????暫且管這叫末日預(yù)言者大戰(zhàn)吧,。

????在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的某些角落,，全球貨幣體系崩潰或惡性通脹這樣的話(huà)題總會(huì)引發(fā)熱烈討論，而其中有一個(gè)話(huà)題尤其能引起熱議——比特幣和黃金一樣值錢(qián)嗎,？

????自1971年布雷頓森林貨幣體系崩潰,、以及隨之而來(lái)的兩位數(shù)通脹后，投資者就開(kāi)始把黃金作為對(duì)抗通脹的避險(xiǎn)首選以及對(duì)某些央行的制衡措施,。這類(lèi)央行的能耐就是,，把大肆印鈔和讓貨幣貶值作為減輕公共債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)、鼓勵(lì)出口增長(zhǎng)的手段,。但黃金除了常常會(huì)在通脹環(huán)境中價(jià)格飛漲外,，它還確實(shí)是對(duì)抗比通脹更糟的情況的一種籌碼。畢竟,，普通股,、不動(dòng)產(chǎn)或是免受通脹影響的政府債券都能讓你免受政府發(fā)行的貨幣貶值的侵蝕,。但對(duì)全球很多投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，如果出現(xiàn)比20世紀(jì)70年代式的通脹還要糟糕得多的情況,，比如戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)或經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)低迷,，黃金還是對(duì)抗這些狀況的出色保護(hù)手段。

????不過(guò),，比特幣現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)越來(lái)越接近主流了,，而且還能提供許多與黃金一樣的特質(zhì)，比如稀缺性以及不受政府影響,。那么它與黃金相比,，哪個(gè)能更好地幫助投資者抵御極端惡劣的形勢(shì)呢？

????作為保值手段：能挖掘的比特幣總量已預(yù)設(shè)為2100萬(wàn)個(gè),，而可開(kāi)采的黃金總量到底有多少則是個(gè)更為復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題,。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，黃金供應(yīng)量增幅大概是每年增長(zhǎng)1-3%,。但從短期來(lái)看,，由于新探明儲(chǔ)量的影響，金價(jià)必然會(huì)經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng),。當(dāng)然，作為一種新技術(shù)的產(chǎn)物,，比特幣肯定比黃金更容易波動(dòng),。但從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，由于2100萬(wàn)個(gè)比特幣挖完后不再有新比特幣,，我們可以預(yù)計(jì)它將最終成為一種比黃金更好的保值手段,。

????優(yōu)勢(shì)方：比特幣。

????充公風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：在發(fā)生大范圍社會(huì)動(dòng)亂或經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí),，確實(shí)存在政府沒(méi)收私人財(cái)產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。實(shí)際上，1933年和1934年間,，美國(guó)政府就宣稱(chēng)私人持有黃金非法并強(qiáng)制沒(méi)收,。一開(kāi)始是由總統(tǒng)頒布行政命令，隨后又通過(guò)國(guó)會(huì)法案執(zhí)行,。當(dāng)時(shí)持有黃金的人因?yàn)檫@種充公獲得了一定補(bǔ)償,，但這種政策的出發(fā)點(diǎn)就是要使美元對(duì)黃金貶值，因此這些人實(shí)際上并沒(méi)有獲得被充公資產(chǎn)的真正市場(chǎng)價(jià)值,。

????如果再發(fā)生類(lèi)似情況,，那到底是持有黃金還是比特幣更安全？在某種程度上,，這個(gè)問(wèn)題其實(shí)無(wú)所謂,。如果政府打算收走你的黃金或比特幣,，而你堅(jiān)決不從，那你怎么樣都是觸犯了法律,。但如果你決心要讓政府這種做法沒(méi)戲唱,，可能持有黃金比持有比特幣更管用。的確,，是有辦法來(lái)買(mǎi)比特幣讓自己的身份無(wú)法通過(guò)比特幣數(shù)據(jù)區(qū)塊鏈查到,，但比起在錢(qián)幣展上買(mǎi)點(diǎn)黃金并不向政府報(bào)告來(lái)說(shuō)，這還是要更復(fù)雜些,。

????免責(zé)聲明：不用說(shuō),，違法就是違法，這么做絕不可取,，哪怕是在最糟糕的假想情境中也是如此,。

????優(yōu)勢(shì)方：黃金。

????對(duì)沖最壞情況：如果一想到可能發(fā)生第三次世界大戰(zhàn)你就夜不能寐,，那很難想象比特幣能比黃金更讓你安心,。畢竟比特幣要靠互聯(lián)網(wǎng)才有用，如果一旦斷電或是沒(méi)法上網(wǎng),，那比特幣就會(huì)一錢(qián)不值,，哪怕你把它們存在物理介質(zhì)里也不管用。

????優(yōu)勢(shì)方：黃金,。

????便于使用：比特幣可能在那些不太理想的環(huán)境中更有用,，比如如果身處一個(gè)政府喜歡彈壓或不負(fù)責(zé)任、但仍然能夠上網(wǎng)的國(guó)家,。比如比特幣在阿根廷這樣的地方就日益流行,，這完全是因?yàn)樵搰?guó)貨幣管理混亂，經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期深陷通脹,。在這種環(huán)境中,，比特幣就比黃金更有價(jià)值，因?yàn)閷?shí)物黃金儲(chǔ)藏運(yùn)輸都很昂貴,，而花費(fèi),、存儲(chǔ)比特幣卻幾乎毫無(wú)成本。

????Call it a battle of the doomsayers.

????In some corners of the Internet -- where topics such as the collapse of the global monetary system or runaway inflation are the stuff of common, and lively, conversation -- one question in particular elicits particularly heightened emotions: is bitcoin as good as gold?

????Since the fall of the Bretton Woods monetary regime in 1971 and the double-digit inflation that followed, investors have considered gold a hedge against inflation and a check against central banks who have the capacity to resort to money printing and currency devaluation as a means of decreasing the burden of public debt and encouraging export growth. But while gold often thrives in inflationary environments, it's really a bet against something far worse than inflation. After all, run-of-the-mill stocks, real estate, or even inflation-protected government bonds can protect you against against a decline in the real value of government-issued currencies. But for many investors all over the world, gold is a great protector against much more severe events than 1970s-style inflation, like war or prolonged depression.

????Now that bitcoin has grown closer to the mainstream, though, and offers many of the same qualities that gold does -- like scarcity and freedom from the influence of government -- which is better at protecting investors against the very worst?

????As a store of value: The total number of bitcoins that can be mined has been preset at 21 million, whereas the amount of gold that can be mined is a more complicated question. Over time, the increase in the supply of gold has increased at roughly 1-3% per year, but on a short-term basis there can conceivably be a lot of volatility in the price of gold due to new discoveries. Of course, as a new technology, bitcoin is subject to much more volatility than gold. But over the long run, given the fact that no new bitcoins will be mined after the 21-millionth, we can expect it to ultimately serve as a better store of value than gold.

????Advantage: bitcoin

????Confiscatory risk: In the event of widespread social upheaval or depression, the risk that governments will confiscate private assets is quite real. In fact, in 1933 and 1934 the United States government made it illegal to privately own gold and confiscated it, first by executive order, then by Congressional decree. Gold holders were compensated for their assets, but the whole point of the exercise was to to devalue the dollar in gold terms, so those reimbursed weren't receiving the real market value for their assets.

????If something like this were to happen again, would you be safer holding gold or bitcoin? In one sense, it doesn't really matter. If the government wanted to take your gold or your bitcoins, and you resisted, you'd be a lawbreaker in any case. But if you're determined to thwart the government, it's probably a bit easier to do it with gold than with bitcoin. Sure, there are ways to buy bitcoin so that your identity is not traceable via the bitcoin blockchain, but it's more complicated than buying small amounts of gold with cash at a coin show and not reporting it to the government.

????Disclaimer: obviously, breaking the law is breaking the law and that's not advisable, even in some of these worst-case, hypothetical scenarios.

????Advantage: gold

????Hedge against the absolute worst: If the prospect of World War III is keeping you up at night, it's difficult to imagine bitcoin as a better bet than gold. After all, bitcoin relies on the Internet to be functional, and if you are somehow severed from the power grid or the online community, your bitcoins will be worthless, even if you store them in physical form.

????Advantage: gold

????Ease of Use: Bitcoin is likely more useful in less dire situations, like if you're a citizen of a country with a repressive or irresponsible government but you still have regular access to the Internet. Bitcoin has surged in popularity in places like Argentina, for instance, precisely because the currency there has been mismanaged and the Argentine economy suffers from chronic inflation. In a situation such as this, bitcoin is a better alternative than gold because owning real, physical gold is expensive to store and transport, while spending and storing bitcoin is effectively costless.