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末日博士:中國可能會(huì)推遲經(jīng)濟(jì)改革

末日博士:中國可能會(huì)推遲經(jīng)濟(jì)改革

Stephen Gandel 2014-01-21
因?yàn)闇?zhǔn)確預(yù)測全球金融危機(jī)而名滿天下的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家努里爾?魯比尼被人們稱為末日博士。他最近表示,,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)今年不會(huì)硬著陸,,但因?yàn)閾?dān)心增長前景,,中國未來幾年可能會(huì)推遲經(jīng)濟(jì)改革。

????油價(jià)大幅下跌。許多中東國家仍然依賴石油收入,。收入下降可能導(dǎo)致中東地區(qū)陷于動(dòng)蕩,,而這種局面通常會(huì)引發(fā)油價(jià)暴漲。

????魯比尼還堅(jiān)稱,,美國在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和教育領(lǐng)域的投資不足,。他認(rèn)為,未來幾年,,普通的藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人將被社會(huì)拋在后面,。因此,不平等程度可能只會(huì)變得更糟。

????但在魯比尼看來,,最大的問題或許是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ),。魯比尼表示,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正陷入一種亟需采取更多措施幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的境地,,但與此同時(shí),,它又開始創(chuàng)造出新的泡沫。魯比尼聲稱,,他發(fā)現(xiàn)一些領(lǐng)域,,特別是房地產(chǎn)市場、垃圾債券和比特幣,,正在“泡沫化”,。但在兩年或三年后,我們有可能面臨一個(gè)將導(dǎo)致另一場金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)的問題,,魯比尼說,。

????“資本將產(chǎn)生不菲的收益,熟練勞動(dòng)力的前景也不錯(cuò),,”魯比尼說,。“但藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人的境遇恐怕就沒有這么好了,?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:葉寒?????

????On energy, Roubini argues that a rising supply of oil in the U.S. and elsewhere will not bring down prices much. A number of Middle Eastern countries are still dependent on oil revenues. Lower revenues could lead to instability in the region, and that typically leads to oil price spikes.

????Roubini also maintains that the U.S. is underinvesting in infrastructure and education, arguing that the average blue collar American worker in the next few years will be left behind. As a result, inequality is only likely to get worse.

????But the biggest problem, Roubini thinks, could be the Federal Reserve. Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis.

????"Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well," says Roubini. "Blue collar workers, not as much."????

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