????消費信貸放緩——隨著消費信用放緩，零售額依然保持韌性,，特別是年初以來,。在這方面,，年均以來意大利的3月均值同比好于歐元區(qū)。我們將此歸因于消費信貸的黏性以及儲蓄消耗,。

????失業(yè)壓力——另一個嚴峻的問題是意大利年輕人的失業(yè)率高達39%,，雖然仍低于西班牙年輕人50.2%的失業(yè)率，但如果將“迷惘的一代”與意大利人口老齡化（幾乎是歐洲最年長的）這一人口結(jié)構(gòu)不利因素疊加,，未來一些年社會服務(wù)以及債務(wù)和赤字的壓力沉重,。

????滯漲——我們預(yù)計2012年下半年通脹將放緩，但美元疲軟環(huán)境下能源價格高企,，導(dǎo)致滯漲揮之不去（以及實際收益率為負）已成為全球很多地區(qū)的主題,。

????過去兩年，風險在歐元區(qū)邊緣國家之間忽來忽往（停留時間最長的是希臘）,，并不是什么秘密,，這被稱為歐債危機和銀行業(yè)危機。不過,，當談到“歐豬五國”中最大的經(jīng)濟體——意大利的救助需求時,，事實上我們要討論的是對歐洲大陸經(jīng)濟體和國際經(jīng)濟體的風險（沖擊），由此不可避免地歸結(jié)到一個問題：意大利大到不能倒,？

????過去幾年,，我們看到歐盟官員在三駕馬車的支持下每每為主權(quán)國家提供了救助：希臘、愛爾蘭,、葡萄牙以及如今的西班牙。不幸的是我們認為意大利可能大到?jīng)]法救,。簡單說,，我們相信中期唯一的出路是德國人反對的“發(fā)行歐元債券”，但德國人不愿承擔意大利的信用風險,，確實也無可厚非,。

????畢竟，為何德國人要讓意大利用他的信用卡?

????顯然,，歐洲已無路可退,，因為成員國不太可能為救助機制拿出更多的資金（在這里，國際貨幣基金組織或許需要超越日常權(quán)責,，承擔起更大的責任）,。但我們擔心的以及市場可能還沒有認識到的是世上沒有什么“火箭炮”或萬靈丹可以一勞永逸地消除歐洲的集體主權(quán)債務(wù)危機和銀行業(yè)危機。當然,，意大利的威脅會給歐洲的未來增加更多不確定性,，所有這些預(yù)示著歐洲資本市場的下行風險尚未在市場定價中完全得到反映。

????接下來的兩年會像過去兩年一樣嗎,？我們認為,，答案是有保留的“是”,，但做這樣的預(yù)測可能失之草率，因為歐洲的走向幾乎每天都在變,。目前,，意大利和歐洲其他國家的命運掌握在歐盟官員的手中。攤在桌上的主要議題包括：財政協(xié)議,；泛歐存款保險,；歐元債券；歐洲贖回基金（European Redemption Fund）,；ESM（和EFSF）獲得通過的條款,；以及歐洲金融交易稅。要商討的議題一大堆,；我們相信歐盟官員還是希望能掌控好歐元區(qū)的秩序的,。

????譯者：早稻米

????Consumer Credit Drying Up – As the pace of consumer credit has slowed, retail sales have still remained resilient, especially in the year-to-date period. Here Italy has shown a positive divergence over the Eurozone since the start of the year based on a 3-month average compared to the previous year. We chalk this up the sticky levels of consumer credit, and continued draining on savings.

????Unemployment Hooking - Another grave dynamic is the underemployment across Italian youths at 39%. While short of the 50.2% for Spanish youth, combine "a lost generation" with Italy's demographic headwinds of an aging population (near oldest in Europe) and you have a cocktail that puts great pressure on social services, and the debt and deficit loads in the years ahead.

????Square Stagflation - While we expect inflation to moderate into the back half of 2012, sticky stagflation (and negative real yields) has been a theme across much of the globe as energy prices remain elevated in the weak dollar environment.

????It's no great secret that risk has shifted quite precipitously from peripheral to peripheral over the course of the last two years (with the longest stay in Greece) in what has been called Europe's sovereign debt and banking crisis. However, when we discuss the bailout needs of Italy, the largest economy of the PIIGS, we're talking about risks (disruptions) to continental and global economies that inevitably lead one to the question: Is Italy too big to bail?

????Over the last years we've seen Eurocrats, under the support of Troika, coming to aid the sovereigns at every step: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and now Spain. Unfortunately, we think Italy is far too large to rescue. In short, we believe the only way out over the intermediate term is the issuance of Eurobonds, a position the Germans are against, and rightfully so in our eyes for they do not wish to take on Italy's credit risk.

????After all, why would a German give an Italian use of his credit card carte blanche?

????Clearly, Europe's back is against a wall, as member countries are unlikely to post more capital upfront for bailout facilities (and here the IMF may have to take on a much larger role outside of its mandate). But what we fear, and the market may not understand, is that there is no "bazooka", no panacea, to cure Europe's collective sovereign and banking risks in one shot. Surely, the threat of an Italian default leads us down a road of even higher uncertainty on Europe's future, all of which portends that the downside in European capital markets is not fully priced in.

????Could the next two years look like the last two years? We think the answer could be a qualified yes, however making such calls is reckless given that the direction of Europe changes on a nearly daily basis. For now, the fate of Italy, along with the rest of Europe, will be wrapped in the hands of Eurocrats. The main topics on the table include: a Fiscal Compact; a Pan-European Deposit Insurance; Eurobonds; a European Redemption Fund; the terms of passage of the ESM (and EFSF); and a European Financial Transactions Tax. There's obviously a lot on the table; we do believe that Eurocrats wish to maintain the exiting Eurozone fabric.