公司債務(wù)

借多少錢才算過多,？

即使是在情況良好的時候，為巨額債務(wù)償還利息也有可能削弱公司的盈利能力。面對不斷減速的經(jīng)濟或持續(xù)上升的利率,，公司受到的打擊將是前者的兩倍或三倍,。咨詢公司麥肯錫的統(tǒng)計顯示，全球公司債務(wù)現(xiàn)已突破66萬億美元,，而金融危機前的規(guī)模為29萬億,，鑒于前述原因，了解這些數(shù)字會讓人變得清醒,。

美國公司總負債為15萬億美元左右,，占美國GDP的73.5%，接近歷史最高點,。據(jù)證券行業(yè)估算,，2018年底美國公司債券總額達到9.2萬億美元。同時,，盡管利率一直很低,，但很大一部分公司債務(wù)的風(fēng)險和成本都較高?；葑u評級的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，截至今年2月底，風(fēng)險較大的垃圾級債券占美國公司債券的20%以上,，另有46.7%的債券評級為“BBB”,，比垃圾級高一檔。

部分行業(yè)在債務(wù)中陷得較深,?；葑u評級資深主管帕特里克·芬尼根指出，杠桿已經(jīng)很高的行業(yè)包括醫(yī)療保健,、制藥,、食品飲料和能源，而且其杠桿換取的很大一部分資金都用在了并購上,。當(dāng)然,，杠桿本身并不壞，前提是公司利潤夠多,。麥肯錫合伙人蘇珊·隆德建議,，要判斷某家公司的負債是否可控，就要看它的利息覆蓋率,，或者說收入除以利息支出的商是否至少達到1.5。隆德估算,，5%-6%的美國公司無法滿足這項要求,，在新興市場，不達標(biāo)的公司則多達25%。

第二個數(shù)字令人不安,，原因是中國等新興市場的公司特別依賴銀行債務(wù),，也就是貸款。這類債務(wù)并不透明——投資者要弄清楚公司借了多少錢并非易事,，而且銀行債務(wù)更有可能采用“可變利率”,，那就意味著如果市場中的利率出現(xiàn)較大范圍的上升，源于銀行貸款的利息支出就會增多,。

獨立投資管理公司Brown Advisory固定收益和投資經(jīng)理湯姆·格拉夫建議,，要想在利率突然上升時降低公司債務(wù)對自己的影響，就要避開債券ETF,，原因是投資者因為利率上漲而爭相拋售時,，ETF的價格可能出現(xiàn)非常劇烈的震蕩（可以考慮開放式共同基金或直接購買債券）。同時,，在債券和股票市場都要尋找沒有資產(chǎn)負債問題的公司——如果一家公司債臺高筑,，最好現(xiàn)在就轉(zhuǎn)身離開?！狤rik Sherman

Corporate Debt

How much borrowing is too much?

Even in good times, servicing the interest on a hefty debt load can hurt a company’s profitability. In the face of a slowing economy or rising interest rates, you get a double or triple whammy. All of which makes it sobering to realize that global business debt now exceeds $66 trillion, up from $29 trillion before the financial crisis, according to consultancy McKinsey.

Total U.S. corporate debt remains near its all-time high of 73.5% of GDP, at about $15 trillion. Corporate bond debt hit $9.2 trillion at 2018’s close, according to securities industry estimates. And although interest rates have been low, much corporate debt represents higher-risk, more-expensive borrowing. At the end of February, more than 20% of U.S. corporate debt was rated in riskier junk categories, according to Fitch Ratings, and 46.7% was classified BBB, one step above junk.

Some industries are swimming in more debt than others. Patrick Finnegan, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, identifies health care, pharma, food and beverage, and energy among the sectors that have built up heavy leverage, with much of it going to fund mergers and acquisitions. Leverage isn’t inherently bad, of course, if a company’s earnings are strong enough. To figure out whether a given company’s debt load is manageable, McKinsey partner Susan Lund recommends checking whether its interest coverage ratio—revenue divided by interest payments—is at least 1.5. Lund estimates that 5% to 6% of U.S. companies fail to clear that bar, while as many as 25% of companies in emerging markets fall short.

That latter figure is troubling because businesses in emerging markets, including China, are particularly dependent on bank debt—that is, loans. This debt is largely opaque—it’s not easy for investors to tell how much companies have borrowed. And bank debt is more likely to be “variable rate,” meaning that interest payments on the loans go up if rates rise more broadly in the market.

To reduce exposure to corporate debt if rates spike, Tom Graff, head of fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory, suggests steering clear of bond ETFs, whose prices could get very volatile if investors stampede out when interest rates rise. (Try open-end mutual funds or direct bond buying instead.) And in both the bond and stock markets, look for clean balance sheets: If a company has a heavy debt load, now’s a good time to walk on by. —Erik Sherman