讓我們來(lái)聊聊預(yù)期管理,。

表面上看,，第一季度企業(yè)收益激增。

根據(jù)路孚特（Refinitiv）今天發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù),，到目前為止,，公布了第一季度業(yè)績(jī)的229家公司中有77％收益高于預(yù)期。

從Facebook到星巴克再到亞馬遜,，各行各業(yè)的公司本周公布的業(yè)績(jī)都超出了市場(chǎng)估計(jì),，讓投資者相信美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行良好。再加上美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)——本季度增速快于預(yù)期,，年化增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)3.2％,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)再創(chuàng)歷史新高似乎理所當(dāng)然,。

但這些都是表象，而且似乎對(duì)于很多公司而言,，盈利高于預(yù)期這不過(guò)是因?yàn)樗麄冎鞍杨A(yù)期定得太低,，超過(guò)預(yù)期幾乎是板上釘釘?shù)氖虑椤ｋm然預(yù)期管理的做法從華爾街剛起步的時(shí)候就有了,，但似乎現(xiàn)在各大公司都在鄭重其事地使用這種手段,。這種盈利超過(guò)預(yù)期的情況，“到底是因?yàn)轭A(yù)期過(guò)低還是市場(chǎng)環(huán)境更好,？你必須要回答問(wèn)題”,，TIAA銀行全球市場(chǎng)總裁克里斯·加夫尼說(shuō)。

去年第四季度股市大幅下挫,，再加上全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩,、美國(guó)利率上調(diào)等可怕晦暗的市場(chǎng)前景，許多公司降低了對(duì)2019年的預(yù)期,?！跋麡O的導(dǎo)向和調(diào)整更加更引人注目，哪怕這不過(guò)是正?，F(xiàn)象,。”加夫尼說(shuō),，“當(dāng)時(shí)悲觀情緒嚴(yán)重,，看不到太多的樂(lè)觀態(tài)度?！比绻麑?duì)一些利潤(rùn)超出預(yù)期的公司進(jìn)行深入研究,，會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)果本身沒(méi)看上去那么美好。

高盛集團(tuán)（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）本月早些時(shí)候“擊敗了”對(duì)盈利的預(yù)測(cè),。但根據(jù)CNBC的數(shù)據(jù),，該公司收入下降了13％至88.1億美元，低于分析師預(yù)估的89億美元,。CNBC表示,，康卡斯特（Comcast）公司盈利也超過(guò)了華爾街的預(yù)測(cè)，但其收入為268.6億美元,，低于路孚特調(diào)研中分析師預(yù)估的272億美元,。

哪怕是第一季度高高興興地“擊敗”了華爾街預(yù)估值的公司也不一定會(huì)感到樂(lè)觀。FactSet的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，第一季度,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)公司中有79家公司發(fā)布了消極的收益指導(dǎo),，而2018年第四季度為71家,。5年的平均數(shù)是74。美國(guó)銀行美林證券分析師的研究結(jié)果顯示，公司財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議中提及“更好”或“更強(qiáng)”的次數(shù)與“更差”或“更弱”之間的差額是2016年第一季度以來(lái)的最低水平,，而且“提及樂(lè)觀情緒的次數(shù)減少了”,，這是個(gè)悲觀的跡象。

不過(guò),，投資者似乎會(huì)把所有的驚喜都看得很重,。總體而言,，到第一季度末,，摩根大通的分析師在一份報(bào)告中寫道，截至報(bào)告期末,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成分公司應(yīng)該因?yàn)椤袄麧?rùn)優(yōu)于原先擔(dān)心的數(shù)值”收獲4％至5％的盈余驚喜以及2％至3％的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng),。

以上種種，都是關(guān)于期望管理,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Talk about managing expectations.

From the looks of it, corporate earnings surged in the first quarter.

So far, 77 percent of the 229 companies that reported have posted better-than-expected earnings result, according to data by Refinitiv published today.

Companies across industries–from Facebook Inc. to Starbucks Corp. to Amazon.com Inc.–posted results this week that beat estimates and gave investors confidence that the U.S. economy is in good shape. Taken together with today’s U.S. economic growth figure, which expanded at a faster pace in the quarter than expected, at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, it’s no wonder this week the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched record highs.

But scratch the surface, and it appears that many of those earnings surprises were a result of companies managing expectations down so far that beating them was almost a certainty. Though this is a game as old as Wall Street itself, it’s being played in earnest right now. Are these earnings wins, “because of the lower expectations or a result of a better environment for companies? That’s the question you have to ask,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank.

Many companies lowered expectations heading into 2019 after the stock market’s swoon in the fourth quarter and over fearful prospects of a global growth slowdown and higher U.S. interest rates. “The negative guidance and revisions were much more dramatic even though it’s such a normal occurrence,” said Gaffney. “There was a lot of pessimism and not a lot of optimism.” And dig deeper into a few companies that beat expectations, and the results themselves don’t look too rosy.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. earlier this month ‘beat’ estimates on earnings. But revenue dropped 13 percent to $8.81 billion, below analysts’ $8.9 billion estimate, according to CNBC. Comcast Corp. also surpassed Wall Street’s forecasts on earnings but posted revenue of $26.86 billion, lower than the $27.2 billion expected in a Refinitiv survey of analysts, CNBC said.

And even companies that cheerfully ‘beat’ estimates in the first quarter weren’t necessarily feeling too upbeat. In the first quarter, 79 companies in the S&P 500 issued negative guidance versus 71 in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to FactSet data. The five-year average is 74 companies. And in a pessimistic sign, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts’ research showed that mentions of “better” or “stronger” versus “worse” or “weaker” on company calls were tracking the lowest since the first quarter of 2016, and “mentions of optimism have waned.”

Still, investors seem to be heavily weighting any positive surprises. Overall, by the end of the first quarter, J.P. Morgan & Chase & Co. analysts wrote in a report that S&P 500 companies should post a 4 percent to 5 percent earnings surprise “on better than feared margins” and profit growth of 2 percent to 3 percent by the end of the reporting period.

It’s all about managing those expectations.