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擔(dān)心意大利的14個(gè)理由

擔(dān)心意大利的14個(gè)理由

Matthew Hedrick, Hedgeye 2012-06-26
意大利當(dāng)前的債務(wù)狀況和黯淡的增長(zhǎng)前景蘊(yùn)藏著諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但意大利最最讓人擔(dān)心的還是它“大到不能倒”,。

????勞動(dòng)力成本效率低下——導(dǎo)致意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)增速落后的一個(gè)主要原因是國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)率停滯不前,,正如較高的單位勞動(dòng)力成本所示。工資雖然出現(xiàn)下降,,但還沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)同比下降,。

????工業(yè)生產(chǎn)正在放緩,表現(xiàn)落后,。歐洲委員會(huì)(European Commission)最近的一份意大利評(píng)估報(bào)告指出,,生產(chǎn)停滯是意大利采用歐元以來(lái)喪失成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的主要因素。

????出口增速放緩——積極的一面是2011年初以來(lái),,意大利的凈進(jìn)口額逐漸下降,。但出口增速也在放緩,因此反映到總量數(shù)據(jù)上益處有限,。意大利的出口高度集中于紡織,、服裝、金屬和礦物,,但由于意大利公司的規(guī)模相對(duì)較小,,過(guò)去十年意大利對(duì)歐盟主要貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的出口面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇。另外,,它對(duì)非歐盟國(guó)家(特別是東亞)的出口份額上升,,尚未充分體現(xiàn)益處。[主要出口市場(chǎng):德國(guó)=13.1%,;法國(guó)=11.6%,;西班牙=5.3%]

????新車登記量——這是我們關(guān)注的另一項(xiàng)指標(biāo)。毫無(wú)意外,,該數(shù)據(jù)也低于歐盟國(guó)家的平均水平,。

????儲(chǔ)蓄率下降——意大利家庭的儲(chǔ)蓄率已從2002年年中17.8%的高點(diǎn)降至2011年3季度的11.6%,。下圖呈現(xiàn)了意大利人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上行期和下行期的儲(chǔ)蓄率變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。過(guò)去三年儲(chǔ)蓄率的下降反映了償債以及意大利人維持過(guò)去支出水平的需求,。

????Labor Cost Inefficiencies- A major factor behind Italy's slower growth profile is stagnation in its productivity, witnessed by higher unit labor casts, while wages, despite declines, have yet to turn negative.

????Industrial Productionis slowing and underperforming. A recent European Commission paper reviewing Italy noted that stagnation in production is the key factor behind Italy's loss of cost competitiveness since the euro adoption.

????Export growth slowing– On a positive note, since early 2011 Italy has become less and less of a net importer. However, export growth has also slowed, providing less of a benefit to the top line. Italy has high specialization in textiles, clothing, metal, and minerals, but due to the relatively small size of Italian firms, Italian exports to its main EU trading partners have found increased competition over the last decade. Further, its increased share in non-EU countries (particularly Eastern Asia) has yet to reap full benefit. [Main export partners: Germany = 13.1%; France = 11.6%; Spain = 5.3%]

????New car registrations- Yet another metric we follow. Here again, no surprise, underperformance vs the EU average.

????Smashed Piggy Banks- The Italian household savings rate moved from a high of 17.8% in mid 2002 down to 11.6% as of Q3 2011. The chart shows that Italians leveraged their savings in the upturn and in the downturn. The tapping of savings in the last three years demonstrates to pay off debt and the resilience of the Italian consumer to maintain previous spending levels.

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