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法國(guó)成歐元危機(jī)隱形不定時(shí)炸彈

法國(guó)成歐元危機(jī)隱形不定時(shí)炸彈

Shawn Tully 2013-01-14
法國(guó)是歐元?jiǎng)?chuàng)立的主要推動(dòng)者之一,,長(zhǎng)期以來也是歐元區(qū)的第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,。但它如今面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力下降問題卻比歐元區(qū)其他任何成員國(guó)都要嚴(yán)峻。而且,,它沒有采取任何措施來改變這一點(diǎn),。一旦到達(dá)臨界點(diǎn),它的經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能出現(xiàn)閃電式的崩盤,,給歐元區(qū)帶來致命的打擊,。

????2005年以來,,法國(guó)單位勞動(dòng)力成本(比如,,生產(chǎn)一輛汽車或一根鋼梁的費(fèi)用)增長(zhǎng)了17%,相比之下德國(guó)只增長(zhǎng)了10%,,西班牙增長(zhǎng)5.8%,,愛爾蘭增長(zhǎng)2%。如今,,法國(guó)工人的每小時(shí)工資為35.3歐元,,意大利只有25.8歐元,英國(guó)和西班牙則是22歐元,。

????結(jié)果是法國(guó)制造業(yè)以及從咨詢到物流的配套服務(wù)業(yè)都大幅下滑,。企業(yè)利潤(rùn)在GDP中的比例已劇降至6.5%,僅及歐元區(qū)平均值的60%,。這是因?yàn)榉▏?guó)出口商的市場(chǎng)份額在萎縮,,那些存活下來的企業(yè)必須降低利潤(rùn)率,,給出更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的價(jià)格。因此,,它們也缺乏資金來建新工廠和投資新技術(shù),。法國(guó)的出口企業(yè)數(shù)量如今僅及德國(guó)或意大利(或許讓人吃驚)的一半。德國(guó)工業(yè)得益于其19,000臺(tái)機(jī)器人,,這一數(shù)量是法國(guó)的5倍,。過去4年,法國(guó)的研發(fā)支出也削減了50%,。

????值得注意的是奧朗德政府正在打算通過加大企業(yè)負(fù)擔(dān)來增加政府收入,。去年9月,法國(guó)宣布了新法律以限制付息抵稅和虧損結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)抵稅,,事實(shí)上加大了企業(yè)稅負(fù),。這些措施將導(dǎo)致本已微薄的企業(yè)利潤(rùn)進(jìn)一步縮水,阻礙未來的投資,。

????假如法國(guó)專長(zhǎng)生產(chǎn)利潤(rùn)豐厚的高精尖產(chǎn)品,,這樣的成本差距可能還不會(huì)那么有破壞性。誠(chéng)然,,法國(guó)在時(shí)裝,、奢侈品和制藥領(lǐng)域仍然具有相當(dāng)?shù)膶?shí)力。這些行業(yè)是法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的亮點(diǎn),,但同時(shí),,這個(gè)國(guó)家也非常依賴汽車、紡織,、鋼鐵,、電信設(shè)備和其他中低利潤(rùn)率產(chǎn)品,這些產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上對(duì)價(jià)格相當(dāng)敏感,?!胺▏?guó)在機(jī)床或高端電腦設(shè)備等高精尖產(chǎn)品方面一直都不具備強(qiáng)勁的實(shí)力,,“巴黎Flash Economics的讓-克里斯托弗·卡菲說,。“即便是在高端市場(chǎng),,很多份額也被德國(guó)搶走了,。”

????比方說,,德國(guó)專長(zhǎng)制造高品質(zhì)汽車,,奧迪(Audi)、梅斯德斯(Mercedes)和寶馬(BMW)這些品牌就算價(jià)格漲一點(diǎn),,人們也愿意掏錢購買,。相比之下,,法國(guó)制造的雷諾(Renault)和標(biāo)致(Peugeot)價(jià)格定位較低,如果不保持低價(jià),,潛在客戶就可能被福特(Ford)或菲亞特(Fiat)搶走,,因此只能滿足于一點(diǎn)微薄、甚至近乎不存在的利潤(rùn),。

????法國(guó)也沒有追隨鄰國(guó)降低勞動(dòng)力成本的步伐,,對(duì)潛在危機(jī)做出應(yīng)對(duì)。21世紀(jì)頭一個(gè)十年中期,,德國(guó)邁出了一大步:批準(zhǔn)第四階段就業(yè)改革方案——哈茨四號(hào)(Hartz IV),,降低企業(yè)社保負(fù)擔(dān)。最近,,西班牙將領(lǐng)取全額養(yǎng)老金的退休年齡從65歲上調(diào)到了67歲,,并允許在公司層面進(jìn)行工資談判,獨(dú)立于全國(guó)性的強(qiáng)制上調(diào)薪酬體系,。意大利也將在未來六年內(nèi)把女性退休年齡從60歲逐步提高到66歲,。

????但2012年5月份當(dāng)選的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯·奧朗德則采取了溫和的舉措。法國(guó)政府承諾小幅減輕企業(yè)社保負(fù)擔(dān),,但這項(xiàng)改革要到2014年才會(huì)啟動(dòng),,而且只會(huì)持續(xù)兩年。

????競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力問題直接導(dǎo)致法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)未來可能缺乏增長(zhǎng),,進(jìn)而引發(fā)財(cái)政危機(jī),。值得注意的是,上世紀(jì)90年代中期,,法國(guó)的失業(yè)率,、預(yù)算赤字和債務(wù)/GDP比率都低于德國(guó),而經(jīng)濟(jì)增速卻幾乎一致,。如今,,所有這些數(shù)據(jù)都倒了個(gè)。

????Since 2005, France's unit labor costs -- the expense of producing a single car or steel beam, for example -- has jumped 17% compared with 10% for Germany, 5.8% for Spain, and 2% for Ireland. Today, French workers earn an average of 35.3 euros per hour, compared with 25.8 in Italy, 22 in the UK and Spain.

????The result is a steep fall in French manufacturing and the services that support it, everything from consulting to logistics. Corporate profits have plunged to 6.5% of GDP, about 60% of the euro zone average. That's because French exporters are losing market share, and the ones that survive must lower margins to charge competitive prices. As a result, they lack the funds to invest in new plants and technologies. France now has half as many exporting companies as Germany and, amazingly, Italy. German industry benefits from 19,000 robots, five times the number in France. As for R&D spending, it's dropped 50% in the past four years.

????Remarkably, the Hollande government is raising revenue by heightening the burden on business. In September, France announced new laws that limit deductions for interest payments and loss carry-forwards, effectively heaping higher taxes on business. Those measures will shrink already meager profits, and crimp future investment.

????The cost-gap wouldn't be so damaging if France specialized in sophisticated, high-margin products. Indeed, the nation remains strong in fashion, luxury goods, and pharmaceuticals. But though those offerings symbolize France's economic élan, the nation is heavily dependent on autos, textile, steel, telecom equipment and other mid-to-low margin products that are extremely price sensitive on world markets. "France has never been strong in high-end, sophisticated products like machine tools or high-end computer equipment," says Jean-Christophe Caffet of Flash Economics in Paris. "And even in the high-end, it's lost a lot of market share to Germany."

????Germany, for example, specializes in fancy cars, Audis, Mercedes and BMWs that folks are willing to keep buying if prices rise a bit. By contrast, France makes cheaper Renaults and Peugeots that risk losing sales to Ford or Fiat unless manufacturers hold down prices -- or settle for puny or non-existent profits.

????Nor is France reacting to the looming crisis by following its neighbors' campaign to lower labor costs. Germany made big strides in the mid-2000s with its Hartz IV reforms that lowered the social charges on businesses. Spain recently raised the retirement age for full pensions from 65 to 67 and allows wage negotiations at the company level, a departure from the centralized system of imposing mandatory nationwide increases in pay. Italy is gradually raising the retirement age for women from 60 to 66 over the next six years.

????But Francois Hollande, elected president in May, is taking far more tepid steps. The government is pledging to modestly lower social charges on businesses, but the reforms don't start until 2014, and last just two years.

????It's the prospect of a future without growth, a direct legacy of the competitiveness problem, that could unleash a fiscal crisis. It's remarkable that in the mid-1990s, France had a lower unemployment rate than Germany, smaller deficits, less debt to GDP, and approximately the same growth rate. All of those measures have now totally reversed.

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