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風投人士、億萬富翁,、加密貨幣界傳奇蒂姆·德雷普有個主意：把加利福尼亞一分為三,。

這個想法從一開始就注定要失敗，原因至少有五個,。不過,，還是讓我們先聽聽德雷普的計劃。

在德雷普看來,，較小的州會由更高效而且不那么官僚的政府管理,，原因是他們得爭奪居民和企業(yè)。教育,、安全,、基礎設施和醫(yī)療保健情況都將改善。稅率也會較低,。作為投資人,，德雷普的名聲源于他對Hotmail、Skype和特斯拉（Tesla）等大型科技公司的投資,。德雷普說,，如果加州一分為三，他“就可以不必再去考慮自己,、Draper Associates,、Draper Venture Network和Draper University搬出加州的事了”。

幾年前德雷普買下了美國政府扣留的一大筆比特幣,，并因此大賺了一票,。經(jīng)過了從民主黨到共和黨再到自由派的轉變后,，現(xiàn)在他成了，嗯,，自己的黨,，他相信加州的問題在于缺乏競爭。這個黨的政治目標很簡單,，那就是拆散加利福尼亞。

德雷普表示,，他已經(jīng)為此收集到了60多萬個簽名,，幾乎是此項計劃成為選舉日公投提案所需簽名數(shù)量的兩倍。不過,，德雷普還需要在6月13日之前對這些簽名進行驗證,，并得到各縣政府的確認。德雷普在電子郵件中說：“我的目標是讓它成為公投提案,，而隨后能否看到新權力之美并擁抱它就要看加利福尼亞的民眾了,。”

與此同時,，德雷普將面臨著諸多不利的情況：

1. 上次出現(xiàn)這種情況還是在美國內戰(zhàn)時期

美國上次同意分拆一個州是在1863年,，當時西弗吉尼亞在內戰(zhàn)達到高峰時脫離了弗吉尼亞。但就算在那個時候,，此事仍花了兩年時間來解決法律問題,，并得到了總統(tǒng)批準。

總統(tǒng)亞伯拉罕·林肯最終簽字同意了此事,，但他擔心這將成為其他州今后的“榜樣”,。無需多言，分拆一個州沒有清晰程序可循,。

2.共和黨人不會同意

就算德雷普讓加利福尼亞選民接受了分拆方案,，政府法律專家稱此事可能需要經(jīng)過國會（這方面同樣沒有明確的程序）。而且沒有任何跡象表明共和黨議員會同意拆分加州,。

一分為三后,，每個新州會有1200-1400萬人口，如果都獲得兩個參議院席位,，國會里的民主黨議員就會變多,。德雷普的分拆方案至少會形成兩個鐵桿民主黨州。

加州大學伯克利分校政治學教授杰克·西特林問道：“共和黨人有什么理由要多弄出兩個民主黨參議員來呢,？”

得到政府批準的可能性看來更小,。總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普和加州在移民政策,、環(huán)保法規(guī)等一系列問題上一直矛盾重重,。特朗普絕不會給加州幫忙。

3.德雷普以往拆分方案從未成功

德雷普的想法或許讓人覺得似曾相識。原因是2014年他曾提出一個非常類似的方案,，要把加州拆分成六個“初創(chuàng)”州,。

但未能在2014年的最終期限前將此事納入公投提案，2016年再次失敗,。盡管第二次德雷普拿出了超過113萬個簽名,，但政府方面認為合格的只有752,685個。

對于這次失敗,，德雷普的回應是加州的簽名認證程序過于陳舊,，而且進一步證明加州目前的管理體系運轉失靈，需要新的政府,。

4. 一些加州人只想徹底脫離美國

德雷普的一分為三方案面臨著競爭,。一些有類似想法的人也在追求更好的教育制度和更改稅制，他們希望加州仍是一個整體,，但通過“Calexit”運動脫離美國,。提議者認為脫美可以讓加州更太平，因為作為美國的一部分讓加州成了恐怖襲擊目標,。

Calexit此前也做過嘗試,，但以失敗告終。它面臨著一些巨大障礙,，比如從聯(lián)邦角度講需要修憲,，需要獲得國會三分之二的支持票以及38個州的認可。Calexit還認為得克薩斯或許非?？赡苡心芰M行自我拆分,，但這種情況一直沒有出現(xiàn)。

除此之外,，Calexit 已經(jīng)獲準為2021年公投收集簽名,。

5. 加州內部分歧增大

加州內部的政治分歧越來越大。而且德雷普的提議把一些關系一直不好的縣放在了一個州里,。

以加州最北部為例,，那里的部分居民多年來一直想跟俄勒岡州南部合并成立“杰斐遜”州。對于和灣區(qū)以及薩格拉門托“共處一室”,，當?shù)卦S多選民實際上不會感到興奮,。

加州大學洛杉磯分校公共政策講師吉姆·紐頓不相信人們會認為三個州長、三個州議會或者三個不同的教育部門會改善他們的生活,。

紐頓說：“我覺得這在本質上并不理性,。”他還認為德雷普的計劃“在政治上注定要失敗”,。

德雷普本人呢,？他說自己仍抱有希望,，畢竟，“在政治領域什么事都有可能發(fā)生”,。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

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Tim Draper, the billionaire venture capitalist and legend in the world of cryptocurrency, has an idea: Let’s split California into three separate states.

There are at least five reasons why this idea is doomed from the start, but first, here’s his case:

The way Draper sees it, smaller states would be run by more efficient and less bureaucratic governments as they compete for residents and business. Education, safety, infrastructure and health care would improve. Taxes would be lower. And the investor who made a name for himself funding tech giants like Hotmail, Skype and Tesla Inc. says he “won’t have to think anymore about moving myself, Draper Associates, the Draper Venture Network and Draper University out of California.”

Draper — who scored a huge windfall a few years back when he bought a load of bitcoin that had been seized by the U.S. government— has gone from being a Democrat to Republican to Libertarian to, well, his own party that believes California’s government’s problem is that it lacks competition. The party platform is simple: break up California.

Draper says he’s already gathered more than 600,000 signatures for his initiative, almost double the number he needs to get his plan on the ballot come Election Day. He still needs to get the signatures verified and confirmed by counties by June 13.“My goal is to get it on the ballot, and then it is up to Californians to see the beauty of a new empowerment, and run with it,’’ Draper said by email.

Meanwhile, here’s what he’s got going against him:

1. Last Time This Happened Was During the Civil War

The last time the U.S. approved the breakup of a state was in 1863, when West Virginia moved to split with Virginia at the height of the Civil War. Even then, it took a two-year legal battle and presidential approval.

President Abraham Lincoln eventually signed off on the split, but he worried at the time about the precedent it would set for states going forward. Needless to say, there is no clear process for a breakup of a state.

2. Why Would Any Republican Want This?

Even if Draper gets California’s voters to buy into the idea of a split, government law experts say the plan would probably take an act of Congress. (Again, there’s no clear-cut process.) And there’s no indication that Republicans in Washington would be amenable to a breakup.

If each of the three new California states – with a population of about 12 million to 14 million people – were granted two senators, Congress could be welcoming more Democrats into its chambers. Draper’s envisioned borders would form at least two solidly blue states.

“Why would any Republican want to create two more Democratic senators?” asked Jack Citrin, a professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley.

Executive approval is looking even less likely. President Donald Trump and California have been clashing on everything from immigration policy to environmental regulations. Trump’s in no mood to be doing favors for the Golden State.

3. Check Draper’s Track Record

Draper’s idea might ring a bell. That’s because, in 2014, he came up with a very similar initiative to divide California into six “startup” states.

His campaign missed the deadline to make it onto the 2014 ballot and then failed to qualify for the one in 2016. While he submitted more than 1.13 million signatures that time around, officials estimated only 752,685 were valid.

Draper’s response to falling short: The state’s signature verification process was archaic and just further proof that California’s current system is dysfunctional and needs new governments.

4. Some Californians Just Want Out of the Entire U.S.

Draper’s three-state initiative has competition. Some similarly minded individuals, who are also pushing for better education and a tax overhaul, want California to remain whole but secede from the U.S. in a movement coined “Calexit.” The proponents say secession will promote peace and security, because being part of the U.S. makes the state a target for terrorism.

This movement has tried and failed in the past. It faces some major hurdles, such as a federally required constitutional amendment, a two-thirds vote in Congress and ratification by 38 states. It also says something that Texas may very well be the one state that has the power to split itself – and it hasn’t.

That all aside, Calexit has been cleared to start collecting signatures for a 2021 referendum.

5. California’s Differences Run Deep

Political disputes within California run deep. And Draper is proposing to form states out of counties that haven’t always gotten along so well.

Take the far-north region of California, where some have for years longed to unite with southern Oregon to form a new state called “Jefferson.” Many voters in that area wouldn’t exactly be thrilled with the idea of being lumped together with the Bay Area and Sacramento.

Jim Newton, a public policy lecturer at the University of California at Los Angeles, isn’t convinced people will see their lives as better served by three different governors, three different legislatures or three different Departments of Education.

“I don’t think it’s substantively sensible,” he said, calling Draper’s initiative “politically doomed.”

As for Draper himself? He said he remains hopeful. After all, he said, “Anything can happen in politics.”