????4月份,，林德扎甚至把風(fēng)投家馬克?安德森扯了進(jìn)來(lái)。他在Twitter上問(wèn),，如果安德森是蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）CEO,，他會(huì)收購(gòu)哪家公司？安德森接了招,，說(shuō)Twitter和Dropbox都是理想的收購(gòu)對(duì)象,。隨后，大量跟帖者都提出了自己的建議,，比如微軟（Microsoft）本該收購(gòu)云存儲(chǔ)服務(wù)商Dropbox,。對(duì)于微軟的收購(gòu)目標(biāo)，林德扎有自己的看法：“他們很可能收購(gòu)Dropbox的同行Box,。這個(gè)感受是我根據(jù)對(duì)Box公司CEO阿倫?利維Twitter留言的觀察得來(lái)的,。”

????就這樣,，傳聞不斷地出現(xiàn),。

????對(duì)此最為熟悉的莫過(guò)于德羅根。他離開(kāi)了對(duì)沖基金行業(yè),，轉(zhuǎn)而建立了一家科技初創(chuàng)公司Estimize,，市場(chǎng)觀察人士可以通過(guò)它來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)公司業(yè)績(jī)。3月份,，Estimize的網(wǎng)站Mergerize.com上線,，人們可以在這里發(fā)帖，推測(cè)今后可能出現(xiàn)的并購(gòu),。德羅根說(shuō)，這個(gè)想法來(lái)自幾只大型對(duì)沖基金,，它們希望不斷了解市場(chǎng)上流行的思路,。

????德羅根說(shuō)：“他們一直在相互聯(lián)系，但絕對(duì)不能通過(guò)正式途徑,?！彼赋?，大型對(duì)沖基金的分析師和投資者都在Mergerize.com注了冊(cè)，但使用的是昵稱,，而非真實(shí)姓名：“這就是華爾街上從眾心態(tài)如此嚴(yán)重的原因,，因?yàn)樗腥硕荚陉P(guān)注別人有什么想法，他們需要知道自己是否和市場(chǎng)共識(shí)脫節(jié)了,?！?/p>

????到目前為止，人們?cè)贛ergerize.com上的預(yù)測(cè)兌現(xiàn)了一條,。亞特蘭大地區(qū)營(yíng)銷技術(shù)和經(jīng)營(yíng)顧問(wèn)阿南德?塔克爾在3月26日預(yù)計(jì),，IBM將在3個(gè)月內(nèi)收購(gòu)設(shè)在亞特蘭大的營(yíng)銷初創(chuàng)公司Silverpop，只比正式公告早了兩周,。塔克爾說(shuō),，他一直在密切追蹤和分析這個(gè)行業(yè)的公司，包括Silverpop,。

????塔克爾發(fā)帖前一天,，亞特蘭大一家商業(yè)期刊引述未具名消息人士的話報(bào)道稱，IBM和Silverpop正在商討收購(gòu)事項(xiàng),，但這篇報(bào)道并未在整個(gè)美國(guó)引起關(guān)注,。設(shè)有“傳聞”板塊的投資新聞網(wǎng)站24/7 Wall St.指出，盡管“IBM沒(méi)有重大消息”可以披露,，但當(dāng)天IBM的股價(jià)上漲了近4%,，而且成交量幾乎翻番（塔克爾說(shuō)：“像這樣的準(zhǔn)確和不準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)一直都有，所以當(dāng)Mergerize.com出現(xiàn)時(shí),，我覺(jué)得自己應(yīng)該在那上面發(fā)帖預(yù)測(cè)一下,。”）,。

????不過(guò),，當(dāng)并購(gòu)傳聞被證偽的時(shí)候，它們往往會(huì)讓投資者步入歧途,。匿名通信軟件Secret今年背上了惡名,，原因是有人用它發(fā)布虛假并購(gòu)消息。有些投資者懷疑,，相關(guān)公司針對(duì)自己正在考慮的并購(gòu)自行制造了傳聞,，目的是獲得市場(chǎng)反饋，或者投行人士通過(guò)放出“內(nèi)部消息”來(lái)迫使相關(guān)公司完成并購(gòu),。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),，德羅根指出，某些知名公司的投資者關(guān)系部門(mén)一直在給他打電話,，內(nèi)容都和人們?cè)贛ergerize.com上預(yù)測(cè)的并購(gòu)目標(biāo)有關(guān),。

????德羅根說(shuō)：“這種電話游戲非常瘋狂,。”他羅列了一些例子：“市場(chǎng)有多少次預(yù)測(cè)擁有高價(jià)值房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)的電子產(chǎn)品零售商RadioShack將被收購(gòu),？有多少次人們預(yù)測(cè)微軟將收購(gòu)黑莓（BlackBerry）,？總是有這樣的傳聞，而希望它們變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)總是那些投行人士,。他們幾乎就像是在說(shuō)‘請(qǐng)采取行動(dòng)吧,！’”

????In April, Lindzon even dragged venture capitalist Marc Andreessen into the rumor mill, asking him in a Twitter chat, if he were CEO of Apple , which companies would he buy? Andreessen took the bait, naming Twitter and Dropbox as good candidates. Meanwhile, myriad followers responded with their own suggestions for deals, such as Microsoft acquiring Dropbox instead. The StockTwits founder, meanwhile, had his own ideas about a Microsoft target: “They will probably buy Box. Feels that way to me based on Levie tweets,” Lindzon chimed in, referring to Box CEO Aaron Levie.

????And so the rumor mill churns.

????No one knows this better than Drogen, who left the hedge fund world to found a tech startup, Estimize, which allows market watchers to predict financial results for companies. In March, Estimize launched Mergerize.com, for people to post their guesses about future M&A deals. Drogen says the idea came from several large hedge funds, who wanted to keep tabs on theories floating around the market.

????“They already call each other all the time, but in an official way they could never do that,” Drogen says, adding that major hedge fund analysts and investors are participating on Mergerize, but are using pseudonyms instead of their real names. “That’s why the Street is such a herding mentality, because everybody’s paying attention to what everybody else thinks, because they need to understand when they’re out of consensus.”

????So far, one Mergerize member’s prediction has even come true. AnandThaker, a marketing technology and operations consultant in the Atlanta area, predicted on March 26 that IBM would acquire Atlanta-based marketing startup Silverpop within three months, just two weeks before the deal was announced. Thaker says he closely follows and analyzes companies within the industry, including Silverpop.

????His post came a day after an Atlanta business journal reported on the negotiations, citing anonymous sources, but that report did not make national news. The investment news site 24/7 Wall St., which has a section entitled “Rumors,” noted that IBM rose nearly 4% that day, with roughly double its normal trading volume, despite the fact that “the company had no big news” to report. (“There are other such accurate—and inaccurate—predictions, so when Mergerize emerged, I thought I’d post one of those predictions,” Thaker says.)

????At least as often, however, M&A rumors lead investors astray when they turn out not to be true. The anonymous messaging app Secret gained notoriety this year when people used it to share false acquisition news. Some investors suspect that companies themselves plant rumors about M&A they’re considering in order to get the market’s feedback, or that investment bankers leak “intel” to pressure companies to close a deal. Drogen, for one, says he has been fielding calls from certain high-profile investor relations departments regarding takeover targets predicted on Mergerize.

????“The game of telephone that takes place with these things is crazy,” says Drogen, listing examples: “How many times has RadioShack been expected to get taken over for their real estate value? Or that Microsoft is buying BlackBerry ? That rumor is always going around and it’s always the bankers who want the deal to happen. It’s basically like, ‘Somebody please bid!’”