????長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)被一直被視為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)寵兒的新興市場(chǎng)近幾周大幅下跌。資金外流拉低了印度,、印尼等地的股票,、債券和貨幣價(jià)值。已得到充分探討的巴西問(wèn)題正處于爆發(fā)階段,。多年來(lái)一直很有保障的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也出現(xiàn)了不確定性,。

????摩根士丹利投資管理（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）新興市場(chǎng)團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人魯奇爾?夏爾馬早就預(yù)見(jiàn)到了這些情況。很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間以來(lái),，高盛（Goldman Sachs）前新興市場(chǎng)策略分析師吉姆?奧尼爾的觀點(diǎn)一直壓制著夏爾馬的悲觀看法,。今年早些時(shí)候離職的奧尼爾一直堅(jiān)定地看好中國(guó)市場(chǎng)。夏爾馬則在去年初出版的著作《Breakout Nations》中指出,，中國(guó)和其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家很快就會(huì)取代西方國(guó)家而成為左右世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的力量是個(gè)偽命題,。上周三，夏爾馬在接受本刊采訪時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)了中國(guó)、巴西等市場(chǎng)的前景,。他說(shuō),，他認(rèn)為新興市場(chǎng)遭到打壓的局面不會(huì)很快結(jié)束。

不看好新興市場(chǎng)的人很少,，而你一直是其中的一員,。看到自己的可怕預(yù)言變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)讓你覺(jué)得高興嗎,？

????我知道自己態(tài)度悲觀,，但只是相對(duì)而言。2009-2010年期間,，對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的樂(lè)觀看法達(dá)到了瘋狂的程度,。當(dāng)時(shí)人們普遍認(rèn)為新興市場(chǎng)將崛起，而西方國(guó)家會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)處于滑坡?tīng)顟B(tài),。我所看到的則是基本上無(wú)人理會(huì)巴西和印度等地存在的嚴(yán)重的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題,。實(shí)際情況是有些新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家將表現(xiàn)良好，另一些則不然,。我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始意識(shí)到了這一點(diǎn),。

所以不光是因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)？

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是造成這次市場(chǎng)大跌的最直接原因,。有些國(guó)家的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目一直是逆差,，這就是說(shuō)它們依賴于海外資金，而最近這些市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)最差,。但問(wèn)題不光是流動(dòng)性,，還包括中國(guó)信貸的無(wú)節(jié)制增長(zhǎng)。它可能是經(jīng)濟(jì)史上規(guī)模最大的信貸擴(kuò)張,。不過(guò)，目前這種信貸擴(kuò)張已經(jīng)接近尾聲,。中國(guó)是新興市場(chǎng)中的巨無(wú)霸,。所以，隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放慢腳步,，所有從中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中受益的國(guó)家也將放緩,。

但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不是已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了反彈跡象嗎？

????我的看法是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速正在放慢到5%-6%的樣子,，這種趨勢(shì)大概會(huì)在明年出現(xiàn),。這不是硬著陸，但我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)還沒(méi)有體現(xiàn)出這一點(diǎn),。

巴西的問(wèn)題有多大的實(shí)際影響,？

????我看巴西、俄羅斯或南非的角度不同。今后3-5年它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將超過(guò)美國(guó),，但真正令人失望的是這些國(guó)家的人均收入大概是美國(guó)的四分之一,。巴西非常依賴大宗商品市場(chǎng)的繁榮，而且巴西政府一直在用這些意外之財(cái)來(lái)取悅公眾,，而不是把它們用在非?；镜膶用妫矝](méi)有投入到能真正持久發(fā)揮有利作用的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上?，F(xiàn)在大宗商品市場(chǎng)正在降溫,，而我卻看不到新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。

????In recent weeks, emerging markets, long seen as the darlings of the global economy, have tumbled. Cash is flowing out, pushing down the values of stocks, bonds, and currencies in India, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Brazil's problems have been well documented and are boiling over. China's long guaranteed growth is unsure.

????Ruchir Sharma, who is the head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's emerging markets team, saw it all coming. For a long time, Sharma's bearish calls were overshadowed by Goldman Sachs's Jim O'Neill, the former emerging market strategist and China perma-bull who left the bank earlier this year. But in his book, Breakout Nations, which came out early last year, Sharma said the notion that China and other developing nations would soon overtake the West as the drivers of the world economy was bogus. On Wednesday, Sharma talked to Fortune about what's next for China, Brazil, and others. The Morgan Stanley (MS) strategist says he thinks the emerging market selloff won't end anytime soon.

You have long been one of the few emerging market bears. Are you pleased that your dire predictions are coming true?

????I think I was bearish, but only relatively. The optimism around emerging markets reached crazy levels back in 2009 and 2010. There was this general view that all the emerging markets will rise, and that the West was in permanent decline. What I saw was deep structural problems in Brazil and India and elsewhere that were largely being ignored. The reality is that some emerging countries will do well, and others won't, and I think the market is starting to realize that.

So it's not just the Fed?

????That is the proximate cause of what has caused the current turmoil. And you have seen that the countries that are running a current account deficit, meaning they rely on foreign capital, have done the worst recently. But liquidity is not the only issue. We also have had this massive credit binge in China, perhaps the largest in economic history. That's coming to an end. And China is the 800-pound gorilla in the emerging markets. So as China slows, all the countries that have benefited from it will slow as well.

But aren't there signs that China is rebounding?

????My view is that China is moving to a slower growth plane, say 5%-6%, and that it will move to that trend line in the next year or so. That's not a hard landing, but I don't think the market has priced that in.

How real are Brazil's problems?

????I don't see Brazil, or Russia or South America for that matter, growing faster than the U.S. over the next three to five years. And that's really disappointing because the per-capita income in those countries is about one quarter of what it is in the U.S. Brazil relied heavily on the commodities boom, and they misspent the windfall on things that kept their citizens happy but at a very basic level, and not on infrastructure that would have provided a real, lasting benefit. Now what you have is the commodity boom abating, and I don't see where the new growth comes from.