就在美國(guó)正要迎來感恩節(jié)后瘋狂購(gòu)物的“黑色星期五”之際，中國(guó)A股卻扎扎實(shí)實(shí)地體驗(yàn)了一次悲傷的“黑色星期五”,。

今天,，滬指重挫逾5%失守3500點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)股災(zāi)以來最大單日跌幅,，券商板塊全線暴跌,，創(chuàng)業(yè)板大跌逾6%。截至收盤,，滬指跌5.48%報(bào)3436.3點(diǎn),，成交4643億元；深成指跌6.31%報(bào)11961.7點(diǎn),，成交6785億元,。

實(shí)際上，相對(duì)A股曾經(jīng)的最高點(diǎn),，指數(shù)目前已經(jīng)回落了40%,，但這基本上說明不了中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)狀況。

沒錯(cuò),，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)確實(shí)在放緩,，因此，許多投資者就開始非常擔(dān)心,。美國(guó)投資者似乎很容易就會(huì)為此類新聞而擔(dān)驚受怕,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)9月份決定維持聯(lián)邦基金利率不變，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特?耶倫在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上就此進(jìn)行說明時(shí),，曾16次直接或間接提到中國(guó),。她擔(dān)心中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩可能引發(fā)連鎖反應(yīng)，從而拖累美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。許多悲觀主義者甚至宣稱這意味著“中國(guó)故事就此結(jié)束”,。

可以斷定，中國(guó)GDP再也不會(huì)像過去十年那樣以每年約10%的速度增長(zhǎng)了,。如今7%左右的增速,，當(dāng)然比以前慢，但我們需要正確看待這些數(shù)字,。2003年,，“金磚四國(guó)”一詞的發(fā)明者吉姆?奧尼爾及其高盛團(tuán)隊(duì)曾預(yù)計(jì)，到2015年,，中國(guó)的實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率將只有5.2%,；到2017年，這個(gè)數(shù)字將跌至5%以下,。但實(shí)際上,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速并不讓人意外,，沒有哪個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體能永遠(yuǎn)以10%的速度增長(zhǎng)?；貓?bào)率會(huì)不斷下降,，而且富裕水平越高，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速就越慢,。和奧尼爾的預(yù)期相比,，中國(guó)目前的表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)相當(dāng)好了。

十年前,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年增速超過10%,，當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)GDP約為2.5萬(wàn)億美元。這個(gè)數(shù)字每年都增長(zhǎng)2500億美元左右,，相當(dāng)于美國(guó)路易斯安那州或者菲律賓的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量,。目前，中國(guó)GDP增幅約為7%（但GDP總量超過10萬(wàn)億美元）,，這實(shí)際上等于每年增長(zhǎng)出一個(gè)賓夕法尼亞州來,。這樣的發(fā)展速度可不是“還行”所能形容的了的。

中國(guó)股市確實(shí)已從高點(diǎn)回落40%,，但這更多的是非理性泡沫破裂后的調(diào)整,，而非經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的體現(xiàn)。對(duì)A股下跌發(fā)表評(píng)論時(shí),，許多分析師都忘了它曾在一年時(shí)間里上漲150%,。就算最近大幅下滑，但目前A股仍比上年同期高50%,。而且，由于多種原因,，A股和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的聯(lián)系很微弱,。

過去20年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展。然而,，除了偶有非理性上漲或回調(diào),，A股基本不為所動(dòng)。今年股市出現(xiàn)調(diào)整未必表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重問題,。A股不會(huì)使中國(guó)GDP增速放慢,，因?yàn)楣墒性谥袊?guó)居民金融資產(chǎn)中占比還不到15%。此外,，保證金貸款還不到銀行總資產(chǎn)的2%,。

有人說，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩將在中國(guó)引發(fā)嚴(yán)重債務(wù)危機(jī),，從而造成金融領(lǐng)域混亂,，讓中國(guó)陷入衰退,。中國(guó)官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，包括企業(yè)和政府在內(nèi),，中國(guó)的總債務(wù)約為GDP的180%,。有人認(rèn)為，加上其他政府債務(wù),，中國(guó)的整體債務(wù)/GDP比例可能達(dá)到250%,。這確實(shí)很嚇人，但我們還要看看中國(guó)的資產(chǎn)情況,。據(jù)估算,，經(jīng)過30年的增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)積累的資產(chǎn)約為GDP的10倍,。地方政府融資平臺(tái)以及影子銀行體系估計(jì)約占中國(guó)GDP的25%-50%,，相關(guān)改革已經(jīng)啟動(dòng)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在下降,。居民存款接近中國(guó)GDP的一半,，資產(chǎn)規(guī)模巨大，而且資本跨境流動(dòng)水平仍然有限,，在這種情況下,，那些想借中國(guó)大崩盤來發(fā)財(cái)?shù)娜诉€得再等很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間了。

看空中國(guó)的人還會(huì)層出不窮,，但中國(guó)將再次讓他們感到失望,。和這些人的說法相反，中國(guó)故事遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束,，這個(gè)偉大的故事才剛剛翻開一個(gè)新的篇章,。

Baizhu Chen是南加州大學(xué)馬歇爾商學(xué)院教授。ImaadZuberi是風(fēng)投公司Avenue Ventures副董事長(zhǎng),。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Its stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that says little about the country’s economic growth.

China is slowing down. This has caused serious concern for many, as investors across the U.S. seem easily spooked by any news regarding the topic. Just the other week, in her press conference explaining the decision to leave the targeted federal funds rate unchanged, Fed Chief Janet Yellen invoked China 16 times, directly or indirectly. She expressed fears that China’s slowing economy could cause a ripple effect and drag down U.S. growth. Many pessimists even declared this to be the “end of China” story.

Chinese GDP is no longer growing at about 10% per year as it has in the last decade. Today, growth stands around 7%. That’s certainly slower, but we need to those figures into perspective. In 2003, Jim O’Neill, the father of “BRIC,” and his Goldman Sachs GS -0.67% team predicted that by 2015, China’s real GDP growth rate would only be 5.2%, and would drop below 5% by 2017. The slowdown of the Chinese economy was not indeed unexpected. No country can grow at 10% forever. Diminishing returns will kick in and the richer the country is, the slower the growth will be. Judging by O’Neill’s prediction, China is currently doing quite well.

Ten years ago when China was growing at over 10% a year, its GDP was about $2.5 trillion. Every year, China added around $250 billion to its economy, equivalent to adding the GDP of Louisiana, or the Philippines. With GDP growth today at about 7% (or over $10 trillion), China’s economy is essentially creating a new state the size of Pennsylvania every year. This is more than decent.

It is true that China’s stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that’s less an indication of China’s slowdown than a correction from an irrationally engineered bubble. When analysts commented on China’s stock market decline, many ignored when it rose by 150% within the last year. Even with the recent stock market turmoil, China’s stock market today is still up by 50% from last year. For many reasons, China’s equity market bears little relationship to its economic growth.

During the last 20 years when China was experiencing rapid growth, its stock market barely budged barring occasional irrational exuberance and correction. The correction of its stock market this year is not necessarily an indication of some serious problems in China’s economy. Its stock market will not drag down its GDP growth rate, given that less than 15% of Chinese household financial assets are in the stock market. What’s more, margin loans are less than 2% of total bank assets.

Some suggest that the slowdown will create a serious debt crisis in China, causing mayhem in the financial world and throw China into depression. The total debt, including corporate and government, is about 180% of GDP, according to the Chinese government statistics. Some argue that by including other governmental obligations, China’s comprehensive debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 250%. This is indeed alarming until one looks at the asset side. It is estimated that China has, after 30 years of growth, accumulated an asset about 10 times of its GDP. Reforms on the local government financing platform and the shadow banking system, which is estimated to be around 25% to 50% of GDP, are already under way. The risk is reducing. With a national savings rate close to 50% of GDP, a huge asset size and still limited international capital mobility, those who want to profit from China’s doomsday situation will have to wait for a long time.

There will be no shortage of pessimists going forward, but China will again disappoint them. Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Baizhu Chen is a professor at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. ImaadZuberi is vice chairman of Avenue Ventures.