????第三季度,，中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)率降至7.3%,，高于許多分析師預(yù)計(jì)的7.2%，令人驚喜,。但這仍然是走出2009年全球金融危機(jī)深淵后,，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)的最慢增長(zhǎng)率。

????受此影響,，周一亞洲股市應(yīng)聲告跌,，但原因可能跟大家想的不一樣。分析師指出,，交易員拋售股票或許是因?yàn)?，盡管中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)率滑落至歷史低點(diǎn)，但仍然超過(guò)預(yù)期,，從而降低了中國(guó)政府采取大規(guī)模刺激措施的可能性,。換句話(huà)說(shuō),，新的GDP數(shù)字長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看對(duì)中國(guó)是好消息。

????香港咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊（Gavekal Dragonomics）的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳龍寫(xiě)道：“現(xiàn)在中國(guó)政府方面似乎傾向于接受經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢,，并更加注重控制金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。”

????2009年,，中國(guó)政府斥6000億元巨資應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī),，在之后的幾年，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界,、建言者一直希望中國(guó)能夠改善巨額負(fù)債和不良貸款,。但在那之后，只要?jiǎng)倓偝霈F(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)減速的苗頭,中國(guó)政府仍會(huì)通過(guò)各種刺激措施為經(jīng)濟(jì)體系注入資金,。就在今年春天,，中國(guó)政府還出臺(tái)了提振經(jīng)濟(jì)的刺激措施，包括建設(shè)保障房和修建鐵路項(xiàng)目,。而現(xiàn)在,，中國(guó)政府看來(lái)更傾向于接受降低杠桿水平和推動(dòng)改革帶來(lái)的必然后果——增長(zhǎng)放緩。

????野村證券（Nomura Securities）預(yù)估,，由于樓市長(zhǎng)期低迷,，今年中國(guó)的GDP少增長(zhǎng)了1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。同時(shí),，刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的難度比以往更大,。周二，野村經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在一份致客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中指出：“寬松政策的效力減弱,，這可能是因?yàn)榉康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)回調(diào),，許多上游行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩以及公司負(fù)債率過(guò)高給經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了巨大阻力?！?/p>

????中國(guó)政府允許經(jīng)濟(jì)增速略微下滑(今年的GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)是7.5%),，這并不很令人吃驚。今年初,，國(guó)家總理李克強(qiáng)公布了這個(gè)目標(biāo),；其他政府官員立即表示，就算沒(méi)有達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo)也不要緊,。財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)樓繼偉就曾對(duì)記者表示,，7.2%的增長(zhǎng)率應(yīng)該足以創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)并控制通貨膨脹。

????本月,，中國(guó)政府再次表示,，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)步伐放慢將是中國(guó)短期前景的一部分。作為兩大政府智囊機(jī)構(gòu)之一,，社科院對(duì)政策的影響很大,。該機(jī)構(gòu)估計(jì),，今年中國(guó)GDP將增長(zhǎng)7.3%，明年的增速只有7%,。這表明,，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放慢有助于改善中國(guó)的金融情況，可以減輕大量地方政府債務(wù)并改善刺激性項(xiàng)目回報(bào)率低的狀況,，中國(guó)政府可能會(huì)對(duì)這個(gè)結(jié)果滿(mǎn)意,。

????降低GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)后，地方政府就會(huì)有更多的空間來(lái)推行改革,，包括那些針對(duì)重污染行業(yè)的改革措施,，這些行業(yè)造成的空氣污染使中國(guó)面臨一個(gè)造價(jià)高昂又困難重重的任務(wù)。但同時(shí),，降低GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)會(huì)削弱中國(guó)在投資者眼中的吸引力,，研究機(jī)構(gòu)世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)（Conference Board）周一預(yù)測(cè)，2020-2025年中國(guó)GDP增速可能降至3.9%,，該預(yù)估比其他研究機(jī)構(gòu)的預(yù)估更加悲觀；但這也表明,，越來(lái)越多的人開(kāi)始認(rèn)為中國(guó)這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)速度會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅滑坡,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????China’s gross domestic product growth fell to 7.3% in the third quarter, a nice surprise for analysts expecting the figure to be 7.2% but still the slowest rate since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

????The news sent Asian stocks lower on Monday, but not for the reason you might expect. Analysts said traders were likely selling because the better-than-expected GDP figure, albeit low historically, dims the prospects for a large government stimulus in China. In other words, the GDP number was good news for China in the long-term.

????“Beijing now seems inclined to accept the growth slowdown, and focus more on getting financial risks under control,” wrote Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.

????Advisors and economists have been hoping for years China would mend its massive debts and bad loans after the government’s wasteful $600 billion response to the financial crisis in 2009. Instead, that initial boost was followed by a variety of stimulus measures pumping money into the system at the earliest hint of a slowdown. As late as this spring, the government unveiled spending measures to boost the economy, from low-income housing development to additional railway spending. Beijing now looks more inclined to accept lower growth as the inevitable result of trimming leverage and enacting reforms.

????In China, where a protracted housing downturn is lopping off 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth this year, according to estimates by Nomura, it’s also been more difficult than before to give a jolt to the system. “The reduced efficacy of policy easing may be related to the powerful headwinds coming from the property market correction, the overcapacity ?in many upstream industries and an over-leveraged corporate sector,” Nomura economists said in a note to clients Tuesday.

????China allowing GDP growth to slid a little—the country’s target growth rate for this year is 7.5%—shouldn’t be a big surprise. Earlier this year, when Premier Li Keqiang released the target figure, other officials almost immediately said it would be just fine if China missed it. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told reporters back then that 7.2% growth would be enough to create jobs and control inflation.

????This month China’s government again indicated that lower growth is part of China’s near-term future. One of the top two government think tanks, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which has strong influence on policy, estimated that GDP growth would hit 7.3% this year and just 7% in 2015—a signal that China may be content with lower growth if it helps shore up the country’s finances suffering from big local government debts and low-returning stimulus projects.

????Lower GDP targets allow local Chinese governments more latitude to follow through on reforms, such as those targeting heavy-polluting industries responsible for the country’s costly and embarrassing air pollution. At the same time, they take some gloss off the country in the eyes of investors: the Conference Board, a research group, said on Monday China’s GDP growth may fall to 3.9% in 2020-2025, a much more pessimistic forecast than other researchers’, but one that reflects growing thinking that growth in the world’s second largest economy is bound for big-time slowdowns.