????福斯：前兩天早上,，我作為一些基金投資委員會(huì)的主席就遇到了資產(chǎn)配置問(wèn)題。這些基金的股票配置上限是70%,，債券下限是30%,。我們目前的配置就是30%債券，70%股票,。我得說(shuō),，如果情況沒(méi)有變化，就按上限投資股票,，按下限投資債券,。

????奧斯：華爾街如此悲觀的一個(gè)原因是我說(shuō)的標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的雙頂。沒(méi)人愿意討論這一點(diǎn),，但到我辦公室的人全都相信我們可能翻不過(guò)雙頂,。我說(shuō)的是2000年和2007年3月達(dá)到的1550點(diǎn)頂部。你知道,，如果將今天標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的估值與2000年觸頂時(shí)相比,，美國(guó)GDP規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)率為50%，全球GDP已經(jīng)翻番,。我想,，要翻過(guò)雙頂可能會(huì)有一番掙扎，但當(dāng)我們翻過(guò)去時(shí),，你會(huì)看到華爾街變得更樂(lè)觀了,。你知道,，市場(chǎng)中有10年期的標(biāo)普500指數(shù)期貨,。這是一個(gè)掉期市場(chǎng)。如果今天你出去買(mǎi)一份10年期的標(biāo)普500指數(shù)期貨,，期貨價(jià)格比當(dāng)前指數(shù)點(diǎn)位低了10%,。

????哇！

????蘇博拉瑪尼亞：我想很多人可能都被嚇壞了,，如果十年前你買(mǎi)了股票,，可能根本就沒(méi)賺到錢(qián)。但人們都忘了我們現(xiàn)在已處于尾端,。如果回顧股市歷史,，投資十年虧錢(qián)的概率是6%。問(wèn)題是我們現(xiàn)在就在這6%內(nèi),，所有人記得這一點(diǎn),。但事實(shí)的真相是，現(xiàn)在概率已變得有利,，估值也變得有利,，企業(yè)利潤(rùn)繼續(xù)創(chuàng)下新高,。

????還有什么好的、我們沒(méi)有談到的想法要分享,？

????奧斯：我要補(bǔ)充兩只股票：中國(guó)國(guó)航（Air China）,。這是另一只走勢(shì)落后的股票。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,，該股必將受益于復(fù)蘇之勢(shì),，它的市場(chǎng)份額在上升，在亞洲航空業(yè)仍具有巨大的增長(zhǎng)潛力,。我們還看好西門(mén)子（Siemens）,，這家大公司將受益于德國(guó)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

????赫羅：如果在股市中深挖,，哪些領(lǐng)域價(jià)格最便宜,？在日本，豐田（Toyota）,、Daiwa,、佳能（Canon）等公司是人們可以隨意買(mǎi)入的藍(lán)籌股。有些歐洲金融公司的股價(jià)還沒(méi)有反彈,，比如瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）,。它的私人銀行平臺(tái)非常出色，產(chǎn)生像年金一樣的優(yōu)異現(xiàn)金流,。其他看好的歐洲藍(lán)籌股是像戴姆勒（Daimler）這樣的全球性公司,，它不僅生產(chǎn)梅賽德斯（Mercedes）這樣的豪車，也有普通商用車,。因此,，我認(rèn)為投資者應(yīng)該關(guān)注的是這類目前被冷落的質(zhì)優(yōu)價(jià)廉股。

????譯者：楊智

???Fuss: I was faced with asset allocation yesterday morning as chair of the committee that does that for some funds, where we have maximum 70% equities and minimum 30% fixed. We're at 30% fixed, 70% equities. I would say, all other things being equal, go max equities and minimum bonds.

????Auth: One thing that makes Wall Street so bearish is what I call the double top on the S&P. And no one wants to talk about it, but guys come to my office all the time, and they all believe that we can't get through the double top. I'm referring to the 1550 top in 2000 and then March of 2007. And, you know, if you look at the valuation of the S&P today compared with when it hit that top in 2000, the U.S. GDP is 50% larger and the global GDP is double. I think there's going to be a little bit of a battle to get through it, but I think when we do, you'll see Wall Street get more bullish. You know, there's a market in 10-year futures on the S&P. It's a swap market. And if you go out today and try to buy the S&P 10 years from now, you can buy it at 10% below current levels.

????Wow!

????Subramanian: I think that everybody is spooked by the fact that for the last 10 years if you bought equities, you would have made no money essentially. But what everybody forgets is that we're living in the tail right now. So if you go back historically and look at the equity market, you had a 6% chance of losing money over a 10-year time horizon. The problem is that we're living in that 6%, and that's what everybody remembers. But the truth of the matter is that you've got probability on your side, you've got valuations on your side, and earnings continue to hit new highs.

????Any more best ideas to share, if we haven't touched on them?

????Auth: I'll add two other quick names: Air China. That's another stock that's underperformed. As China does recover, it's levered to that recovery, and it's growing share, and that's still a big growth business out in Asia. We also like Siemens (SI) as a big German recovery story and a global player.

????Herro: If you dig down in equities, what are some of the cheapest areas? In Japan companies like Toyota (TM), Daiwa (DWHAY), and Canon (CAJ) are blue chips that people can easily buy. Some of the European financials that still haven't rebounded, like Credit Suisse (CS), which has a great private bank platform that generates good annuity-like cash flows. Another European blue chip to like is a company like Daimler, which has a global presence, not only with Mercedes luxury vehicles but in commercial vehicles. So I think these are the types of things investors should be looking at: quality that's out of favor and selling at low prices.