????1986年1月,，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）投資策略分析師拜倫?維恩提出了來(lái)年的十大“意外”事件?，F(xiàn)在，雖然已經(jīng)成為黑石集團(tuán)（Blackstone Group）咨詢業(yè)務(wù)副董事長(zhǎng),，他依然在堅(jiān)持進(jìn)行這樣的預(yù)測(cè),。

????維恩對(duì)“意外”事件的定義是，普通投資者認(rèn)為它們發(fā)生的可能性只有三分之一,，而他相信這些事件很有可能出現(xiàn)（也就是說(shuō),，可能性超過(guò)50%）。下面就是他列出的2014年十大“意外”事件,。

????1. 套用狄更斯的說(shuō)法,，這是最好的市場(chǎng)，也是最壞的市場(chǎng),。最壞的局面將首先出現(xiàn)——地緣政治問(wèn)題和極度樂(lè)觀情緒將讓美國(guó)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)10%以上的大幅度回調(diào),。隨后將是最好的局面，美國(guó)市場(chǎng)將創(chuàng)下新高,。到年底,，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（Standard & Poor's 500）的總回報(bào)率將達(dá)到20%。

????2. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將最終走出低谷,。增長(zhǎng)率將超過(guò)3%,，失業(yè)率將向6%滑落,。實(shí)際情況將表明,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Fed）削減資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買規(guī)模無(wú)礙大局。

????3. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)于歐洲,，日本將提高美元匯率,。歐元/美元匯率將跌至1.25以下，美元/日元匯率將達(dá)到120,。

????4. 迪克?切尼說(shuō)出現(xiàn)赤字沒(méi)有關(guān)系,。各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人中只有安倍晉三認(rèn)識(shí)到切尼是對(duì)的。安倍將繼續(xù)積極進(jìn)行財(cái)政和貨幣擴(kuò)張,，年初日經(jīng)225指數(shù)（Nikkei 225）將升至18000點(diǎn),。但銷售稅的增長(zhǎng)、人口老齡化以及勞動(dòng)力不斷減少最終將帶來(lái)不利影響,，下半年日本市場(chǎng)將暴跌（20%）,。

????5. 三中全會(huì)提出中國(guó)要向內(nèi)需型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變，同時(shí)降低對(duì)投資的依賴,，這將使2014年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率降至6%,。A股市場(chǎng)在這一年的表現(xiàn)將再次讓人感到失望。新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子會(huì)強(qiáng)調(diào),，他們的方針政策最符合中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)利益,。

????6. 實(shí)際情況將繼續(xù)表明,，新興市場(chǎng)投資變化無(wú)常。在墨西哥和韓國(guó),，強(qiáng)有力的政府和增長(zhǎng)性政策將帶動(dòng)當(dāng)?shù)毓墒写蠓蠞q,，但其他新興市場(chǎng)將無(wú)法趕上墨西哥和韓國(guó)的腳步。

????7. 盡管美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量上升,，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（West Texas Intermediate）的價(jià)格仍將超過(guò)110美元,。和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家保守并且下降的石油消費(fèi)量相比，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的需求所產(chǎn)生的影響將繼續(xù)超過(guò)前者,。

????8. 生活水平提高以及新興市場(chǎng)更多地以消費(fèi)者為導(dǎo)向?qū)⑴まD(zhuǎn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格下跌的局面,。玉米、小麥和大豆的價(jià)格將分別達(dá)到5.25美元/蒲式耳,、7.50美元/蒲式耳和16.00美元/蒲式耳,。

????9. 美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，再加上通脹水平有所提高,，將使美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率升至4.0%,。短期利率將保持在零點(diǎn)附近。中期收益率上升將給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)帶來(lái)不利影響,，但對(duì)美元來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)有利因素,。

????In January 1986, Morgan Stanley investment strategist Byron Wien published a list of 10 "surprises" for the upcoming year. He is now vice chairman of The Blackstone Group's (BX) advisory practice, but is still making predictions.

????For Wien,"surprises" are events that the average investor would only assign a one-out-of-three chance of taking place, but which he believes are "probable" (i.e., having a better than 50% likelihood of happening). What follows is his list of surprises for 2014.

????1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) approaches a 20% total return by year end.

????2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.

????3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.

????4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don't matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion, and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population, and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.

????5. China's Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.

????6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.

????7. In spite of increased U.S. production, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.

????8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.

????9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.