????普遍預(yù)期不該出現(xiàn)這么大的偏差。學(xué)術(shù)界有些措手不及,，沒辦法說清楚為什么這項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)這么低迷,，這么不理想。歐洲股市立即遭到賣盤打壓,，但大多數(shù)市場(chǎng)都處于困惑狀態(tài),，這種情緒一直延續(xù)到了上周五。

????那么為什么會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣的情況呢,？進(jìn)一步分析表明,，歐元區(qū)最大的成員國(guó)德國(guó)當(dāng)月工業(yè)產(chǎn)值跌幅達(dá)到了令人恐懼的2.3%。德國(guó)是歐元區(qū)規(guī)模最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，德國(guó)工業(yè)產(chǎn)值的急劇滑坡對(duì)整體數(shù)據(jù)下跌產(chǎn)生了極大影響,。看好歐元的人曾斷言,，德國(guó)將帶領(lǐng)歐洲擺脫衰退的陰影,。但情況似乎并非如此，至少目前不是這樣,。

????另一陣營(yíng)的成員相信,，真正的增長(zhǎng)將來自那些遭到重創(chuàng)的成員國(guó),，也就是所謂的歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家。但就拿愛爾蘭來說,，歐洲陷入危機(jī)后它一直被歐盟和投資者奉為轉(zhuǎn)折的曙光,，而且一直在鼓舞著后者的士氣。然而,，7月份愛爾蘭工業(yè)產(chǎn)值減少了8.7%,，令人感到震驚。葡萄牙的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值也下降了3.2%,，而第二季度時(shí)，葡萄牙的GDP增長(zhǎng)率還位居歐元區(qū)17國(guó)之首,。

????更糟糕的是,，工業(yè)產(chǎn)值數(shù)據(jù)所覆蓋的五大類工業(yè)產(chǎn)品中，跌幅最大的是資本品,。整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的資本品產(chǎn)值下降了2.2%,，表明企業(yè)對(duì)未來的看法似乎并不像投資者那么有信心，原因是企業(yè)并沒有向提高經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出所必須的設(shè)備進(jìn)行投資,。這樣的信息給看好歐元區(qū)的人帶來了特別沉重的打擊,，原因是他們認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)企業(yè)信心正在增強(qiáng)的依據(jù)正是此前不斷上揚(yáng)的采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）。

????無視這項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù),，同時(shí)繼續(xù)和其他人快樂前行很有誘惑力,，但真的這樣做就會(huì)犯錯(cuò)。出現(xiàn)這樣的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值數(shù)據(jù)并非偶然,，它們所體現(xiàn)的是一種混亂狀態(tài),，是主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)過后歐洲一直未能理順的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)脈絡(luò)。那次危機(jī)的根本原因,，也就是大量主權(quán)債務(wù)和低迷的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出到今天依然沒有改變,。實(shí)際上，主權(quán)債務(wù)水平依然高得離譜,，整個(gè)歐元區(qū)的失業(yè)率也在繼續(xù)小幅攀升,。包括法國(guó)和意大利在內(nèi)，一些歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的預(yù)算赤字仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于GDP 的3%,。也就是說,，這些債臺(tái)高筑的國(guó)家還在繼續(xù)舉債，這讓它們成了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的投資對(duì)象,。如果這些國(guó)家的政府正在設(shè)法扭轉(zhuǎn)這種趨勢(shì),，出現(xiàn)這樣的情況還可以理解，但他們并沒有這樣做,。實(shí)際上,，這兩種因素正在讓局勢(shì)不斷惡化,。

????炒作歐元區(qū)題材是件很吸引人的事。今年第二季度歐元區(qū)GDP上升了0.3%,，這是連續(xù)六個(gè)季度出現(xiàn)令人郁悶的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)之后歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)首次實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈,。但歐洲股市隨后上漲過猛，股指創(chuàng)下新高的動(dòng)力純粹是投機(jī),，與經(jīng)濟(jì)毫無關(guān)系,。

????歐洲依然重病纏身，有充足的數(shù)據(jù)可以證明這一點(diǎn),。工業(yè)產(chǎn)值下跌表明結(jié)構(gòu)性問題仍然在妨礙這片大陸擺脫困境,。歐洲也許能非常好地解決自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治問題，從而變得比以往更為強(qiáng)大——但很難相信短期內(nèi)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)這樣的局面,。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie???

????This sort of error in consensus isn't supposed to happen to such a massive degree. Academics were caught off guard and couldn't truly explain why the number was so low and so off. There was an immediate knee-jerk sell-off in European equities but the sentiment on most trading desks was that of confusion, which has carried over into Friday's trading.

????So how did this happen? A deeper look into the numbers shows that Germany, the eurozone's largest member, posted a terrible 2.3% decline for the month. Being the eurozone's largest economy, its sharp decline contributed greatly to the overall negative number. But euro boosters claim that Germany is supposedly leading the continent out of recession. This, at least at the moment, appears not to be the case.

????There is another camp that believes that the real growth will come from those countries that were beaten down, the so-called peripheral eurozone nations. But Ireland, which has been held up by the EU and investors as the inspirational turnaround story of the crisis, saw its industrial production fall a mind-blowing 8.7%. That was followed by Portugal, which experienced the strongest growth in GDP among all 17 members of the eurozone during the second quarter, posting a 3.2% decline.

????It gets worse. Of all the five categories of industrial production surveyed, the one that experienced the largest decrease was capital goods, down 2.2% across the zone. This decline shows that businesses aren't as confident in the future as investors seem to be as they aren't investing in the tools necessary to increase economic output. European bulls took this information particularly hard as they had relied on a firming of the purchasing managers index (PMI) to justify their belief that confidence among businesses in the eurozone was going up.

????It is tempting to disregard this report and continue up the happy mountain with the rest of the herd, but to do so would be a mistake. These industrial production numbers aren't a fluke, they are indicative of the confusion and the political and economic disarray that continues to haunt the continent in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis. The underlying causes of that crisis, namely, high sovereign debt and weak economic output, remain in full force today. Indeed, sovereign debt levels remain off the scale and unemployment continues to inch upward across the board. Several eurozone nations, including France and Italy, continue to run budget deficits well in excess of 3%. That means they are adding to already massive debt loads, thus making them a riskier bet. That would be understandable if their governments were doing something to reverse this trend but they aren't. Indeed, both are making things worse.

????It is tempting to bet on the eurozone. The recent 0.3% bump in GDP during the second quarter was the first such increase after six depressing quarters of negative growth. But the subsequent rally in the European markets have gone too far with new highs based solely on speculation, not economic fact.

????Europe is still very sick and there is plenty of data proving it. The decrease in industrial production shows that the continent's structural issues continue to hold it back from the brink. Europe may very well solve its economic and political problems and emerge stronger than ever – but it's hard to see that happening anytime soon.