????上周那48小時真是驚心動魄,，一切都亂套了。

????我們正式從瀑布上方掉了下來,。我們的船現(xiàn)在還在半空,。人們掛在樹上。每個人都手忙腳亂,，想搞清楚自己他們漏掉了什么,。希望弄明白到底是怎么回事。表面看是伯南克引發(fā)了這場大震蕩,，掌握中央計劃集權(quán)的美聯(lián)儲各大佬也是重要的幫兇,。

????真實(shí)情況呢？其實(shí),，一切的一切都是在沿著理所應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)能壽E在發(fā)展,。

????如果您依賴數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行判斷，如果您依托于嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)牧炕治鲞M(jìn)行研究（但愿不是這樣）,，這是一個非常直截了當(dāng)?shù)慕Y(jié)論,。我們一直說，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長在加速（遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)領(lǐng)先于普遍的預(yù)期）,。

????下面就是事實(shí)依據(jù)：從2012年12月至2013年3月,，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)企穩(wěn)。從4月到6月,，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速加快,。6月18日，羅素2000指數(shù)（Russell 2000）創(chuàng)下歷史高點(diǎn),。上周三,，美聯(lián)儲基本上重復(fù)了這些事實(shí)，同時闡明了收緊量化寬松政策的理由,。這是市場大震蕩的導(dǎo)火索,。

????在這次恐慌性拋盤之前很長一段時間，所有這些市場的大震蕩早已潛藏在平靜的表面之下,。當(dāng)市場對什么東西不怎么信任時,，隱含波動率的遠(yuǎn)期曲線就會開始上升。當(dāng)他們真的不信任什么時,，波動率上升得更快,。這就是凸性。

????對于早已大跌的投資品種（比如黃金,、美國國債,、新興市場等等）,，隱含波動率凸性概念6個月來已顯而易見。但對于美國股市,，這個概念還比較新,。

????隨著過去3個月消費(fèi)、就業(yè)和住房增長加速,，股市預(yù)期下降雖然看起來有些奇怪,，但卻講得通。我們的美聯(lián)儲 A) 在預(yù)測方面非常糟糕,；B) 在“溝通”的時機(jī)選擇方面妥協(xié)而矛盾,。伯南克留下了這個爛攤子——現(xiàn)在我們都不得不面對它。

????我們在黃金,、美國國債和新興市場都可以看到巨量的拋售,，我們所處的可能是一個長期大趨勢的早期階段。

????What an epic 48 hours it has been. Just. Total. Chaos.

????We are officially going over the waterfall now. Boats are in midair. People are hanging on trees. Everybody is scrambling, trying to explain what they missed. Trying to make sense out of it all. Hat tip to Bernanke-sponsored bedlam with a big assist from our Central-Planning Fed Overlords.

????The reality? Everything is playing out precisely how it should have played out.

????If you're data-dependent, if you have a rigorous quantitative process backing the research (God forbid), this was a fairly straightforward call to make. U.S. growth has been accelerating as we have been saying all along (well ahead of consensus).

????Here are the facts: U.S. economic data stabilized from December 2012 through March 2013. From April to June, growth accelerated. On June 18th the Russell 2000 hit an all-time high. On Wednesday, the Fed basically repeated all of this and outlined its view on tapering. Cue market mayhem.

????All of these market dislocations were percolating underneath the surface of consensus well before this frenzy. When markets don't trust something, the forward curve of implied volatility starts to rise. When they really don't trust something, that volatility rises at a faster rate. It's called convexity.

????In terms of implied volatility in everything that was already crashing (gold, Treasuries, emerging markets, etc), that concept has been pretty straightforward for going on for six months now. For U.S. equities, it's relatively new.

????As consumption, employment, and housing growth accelerated in the last three months, stock market expectations went right squirrel. While it may seem strange, it does make sense. We have a Federal Reserve that is A) horrendous in terms of forecasting and B) compromised and conflicted in terms of timing its "communications." Bernanke made his legacy bed -- now we all have to sleep in it.

????This huge selloff we're witnessing in gold, Treasuries, and emerging markets -- we are in the early innings of what could be a long-term macro trend.