在無(wú)數(shù)次特朗普深夜推文的咆哮中，在史上最高的股價(jià)中,，在比特幣的一路狂飆中,，2017年就這樣結(jié)束了。

進(jìn)入2018年,，資產(chǎn)價(jià)值的穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)和波動(dòng)性的衰減似乎已經(jīng)成了“新常態(tài)”,，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)保持穩(wěn)健，各個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別都彌漫著樂(lè)觀情緒,。但現(xiàn)在還不是我們驕傲自滿的時(shí)候,。

我們必須看到，隨著一些政策行將就木,，一些熱門交易無(wú)疾而終,，2018年將是各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)匯聚的一年，是你必須始終保持警惕的一年,。以下就是2018年全球市場(chǎng)上最重要的一些問(wèn)題,，這些問(wèn)題或許令你喜憂參半,，不過(guò)卻不失為了解新的一年全球市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)的一個(gè)好的切入點(diǎn)。

債務(wù)投資趨冷

誠(chéng)然,，一部分人的垃圾債大爆發(fā)之說(shuō)已經(jīng)被證明是杞人憂天,，高收益?zhèn)屯顿Y級(jí)債券預(yù)計(jì)今年都會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)回報(bào)。然而在債券領(lǐng)域,，投資者2018年面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也不少,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前正在縮表，歐洲央行放緩了購(gòu)債計(jì)劃,，有預(yù)測(cè)顯示,，今年的通脹率終于會(huì)有所上升。

據(jù)美銀美林12月發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,，債權(quán)投資者普遍認(rèn)為,，泡沫是該資產(chǎn)類別面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，緊隨其后的是高通脹和高債息,。市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)金流情況就反應(yīng)了投資者的這種不安心理,。據(jù)彭博社數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年12月,，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了近14個(gè)月以來(lái)投資者首次從企業(yè)債交易所基金中大規(guī)模抽資的情況,。

商業(yè)周期老化

根據(jù)美國(guó)全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局和彭博情報(bào)的數(shù)據(jù)，如果美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2018年上半年能夠繼續(xù)保持當(dāng)前增速,，則美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將基本達(dá)到現(xiàn)代史上第二長(zhǎng)的發(fā)展周期,。

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)健復(fù)蘇，有助于促進(jìn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,，激發(fā)各個(gè)市場(chǎng)的樂(lè)觀情緒,。花旗銀行的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體驚喜指數(shù)目前已逼近2010年以來(lái)的最高水平,，不少單項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)還超過(guò)了分析師的預(yù)期,。

2018年，面臨金融過(guò)熱和企業(yè)增資增債等種種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，投資者必須謹(jǐn)慎評(píng)估美國(guó)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期還能維持多久,。

選舉風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取謹(jǐn)慎貨幣政策和弱勢(shì)美元等因素刺激下,，2017年,，新興市場(chǎng)貨幣及股票迎來(lái)了8年來(lái)的最高收益。不過(guò)這種短暫繁榮或許不會(huì)持續(xù)太久,，尤其是據(jù)華爾街預(yù)測(cè),，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貨幣政策或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)近十年來(lái)的最大緊縮幅度。

2018年也是很多國(guó)家的大選年,。彭博-巴克萊發(fā)展中國(guó)家本地債券指數(shù)中的半數(shù)以上國(guó)家今年都將迎來(lái)大選,。雖然像俄羅斯等國(guó)的選舉結(jié)果是不難預(yù)測(cè)的,，但在巴西和墨西哥等國(guó)家，目前的選情卻相當(dāng)膠著,。

歐元升值

2017年,，歐元兌美元匯率創(chuàng)下了14年來(lái)的最佳水平。2018年,，歐元相對(duì)美元或?qū)⒗^續(xù)升值,。到今年年底，歐元兌美元匯率升值到1:1.229的概率大約是三分之二,，升值到1:1.256的概率也在五成,。

利率掉期“正常化”

后經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)代美國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)催生出的一種怪象或?qū)⒂诮衲杲K結(jié),。今年,，美國(guó)的利率掉期（即企業(yè)支付一部分費(fèi)用，將固定利率改換為浮動(dòng)利率）有望自2014年來(lái)首次超過(guò)所有期限的美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率,。

有市場(chǎng)策略師預(yù)測(cè),，共和黨政府打算廢除后經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)代部分監(jiān)管負(fù)擔(dān)的計(jì)劃，有望使持有美國(guó)國(guó)債變得更有吸引力,，進(jìn)而會(huì)推動(dòng)債息再次低于利率掉期,。這一變動(dòng)的意義是相當(dāng)重大的，因?yàn)楹芏嘁越栀J資金采購(gòu)的債務(wù)工具都是以利率掉期為基準(zhǔn)的,，如許多房貸和車貸證券等,。

波動(dòng)性回歸

2017年，波瀾不驚的市場(chǎng)令很多投資者都深感意外,。但2018年,，很多投資者將發(fā)現(xiàn)，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)將再次成為生活的常態(tài),。

阿耳特彌斯資本公司的克里斯托弗·科爾去年10月指出，市場(chǎng)上有超過(guò)2萬(wàn)億美元的投資資本是依賴市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定來(lái)生錢的,。如果市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性再次加強(qiáng),，全球股票和債券市場(chǎng)或許都會(huì)面臨巨大的損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的新面孔

杰羅米·鮑威爾將不會(huì)是今年美國(guó)央行唯一的新面孔,。隨著副主席珍妮特·耶倫的任期于2月結(jié)束,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)紐約銀行負(fù)責(zé)人于年中退休，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的“三巨頭”（主席,、副主席和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)紐約銀行總裁）都將在年內(nèi)迎來(lái)?yè)Q血,。

今年，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的這幾位新東家必須要在勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)收緊,、經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)與消費(fèi)價(jià)格放緩之間進(jìn)行權(quán)衡,。如果出現(xiàn)通脹飆升的局面,，他們將如何應(yīng)對(duì)？如果美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)頑固地保持弱通脹,，他們又會(huì)采取哪些手段,？

收益曲線

長(zhǎng)短期國(guó)債之間的息差收窄仍是華爾街關(guān)注的一個(gè)問(wèn)題。完全趨平或反轉(zhuǎn)的收益曲線有可能引發(fā)債券交易動(dòng)蕩,，對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的緊縮政策形成挑戰(zhàn),，并引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

彭博社在12月初訪問(wèn)了11名分析師,，其中有6人表示,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的收益曲線在未來(lái)24個(gè)月內(nèi)至少會(huì)出現(xiàn)一次短暫的反轉(zhuǎn)，更有4人表示,，這種情況在2018年就會(huì)發(fā)生,。

別忘了中國(guó)

2017年，全球市場(chǎng)最引人注目的兩大動(dòng)向,，一是美國(guó)股市的飆升,，二是中國(guó)政府債券的下跌。盡管標(biāo)普500的估值還在被人反復(fù)分析,，但作為全球最大的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，中國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)的展望卻令人相當(dāng)難以索解。

渣打銀行中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究負(fù)責(zé)人劉潔（Becky Liu）指出,，隨著中國(guó)央行采取緊縮性的貨幣政策,，以及政府進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管，2018年上半年,，中國(guó)債券仍將承受較大壓力,。不過(guò)到了下半年，債息的提高或許將吸引國(guó)內(nèi)外投資者,。

數(shù)字貨幣狂潮

比特幣的火箭式升值何時(shí)會(huì)停止,？答案取決于你問(wèn)的是誰(shuí)。對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理邁克爾·諾沃格拉茨認(rèn)為,，到第一季度結(jié)束時(shí),，比特幣或?qū)⑸抵?0000美元?？礉q比特幣的人表示,，近期比特幣期權(quán)的建立將進(jìn)一步吸引更多人持有比特幣，因?yàn)榻鹑诮灰籽苌吠褪峭ㄍ鵈TF基金和其他流動(dòng)性工具的第一步,。

不過(guò)懷疑論者表示,，不能排除監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)比特幣“下手”的可能性。比如倫敦的ADM國(guó)際投資者服務(wù)公司的全球策略師馬克·奧斯特沃德表示,，如果政府部門開始實(shí)施反洗錢法,，很多數(shù)字加密貨幣的發(fā)展或?qū)⒈痪痛舜蜃?。（?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者:樸成奎

And just like that, the year in which we learned to live with late night Twitter rants from a U.S. president, record-high stock prices and the bitcoin bubble comes to a close.

As we enter 2018, steadily rising assets and diminishing volatility have become the norm, global growth remains strong, and optimism prevails across asset classes. Yet now isn’t the time for complacency.

Between politics and popular trades losing luster, there are boundless risks to keep you on your toes for the next 12 months. Here are some of the most important market themes — both reassuring and unsettling — to get you started.

Cooling Credit Rally

Sure, cries of a junk bond Armageddon have proved premature, with both high-yield and investment-grade bonds handing investors returns for the year, but plenty of risks threaten the upside in 2018. The Federal Reserve is unwinding its balance sheet, the European Central Bank is slowing purchases and forecasts show inflation may finally rise.

Credit investors polled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch for a survey published in December named a bubble as the biggest risk to the asset class, followed by higher inflation and rising yields. Flows reflect some of that unease. Investors pulled money out of exchange-traded funds that track corporate credit for the first time in 14 months in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Ageing Business Cycle

If the U.S. economy can keep chugging along through the first quarter of 2018, it will match the second-longest expansionary period in modern history, according to data compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research and Bloomberg Intelligence.

That’s helping to lift global economies, spurring optimism across markets. The Citigroup economic surprise index of major economies hovers just under its highest level since 2010 after a slew of data surpassed analyst expectations.

In the year ahead, investors will have to assess the sustainability of the cycle amid risks of financial overheating and corporate America’s levered balance sheets.

Mind the Elections

Rising global growth, the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary tightening and a weaker dollar helped emerging-market currencies and stocks post their biggest returns in eight years in 2017. But it might not take much to knock that equilibrium, especially with Wall Street forecasting the biggest tightening of developed-world monetary policy in a decade.

Investors will also have to maneuver around elections in countries that make up more than 50 percent of a Bloomberg Barclays developing-nation local bond index. While votes in countries like Russia are predictable, tight contests are on the cards for fellow market heavyweights like Brazil and Mexico.

Euro Rally Lives

As the euro heads toward its best annual run against the dollar in 14 years, options markets that price probabilities on the world’s most traded currency pair point to the rally continuing in 2018. There’s a two-thirds probability that it appreciates as high as $1.229 by year end, while the odds that it rises to $1.256 are even.

‘Normal’ Swaps

One of the stranger distortions created by post-crisis regulation may be poised to end. Swap rates, what companies pay to exchange their fixed interest payments for floating ones, are on track to rise back above Treasury yields across all maturities for the first time since 2014.

Strategists predict Republicans’ plans to roll back post-crisis regulatory burdens will make holding Treasuries more attractive, thus pushing yields below swap rates again. The shift matters because swap rates serve as a benchmark for a variety of debt instruments purchased with borrowed funds, including mortgage-backed and auto-loan securities.

Volatility Return

In 2017, investors were caught off guard by the near-complete absence of volatility. In 2018 they could get a wakeup call from price fluctuations roaring back to life.

Over $2 trillion in strategies are effectively reliant on market stability to generate returns, according to October estimates from Artemis Capital’s Christopher Cole. That raises the risk of outsize losses across stock and bond markets around the world if volatility finally returns.

Fed Fresh Faces

Jerome Powell won’t be the only new kid in class at the U.S. central bank next year. The “Big Three” (chair, vice chair and New York Fed president) will be completely different after Janet Yellen’s stint in charge ends in February and the head of the New York Fed retires in the middle of the year.

They’ll have to weigh a tight labor market and sound economic data against muted consumer prices. How will they react if inflation roars back to life? And what if it remains stubbornly weak?

Yield Curve

The narrowing spread between short- and long-dated Treasuries continues to grab Wall Street’s attention. A completely flat — or inverted — curve has the potential to roil bond trades, challenge the Fed’s tightening path, and raises the risk of a downturn in the business cycle.

Six of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in early December said the Treasury yield curve will invert at least briefly within the next 24 months, with four projecting it in 2018.

Don’t Forget China

Two of the more remarkable moves in 2017 were soaring U.S. stocks and tumbling Chinese government bonds, according to a global analysis of historical price patterns that veer from the norm, known as standard deviations. While the S&P 500’s valuation is endlessly analyzed, the outlook for the world’s largest emerging debt market is far less understood.

Chinese bonds will come under pressure again in the first half of 2018 as the central bank tightens monetary policy and the government toughens financial regulations, according to Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. The rise in yields will attract domestic and foreign investors in the second half, she said.

Crypto Craze

How long can bitcoin’s parabolic increase last? It depends who you ask. Hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz thinks it will go all the way to $40,000 by the end of the first quarter. Bulls say the recent creation of futures will broaden crypto ownership because derivatives are the first step toward ETFs and other more liquid instruments.

The skeptics, however, points to a possible pin-prick by regulators. Cryptocurrencies “could be stopped in their tracks” if authorities began applying anti-money laundering laws, said Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM Investor Services International in London.