3月16日,美股再次自由落體,。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)開盤跌8.14%,,觸發(fā)本月第三次熔斷,美股暫停交易15分鐘,。這也是近8天來美股的第三次熔斷,,史上第四次熔斷。
截至收盤,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌324.89點(diǎn)(跌幅12.0%),;道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)下跌2,997.10點(diǎn)(跌幅12.9%);納斯達(dá)克下跌970.28點(diǎn)(跌幅12.3%),;羅素2000指數(shù)下跌172.72點(diǎn)(跌幅14.3%),。道指創(chuàng)下史上單日最大跌幅。
當(dāng)天也有意外的轉(zhuǎn)變,。宏利投資管理公司董事總經(jīng)理,、首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼宏觀策略總監(jiān)弗朗西絲·唐納德表示:“市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)從對(duì)新型冠狀病毒疫情的恐慌演變成對(duì)信用危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂?!?/p>
導(dǎo)致股市暴跌的原因是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在周日突然宣布將聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)至0%,,并將維持這一水平,“直到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)受住了近期事件的考驗(yàn),,并逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)其充分就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定目標(biāo),。”
此外,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重新啟動(dòng)了量化寬松計(jì)劃,,將購買5000億美元美國國債和2000億美元住房抵押貸款支持證券,,并擴(kuò)大回購,通過隔夜或短期購買美國國債,,向市場(chǎng)注入更多流動(dòng)性,。
有人認(rèn)為這些舉措并不對(duì)癥。投資調(diào)查公司Xallarap Advisory的創(chuàng)始人兼首席宏觀策略師艾倫·蘇克霍利茨基在寫給《財(cái)富》雜志的信中表示:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望市場(chǎng)能夠得到安慰,。但適得其反,,這些措施反而加重了市場(chǎng)的疑慮?!?/p>
Pacer Financial公司的Pacer交易所交易基金發(fā)行商部門總裁肖恩·奧哈拉也認(rèn)同這種觀點(diǎn),。他向《財(cái)富》表示:“這些舉措讓投資者感覺美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)慌了手腳。這些正常情況下能讓投資者安心的舉措,,現(xiàn)在似乎讓我們比以往更加擔(dān)心,。”
關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的動(dòng)機(jī),,有人持不同觀點(diǎn),。
銀率網(wǎng)高級(jí)副總裁兼首席金融分析師格雷戈·麥克布賴德告訴《財(cái)富》:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的措施并不是拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)或金融市場(chǎng)的靈丹妙藥。相反,,他們是在積極防止信用市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步緊縮,,而將利率下調(diào)到接近零的水平,是為了在疫情結(jié)束之后為低成本借貸奠定基礎(chǔ),?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擔(dān)心的是流動(dòng)性收縮,以及美國國債市場(chǎng)的債券銷售能力下降,。美國國債市場(chǎng)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)至關(guān)重要的一部分,。嘉信金融研究中心固定收益投資策略師考林·馬丁稱:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所做的一切……目的是保證持續(xù)的流動(dòng)性,確保市場(chǎng)正常運(yùn)行,?!?/p>
有人擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能已經(jīng)無牌可打。金融情報(bào)服務(wù)公司Qontigo的全球應(yīng)用研究總監(jiān)梅麗莎·布朗認(rèn)為:“現(xiàn)在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)沒有其他底牌,,它已經(jīng)無計(jì)可施,。”
唐納德表示,,現(xiàn)在的情況正在“從一般性衰退演變成一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī),。”投資者現(xiàn)在所擔(dān)心的是,,是否有足夠的流動(dòng)性可以保證全球金融系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)行,。
而對(duì)于股市而言,現(xiàn)在的問題是投資者會(huì)怎么做,,以及政府會(huì)采取哪些財(cái)政刺激政策,。
唐納德說:“沒有政策制定者能夠避免即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。但如果政策能夠及時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì),,可以幫助我們更快,、更有力地走出衰退?!?/p>
我們現(xiàn)在能找到的好消息是,,股市似乎即將見底,這是投資者可以買進(jìn)的信號(hào),。
唐納德說:“當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)如此糟糕,,而且你確信情況還會(huì)繼續(xù)惡化,,恐慌將四處蔓延。在這種形勢(shì)下,,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)恐慌情緒達(dá)到最高峰的時(shí)候,,就是抄底的好時(shí)機(jī)?!?/p>
但她補(bǔ)充說:“我認(rèn)為恐慌還沒有達(dá)到最高峰,。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
3月16日,,美股再次自由落體,。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)開盤跌8.14%,觸發(fā)本月第三次熔斷,,美股暫停交易15分鐘,。這也是近8天來美股的第三次熔斷,史上第四次熔斷,。
截至收盤,,標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下跌324.89點(diǎn)(跌幅12.0%);道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)下跌2,997.10點(diǎn)(跌幅12.9%),;納斯達(dá)克下跌970.28點(diǎn)(跌幅12.3%),;羅素2000指數(shù)下跌172.72點(diǎn)(跌幅14.3%)。道指創(chuàng)下史上單日最大跌幅,。
當(dāng)天也有意外的轉(zhuǎn)變,。宏利投資管理公司董事總經(jīng)理、首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼宏觀策略總監(jiān)弗朗西絲·唐納德表示:“市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)從對(duì)新型冠狀病毒疫情的恐慌演變成對(duì)信用危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂,?!?/p>
導(dǎo)致股市暴跌的原因是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在周日突然宣布將聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)至0%,并將維持這一水平,,“直到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)受住了近期事件的考驗(yàn),,并逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)其充分就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)?!?/p>
此外,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重新啟動(dòng)了量化寬松計(jì)劃,將購買5000億美元美國國債和2000億美元住房抵押貸款支持證券,,并擴(kuò)大回購,,通過隔夜或短期購買美國國債,向市場(chǎng)注入更多流動(dòng)性,。
有人認(rèn)為這些舉措并不對(duì)癥,。投資調(diào)查公司Xallarap Advisory的創(chuàng)始人兼首席宏觀策略師艾倫·蘇克霍利茨基在寫給《財(cái)富》雜志的信中表示:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望市場(chǎng)能夠得到安慰。但適得其反,這些措施反而加重了市場(chǎng)的疑慮,?!?/p>
Pacer Financial公司的Pacer交易所交易基金發(fā)行商部門總裁肖恩·奧哈拉也認(rèn)同這種觀點(diǎn)。他向《財(cái)富》表示:“這些舉措讓投資者感覺美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)慌了手腳,。這些正常情況下能讓投資者安心的舉措,,現(xiàn)在似乎讓我們比以往更加擔(dān)心?!?/p>
關(guān)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的動(dòng)機(jī),有人持不同觀點(diǎn),。
銀率網(wǎng)高級(jí)副總裁兼首席金融分析師格雷戈·麥克布賴德告訴《財(cái)富》:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的措施并不是拯救經(jīng)濟(jì)或金融市場(chǎng)的靈丹妙藥,。相反,他們是在積極防止信用市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步緊縮,,而將利率下調(diào)到接近零的水平,,是為了在疫情結(jié)束之后為低成本借貸奠定基礎(chǔ)?!?/p>
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擔(dān)心的是流動(dòng)性收縮,,以及美國國債市場(chǎng)的債券銷售能力下降。美國國債市場(chǎng)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)至關(guān)重要的一部分,。嘉信金融研究中心固定收益投資策略師考林·馬丁稱:“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所做的一切……目的是保證持續(xù)的流動(dòng)性,,確保市場(chǎng)正常運(yùn)行?!?/p>
有人擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能已經(jīng)無牌可打,。金融情報(bào)服務(wù)公司Qontigo的全球應(yīng)用研究總監(jiān)梅麗莎·布朗認(rèn)為:“現(xiàn)在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)沒有其他底牌,它已經(jīng)無計(jì)可施,?!?/p>
唐納德表示,現(xiàn)在的情況正在“從一般性衰退演變成一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī),?!蓖顿Y者現(xiàn)在所擔(dān)心的是,是否有足夠的流動(dòng)性可以保證全球金融系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)行,。
而對(duì)于股市而言,,現(xiàn)在的問題是投資者會(huì)怎么做,以及政府會(huì)采取哪些財(cái)政刺激政策,。
唐納德說:“沒有政策制定者能夠避免即將到來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。但如果政策能夠及時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì),可以幫助我們更快,、更有力地走出衰退,。”
我們現(xiàn)在能找到的好消息是,股市似乎即將見底,,這是投資者可以買進(jìn)的信號(hào),。
唐納德說:“當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)如此糟糕,而且你確信情況還會(huì)繼續(xù)惡化,,恐慌將四處蔓延,。在這種形勢(shì)下,當(dāng)市場(chǎng)恐慌情緒達(dá)到最高峰的時(shí)候,,就是抄底的好時(shí)機(jī),。”
但她補(bǔ)充說:“我認(rèn)為恐慌還沒有達(dá)到最高峰,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Another day, another massive freefall.
The S&P 500 fell 324.89 (12.0%); the Dow Industrials was down 2,997.10 (12.9%); the Nasdaq lost 970.28 (12.3%) and the Russell 2000 was off 172.72 (14.3%). The Dow's drop represented the largest one-day point loss ever.
There was also a twist today. "This market has moved beyond coronavirus and into credit crisis," said Frances Donald, managing director, chief economist, and head of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management.
It comes down to the Federal Reserve's Sunday surprise, starting with a drop to a 0% federal funds rate that it will maintain "until the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."
Additionally, the Fed will effectively resurrect quantitative easing, purchasing $500 billion in Treasurys and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, and expand its repo operations, in which it purchases Treasurys on an overnight or short-term basis to provide more liquidity to markets.
Some felt the efforts were more a miss than a hit. "The Fed hoped that the market would take solace," Allen Sukholitsky, founder and chief macro strategist at Xallarap Advisory, wrote in a note to Fortune. "Instead, the market became suspicious."
"This makes it look like the Fed is panicking," Sean O'Hara, president of Pacer ETF Distributors at Pacer Financial, agreed in a note to Fortune. "What normally would look like something reassuring, is now looking like we all should be much more worried than we were."
Others disagreed about the intent.
"The Fed's moves were not designed to be a panacea for the economy or financial markets," Greg McBride, senior vice president & chief financial analyst at Bankrate, noted to Fortune. "Instead, they are acting aggressively to prevent further tightening of credit markets and have cut interest rates to near zero to set the stage for low cost borrowing once the virus has passed."
What has worried the Fed was contracting liquidity and lowered ability to sell bonds in the Treasury bond market, a critical part of the global economic system. "What the Fed has been doing … [is] making sure liquidity continues and that markets can function properly," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist of the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Others were worried that there's no more ammunition. "The Fed has nothing more to do now and there's nowhere to go," said Melissa Brown, global director of applied research at financial intelligence service Qontigo."
Conditions are "moving away from garden variety recession to a financial crisis," Donald said. The worry is whether there is enough liquidity to keep global financial systems working they way they should.
For equity markets, the question is what investors will do now. And what governments will implement in terms of fiscal stimulus.
"No policymaker can help us avoid the recession that is coming," Donald said. "But policies can help us come out faster and stronger if they're targeted in time."
The good news, such as can be found, is that the bottom, while not quite here, seems on its way, and that could be a sign for investors to buy.
"When the market is so bad and you believe it's only going to get worse and panic is running everywhere—when panic has peaked, that is a good time," Donald said.
However, "I don't think panic has peaked," she added.