????不過(guò),，看來(lái)金價(jià)下跌對(duì)那些最著名的黃金狂熱者幾乎甚至根本沒(méi)有影響,。國(guó)家地理頻道（National Geographic）真人秀節(jié)目《末日生存者》（Doomsday Preppers）執(zhí)行制片人艾倫?麥迪遜就說(shuō)：“一點(diǎn)兒影響也沒(méi)有，總之影響就是零,。對(duì)他們來(lái)說(shuō),，黃金的內(nèi)在價(jià)值和市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)無(wú)關(guān)。他們確實(shí)會(huì)查看（市場(chǎng)上的黃金價(jià)格）,，但大多都是在尋找買(mǎi)進(jìn)機(jī)會(huì),。”這就是黃金狂熱者和一般黃金多方的最終區(qū)別,。

????和這些黃金狂熱者關(guān)系良好的媒體和分析師都在宣揚(yáng)這種無(wú)視市場(chǎng)的做法,，兩者一直在使用的說(shuō)辭包括金價(jià)跌幅很小，是買(mǎi)入機(jī)會(huì),，是政府陰謀所致,，或者這三條理由的任意組合。貝克非常依賴(lài)政府陰謀論心態(tài),，這也成了他自己的標(biāo)志。金價(jià)暴跌后,，貝克宣稱(chēng)“情況有些不對(duì)”,，進(jìn)而又說(shuō)“這是有人串通一氣。讓金價(jià)處于下行狀態(tài),，以便中央銀行儲(chǔ)備黃金,。”有些人表示自己沒(méi)有蒙受任何損失,，他們堅(jiān)持說(shuō)“紙”黃金和“實(shí)物”黃金不同,，這是信奉末日生存理論的黃金狂熱者的一個(gè)重要特點(diǎn),。麥迪遜指出：“他們都在談實(shí)物交收，而且不投資（黃金）衍生產(chǎn)品或基金,?！弊詈笠稽c(diǎn)非常荒謬,，一些黃金狂熱者表示,，金價(jià)暴跌是通縮的預(yù)兆，挫敗了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策,，因而印證了他們的核心觀點(diǎn),，即集權(quán)式政策無(wú)法控制經(jīng)濟(jì)，而且我們所有人都應(yīng)該為狂風(fēng)暴雨的到來(lái)做好準(zhǔn)備——其思路轉(zhuǎn)換之快就像變魔術(shù)一樣,。

????這一點(diǎn)特別神奇,，不光是因?yàn)辄S金的日常價(jià)格暴跌，還因?yàn)楸敬蛩阌命S金來(lái)抵御的惡性通脹也一直沒(méi)有出現(xiàn),，甚至是在量化寬松實(shí)施了五年之后,。實(shí)際上，我們甚至都沒(méi)有看到稍高于平均水平的通脹率,。據(jù)一些分析師講,，這就是因?yàn)榱炕瘜捤蓪?duì)消費(fèi)支出的影響微乎其微。

????展望未來(lái),，主流市場(chǎng)對(duì)黃金發(fā)出的信號(hào)依然陰晴不一,。量化寬松的規(guī)模可能會(huì)下降,，只是我們還不能確定它將在短期還是中期內(nèi)出現(xiàn),。對(duì)整個(gè)市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，它就意味著黃金的抗通脹功能可能會(huì)變得更不重要,。但如果這能讓他們更多地持有黃金,，堅(jiān)信大災(zāi)難就要到來(lái)的黃金狂熱者似乎真的不在乎那幾個(gè)美元。麥迪遜指出：“對(duì)他們來(lái)說(shuō),，復(fù)蘇是暫時(shí)的,，也是難以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。他們的觀點(diǎn)是,，復(fù)蘇要以我們進(jìn)行借貸為基礎(chǔ),。”通脹仍是他們眼中的妖魔鬼怪,。茶黨成員希羅稱(chēng)：“我們發(fā)現(xiàn),，只要不是硬資產(chǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的數(shù)字化印鈔行為就會(huì)削弱其價(jià)值,。我們知道,，房地產(chǎn),、貴金屬和大宗商品的價(jià)值只會(huì)上升，而貨幣的價(jià)值將下降,?！?/p>

????這些想法和實(shí)際市場(chǎng)之間的關(guān)系很難量化。受格倫?貝克,、亞歷克斯?瓊斯和羅恩?保羅影響的人非常多,，但他們都是個(gè)人，而不是機(jī)構(gòu)投資者,。而且顯而易見(jiàn)的是,，如果他們就是左右市場(chǎng)的因素，在這些人不分青紅皂白地堅(jiān)持黃金是唯一可靠的保值手段的情況下,，美元匯率就會(huì)一直呈上升趨勢(shì),，原因是經(jīng)濟(jì)本身具有自我應(yīng)驗(yàn)性。與之相反,，正如主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所指出的,，當(dāng)前局勢(shì)表明，人們對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心正在增強(qiáng),，而且資本有希望出現(xiàn)“從實(shí)物到股票”的轉(zhuǎn)移,，從而為人們的建設(shè)性活動(dòng)提供支持。

????But it seems the decline of gold has had little or no impact on the beliefs of the most prominent extreme goldbugs. "None. Zero, zip, zilch," says Alan Madison, executive producer of National Geographic's Doomsday Preppers reality show. "Gold for them has an inherent value that is independent of market fluctuations. They do watch [the market price of gold], but mostly just for chances to purchase." Which ultimately is what separates the goldbugs from more run-of-the-mill gold bulls.

????This indifference to the market is being fed by goldbug-friendly media and analysis, which has insisted that the decline is irrelevant, a buying opportunity, the product of a government conspiracy, or some mix of the three. Relying heavily on the broader conspiracist mindset that defines him, Beck declared after the gold crash that "something doesn't smell right," further saying that "This is collusion. It is keeping the price of gold down for the sovereign central banks so they can store the gold." Some have totally dismissed the losses by insisting on the difference between "paper" gold and "real" gold, an important distinction for goldbugs of the prepper variety. "They all take physical delivery, they don't invest in [gold] derivatives or funds," says Madison. Finally and most paradoxically, some goldbugs have said that the gold crash is a harbinger of deflation, a defeat for Fed policies and therefore -- presto change-o -- a validation of their underlying thesis that centralized policy can't control the economy, and we should all prepare for Thunderdome.

????This is all particularly amazing since, not only has the daily price of gold plummeted, but the hyperinflation it is supposed to hedge against hasn't shown its face, even after five years of QE. In fact, we haven't even seen slightly above-average inflation. According to some analysts, this is simply because it has had minimal effect on consumer spending.

????Going forward, signs for gold in the mainstream market remain mixed. QE is likely headed for a taper, even if we're not yet sure whether that's in the near or middle term. This means gold's function as an inflation hedge for the broader market is likely to become less relevant. But apocalyptic goldbugs seem genuinely unconcerned with mere dollars if it makes it possible for them to hang onto more gold. According to Madison, "This recovery is temporal, elusive to them. It's based on us borrowing money, as far as they're concerned." Inflation is still the bugaboo: "The folks here recognize that the Fed's digital printing of money is reducing the value of any non-hard asset. We realize that property, precious metals, and commodities will only increase in value while currency will drop," says Tea Party member Cillo.

????It's difficult to quantify the relationship between these ideas and the real market. Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, and Ron Paul have huge combined audiences, but these are individual rather than institutional investors. And obviously, if they were market drivers in themselves, their unsubtle insistence on gold as the only decent store of value would have kept the dollar price trending upwards indefinitely as the economy itself shut down in the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. By contrast, as mainstream economists have pointed out, the current scenario reflects increasing faith in the overall economy and a hopeful shift of capital "from rocks to stocks" -- toward support for constructive human endeavors.