美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡的速度可能超過(guò)了華爾街和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)意識(shí)到的水平。今后的情況也許會(huì)再次讓人失望,。

本周，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特?耶倫將和公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)的同事們?cè)俅握匍_(kāi)會(huì)議,。與六周前他們開(kāi)會(huì)時(shí)相比，情況已經(jīng)有了巨大變化,。國(guó)際油價(jià)再次直線(xiàn)下墜,，部分原因是人們對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速放緩感到擔(dān)心。歐洲和美國(guó)股市投資者也因此擔(dān)驚受怕,。

不過(guò),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員一直在設(shè)法安慰投資者。他們表示,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年及以后緩慢而堅(jiān)定地提升利率的計(jì)劃沒(méi)有改變,。上周，紐約聯(lián)儲(chǔ)行長(zhǎng)威廉?達(dá)德利稱(chēng),，盡管最近的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)沒(méi)有達(dá)到預(yù)期,，但他仍認(rèn)為2016年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將“略高于長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)值”,，失業(yè)率將繼續(xù)下降,。

然而，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和整個(gè)華爾街或許都低估了近期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率回落的幅度,。

The economy could be falling apart faster than Wall Street and the Federal Reserve realize.Disappointment may be ahead, again.

Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee are meeting again this week. A lot appears to have changed since they last met six weeks ago. The price of oil has taken another nose dive, driven by in part by fears of a quickly slowing Chinese economy. And that’s spooking investors in European and American stock markets.

Nonetheless, Fed officials have tried to reassure investors that the central bank’s plan to slowly-but-surely raise rates over the course of this year and beyond hasn’t changed. Last week, New York Fed President William Dudley said that while some recent economic indicators have been softer than expected, he still expects to the economy to grow “slightly above its long-term trend” in 2016, and that the unemployment rate will continue to drop.

But the Fed, and Wall Street in general, might be underestimating the recent downturn in growth.

上圖由亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提供,。2014年,，該行推出了一種實(shí)時(shí)估算GDP增長(zhǎng)率的工具,。他們希望這個(gè)工具發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)拐點(diǎn)的速度能超過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直在使用的模型。

這個(gè)新模型顯示,，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)在2015年第四季度急劇惡化，僅增長(zhǎng)了0.7%,。從圖中的綠線(xiàn)可以看出,，這樣的增速低于一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家做出的最悲觀的預(yù)期,。

這個(gè)模型囊括了哪些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家忽略的東西呢,？首先是出口,。美國(guó)的出口一直比預(yù)期的弱。這印證了海外經(jīng)濟(jì)缺乏活力可能給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)實(shí)質(zhì)性影響的觀點(diǎn),，而且這種情況可能讓美國(guó)離衰退更近了一步。其次,，消費(fèi)品零售數(shù)據(jù)也一直不夠搶眼,。這表明消費(fèi)者同樣態(tài)度悲觀，進(jìn)而決定把低廉汽油價(jià)格給他們省下來(lái)的錢(qián)存起來(lái),，而不是揮霍一空,。

并不是所有人都認(rèn)為如果周五公布的GDP數(shù)據(jù)令人失望就意味著衰退。High Frequency Economics美國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家吉姆?奧沙利文在最近的一篇分析報(bào)告中提醒客戶(hù),，“GDP的季度波動(dòng)幅度遠(yuǎn)高于就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)”，而且企業(yè)的招聘意愿并未減弱,。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)季度同比增長(zhǎng)有時(shí)會(huì)大幅波動(dòng),，但奧沙利文指出,，近幾年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年增長(zhǎng)率一直穩(wěn)定在2%-2.5%。

盡管這樣的增速不高,，但確實(shí)足以讓失業(yè)率保持下降態(tài)勢(shì),，從而最終推動(dòng)工資上升，至少理論上是這樣。工資水平會(huì)因失業(yè)率下降而上升的預(yù)期讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)相信,，盡管全球市場(chǎng)暴跌，逐步提高利率才是正道,。

同時(shí)，就連奧沙利文也承認(rèn),，就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)和GDP數(shù)據(jù)是滯后指標(biāo),。股市總是向前看,，因此似乎可以認(rèn)為,，市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)預(yù)示著新一輪的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,。至少,，之前的幾個(gè)新年前后總能出現(xiàn)的樂(lè)觀情緒確實(shí)已經(jīng)蕩然無(wú)存。

CNBC最近對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的調(diào)查表明,，后者預(yù)計(jì)今年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)只能增長(zhǎng)2.17%。這實(shí)際上和近幾年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速相同,，但低于過(guò)去幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一直預(yù)測(cè)的約3%的年增長(zhǎng)率。換句話(huà)說(shuō),，要么是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們從此前的預(yù)期失誤中汲取了教訓(xùn),，要么我們就得為更為艱難的情況做好準(zhǔn)備,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

The above chart comes from the Atlanta Fed. Back in 2014, the regional Fed bank rolled out a tool that estimates GDP growth in real-time. The idea is that it will pick up turns in the economy faster than the models that economists have traditionally used.

And what the model is predicting is that the economy turned significantly worse in the fourth quarter, rising just 0.7%. And as you can see from the green line, that’s lower than some of the most pessimistic predictions from economists.

What is the model picking up that the economists are missing? First of all, exports. They have been weaker than expected. That gives support to the idea that the weak economic activity abroad could have a meaningful affect on the U.S. economy, possibly pulling us closer to recession. Second, retail sales numbers haven’t been impressive either. That suggest consumers are pessimistic as well, decided to pocket the savings they are getting from cheap gas, rather running out and spending.

Not everyone thinks that the likely disappointing GDP release on Friday is a sign of a coming recession. Jim O’Sullivan, Chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, reminded clients in a recent analyst note that “GDP is much more volatile than than employment from quarter to quarter,” and we’ve seen no let up yet in employers desire to hire workers. Despite sometimes wild swings in quarter-by-quarter growth, O’Sullivan points out, the U.S. economy has steadily grown in recent years at 2 to 2.5% annual rate.

While this is not spectacular growth, it’s certainly strong enough to keep the unemployment rate falling, and theoretically at least, that will eventually push up wages. This anticipation of higher wages due to lower unemployment is what has the Fed convinced that gradual rate increases is the way to go, despite turmoil in global markets.

At the same time, even O’Sullivan admits that job growth and GDP data are lagging indicators. Stock markets are forward looking, and so it’s plausible that the volatility we’re seeing is foreshadowing another recession. At the very least the optimism that has been around at the start of the past few years is certainly gone.

A recent survey of economists by CNBC showed them expecting growth of just 2.17% this year. That’s in line with what the economy has actually grown for the past few years, but it’s lower than the roughly 3% annual economists had been predicting in years past. In other words, either the economics profession is learning from its forecasting failures, or we should prepare for even bumpier roads ahead.