近日,，質(zhì)疑世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中國的隊(duì)伍又新增一員。國際權(quán)威信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪指出,，由于債務(wù)水平持續(xù)上升,，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將達(dá)到7%的增長目標(biāo)。

穆迪評(píng)價(jià)稱：“2016年,，中國政府會(huì)為追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)而持續(xù)給予支持政策,，推遲去杠桿和消除過剩產(chǎn)能。如此拖延將對(duì)中國信用產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,?！?/p>

近來各方一討論到中國經(jīng)濟(jì)，必然會(huì)提到債務(wù),，部分原因是中國2008-2009年的大規(guī)模財(cái)政刺激已結(jié)束,，信貸規(guī)模卻呈逐季度上升之勢(shì)。

以下是2002年以來中國信貸總規(guī)模圖表,，看上去就像一條崎嶇的路,，從2009年起就如同坐上過山車不斷攀升，至今升勢(shì)未止,。

China’s economy is meeting its 7% economic growth target thanks to rising debt, credit rating agency Moody’s said Wednesday as it joined the chorus of skeptics about the world’s second-largest economy.

“Policy support in the pursuit of growth targets is likely to persist in 2016, postponing deleveraging and the eradication of excess capacity,” Moody’s said. “Such a delay would be credit negative.”

Conversation about China’s economy has shifted towards debt recently, in part because the country’s massive 2008-09 fiscal stimulus is over, and yet overall credit keeps rising quarter after quarter.

A chart of overall credit since 2002 looks like a bumpy road, followed by a roller coaster rising without end starting in 2009.

中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景復(fù)雜難解，長期來看最確切的一點(diǎn)是：系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部浪費(fèi)性債務(wù)過多,，如今這些債務(wù)用于支持國有企業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目,，如若不然,，國企和房市都會(huì)走受挫。

研究機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊的分析師潘啟思2015年在報(bào)告中寫道：“中國的債務(wù)問題與資本密集型工業(yè)模式密不可分,，就像之前的日本,、韓國和臺(tái)灣一樣，中國終將陷入債務(wù)泥潭,?！?/p>

就連質(zhì)疑者都指出，如果中國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡,，并向消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型轉(zhuǎn)變,，同時(shí)降低增長率，制止信貸增長,，中國是可以避免經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰的,。可中國還是鐵了心地將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)制定得很高,，增長不力就靠提升負(fù)債來填,。

穆迪認(rèn)為：“信貸總量（官方稱之為社會(huì)融資總量，簡稱TSF）的增速繼續(xù)超過比名義GDP增速,，甚至還有加速跡象,，導(dǎo)致杠桿持續(xù)攀升?！盩SF是中國政府制定的衡量指標(biāo),，用以衡量私營企業(yè)等非國有實(shí)體的貸款，不包括中央和地方政府借款,。

TSF上升顯示信貸總規(guī)模增長速度遠(yuǎn)超GDP，這意味著中國還未解決債務(wù)問題,。北京大學(xué)金融學(xué)教授邁克爾?佩蒂斯等研究中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,，TSF不是什么神奇的數(shù)據(jù)，達(dá)到一定程度就說明債務(wù)占GDP的比重太大,。但不少人認(rèn)為,，以目前的速度發(fā)展，中國債務(wù)總有一天會(huì)達(dá)到警戒線,。債務(wù)惡化的問題拖得越久,，未來的破壞可能就越大。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

校對(duì)：夏林

China’s economic outlook is dizzying and complicated. But the clearest long-term point is this: there is too much wasteful debt in the system and now it is being used to prop up state-owned businesses and real estate projects that should otherwise falter.

“Like, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before it, China was always going to end up with a debt problem, which is hard-wired into its capital-intensive model of industrialization,” Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Joyce Poon wrote last year.

Even skeptics point out China can avoid a crash by rebalancing its economy toward consumption, bringing down the growth rate, and halting credit growth. But for now, the government is stubbornly keeping the economic growth rate high, and using debt to meet it.

“Overall credit growth (described officially as Total Social Financing) continues to grow faster than nominal GDP, and has even accelerated, leading to rising leverage,” Moody’s says. TSF is a metric invented by Beijing that captures lending to non-state entities like private companies and people, but excludes central and local government borrowing.

Its rise captures the point that overall credit is growing much faster than GDP, which means China isn’t yet fixing its debt problem. Economists studying China including Peking University professor Michael Pettis say there is no magic number at which debt is too large a percentage of GDP. But many believe China, on its current trajectory, will hit it. And the longer it lets the problem of excess debt fester, the more dramatic the fallout may be.