????3. 商標(biāo)至上和擔(dān)心坐失良機(jī)的心理

????目前提升估值的第三大動(dòng)力是對(duì)最佳“商標(biāo)”的渴求,。鑒于風(fēng)投公司越來(lái)越重視品牌效應(yīng)，因此,，將自己與成功企業(yè)相關(guān)聯(lián)的意愿也更加強(qiáng)烈,。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，評(píng)判風(fēng)投基金的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)應(yīng)該是回報(bào)率,。但在較短時(shí)間內(nèi),，投資熱門公司也可以算是取得成功。

????在向最優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)提出報(bào)價(jià)時(shí),，風(fēng)投公司很可能知道自己出價(jià)偏高,。在很多情況下，它們都相信這樣的投資也許不會(huì)帶來(lái)巨額回報(bào),。但在某些情況下,，跟杰出企業(yè)掛鉤的重要性和實(shí)現(xiàn)高回報(bào)不分伯仲。目前,，由于有市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的保駕護(hù)航，此類策略不會(huì)像以前那樣產(chǎn)生許多備受關(guān)注的估值下降案例,。購(gòu)買商標(biāo)的做法可謂屢試不爽——實(shí)際上,，其效果是如此之好，以至于越來(lái)越多的風(fēng)投都想?yún)⑴c進(jìn)來(lái),，他們可不愿錯(cuò)過(guò)像阿里巴巴集團(tuán)和Uber這樣的出色企業(yè),。

????對(duì)于所有這一切，我們能得出哪些結(jié)論呢,？

????短期內(nèi),，風(fēng)投回報(bào)率有望維持在高位。但在這些回報(bào)中，有多少是賬面收益,，又有多少能真正實(shí)現(xiàn)呢,？這才是問(wèn)題所在。

????賬面收益已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),，但它們也會(huì)消失,。部分風(fēng)投已經(jīng)開始悄悄地在IPO之前拋售某些成功企業(yè)的股份。我覺得這樣的行為或許會(huì)增多,，原因是在自身價(jià)格迅速上升的情況下,，熱門私營(yíng)企業(yè)會(huì)不斷推遲IPO，因?yàn)槠涫装l(fā)價(jià)將不可避免地低于當(dāng)前估值,。

????身處這個(gè)市場(chǎng),，熱門公司的負(fù)責(zé)人應(yīng)該在恰當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)候大膽一些。在幾乎所有的科技行業(yè)當(dāng)中,，市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)先位置帶來(lái)的估值會(huì)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)應(yīng)有水平（許多情況下二者呈非線性關(guān)系）,。因此，通過(guò)大膽投資保持市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)先地位是十分合理的舉措,，但熱門公司負(fù)責(zé)人也要制定備選方案,，以便讓公司能夠依靠現(xiàn)有的資金來(lái)維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。一旦市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向,，這些經(jīng)營(yíng)者將會(huì)感到慶幸,，因?yàn)樗麄儾槐卦谳^為不利的估值環(huán)境下再次籌集資金。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者格林?所羅門是GGV Capital公司管理合伙人,。他最近投資的公司包括Zendesk,、Nimble Storage、Pandora,、Successfactors,、Isilon、Domo,、Square,、AlienVault、HashiCorp和Quinstreet,。

????本文最初刊載于他的博客,。

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????3. Logos and FOMO

????A third powerful driver of the current write-ups is the thirst for the best “l(fā)ogos.” As branding has become more important for VC firms, the desire to be associated with winning companies has intensified. In the long run, VC funds should be judged by the returns they generate. But, in the shorter run, success can be claimed by having investments in hot companies.

????The best companies are attracting bids from firms that probably know they’re overpaying. In many cases, these firms believe they may not make a huge return on these investments, but being associated with great companies can be just as important as making a good return in certain circumstances. The current market momentum has ensured that this strategy hasn’t led to many high profile write-downs as of yet; buying logos has worked well — so well, in fact, that more and more firms want to play, not risking missing out on big winners such as Alibaba and Uber.

????What can we take from all of this?

????In the short run, venture returns are looking very strong. How much of these returns, however, are paper gains versus true realizations? That’s a critical question.

????Paper gains have come but they can also go. Some firms have begun to quietly sell down some of their big winners, before IPOs. I suspect we may see even more of this activity as hot private companies see rapid price appreciation and continue to defer IPOs where prices will inevitably be lower.

????While we’re in this market, entrepreneurs running popular companies should stay aggressive where warranted. In nearly all segments of technology, market leadership bestows disproportionately large (and in many cases non-linear) valuations. So, investing aggressively to stay ahead of the competition makes good sense. But have a back-up plan to live off of current cash. If the market turns, you’ll be glad to not have to raise another round in a tougher valuation environment!

????Glenn Solomon is a Managing Partner with GGV Capital. Some of his recent investments include Zendesk, Nimble Storage, Pandora, Successfactors, Isilon, Domo, Square, AlienVault, HashiCorp and Quinstreet.

????This post originally appeared on his blog.