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為什么美股散戶在特殊時(shí)期的損失最為慘重,?

Derek Horstmeyer
2020-05-13

散戶投資者應(yīng)該抵御住誘惑,,不要指望依靠衍生品市場(chǎng)交易來彌補(bǔ)投資組合損失。

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圖片來源:Spencer Platt—Getty Images

在COVID-19疫情期間,,美國股市的散戶可能損失特別慘重,但原因并不只是因?yàn)檫^去兩個(gè)月的整體市場(chǎng)下滑,。

在多個(gè)因素的共同影響下,,散戶(又稱零售投資者)進(jìn)行了史上最糟糕也是最有價(jià)值破壞性的投資行為。投資者進(jìn)入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的途徑增多,,零成本投資方式興起,,向非專業(yè)投資者發(fā)放的信貸額度達(dá)到史無前例的水平,投資者沒有其他方式展現(xiàn)自己的冒險(xiǎn)行為等,,這些因素導(dǎo)致許多散戶在不完全了解的情況下,,一頭扎進(jìn)了充滿波動(dòng)性的、不透明的市場(chǎng)中,,迅速損失大量資金,。

從數(shù)據(jù)中已經(jīng)能夠看出這種破壞性行為的表現(xiàn)。通常情況下,,只有機(jī)構(gòu)投資者才能進(jìn)入期貨市場(chǎng),。但我們看到,,2020年前三個(gè)月,E-迷你標(biāo)普500(E-mini S&P 500)期貨合約(該證券的設(shè)計(jì)目的就是為了吸引散戶投資者,,因?yàn)槠涑杀镜陀跇?biāo)普500期貨合約)隔夜交易中的日平均交易量增加了近一倍,。在同樣高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的期權(quán)市場(chǎng),今年1月至3月期間,,平均月交易量增加了58%,。

對(duì)于普通投資者的投資組合而言,這已經(jīng)足夠令人擔(dān)憂,,但美國股市的消息更糟糕:散戶投資者賣空交易的數(shù)量大幅增加,,而在做空市場(chǎng)時(shí),投資者的損失可能是無底洞,。3月23日,,隨著美國高市值公司的股票走出低谷,,SPY(另外一款深受散戶投資者喜愛的投資產(chǎn)品,,以標(biāo)普500指數(shù)為標(biāo)的)的空頭凈額為500億美元。接下來三個(gè)星期,,空頭凈額擴(kuò)大到660億美元,,但與此同時(shí),美國大盤股反彈了近25%,。這意味著散戶投資者匆忙做空,,又額外損失了40億美元。

散戶為什么能夠進(jìn)入這些市場(chǎng),,進(jìn)行這些大膽的操作呢,?歸根結(jié)底,主要原因在于雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)的零成本交易平臺(tái),。這些平臺(tái)支持散戶免費(fèi)購買基金,。過去兩年,Robinhood等服務(wù)的興起迫使E*Trade和富達(dá)國際(Fidelity)等傳統(tǒng)機(jī)構(gòu)也推出了類似計(jì)劃,。

除了零成本交易以外,,還有許多初創(chuàng)交易平臺(tái)為散戶投資者提供高于正常水平的透支金額(投資貸款),投資者不需要支付太多現(xiàn)金,,而且這些平臺(tái)還為投資者進(jìn)入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的期權(quán)和期貨市場(chǎng)提供了便利的途徑,。投資者只需要在手機(jī)上點(diǎn)擊幾下,就能通過這些公司的應(yīng)用程序,,在期權(quán)和期貨市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行交易——在只有1萬美元的情況下通過貸款進(jìn)行10萬美元的交易,。

除了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以外,另外一個(gè)問題是投資者認(rèn)為在新市場(chǎng)交易需要付出哪些成本,。在傳統(tǒng)的股票市場(chǎng)投資中,,交易成本是明碼標(biāo)價(jià)的(例如,,每筆交易有固定的手續(xù)費(fèi)),但在期權(quán)市場(chǎng)和其他衍生品市場(chǎng)卻截然不同,。在這些市場(chǎng)中,,真實(shí)的成本是隱性成本,隱藏在買賣價(jià)差當(dāng)中,,投資者往往難以發(fā)現(xiàn),,因此大部分散戶在作出投資決策時(shí)并不會(huì)考慮這些成本。所以,,交易一種衍生品的顯性成本即使為零,,投資者每次交易的時(shí)候可能因?yàn)殡[性成本損失10%甚至更高的投資金額。

新冠疫情迫使大部分白領(lǐng)只能在家辦公,,許多人以前日常生活中有一些小小的樂趣,,比如集體體育活動(dòng),開懷暢飲或者體育博彩等,,現(xiàn)在卻沒有了宣泄的出口,。Reddit用某些投資者用一筆小投資一夜之間獲利百萬美元的故事,填補(bǔ)了人們內(nèi)心的空虛,。這讓待在家中無聊的散戶們心生希望,,認(rèn)為自己也能一夜暴富。但事實(shí)上,,投資者在這些市場(chǎng)中進(jìn)行的“零成本”交易越多,,累積的手續(xù)費(fèi)就越高,就會(huì)對(duì)其長(zhǎng)期投資造成更大的破壞,。

今年,,眼睜睜看著股市暴跌確實(shí)會(huì)讓人陷入恐慌,但散戶投資者應(yīng)該抵御住誘惑,,不要指望依靠衍生品市場(chǎng)交易來彌補(bǔ)投資組合損失,。散貨投資者現(xiàn)在更應(yīng)該牢記金融課里的基本觀點(diǎn):最大程度降低成本,抑制住試圖把握大盤時(shí)機(jī)的沖動(dòng),,是對(duì)投資組合的未來最好的選擇,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文作者德萊克·霍斯特梅耶是喬治梅森大學(xué)(George Mason University)商學(xué)院的金融學(xué)專業(yè)副教授。

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

在COVID-19疫情期間,,美國股市的散戶可能損失特別慘重,,但原因并不只是因?yàn)檫^去兩個(gè)月的整體市場(chǎng)下滑。

在多個(gè)因素的共同影響下,,散戶(又稱零售投資者)進(jìn)行了史上最糟糕也是最有價(jià)值破壞性的投資行為,。投資者進(jìn)入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的途徑增多,零成本投資方式興起,向非專業(yè)投資者發(fā)放的信貸額度達(dá)到史無前例的水平,,投資者沒有其他方式展現(xiàn)自己的冒險(xiǎn)行為等,,這些因素導(dǎo)致許多散戶在不完全了解的情況下,一頭扎進(jìn)了充滿波動(dòng)性的,、不透明的市場(chǎng)中,,迅速損失大量資金。

從數(shù)據(jù)中已經(jīng)能夠看出這種破壞性行為的表現(xiàn),。通常情況下,,只有機(jī)構(gòu)投資者才能進(jìn)入期貨市場(chǎng)。但我們看到,,2020年前三個(gè)月,,E-迷你標(biāo)普500(E-mini S&P 500)期貨合約(該證券的設(shè)計(jì)目的就是為了吸引散戶投資者,因?yàn)槠涑杀镜陀跇?biāo)普500期貨合約)隔夜交易中的日平均交易量增加了近一倍,。在同樣高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的期權(quán)市場(chǎng),,今年1月至3月期間,平均月交易量增加了58%,。

對(duì)于普通投資者的投資組合而言,,這已經(jīng)足夠令人擔(dān)憂,但美國股市的消息更糟糕:散戶投資者賣空交易的數(shù)量大幅增加,,而在做空市場(chǎng)時(shí),,投資者的損失可能是無底洞,。3月23日,,隨著美國高市值公司的股票走出低谷,SPY(另外一款深受散戶投資者喜愛的投資產(chǎn)品,,以標(biāo)普500指數(shù)為標(biāo)的)的空頭凈額為500億美元,。接下來三個(gè)星期,空頭凈額擴(kuò)大到660億美元,,但與此同時(shí),,美國大盤股反彈了近25%。這意味著散戶投資者匆忙做空,,又額外損失了40億美元,。

散戶為什么能夠進(jìn)入這些市場(chǎng),進(jìn)行這些大膽的操作呢,?歸根結(jié)底,,主要原因在于雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)的零成本交易平臺(tái)。這些平臺(tái)支持散戶免費(fèi)購買基金,。過去兩年,,Robinhood等服務(wù)的興起迫使E*Trade和富達(dá)國際(Fidelity)等傳統(tǒng)機(jī)構(gòu)也推出了類似計(jì)劃。

除了零成本交易以外,還有許多初創(chuàng)交易平臺(tái)為散戶投資者提供高于正常水平的透支金額(投資貸款),,投資者不需要支付太多現(xiàn)金,,而且這些平臺(tái)還為投資者進(jìn)入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的期權(quán)和期貨市場(chǎng)提供了便利的途徑。投資者只需要在手機(jī)上點(diǎn)擊幾下,,就能通過這些公司的應(yīng)用程序,,在期權(quán)和期貨市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行交易——在只有1萬美元的情況下通過貸款進(jìn)行10萬美元的交易。

除了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以外,,另外一個(gè)問題是投資者認(rèn)為在新市場(chǎng)交易需要付出哪些成本,。在傳統(tǒng)的股票市場(chǎng)投資中,交易成本是明碼標(biāo)價(jià)的(例如,,每筆交易有固定的手續(xù)費(fèi)),,但在期權(quán)市場(chǎng)和其他衍生品市場(chǎng)卻截然不同。在這些市場(chǎng)中,,真實(shí)的成本是隱性成本,,隱藏在買賣價(jià)差當(dāng)中,投資者往往難以發(fā)現(xiàn),,因此大部分散戶在作出投資決策時(shí)并不會(huì)考慮這些成本,。所以,交易一種衍生品的顯性成本即使為零,,投資者每次交易的時(shí)候可能因?yàn)殡[性成本損失10%甚至更高的投資金額,。

新冠疫情迫使大部分白領(lǐng)只能在家辦公,許多人以前日常生活中有一些小小的樂趣,,比如集體體育活動(dòng),,開懷暢飲或者體育博彩等,現(xiàn)在卻沒有了宣泄的出口,。Reddit用某些投資者用一筆小投資一夜之間獲利百萬美元的故事,,填補(bǔ)了人們內(nèi)心的空虛。這讓待在家中無聊的散戶們心生希望,,認(rèn)為自己也能一夜暴富,。但事實(shí)上,投資者在這些市場(chǎng)中進(jìn)行的“零成本”交易越多,,累積的手續(xù)費(fèi)就越高,,就會(huì)對(duì)其長(zhǎng)期投資造成更大的破壞。

今年,,眼睜睜看著股市暴跌確實(shí)會(huì)讓人陷入恐慌,,但散戶投資者應(yīng)該抵御住誘惑,不要指望依靠衍生品市場(chǎng)交易來彌補(bǔ)投資組合損失,。散貨投資者現(xiàn)在更應(yīng)該牢記金融課里的基本觀點(diǎn):最大程度降低成本,,抑制住試圖把握大盤時(shí)機(jī)的沖動(dòng),,是對(duì)投資組合的未來最好的選擇。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文作者德萊克·霍斯特梅耶是喬治梅森大學(xué)(George Mason University)商學(xué)院的金融學(xué)專業(yè)副教授,。

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Individual investors may be about to lose prodigious amounts of money during the COVID-19 pandemic—but it’s not simply due to the overall market drop over the past two months.

A confluence of factors has come together to bring about some of the worst and most value-destroying behavior by individual investors, also known as retail investors, in history. Newly granted access to high-risk markets, the appearance of zero-cost investing, historic levels of credit extended to nonprofessional traders, and an absence of other outlets for risk-taking behavior have all combined to produce a situation where many retail investors are losing money hand over fist in volatile and opaque markets they don’t fully understand.

We are beginning to see this destructive behavior play out in the data. For futures markets, something normally only accessed until recently by institutional investors, we have seen average daily volume in overnight trading nearly double in the first three months of 2020 for the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract (a security specially designed to attract retail investors due to its lower cost than the total S&P 500 contract). In the equally high-risk options markets, average monthly trading volumes jumped 58% between January and March of this year.

While this is worrisome for the average investor’s portfolio, the news in the U.S. stock market is even worse—namely the severe jump in retail investors short selling, a bet against the market where losses for investors are potentially unlimited. As equities of U.S. companies with high market capitalization (also known as large-cap stocks) bottomed out on March 23, short interest on the SPY (another favorite of retail traders that tracks the S&P 500) sat at $50 billion. Short interest expanded over the next three weeks to $66 billion, but at the same time U.S. large-cap stock rebounded almost 25%. This implies that an additional $4 billion was lost over that period as retail investors rushed to short the position.

How did retail investors gain such broad access to these markets and begin to make such bold bets? Much of this can be traced back to the proliferation of what are widely known as zero-cost trading platforms, which allow individual investors to purchase funds with no fees. Over the past two years, the rise of services like Robinhood has forced traditional players like E*Trade and Fidelity to offer similar plans.

In addition to zero-cost trades, many of these startup trading platforms offer individual investors higher-than-normal amounts of margin (loans for investing) while requiring little money down, as well as easy access to high-risk options and futures markets. These companies’ apps make trading in these markets as easy as one or two taps on a phone—you can place $100,000 in trades instantly with a balance of just $10,000.

The problem here, aside from the risk taking, is what the investor believes are the costs of trading in these new markets. Unlike traditional investing in stock markets where the costs to trade are explicit (for example, a flat fee per trade placed), in options and other derivative markets the true costs are implicit and hidden to the average investor in things such as the bid-ask spread—something most retail investors don’t factor into their decision making. So even if the explicit costs to trade are zero, investors can lose 10% or more of their investment in implied costs every time they trade a derivative.

The coronavirus crisis has forced most white-collar employees to work from home, leaving many with no outlet for the small pleasures they used to enjoy in everyday life, such as group sports activities, going out for drinks, or betting on sports. Reddit is filled with tales of some investor turning a small investment into a million-dollar gain overnight. This gives that homebound, bored retail investor some hope that they can do it too. Yet the truth is that the more “zero-cost” trades the investor places in these markets, the more fees they rack up and the more they destroy their long-term investments.

It is a scary time for those who have watched the stock market plunge this year, but retail investors need to resist the allure of trading in derivatives markets as a way to make up for portfolio losses. Now more than ever, individual investors need to remember the basics of Finance 101: minimizing costs and resisting the urge to try to time the market is the best thing one can do for their portfolio’s future.

Derek Horstmeyer is an associate professor of finance at the George Mason University School of Business.

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