????進(jìn)入新的一年后,，美國(guó)股市策略分析師、分析師和評(píng)論人士都在預(yù)測(cè)2014年及以后的市場(chǎng)形勢(shì),。華爾街的口徑一如既往地一致,。大家在商業(yè)頻道以及投資銀行的“小抄”、“圖表集”和“來(lái)年股市”報(bào)告中看到的內(nèi)容無(wú)一例外地大肆唱好股市,，實(shí)在讓人感到單調(diào),。

????其實(shí)不該是現(xiàn)在這種局面，原因是看跌遠(yuǎn)比看漲有吸引力,，警示力也遠(yuǎn)勝前者,，而且得到了數(shù)據(jù)和歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)的支持。

????目前，傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為大幅上漲的利潤(rùn)將推動(dòng)股市在2014年以及隨后的許多年里高歌猛進(jìn),。這種觀點(diǎn)有悖于近年來(lái)的實(shí)際情況,，但要更堅(jiān)定地唱好股市，它必不可少,。這幾年的故事根本就不是強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的利潤(rùn),，而是穩(wěn)步上漲的股價(jià)。2011年年底以來(lái),，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）的利潤(rùn)水平僅上升了11.2%，每年漲幅約為5.5%,，表現(xiàn)極為平庸,。

????相形之下，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在此期間躥升了45%,，超過(guò)利潤(rùn)漲幅34個(gè)百分點(diǎn),。股價(jià)相對(duì)于利潤(rùn)的激增已經(jīng)讓標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的市盈率從14.5倍升至18.9倍。1928年以來(lái),，該指數(shù)的平均市盈率為16倍,。也就是說(shuō)，對(duì)股票的熱情已經(jīng)讓投資者從討價(jià)還價(jià)變得較為大手大腳,，這是前方存在危險(xiǎn)的信號(hào),。

????就算最勇敢的唱多者也不會(huì)說(shuō)股價(jià)漲幅將一直遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)盈利，因?yàn)槔麧?rùn)最終必須證明股價(jià)的合理性,。企業(yè)盈利將迅猛增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)是否合理也需要得到驗(yàn)證,。

????讓我們來(lái)檢驗(yàn)一下那些對(duì)2014年持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度的預(yù)期。整體而言,，美國(guó)股市分析師預(yù)計(jì),，2014年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的每股收益將提高9.6%。在大多數(shù)情況下,，各家投行的預(yù)期是利潤(rùn)增幅將接近10%,，市盈率將略有下降。這樣,，投資者就能在兩方面都得到高額回報(bào),。而且，得益于利潤(rùn)的快速增長(zhǎng),，股票的估值將再次回到非常有吸引力的水平,。這是典型的華爾街論調(diào)。

????舉例來(lái)說(shuō),，高盛（Goldman Sachs）預(yù)計(jì),，今后三年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的年均漲幅將稍高于7%，而利潤(rùn)的年化增長(zhǎng)率更高，將達(dá)到8%,。美銀（Bank of America）預(yù)測(cè)的2014年利潤(rùn)增速為10.2%,，而股價(jià)漲幅為8.9%。在這兩家公司對(duì)未來(lái)的預(yù)期中,，回報(bào)率都很高,，估值水平都會(huì)下降，這都得益于利潤(rùn)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),。與眾不同的是摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）,。這家投行為標(biāo)普500指數(shù)設(shè)定的2014年目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位是2075點(diǎn)，增幅為13%,，而它預(yù)計(jì)的利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)速度只有9%,。在這種情況下，市盈率會(huì)從目前水平進(jìn)一步上升,，延續(xù)2012和2013年的狂熱勢(shì)頭,。

????利潤(rùn)實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的可能性有多大呢？要注意的一個(gè)要點(diǎn)是,，企業(yè)盈利已經(jīng)處于歷史最高水平：目前,，營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)占銷售額的百分比為9.7%，是20年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn),。在這 20年里,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)一直在隨著這個(gè)數(shù)字波動(dòng)。2006和2007年形勢(shì)大好時(shí),，這個(gè)比例為9%,，而目前的營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)/銷售額之比已經(jīng)超過(guò)了這個(gè)水平。它比20年來(lái)7.1%的平均值高了2.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn),，這很了不起,。請(qǐng)記住一點(diǎn)，建立在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄利潤(rùn)之上的高市盈率（超過(guò)19倍）意味著股票實(shí)際上要比表面看起來(lái)昂貴得多,。

????As the New Year begins, America's equity strategists, analysts, and pundits are making their forecasts for 2014 and beyond. And as usual, Wall Street is speaking with one voice: The talk you hear on the business networks and in the banks' "cheat sheets," "chartbooks," and "equity year ahead" reports is so overwhelmingly, uniformly positive that it's positively boring.

????It shouldn't be, because the opposite case is far more compelling and alarming. It has both math and history on its side.

????This time, the conventional view is that a surge in profits will drive stock prices far higher in 2014, and for many years thereafter. That's something of a departure from the experience of the recent past, but it's absolutely essential to bolstering the argument for equities. In recent years, the story hasn't been robust earnings at all, but steeply rising prices. Since the end of 2011, profits for the S&P 500 (SPX) have risen just 11.2%, or around 5.5% a year, an extremely mediocre performance.

????By contrast, the index has jumped 45% in the same period, outstripping profit gains by 34 points. The explosion in prices relative to earnings has driven the S&P price-to-earnings ratio from 14.5 to 18.9. The average P/E since 1928 stands at 16, which means that investors' enthusiasm for stocks has transformed a bargain into a relative extravagance signaling danger ahead.

????Even the bravest bulls wouldn't argue prices will continue to far outpace the earnings that must eventually justify those prices. Hence the rationale that we're on the cusp of a big upswing in corporate profits.

????Let's examine the predictions that have been welcoming the New Year. Overall, America's equity analysts project that EPS for the S&P will rise 9.6% in 2014. In most cases, the individual banks forecast that earnings will grow at close to double digits, and P/Es will shrink a bit, so that investors will get both solid returns, and stocks will reestablish highly attractive levels of valuation through the elixir of fast-rising profits. It's a Wall Street classic.

????Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, sees the S&P gaining slightly more than 7% annually over the next three years, and profits growing even faster on an annualized basis, at 8%. Bank of America (BAC) forecasts 10.2% earnings growth for 2014, versus an 8.9% increase in stock prices. So both scenarios draw a future of both big returns and cheapening valuations, all courtesy of strong earnings. An exception is J.P. Morgan (JPM). The bank has a 2014 target of 2075 for the S&P, a gain of 13%, with earnings rising only 9%. In that scenario, the current P/E would get even richer in a continuation of the mania of 2012 and 2013.

????What are the odds that profits will swell at a double-digit rate? It's important to note that profits already stand at record levels: Operating profits as a percentage of sales are now 9.7%, the highest level in the 20 years S&P has been tracking that metric. That exceeds the 9% in the flush days of 2006 and 2007, and it's an extraordinary 2.6 points above the two-decade average of 7.1%. Keep in mind that a high PE (at over 19) on top of all-time record profits means that stocks are really far more expensive than they appear.