最大的擔(dān)憂集中在后期投資

68%的受采訪有限合伙人提到,，后期市場(chǎng)估值過(guò)高。

看待市場(chǎng)的角度各有不同,，有的人看到的是問(wèn)題,，有的人則聞到了商機(jī)。一些有限合伙人曾在私下對(duì)我說(shuō),，隨著新資金越來(lái)越難融,，未來(lái)18個(gè)月專(zhuān)注后期的風(fēng)投沒(méi)準(zhǔn)能找到營(yíng)收良好但缺錢(qián)的公司,，低價(jià)買(mǎi)入大量股權(quán)撿個(gè)大便宜。不過(guò)這并不適合實(shí)力弱的風(fēng)投,，因?yàn)樾★L(fēng)投很難談下項(xiàng)目,，即便能進(jìn)入也很難保證后續(xù)順利進(jìn)行。但毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)的是,，一定有人能賺到錢(qián),。

另一個(gè)擔(dān)憂對(duì)象是種子投資基金

我還聽(tīng)有限合伙人提到擔(dān)心種子階段投資。一種說(shuō)法是,，種子階段的基金過(guò)多而且差異化不強(qiáng),，大部分水平都差不多。另一點(diǎn)讓有限合伙人很擔(dān)心的就是,，無(wú)論形勢(shì)好壞,，一些種子基金都會(huì)出局。市場(chǎng)好時(shí),，種子基金沒(méi)錢(qián)繼續(xù)投資贏家,；市場(chǎng)不好時(shí)，如果沒(méi)能提前攢下足夠資金維護(hù)持股地位,，可能會(huì)因?yàn)樵谫Y本重組和清算中沒(méi)有優(yōu)先權(quán)被迫離場(chǎng),。

The Biggest Area of Concern is in Late-Stage Investments

68% of LPs surveyed expressed caution that that late-stage part of the market is over-valued.

But, of course, for every angle of the market that one person sees caution others spot opportunities. Some LPs have said to me privately that they wonder if later-stage VCs may have a field day in the next 18 months buying up large positions in companies with strong revenue at attractive prices given the new funding squeeze. It’s not an opportunity for the weak of stomach as these deals are hard to get done and even harder to keep on course. But there’s not doubt some will make money.

Another Area of Concern is in the Seed Investor Class

I also have heard LPs express concern about the seed stage. One narrative is that too many funds have been created and, without a strong sense of differentiation, mediocrity will rule. Another big area of concern expressed by LPs is that some seed funds may get “squeezed” in good scenarios and bad. In good scenarios they don’t have funds large enough to follow their winners and in bad markets they can be wiped out by recaps and liquidation preferences unless they save enough reserves to protect their positions.

數(shù)據(jù)本身便能證明部分擔(dān)心并非空穴來(lái)風(fēng)。89%的有限合伙人在不同程度上表達(dá)了對(duì)種子市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂,。65%的人表示,，他們會(huì)投資種子基金，但是會(huì)對(duì)投資對(duì)象精挑細(xì)選,。有23%的人對(duì)于基金的能力表示擔(dān)憂,。例如，大多數(shù)有限合伙人認(rèn)為優(yōu)秀的種子基金的回報(bào)仍然相當(dāng)不俗,，但沒(méi)法在少數(shù)幾個(gè)名聲不錯(cuò)的種子基金里投很多錢(qián),。

幾年前，業(yè)績(jī)最好的幾個(gè)種子基金通過(guò)籌集“機(jī)會(huì)基金”來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)現(xiàn)金困境,，隨著后續(xù)幾輪融資規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,，機(jī)會(huì)基金可用于投資其中最佳項(xiàng)目。當(dāng)然,，此舉引發(fā)了一系列問(wèn)題,，例如利益沖突、估值爭(zhēng)議以及早期投資者是否有資格投資后期項(xiàng)目等,。但是種子投資者和有限合伙人都認(rèn)為,，只要項(xiàng)目得到合理的管理，退出時(shí)就能有利可圖,。支持機(jī)會(huì)基金的有限合伙人占比達(dá)到了驚人的85%,，前提是在募集時(shí)注重實(shí)效和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,。

大多數(shù)有限合伙人認(rèn)為傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投受到排擠

一些較大規(guī)模的基金偶爾會(huì)提到，業(yè)內(nèi)漸有排擠傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投基金的跡象,。他們表示,，一方面，“大型風(fēng)投基金規(guī)模變得更大,，可以在各個(gè)階段競(jìng)爭(zhēng)”,，另一方面，“種子投資者的動(dòng)作比傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投更快”,。坦白地說(shuō),，我從來(lái)不相信。作為一家傳統(tǒng)的風(fēng)投公司,，目睹種子基金成長(zhǎng)是一件好事,，因?yàn)槟芄乐档膭?chuàng)業(yè)公司數(shù)量也增加了。此外,，我們跟種子基金并肩作戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)很熟練了,。

除了少數(shù)在一夜間規(guī)模暴漲的項(xiàng)目之外，我并沒(méi)有感到多少大型風(fēng)投公司加入競(jìng)爭(zhēng)帶來(lái)的壓力,。大風(fēng)投習(xí)慣于向盈利模式明確的企業(yè)投資2,000萬(wàn)美元,，才不愿意去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)投資那些盈利模式不怎么明確、僅需400-500萬(wàn)美元的項(xiàng)目,。

幸運(yùn)的是,，有限合伙人似乎也認(rèn)同這點(diǎn)。僅有17%的有限合伙人認(rèn)同傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投受到排擠,，而34%的有限合伙人傾向于投資傳統(tǒng)的A/B輪風(fēng)投基金,。當(dāng)然，50%的有限合伙人希望將投資合理地分配在各個(gè)階段：種子,、傳統(tǒng)和成長(zhǎng)階段,。

The data itself bears out some of these fears. 89% of LPs surveyed expressed some level of concern about the seed market. 65% said they will invest in seed funds but they are very discerning about which ones they’ll fund and 23% are worried about capacity. Anecdotally, most LPs believe the best seed funds still deliver superior returns to other parts of the market, but they simply can’t put enough dollars to work in the handful they truly respect.

A few years ago the best seed funds responded to the challenge of being cash strapped by raising “opportunity funds,” which can invest in their best deals as the follow-on rounds get larger. Of course this brings up a host of complications about conflicts of interest, valuations and whether early-stage investors are well-suited to invest in later-stage deals. But both seed investors and LPs alike agree that as long as these programs are managed sensibly they are useful to exist. A whopping 85% of LPs were favorable to opportunity funds as long as they were done with a pragmatic approach and with favorable economics.

Most LPs Don’t Believe That Traditional VCs are Being Squeezed

One narrative mentioned occasionally by some of the larger funds is that traditional VCs will be “squeezed.” They say that “the big guys are getting bigger and can compete for the full lifecycle of investments” on one side and “the seed investors are out-hustling traditional VC” on the other side. Frankly, I’ve never believed this argument. As a traditional VC, watching the growth of seeds funds has been a blessing because it increases the total number of startups from which we can evaluate. Also, we’ve become very adept at partnering side-by-side seed funds.

And other than a handful of deals that scale in the blink of an eye, I really haven’t felt too much pressure from bigger VCs moving downmarket into our territory. Funds that are more comfortable writing $20 million checks in proven businesses simply don’t want to also have to write checks and compete for less proven deals in need of $4-5 million.

Luckily LPs seem to agree. Only 17% bought the premise that traditional VCs are being squeezed versus 34% who prefer to focus the majority of their efforts of traditional A/B roundVC funds. And of course 50% want a good balance across all stages: seed, traditional and growth.

有限合伙人生態(tài)系統(tǒng)最大的變化可能在于不少在尋求直接投資

過(guò)去三年中，欣欣向榮的技術(shù)市場(chǎng)和資金紛紛涌入風(fēng)投領(lǐng)域也催生了一個(gè)很少有人關(guān)注現(xiàn)象——尋求“直接投資”的資金（就是資金直接進(jìn)入被投公司而不是投資該公司的基金）的激增,。

近40%的受訪有限合伙人表示,，直接投資正成為投資計(jì)劃中重要組成部分（17%的人認(rèn)為是“非常重要”的組成部分）,，另有44%的有限合伙人已經(jīng)在見(jiàn)機(jī)行事做直接投資,。甚至還有基金的基金募資金時(shí)主要推廣口號(hào)就是能提供更好的直接投資渠道。

總結(jié)

有限合伙人仍是風(fēng)投行業(yè)的堅(jiān)定支持者,，而且未來(lái)一兩年看起來(lái)會(huì)保持穩(wěn)健的投資節(jié)奏（除非市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的負(fù)面事件）,。

如果風(fēng)投找不到辦法順利退出，讓資本循環(huán)起來(lái)重新投資,，有限合伙人就會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊,。如果資金一直無(wú)法回流,，最終有限合伙人會(huì)被拖垮。我認(rèn)為,，在接下來(lái)的12-18個(gè)月中,，風(fēng)投在整體資產(chǎn)組合中比例下調(diào)將成為有限合伙人的談?wù)摻裹c(diǎn)；不過(guò),，仍然會(huì)有很多有限合伙人看好風(fēng)投,，原因跟我一樣。每一次調(diào)整之后都會(huì)出現(xiàn)持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的技術(shù)革新,，而利潤(rùn)只會(huì)滾滾流入少數(shù)贏家的腰包,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

馬克?薩斯特(@msuster)是洛杉磯風(fēng)投資本公司Upfront Ventures的合伙人。

翻譯：馮豐

審校：夏林

Perhaps the Biggest Change in the LP Ecosystem is the Number Now Seeking Direct Investments

The booming tech markets and the dollars being allocated in the venture sector has brought about one seldom talked about consequence over the past 3 years ― the sheer number of LP dollars looking for “direct investment” (or dollars going directly into portfolio companies vs. the funds themselves).

Nearly 40% of all LPs surveyed said that direct investments were becoming an important part of their program (17% said they’re very important) and a further 44% of LPs are opportunistically doing direct investments. There are even LP fund-of-funds whose main marketing message when they raise capital is that they provide better access to direct investments.

Summary

LPs remain staunch supporters of the venture capital industry and their investment pace seems likely to hold steady for the next one or two years (barring any unforeseen negative market events).

This support will eventually start to meet headwinds if our industry doesn’t find a way to drive more exits to recycle capital back into the ecosystem. Eventually LPs will become stretched without some cash distributions. I expect the LP conversations in the next 12 to 18 months to be about VC portfolios being inevitably marked down; however, many LPs are long on venture capital for the same reasons I am. Any correction will be followed by the long march of technology disruption and the profits disproportionately allocated to the winners.

Mark Suster (@msuster) is a partner with Los Angeles-based venture capital firm Upfront Ventures.