道2021年是否還會(huì)沿著這張圖走,,但如果會(huì),1月下半月看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)令人擔(dān)憂,?!?/p>
但即使2021不繼續(xù)遵循2009-2010的曲線圖,LPL的德特里克認(rèn)為,,過(guò)去幾個(gè)月市場(chǎng)上一些“破紀(jì)錄的表現(xiàn)”,“可以這么說(shuō),,可能偷了一點(diǎn)明年的收益?!彼J(rèn)為“最令人擔(dān)心的”是估值。他認(rèn)為,,2021年第一季度出現(xiàn)10%左右的修正將是合理的,建議投資者考慮調(diào)倉(cāng),,重新實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡,。
但與此同時(shí),,嘉信理財(cái)?shù)纳5滤拐J(rèn)為,從現(xiàn)在到2021年,,投資者可能會(huì)學(xué)到一個(gè)相當(dāng)重要的教訓(xùn):“我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)不應(yīng)該依賴于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)總是會(huì)支持市場(chǎng)這樣的假設(shè),,”她說(shuō),。
“等下次市場(chǎng)回調(diào)時(shí)——雖然我不知道是什么時(shí)候,但總會(huì)調(diào)整的——如果下次回調(diào)不會(huì)威脅到金融系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定,,也不是由危機(jī)引發(fā)的,我想我們不能再依賴所謂的‘鮑威爾賣(mài)權(quán)’了,,不能認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)永伴身側(cè),為市場(chǎng)提供支撐,?!鄙5滤拐f(shuō),“2021年,,我們必須要關(guān)注這一點(diǎn),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
幾乎從所有角度看,2020年都是歷史性的一年——其中也包括股市,。LPL的萊恩·德特里克向《財(cái)富》雜志表示,,2020年股市的瘋狂波動(dòng)可以用一個(gè)詞來(lái)概括:“難以置信”,。
“這將是歷史上第一次出現(xiàn)年中股市一度下跌30%、最終卻實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈走高的年份,?!钡绿乩锟苏f(shuō),“對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō),,這意味著很多——我們從沒(méi)見(jiàn)過(guò)像2020年這樣,,一年里打了個(gè)來(lái)回?!?/p>
事實(shí)上,,今年3月美股以創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的速度迅速跌入熊市之后,已完全實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈,,目前正處于歷史高點(diǎn)附近,,截至周二收盤(pán),今年以來(lái)已累計(jì)上漲14%,。
盡管近期股市走勢(shì)有橫盤(pán)趨勢(shì),,但市場(chǎng)通常會(huì)在12月表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,部分策略師認(rèn)為有理由相信年底股市可能再攀高峰,。
遲到的12月行情,?
可以肯定的是,在股市上,,歷史模式并不總是可靠(2020年也時(shí)常證明這一點(diǎn)),。
但LPL的德特里克指出,歷史上看(從1950年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)算起),,12月下半月市場(chǎng)往往表現(xiàn)十分強(qiáng)勁,。
股市往往在12月表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,不過(guò)圣誕老人要到下半月才來(lái),。
- 萊恩·德特里克, CMT (@RyanDetrick),,2020年12月11日
他說(shuō),,12月股市平均漲幅約為1.5%,,但“幾乎所有”行情都始于12月15日,。
他說(shuō),即使2020年一直不可預(yù)測(cè),,“我們認(rèn)為今年也不會(huì)違背12月規(guī)律,。”這是因?yàn)?,疫苗開(kāi)始配送,,經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案可能通過(guò),交易員和投資者開(kāi)始休圣誕假期,,德特里克認(rèn)為交易量和波動(dòng)性應(yīng)該不大,。他說(shuō):“這可能促成年底實(shí)現(xiàn)小幅上漲,也就是歷史上常見(jiàn)的圣誕行情,?!?/p>
嘉信理財(cái)(Charles Schwab)的首席投資策略師利茲·安·桑德斯則表示,隨著2021年即將到來(lái),,主要存在兩種尾部風(fēng)險(xiǎn):一是“情況甚至比我們期望的更好,”這可能導(dǎo)致“經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)過(guò)熱,,通貨膨脹更嚴(yán)重,將美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)置于“他們是否不得不放棄寬松政策?’的困境中,?!鄙5滤瓜颉敦?cái)富》雜志表示,“另一個(gè)極端則完全相反:我們做了一系列非常積極的假設(shè),,如果其中幾個(gè)或好幾個(gè)假設(shè)不對(duì)怎么辦?”
為回調(diào)做好準(zhǔn)備
事實(shí)上,,一些華爾街人已經(jīng)對(duì)市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱感到不安,擔(dān)心很可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)拋售——或者至少是暫緩的情況,。
許多策略師都注意到了很重要的一點(diǎn),,今年行情與2009年的牛市驚人相似。(詳見(jiàn)下面嘉信金融研究中心的圖表,。)一些策略師表示,,這張圖預(yù)示著前面可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些動(dòng)蕩。
嘉信理財(cái)交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克在最近的一條推特上寫(xiě)道:“沒(méi)有人知道2021年是否還會(huì)沿著這張圖走,,但如果會(huì),,1月下半月看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)令人擔(dān)憂?!?/p>
但即使2021不繼續(xù)遵循2009-2010的曲線圖,,LPL的德特里克認(rèn)為,過(guò)去幾個(gè)月市場(chǎng)上一些“破紀(jì)錄的表現(xiàn)”,,“可以這么說(shuō),,可能偷了一點(diǎn)明年的收益,。”他認(rèn)為“最令人擔(dān)心的”是估值,。他認(rèn)為,,2021年第一季度出現(xiàn)10%左右的修正將是合理的,建議投資者考慮調(diào)倉(cāng),,重新實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡,。
但與此同時(shí),嘉信理財(cái)?shù)纳5滤拐J(rèn)為,,從現(xiàn)在到2021年,,投資者可能會(huì)學(xué)到一個(gè)相當(dāng)重要的教訓(xùn):“我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)不應(yīng)該依賴于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)總是會(huì)支持市場(chǎng)這樣的假設(shè),”她說(shuō),。
“等下次市場(chǎng)回調(diào)時(shí)——雖然我不知道是什么時(shí)候,,但總會(huì)調(diào)整的——如果下次回調(diào)不會(huì)威脅到金融系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定,也不是由危機(jī)引發(fā)的,,我想我們不能再依賴所謂的‘鮑威爾賣(mài)權(quán)’了,,不能認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)永伴身側(cè),為市場(chǎng)提供支撐,?!鄙5滤拐f(shuō),“2021年,,我們必須要關(guān)注這一點(diǎn),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
This year was a historic year by pretty much all measures—and that includes the stock market. To those like LPL's Ryan Detrick, the market's wild moves in 2020 can be summed up in one word: "Unbelievable," he tells Fortune.
"This is going to be the first year in history that stocks were down 30% for the year at one point and managed to finish higher," Detrick says. "That, to me, summarizes a lot—We’ve never seen a round-trip like 2020."
Indeed, after a record-fast plunge into a bear market in March, stocks have managed to completely recover and are currently trading around all-time highs, up 14% for the year at Tuesday's close.
Though stocks of late have traded rather sideways, December is typically a strong month for investors, and some strategists see reason to believe stocks might close out the year on a high note.
A late December rally?
To be sure, historical patterns don't always hold up when it comes to the market (that's been true of 2020 at times as well).
But LPL's Detrick points out that historically (going back to 1950 for the S&P 500), the latter half of December tended to be strong for investors.
December is usually a strong month for stocks, but Santa doesn't show until the second half of the month. pic.twitter.com/MLcAMnUZp9
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 11, 2020
He says on average December is up approximately 1.5%, but "nearly all" the gains tend to build from Dec. 15 on.
And even though 2020 has been unpredictable to say the least, "We wouldn’t want to bet against that this year," he says. That's because with a vaccine starting to be distributed, a stimulus bill likely to be passed, and traders and investors beginning to take vacation for the holidays, Detrick believes volume and volatility should be light. "That can lead to a little bit of a higher move into the end of the year, this historical Santa Claus rally," he says.
Others like Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders note that going into 2021, there are two main tail risks: One is that "things are even better than what we expect," which could create the "possibility of overheating growth, maybe more inflation, and putting the Fed in a pickle in terms of, 'do they have to back away from this easy policy?'," Sonders tells Fortune. "The other extreme would be the opposite: That we built in a pretty positive set of assumptions, and what if several or a bunch of them go wrong?"
Prepare for a pullback
Indeed, some on Wall Street are already antsy that the markets have gotten overheated and a sell off—or at least pause—might be in the cards.
One big theme many strategists noticed this year was its eerie similarity to the 2009 bull market. (See chart via Schwab Center for Financial Research below.) And according to some strategists, that map could be signaling some turbulence ahead.
"No one knows if the roadmap will continue into 2021, but if it does, the latter half of January looks a bit worrisome," Charles Schwab's vice president of trading and derivatives Randy Frederick wrote in a recent tweet.
But even if 2021 doesn't continue to follow the 2009-10 map, LPL's Detrick believes some of the "record run" of the past several months in the market "might be stealing, if you will, a little bit from some of the gains next year," he says, pointing to valuations as one of the "biggest concerns." He thinks something like a 10% correction would make sense in the 1st quarter of 2021, and suggests investors consider rebalancing with moves up or down.
But in the meantime, Schwab's Sonders believes investors can glean a pretty big lesson from 2020 heading into next year: "I don't think the market should rest on an assumption that the Fed is always going to have the market’s back," she says.
"When we get the next correction—and we’ll get one, I don’t know when—if it doesn’t threaten financial systems stability, if it’s not crisis-driven, I don't think we can rely on the so-called 'Powell Put,' that the Fed’s just always going to be there," Sonders says. "We have to be mindful of that in 2021."