????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（the Federal Reserve）削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模的影響也許遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有我們預(yù)計(jì)的那么糟糕,。

????一年多以來(lái),，投資者一直在為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)著手終止經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃做著準(zhǔn)備,。周三,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最終宣布小幅削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模，那么股市到底下跌了多少呢,？

????跌幅為零,。

????相反，股指大幅上漲了近300點(diǎn),，債券市場(chǎng)則略有下跌,。這是怎么回事？

????實(shí)際情況表明,，削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模對(duì)股票和債券市場(chǎng)（甚至整體經(jīng)濟(jì)）而言并沒(méi)有我們認(rèn)為的那么重要,。

????對(duì)于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)壓縮購(gòu)債計(jì)劃，人們主要擔(dān)心它會(huì)導(dǎo)致利率上升,。但無(wú)論怎樣,，利率注定要上升。經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)利率水平就會(huì)提高?，F(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)正在改善,，所以利率也在上漲。10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率已從年初的2%左右逼近3%,。目前尚不清楚這個(gè)上漲和削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模有多大關(guān)系,。

????更重要的是，利率上升似乎并未導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩,。上個(gè)月的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再次好于預(yù)期,，目前的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)下降到7%，創(chuàng)下了五年來(lái)的新低,。由此可見(jiàn),，利率上升并沒(méi)有延緩經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。

????到目前為止,，削減購(gòu)債的幅度很小,。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)僅僅只是把購(gòu)債的規(guī)模壓縮了100億美元。它意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購(gòu)買債券的規(guī)模比我們的預(yù)期少了11%,。當(dāng)然,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)很可能進(jìn)一步減少購(gòu)債數(shù)額。但即便如此,，這對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)所持債券規(guī)模產(chǎn)生明顯影響還需要很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間,，預(yù)計(jì)這個(gè)數(shù)字本周會(huì)超過(guò)4萬(wàn)億美元。

????人們一直在探討美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)購(gòu)債計(jì)劃中最重要的是什么,？是存量,，還是流動(dòng)性,？或者說(shuō)，是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)持有的債券規(guī)模,，還是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在購(gòu)買的債券數(shù)額,？最近，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家得出結(jié)論,，流動(dòng)性比我們想象的更重要,，但二者之間的差距也許沒(méi)那么大。

????接下來(lái)讓我們看看股市的表現(xiàn),。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),，一些策略分析師一直認(rèn)為，伯南克是股市持續(xù)上漲,，或者至少上漲到目前水平的唯一原因,。如果真是這樣，那么美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布減少注資規(guī)模應(yīng)該會(huì)造成股市下跌,，而不是上漲,。

????至少，它表明股市的復(fù)蘇（乃至整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇）和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的關(guān)系并沒(méi)我們想象的那么密切,。相反,，股市上行似乎是得益于經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的好轉(zhuǎn)，所以說(shuō)到底,，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇才是關(guān)鍵因素,。與此相比，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否削減購(gòu)債規(guī)模并不是那么重要,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Lina??

????The Federal Reserve's taper may turn out to be a lot less terrible than we thought.

????For more than a year, investors have been bracing for the beginning of the end of the Fed's stimulus program. So on Wednesday when the Fed finally announced it would pull back a little, how far did stocks fall?

????They didn't.

????Instead, they rose, a lot, by nearly 300 points. Bonds were down slightly. What gives?

????The taper, it turns out, for the stock and bond market -- and perhaps even the economy altogether -- matters a lot less than we thought.

????One of the main concerns about the Fed pulling back on its bond buying program is that it would cause interest rates to rise. But that was bound to happen anyway. Interest rates tend to rise when the economy improves. And the economy has been improving. So interest rates are up. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to just under 3% from around 2% at the beginning of the year. It's not clear how much that has to do with the taper.

????Even more important, that rise in interest rates doesn't seem to be slowing the economy. Last month's jobs report was once again better than expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 7%, the lowest it has been in five years. So clearly higher interest rates are not spooking the economy.

????And the taper, at least so far, is tiny. The Fed is only reducing its bond buying program by $10 billion. That means the Fed will be buying 11% fewer bonds than we thought. Of course, the Fed is likely to pull back further. But even if they do, it will be a long time before that makes a big dent in the Fed's total bond holding, which is expected to cross $4 trillion this week.

????There has been a debate over what matters more in the Fed's bond buying program: the stock or the flow -- how much bonds the Fed has, or how much it is buying. Recently, economists have come to the conclusion that the flow matters more than we thought. But perhaps not that much more.

????And then there's stocks. Some strategists have long contended that the only reason the market has been going up, or at least going up as much as it has, is because been Ben Bernanke. If that was true, then the announcement that the Fed will be pumping a little less money into the market should have made stocks drop, not rise.

????What this says, at the very least, is that the recovery in the market, and perhaps the economy as a whole, has less to do with the Fed than we thought. Instead, it appears that the market is rising because the economy is improving, and in the end that's what matters. Compared to that, whether the Fed tapers or not just isn't nearly as important.