猜測(cè)誰(shuí)將成為首家市值沖破萬(wàn)億美元的公司，已經(jīng)成為投資者和公司高管最喜歡的業(yè)余消遣之一,。

這個(gè)令人瞠目的13位數(shù),，足以購(gòu)買(mǎi)約13億部iPhone 7 Plus手機(jī),，而蘋(píng)果公司通常也被視為最快達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億美元市值的頭號(hào)種子選手。

但巴克萊銀行認(rèn)為,，另一家甚至還不到這個(gè)數(shù)字一半的公司才是這頂王冠的最有力競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者,。它就是零售和云服務(wù)巨頭亞馬遜公司。在過(guò)去一年中,，亞馬遜的股價(jià)飆漲了48%,，目前的股價(jià)超過(guò)887美元，創(chuàng)歷史新高,。

在上周向客戶(hù)發(fā)布的一份研究報(bào)告中,，巴克萊銀行分析師羅斯·桑德勒領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)寫(xiě)道，“在我們看來(lái),，這是遲早的事情?！彼麄冋J(rèn)為,，亞馬遜將成為第一家達(dá)到這個(gè)驚人市值的公司。

上周五早上,，亞馬遜股價(jià)上漲了逾1%,，有望連續(xù)第三天創(chuàng)下新高，進(jìn)而讓這家電子商務(wù)巨頭的市值達(dá)到4240億美元,。

亞馬遜去年的表現(xiàn)似乎無(wú)法令投資者不滿(mǎn),，其利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)近三倍，達(dá)到24億美元,，銷(xiāo)售額約為1360億美元,，比上年增長(zhǎng)了27%。

如果亞馬遜的股價(jià)繼續(xù)保持過(guò)去12個(gè)月的上漲速度,，它的市值只需兩年多一點(diǎn)的時(shí)間就將達(dá)到驚人的1萬(wàn)億美元,。然而，要維持如此迅猛的增速絕非易事,。亞馬遜股票仍然需要在目前的基礎(chǔ)上飆漲140%,，才能達(dá)到13位數(shù)市值。市場(chǎng)很少如此穩(wěn)定,，投資者很少如此忠誠(chéng),，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也很少像這樣年復(fù)一年地缺少威脅。

這也許正是為什么巴克萊認(rèn)為亞馬遜可能成為首批市值沖破萬(wàn)億大關(guān)的上市公司之一,，但這一幕至少不會(huì)在下一個(gè)十年出現(xiàn),。到2027年，分析師預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng),，亞馬遜最終可能達(dá)到約910億美元的市值,，距離1萬(wàn)億仍然差大約10%,。

屆時(shí)，巴克萊銀行估計(jì)亞馬遜的收入將增長(zhǎng)近三倍至5940億美元,。

但鑒于其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的市值更加接近這個(gè)目標(biāo),，亞馬遜在通往1萬(wàn)億美元市值的道路上必將面臨殘酷的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。要想拔得頭籌,，亞馬遜必須得擊敗以下這幾家公司：

1.蘋(píng)果一直是備受華爾街青睞的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者,。坐擁7560億美元市值的蘋(píng)果，不僅是最大的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成分股公司,，就連沃倫·巴菲特也對(duì)這只股票贊不絕口,。他的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司購(gòu)買(mǎi)了價(jià)值數(shù)十億美元的蘋(píng)果股票。巴菲特甚至預(yù)測(cè)稱(chēng),，蘋(píng)果很可能先于伯克希爾沖破1萬(wàn)億美元大關(guān),，后者目前的市值為4120億美元。但要達(dá)到這個(gè)數(shù)字,，投資者需要推動(dòng)這只科技股再增長(zhǎng)32%,。盡管信心滿(mǎn)滿(mǎn)的投資者指出，備受期待的iPhone 8,，以及蘋(píng)果在增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域的進(jìn)展將助推該公司企及這個(gè)數(shù)字,，但慷慨的股票回購(gòu)和分紅計(jì)劃可能會(huì)減慢這一進(jìn)程，因?yàn)檫@些資金原本可以用來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)有吸引力的新產(chǎn)品,。

2. 谷歌的母公司Alphabet是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)第二大成分股,，目前的市值為5810億美元。這只股票還需要飆漲72%,，才能抵達(dá)1萬(wàn)億美元,。這意味著，Alphabet的股價(jià)需要達(dá)到1460美元,。在過(guò)去一年中,，這只股票上漲了11%。

3.微軟參與這場(chǎng)競(jìng)逐戰(zhàn)的時(shí)間遠(yuǎn)大于其他競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者,。這家42歲高齡的公司遠(yuǎn)比亞馬遜更加接近1萬(wàn)億美元市值,。微軟目前的市值為4170億美元，還需要增長(zhǎng)98%才能抵達(dá)這個(gè)目標(biāo),。

4. Facebook是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)第五大成分股公司,，目前的市值為4120億美元。要想達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億美元,，其142美元的股價(jià)還需要增長(zhǎng)143%,。但它最近的表現(xiàn)引發(fā)了市場(chǎng)傳聞：Facebook可能成為首批達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)的公司之一。在過(guò)去一年,，這只股票上漲了23%,。

5.伊隆·馬斯克的特斯拉公司是一匹橫空出世的黑馬,。它的名字也躋身市場(chǎng)傳聞的1萬(wàn)億美元市值競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者之列。

事實(shí)上,，正是馬斯克自己推動(dòng)這家電動(dòng)汽車(chē)公司加入戰(zhàn)團(tuán),。為了說(shuō)服投資者相信特斯拉收購(gòu)太陽(yáng)能公司SolarCity是精明之舉，這位以連續(xù)創(chuàng)業(yè)著稱(chēng)的特斯拉CEO聲稱(chēng),，合并后的公司終有一日將達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億美元市值,。誠(chéng)然，馬斯克是在為自己搖旗吶喊,，但過(guò)去在展望自家公司的發(fā)展軌跡時(shí),，他的預(yù)言往往非常準(zhǔn)確。但這將是一個(gè)很難實(shí)現(xiàn)的成就：特斯拉目前的市值為4500億美元,，要達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo),，其股價(jià)還需要增長(zhǎng)2122%。

假設(shè)巴克萊銀行所言不虛,，亞馬遜的市值將在2027年底達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億美元,，特斯拉的股價(jià)需要每年飆漲33%才能捷足先登。也許,，馬斯克不會(huì)贏得這場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Kevin

It has become a favorite pastime among investors and company executives to speculate: who will be the first trillion-dollar company?

That value is an eye-popping 13 figures long, and would be enough to buy about 1.3 billion of the iPhone 7 Plus, made by Apple (aapl, -0.19%), the company that's usually considered top-seeded to reach $1 trillion in market value the soonest.

But banking giant Barclays thinks another company that's not even halfway to a $1 trillion market cap is a strong contender for the crown: Amazon.com (amzn, +1.16%), the retail and now cloud giant whose stock price has shot up by 48% over the past year, and is now trading at a record high of more than $887 a share.

“It’s just a question of when, not if, in our view,” the team led by Barclays analyst Ross Sandler wrote in a note to clients this week, saying the company would be among the first to reach that valuation.

Amazon stock rose more than 1% Friday morning, on track to set a new high for the third day in a row, and giving the e-commerce company a market valuation of $424 billion.

Amazon seemed incapable of displeasing investors last year, with its profits growing nearly three-fold to $2.4 billion, on sales of about $136 billion, a 27% increase over the year prior.

If Amazon shares keep rising at the clip they have in the last 12 months, it will get to the elusive $1 trillion market cap in just a little more than two years. Yet it's an incredibly brisk pace to maintain: Amazon stock still needs to gain 140% from its current price to reach that 13-figure valuation. Markets are rarely so steady, investors so faithful, nor competitors so unthreatening year after year.

That's perhaps why Barclays thinks Amazon may become one of the first trillion-dollar publicly traded companies, but not for at least another decade. By 2027, the analysts predict that Amazon may finally reach a market cap of about $910 billion, still about 10% shy $1 trillion.

By then, Barclays estimates that Amazon's revenue will nearly triple to $594 billion.

But Amazon will have tough competition in the race to a $1 trillion valuation, considering there are other contenders whose market caps are much closer to that goal. Here's the short list of companies Amazon may have to beat:

1. Apple has been the favored contender on Wall Street. It's not only the biggest company in the S&P 500 with a $756 billion market cap, but even Warren Buffett has given the stock his approval. The investor's firm, Berkshire Hathaway (brk.a, -0.77%) has purchased billions of dollars worth of Apple's stock. Buffett even predicted Apple was likely to reach $1 trillion before Berkshire, which has a current market value of $412 billion. But to reach that figure, investors will need to push the tech stock up another 32%. While bullish investors point to the company's highly anticipated iPhone 8 release and developments in augmented reality as reasons the company will get there, Apple's generous share buyback and dividend program could slow its progress by giving away funds that could be used to develop new and attractive products instead.

2. Alphabet, the parent company of Google (googl, -0.20%), is the second largest company on the S&P 500 by market cap, having reached a $581 billion valuation. The stock would need to rise 72% to reach $1 trillion, meaning Alphabet would trade at $1,460 a share. Over the last year, the stock has risen 11%.

3. Microsoft, a 42-year-old company that has been around much longer than some of the other contestants in this race, is far closer to a $1 trillion market cap than Amazon. Microsoft (msft, +0.23%) is currently valued at $417 billion—but it will need a 98% boost to reach $1 trillion.

4. Facebook is the fifth largest company by market cap on the S&P 500, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. What Facebook (fb, -0.22%) needs to reach $1 trillion is a 143% boost to its share price of $142. But its recent performance has helped fan rumors that the company may be among the first to reach the target: The stock has risen 23% over the past year.

5. Tesla, Elon Musk's electric car company, is a dark horse whose name has also been thrust into the $1 trillion rumor mill as well.

In fact, it was Musk himself who threw it in the ring while trying to convince investors that Tesla (tsla, +0.14%) acquiring SolarCity was a good decision: The combined giant could one day reach $1 trillion, the Tesla CEO and serial entrepreneur said. Sure, Musk was tooting his own horn, but he's also been shockingly right in the past when it came to predicting his company's trajectory. But it would be a difficult feat to achieve: Tesla would need its share price to grow 2,122% from its current market cap of $45 billion.

Assuming Barclays is in the right ballpark, and Amazon reaches $1 trillion at the very end of 2027, Tesla will need to be going at the breakneck pace of about 33% annually to beat that. Perhaps Musk won't win this contest.