????讓我們進(jìn)一步回顧一下歷史,。20世紀(jì)80年代中期,，在社會(huì)主義總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦?密特朗治下，法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)做出了“正確轉(zhuǎn)向”,，采取了限制開(kāi)支,、裁減聯(lián)邦公務(wù)員并停止國(guó)有化等做法——當(dāng)時(shí)我就在法國(guó)。這些緊縮措施讓法國(guó)成為德國(guó)的強(qiáng)大對(duì)手,，而且?guī)?lái)了多年的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),。從2001年到2005年，法國(guó)再次展現(xiàn)了強(qiáng)大的潛力,，當(dāng)時(shí)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)法國(guó)的是保守派總統(tǒng)雅克?希拉克和財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)蒂埃里?布雷頓,。不論你是否相信，2005年前后的法國(guó)在大多數(shù)方面都強(qiáng)于德國(guó)——失業(yè)率較低,；債務(wù)占GDP的65%,，水平適中而且跟德國(guó)差不多；增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到2%以上,，和德國(guó)相當(dāng),。

????隨后，在尼古拉?薩科齊和弗朗索瓦?奧朗德的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下,，法國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)急轉(zhuǎn)直下,，令人吃驚。法國(guó)的失業(yè)率達(dá)到11.1%,，而德國(guó)的失業(yè)率只有6.7%,。2014年債務(wù)將占法國(guó)GDP的95%，這是個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的水平,，比德國(guó)的債務(wù)/GDP比例高15個(gè)百分點(diǎn),。2012年，法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯不前,，2013年將增長(zhǎng)0.1%,。德國(guó)2013年的增長(zhǎng)率也不高，為0.4%,，但區(qū)別在于德國(guó)工業(yè)在全球市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力很強(qiáng),，法國(guó)工業(yè)卻不是這樣。和克魯格曼教授的觀(guān)點(diǎn)正好相反,，法國(guó)的未來(lái)顯得黯淡無(wú)光,。為什么,？這就是原因。

????1998年以來(lái),，法國(guó)在全球出口市場(chǎng)上的份額從7%下降到了3%,。2004年至今，法國(guó)的出口型企業(yè)從12.4萬(wàn)個(gè)減少到了11.7萬(wàn)個(gè),；德國(guó)在這方面則實(shí)現(xiàn)了大幅增長(zhǎng),，現(xiàn)在德國(guó)出口型企業(yè)的數(shù)量已經(jīng)是法國(guó)的兩倍。

????法國(guó)的問(wèn)題在于成本,。成本問(wèn)題則來(lái)自?xún)蓚€(gè)方面：昂貴的勞動(dòng)力和陳舊的生產(chǎn)設(shè)施,。2005年以來(lái)，法國(guó)和德國(guó)的單位勞動(dòng)力成本,，或者說(shuō)汽車(chē),、計(jì)算機(jī)等制造業(yè)的工資和福利分別上升了25%和7%。法國(guó)工人的生產(chǎn)率稍低于德國(guó)工人,，但比后者掙得多,。法國(guó)工人的每小時(shí)工資和福利約為35歐元，德國(guó)工人約為34歐元,。

????需要注意的一個(gè)要點(diǎn)是,，和全世界的勞動(dòng)者相比，法國(guó)工人相當(dāng)能干,。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Flash Economics指出,，法國(guó)工人的生產(chǎn)率看起來(lái)很高的主要原因是，法國(guó)工人的工作時(shí)間是工業(yè)化國(guó)家里最短的,。經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí),，法國(guó)公司不愿意招人，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)解雇員工的成本很高,。因此,，法國(guó)公司的員工數(shù)量往往偏少。

????真正地問(wèn)題是法國(guó)企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)設(shè)施,、供應(yīng)鏈,、倉(cāng)庫(kù)和計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)都很陳舊，原因是因?yàn)槎愘x過(guò)重,，盈利不足以支撐新的資本品投資,。因此，法國(guó)的整體生產(chǎn)率,，也就是勞動(dòng)力和生產(chǎn)設(shè)備的產(chǎn)出水平自20世紀(jì)90年代末以來(lái)就沒(méi)有得到絲毫提升,。

????平價(jià)汽車(chē)和鋼材產(chǎn)品等大眾化行業(yè)在法國(guó)所占的比例很高,，成本問(wèn)題因此特別嚴(yán)重,。德國(guó)有奧迪和奔馳,，法國(guó)則出產(chǎn)標(biāo)致和雷諾。和德國(guó)善于制造的豪華轎車(chē)和機(jī)械工具相比,，過(guò)于普通的法國(guó)產(chǎn)品對(duì)價(jià)格上漲的敏感性要高得多,。就這樣，較高的成本和不斷上升的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格給法國(guó)的出口帶來(lái)了沉重打擊,。

????過(guò)去,，法國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力問(wèn)題從未帶來(lái)過(guò)災(zāi)難，因?yàn)榉▏?guó)可以一直讓法朗貶值,。而今,，歐元流通后，這條路走不通了,。解決問(wèn)題的辦法包括減輕公司稅負(fù),，降低福利帶來(lái)的成本，從而使勞動(dòng)力具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,，并將利潤(rùn)重新交還給公司,，讓它們有錢(qián)修建最先進(jìn)的工廠(chǎng)?？上?，克魯格曼教授不會(huì)認(rèn)同這樣的做法。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie??????

????Let's go back even further. In the mid-1980s, France made an economic "right turn" under Socialist President Francois Mitterrand -- I was there at the time -- into spending discipline, reductions in the federal workforce, and an end to nationalizations. The austerity program made France a formidable competitor to Germany and led to years of strong growth. In the early to mid-2000s, France demonstrated its powerful potential once again under conservative Jacques Chirac and his finance minister Thierry Breton. In the mid-2000s, France was, believe it or not, beating Germany on most metrics. Its jobless rate was lower, its debt-to-GDP was about the same at a modest 65%, and its growth rate matched its northern neighbor in the 2% range.

????What's happened since, under Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Fran?ois Hollande, is a shocking reversal of fortune. France's unemployment rate stands at 11.1%, vs. 6.7% in Germany. France's ratio of debt-to-GDP will hit 95%, a dangerous number, in 2014. That's 15 points above Germany. France grew at 0.1% in 2013 after posting 0% expansion in 2012. Germany's not growing much either at 0.4% for 2013. The difference is that Germany's industries are highly competitive on world markets, and France's are not. That's why, contrary to Krugman's arguments, France's future looks bleak.

????Since 1998, France's share of global exports has fallen from 7% to 3%. The number of companies selling goods abroad has declined from 124,000 to 117,000 since 2004, compared to a big increase in Germany, which now boasts twice as many exporters as its neighbor.

????For France, the problem is costs, and that problem divides into two categories: expensive labor and old plants. Since the mid-2000s, the cost in wages and benefits of making a car or computer, unit labor costs, have risen 25% in France and 7% in Germany. French workers are also somewhat less productive than German workers. But French workers earn more than their German counterparts, around 35 euros an hour in wages and benefits versus 34 euros for the Germans.

????It's important to note that French workers are quite productive compared to their global counterparts. The research firm Flash Economics points out that the main reason the productivity numbers look good is that French workers toil fewer hours than those of any other industrial nation. Companies are reluctant to hire workers in good times because of the high costs of laying them off in recessions. Hence, they tend to operate with lean workforces.

????The real problem is that the plants, supply chains, warehouses, and computer systems are antiquated. The reason is that overtaxed corporations lack the earnings to invest in new capital equipment. As a result, France's total productivity -- output for its use of labor and plants -- has shown no increase whatsoever since the late 1990s.

????The cost problem is especially serious because France is heavily concentrated in commoditized industries, including inexpensive cars and steel products. Germany sells Audis and Mercedes; France sells Peugeots and Renaults. Because French products are so ordinary, they're far more sensitive to higher prices than the luxury cars and machine tools that are Germany's specialty. Hence, higher costs, and rising prices, hit France's exports hard.

????In the past, France's competitiveness issue never careened into disaster because it could always devalue its currency. Today, under the euro, that option is gone. The solution is reducing taxes on business and lowering benefits costs to make labor competitive and restore the profits that would allow companies to build state-of-the-art plants. Unfortunately, that's a course of action of which Krugman wouldn't approve.