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逆風收購化石燃料資產(chǎn),股神的葫蘆里究竟賣的什么藥,?

Katherine Dunn
2020-07-11

為什么世界上最成功的選股高手巴菲特現(xiàn)在要做多化石燃料,?

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對于2020年的市場動向,,哪怕是業(yè)余觀察者也知道一件事:能源行業(yè)哀鴻一片,。石油股下跌,破產(chǎn)企業(yè)增加,,更不用說世界各國政府都在大張旗鼓地推行以低碳為特色的“綠色新政”。

那么,,為什么世界上最成功的選股高手,、商業(yè)大亨沃倫·巴菲特現(xiàn)在要做多化石燃料呢?

美東時間7月5日,,巴菲特終于打破數(shù)月的沉寂,,再次祭出大手筆。伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司宣布斥資40億美元收購道明尼能源公司(Dominion Energy)的天然氣輸送網(wǎng)絡(luò)和儲存資產(chǎn),,并承擔57億美元的債務(wù),。此舉表明,巴菲特非常看好化石燃料在可預見未來的財務(wù)價值,。

這個時機煞是奇怪,,道明尼能源的首席執(zhí)行官此前表示,出于財務(wù)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的考慮,,這家總部位于里士滿的公用事業(yè)公司希望退出天然氣業(yè)務(wù),。道明尼能源已經(jīng)承諾到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零碳排放,該目標要求其迅速轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源,。這是包括殼牌和英國石油在內(nèi)的一些世界最大能源公司所青睞的戰(zhàn)略,。(天然氣的碳排放量約為煤炭的一半,因此經(jīng)常被吹捧為一種更加環(huán)保,、更有助于減排的替代能源,,但它的低碳程度仍然不足以實現(xiàn)最雄心勃勃的減排目標。)

通過收購這些資產(chǎn),,巴菲特將獲得一個東海岸液化天然氣(LNG)航運碼頭,,這是美國僅有的六個LNG終端之一。而正是這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,,幫助美國蓬勃發(fā)展的頁巖氣行業(yè)非常方便地將其產(chǎn)品出口到世界其他地區(qū),。不幸的是,世界現(xiàn)在根本不需要這么多天然氣:由于持續(xù)多年的頁巖氣熱潮導致天然氣嚴重過剩,,再加上新冠疫情對需求端的沖擊,,其價格在今年5月跌至25年來的最低點。

這筆交易還會讓巴菲特背上一些政治包袱,。在7月6日的電話會議上,,道明尼能源的首席執(zhí)行官湯姆·法雷爾二世表示,對天然氣輸送和儲存業(yè)務(wù)的投資“很容易招惹官司,、極具不確定性,,而且非常昂貴?!?/p>

在這個行業(yè),,曠日持久的官司儼然成為“一種趨勢?!狈ɡ谞栄a充說,,“盡管我們對美國的經(jīng)濟增長和能源安全深感擔憂,但這種新現(xiàn)實使得我們無法按照既定步伐發(fā)展壯大這些資產(chǎn),?!?/p>

在出售天然氣業(yè)務(wù)的同時,道明尼能源宣布放棄與杜克能源(Duke Energy)聯(lián)合開發(fā),,旨在將天然氣從西弗吉尼亞州輸送到北卡羅來納州的大西洋海岸管道項目,。法雷爾解釋說,,這一決定反映了圍繞此類項目的“大規(guī)模不確定性”。同一天,,一名聯(lián)邦法官裁定達科他輸油管道采用不當方法獲得一項關(guān)鍵的環(huán)境許可證,,并下令將其關(guān)閉。

對于這筆收購交易背后的理由,,巴菲特透露甚少,,但他不太可能被環(huán)保壓力所左右。多年來,,這位“奧馬哈先知”跨越能源鴻溝,,兩頭下注。他既大舉投資太陽能和其他可再生能源,,又構(gòu)筑起了一個龐大的傳統(tǒng)能源組合,,并由此成為世界上碳密集度最高的億萬富翁之一。

巴菲特或許持有這樣一種頗為得體的觀點:從長遠來看,,隨著美國經(jīng)濟逐步擺脫新冠疫情陰影,,能源需求將駛?cè)肷仙壍溃男沦Y產(chǎn)非常符合這種前景,。他賭的是,,化石燃料將比可再生能源項目更迅速地滿足這種需求。

市場觀察家很可能會承認第一點,。未來幾十年,,在人口增長、工業(yè)化,、全球中產(chǎn)階級崛起等因素的推動下,,世界將面臨與日俱增的能源需求——同時還要努力實現(xiàn)能源多樣化。事實上,,??松梨诘裙绢A測稱,世界將在未來幾十年需要更多的能源,,而其中大部分需求仍然將由化石燃料來滿足,。這些能源巨頭甚至高調(diào)宣稱,其投資策略正是建立在這一假設(shè)之上,。

國際能源署警告稱,,盡管引人注目的減排承諾層出不窮,但這些承諾缺乏投資支撐,。該機構(gòu)在今年2月表示,世界上最大的油氣公司僅有1%的投資用于清潔能源,。本月早些時候,,國際能源署再次警告說,,世界根本無法滿足對可再生能源的需求。

換句話說,,這種缺口意味著對傳統(tǒng)天然氣的需求看漲,。

此外,如果世界經(jīng)濟真的開始復蘇,,新冠疫情很可能會讓那些規(guī)模龐大,、并且生存下來的能源公司(或投資者)受益。早在這場危機爆發(fā)前,,美國頁巖氣行業(yè)就負債累累,,異常脆弱。到5月底,,需求下降已經(jīng)導致頁巖氣先驅(qū)切薩皮克能源(Chesapeake Energy)和懷廷石油(Whiting Petroleum)等公司相繼陣亡,,就連一些業(yè)界巨頭也宣布大幅削減短期產(chǎn)量和長期投資。

如果巴菲特的新資產(chǎn)非常穩(wěn)健,,足以承受不景氣年份對油氣行業(yè)的不利影響,,那么對于股神來說,這些資產(chǎn)就有可能是一筆頗具價值的收購,。

與此同時,,自巴菲特宣布這筆交易以來,天然氣價格已經(jīng)上漲8.1%,,繼續(xù)從6月下旬創(chuàng)下的數(shù)十年低點回升,。這表明他的賭注背后不乏推動力。但回報并不是必然的,。截至7月8日早間,,天然氣價格較年初累計下降了14.6%。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

對于2020年的市場動向,,哪怕是業(yè)余觀察者也知道一件事:能源行業(yè)哀鴻一片,。石油股下跌,破產(chǎn)企業(yè)增加,,更不用說世界各國政府都在大張旗鼓地推行以低碳為特色的“綠色新政”,。

那么,為什么世界上最成功的選股高手,、商業(yè)大亨沃倫·巴菲特現(xiàn)在要做多化石燃料呢,?

美東時間7月5日,巴菲特終于打破數(shù)月的沉寂,,再次祭出大手筆,。伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司宣布斥資40億美元收購道明尼能源公司(Dominion Energy)的天然氣輸送網(wǎng)絡(luò)和儲存資產(chǎn),并承擔57億美元的債務(wù),。此舉表明,,巴菲特非??春没剂显诳深A見未來的財務(wù)價值。

這個時機煞是奇怪,,道明尼能源的首席執(zhí)行官此前表示,,出于財務(wù)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的考慮,這家總部位于里士滿的公用事業(yè)公司希望退出天然氣業(yè)務(wù),。道明尼能源已經(jīng)承諾到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零碳排放,,該目標要求其迅速轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源。這是包括殼牌和英國石油在內(nèi)的一些世界最大能源公司所青睞的戰(zhàn)略,。(天然氣的碳排放量約為煤炭的一半,,因此經(jīng)常被吹捧為一種更加環(huán)保、更有助于減排的替代能源,,但它的低碳程度仍然不足以實現(xiàn)最雄心勃勃的減排目標,。)

通過收購這些資產(chǎn),巴菲特將獲得一個東海岸液化天然氣(LNG)航運碼頭,,這是美國僅有的六個LNG終端之一,。而正是這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,幫助美國蓬勃發(fā)展的頁巖氣行業(yè)非常方便地將其產(chǎn)品出口到世界其他地區(qū),。不幸的是,,世界現(xiàn)在根本不需要這么多天然氣:由于持續(xù)多年的頁巖氣熱潮導致天然氣嚴重過剩,再加上新冠疫情對需求端的沖擊,,其價格在今年5月跌至25年來的最低點,。

這筆交易還會讓巴菲特背上一些政治包袱。在7月6日的電話會議上,,道明尼能源的首席執(zhí)行官湯姆·法雷爾二世表示,,對天然氣輸送和儲存業(yè)務(wù)的投資“很容易招惹官司、極具不確定性,,而且非常昂貴,。”

在這個行業(yè),,曠日持久的官司儼然成為“一種趨勢,。”法雷爾補充說,,“盡管我們對美國的經(jīng)濟增長和能源安全深感擔憂,,但這種新現(xiàn)實使得我們無法按照既定步伐發(fā)展壯大這些資產(chǎn)?!?/p>

在出售天然氣業(yè)務(wù)的同時,,道明尼能源宣布放棄與杜克能源(Duke Energy)聯(lián)合開發(fā),旨在將天然氣從西弗吉尼亞州輸送到北卡羅來納州的大西洋海岸管道項目,。法雷爾解釋說,,這一決定反映了圍繞此類項目的“大規(guī)模不確定性”,。同一天,一名聯(lián)邦法官裁定達科他輸油管道采用不當方法獲得一項關(guān)鍵的環(huán)境許可證,,并下令將其關(guān)閉。

對于這筆收購交易背后的理由,,巴菲特透露甚少,,但他不太可能被環(huán)保壓力所左右。多年來,,這位“奧馬哈先知”跨越能源鴻溝,,兩頭下注。他既大舉投資太陽能和其他可再生能源,,又構(gòu)筑起了一個龐大的傳統(tǒng)能源組合,,并由此成為世界上碳密集度最高的億萬富翁之一。

巴菲特或許持有這樣一種頗為得體的觀點:從長遠來看,,隨著美國經(jīng)濟逐步擺脫新冠疫情陰影,,能源需求將駛?cè)肷仙壍溃男沦Y產(chǎn)非常符合這種前景,。他賭的是,,化石燃料將比可再生能源項目更迅速地滿足這種需求。

市場觀察家很可能會承認第一點,。未來幾十年,,在人口增長、工業(yè)化,、全球中產(chǎn)階級崛起等因素的推動下,,世界將面臨與日俱增的能源需求——同時還要努力實現(xiàn)能源多樣化。事實上,,??松梨诘裙绢A測稱,世界將在未來幾十年需要更多的能源,,而其中大部分需求仍然將由化石燃料來滿足,。這些能源巨頭甚至高調(diào)宣稱,其投資策略正是建立在這一假設(shè)之上,。

國際能源署警告稱,,盡管引人注目的減排承諾層出不窮,但這些承諾缺乏投資支撐,。該機構(gòu)在今年2月表示,,世界上最大的油氣公司僅有1%的投資用于清潔能源。本月早些時候,,國際能源署再次警告說,,世界根本無法滿足對可再生能源的需求,。

換句話說,這種缺口意味著對傳統(tǒng)天然氣的需求看漲,。

此外,,如果世界經(jīng)濟真的開始復蘇,新冠疫情很可能會讓那些規(guī)模龐大,、并且生存下來的能源公司(或投資者)受益,。早在這場危機爆發(fā)前,美國頁巖氣行業(yè)就負債累累,,異常脆弱,。到5月底,需求下降已經(jīng)導致頁巖氣先驅(qū)切薩皮克能源(Chesapeake Energy)和懷廷石油(Whiting Petroleum)等公司相繼陣亡,,就連一些業(yè)界巨頭也宣布大幅削減短期產(chǎn)量和長期投資,。

如果巴菲特的新資產(chǎn)非常穩(wěn)健,足以承受不景氣年份對油氣行業(yè)的不利影響,,那么對于股神來說,,這些資產(chǎn)就有可能是一筆頗具價值的收購。

與此同時,,自巴菲特宣布這筆交易以來,,天然氣價格已經(jīng)上漲8.1%,繼續(xù)從6月下旬創(chuàng)下的數(shù)十年低點回升,。這表明他的賭注背后不乏推動力,。但回報并不是必然的。截至7月8日早間,,天然氣價格較年初累計下降了14.6%,。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

Even a casual observer to the markets knows one thing about 2020: The energy sector is in trouble. Oil stocks are down, bankruptcies are up, and governments around the world are pushing for the equivalent of a low-carbon Green New Deal.

Why then is Warren Buffett, the world's most successful stock picker and business tycoon, going long on fossil fuels right now?

Buffett broke his dealmaking drought earlier this week when Berkshire Hathaway announced it would acquire Dominion Energy's pipeline network and storage assets for $4 billion, with the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt—a resounding vote in favor of the financial value of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

The timing was odd. Dominion's chief executive had said the company, based in Richmond, wanted out of the business for both financial and sustainability reasons. Dominion has committed to lowering its emissions to net zero by 2050, a target that will require it to shift to renewables at rapid speed. It's a strategy favored by some of the world's largest energy companies, including Shell and BP. (While natural gas has about half the emissions of coal, and is therefore often touted as a more environmentally friendly alternative on the way to lowering emissions, it is still not low-carbon enough to meet the most ambitious emissions goals.)

In buying the assets, Buffett will gain an East Coast shipping terminal, one of only six in the country, for liquid natural gas (LNG), the very infrastructure that allows the U.S.'s shale boom bounty to be conveniently exported to the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the world simply doesn't need any more natural gas right now: The shale boom has produced years of hefty surpluses, and with COVID-19 hitting demand, prices hit a quarter-decade low in May.

Buffett will also be acquiring some political baggage in the deal. In a Monday call, Dominion CEO Tom Farrell II said that investment in gas transmission and storage had become "increasingly litigious, uncertain, and costly."

"This trend" of protracted legal battles, Farrell continued, "though deeply concerning for our country’s economic growth and energy security, is the new reality which threatens the pace at which we intended to grow these assets."

The sale came alongside Dominion's announcement that it had dropped its Atlantic Coast pipeline project, a joint project with Duke Energy to pump gas from West Virginia to North Carolina, a decision that Farrell said reflected "large-scale uncertainty" around such projects. The same day, a federal judge ordered the Dakota Access pipeline to shut down, ruling it had not properly been granted a key environmental permit.

Buffett has revealed little about his rationale for the deal, though he's unlikely to be swayed by the environmental pressure. The Oracle of Omaha has played both sides of the energy divide over the years. He's invested in solar and other renewable forms of energy and has built up a large traditional energy portfolio, making him one of the most carbon-intensive billionaires in the world.

Long-term, there is a decent argument to be made that Buffett's new assets fit with a vision that energy demand will move in one direction—up—as the American economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. And he'd be betting that fossil fuels will meet that demand more readily than renewable energy projects.

Market observers will concede him the first point. The world is facing rising energy demand in the coming decades, buoyed by larger populations, industrialization, and the rising global middle class—alongside a struggle to diversify energy sources. In fact, companies like Exxon Mobil have openly based their investment strategies on the assumption that the world will need more energy in the decades to come, and that much of that demand will still be met by fossil fuels.

And the International Energy Agency has warned that despite the surge in high-profile carbon-cutting pledges, the investment behind those promises is lacking. In February the agency said that just 1% of investment by the world's largest oil and gas companies is in clean energy, and earlier this month it warned again that the world was simply not on track to meet the demand for renewable energy.

In that shortfall, in other words, sits demand for good old natural gas.

Further, if the world's economy does start to recover, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely serve to benefit those energy companies—or investors—who were big enough to survive. The U.S. shale sector went into the crisis loaded with debt and surprisingly fragile. By late May, the drop in demand had already claimed casualties including shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy and Whiting Petroleum, while even the sector's biggest hitters have announced sprawling short-term cuts to production and long-term cuts to investment.

Those could add up to a valuable buy for Buffett if the assets are robust enough to stand up to what could be punishing years for oil and gas.

Meanwhile, since Buffett's announcement this week, natural-gas prices have risen 8.1%, continuing to recover from the multi-decade low hit in late June, showing some momentum behind his bet. But a payoff is no certainty. As of July 8 morning, natural gas was down 14.6% year to date.

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