????當人們專注于最近西班牙銀行業(yè)獲得的1000億歐元信貸額度用于資本重整時,，當投資者還在消化希臘大選結果時，我們認為有必要將意大利的宏觀經濟失衡和風險置于整個大背景中,，這很重要,。近年來意大利一直被列為“歐豬五國”（PIIGS）之一；由于該國的經濟規(guī)模,，我們向來將其視為歐洲最大的潛在風險。意大利是全球第七大經濟體,，歐洲第四大經濟體和歐元區(qū)第三大經濟體,。

????意大利龐大的債務規(guī)模（1.9萬億歐元，債務/GDP比率120%）,、未來12個月內需要展期的債務如山（近4000億歐元）以及市場對意大利總理馬里奧?蒙蒂降低財政赤字,、拉動經濟增長的信心開始動搖，這些因素都可能導致意大利成為歐洲下一張倒下的多米諾骨牌,。

????此外,，還有對意大利信用可靠度的擔心：近期意大利主權債務CDS利差以及10年期國債收益率都已接近周期高點，這正是意大利在基本面持續(xù)惡化的情況下民間憂慮加深的反映——GDP連續(xù)三個季度呈現(xiàn)下降,；失業(yè)率上升（特別是年輕人的失業(yè)率）,；勞動力市場競爭力弱化；對主要貿易伙伴國的商品出口競爭更激烈,。雖然零售額等數(shù)據相對保持良好（至少今年相比歐元區(qū)是這樣）,，我們基本上認為是儲蓄率下降和消費信貸的極速增長在支撐著這些數(shù)據，預計很快就會回到平均水平,；服務和制造業(yè)數(shù)據持續(xù)為負,，而且我們看不到這種落后于歐元區(qū)的表現(xiàn)將會有中長期的大幅反彈。

????具體到風險信號,。意大利10年期收益率仍高企于6%左右,，5年期CDS報546個基點，僅略低于西班牙CDS的614個基點。我們相信所有這些意味著未來3-5年意大利經濟面臨的壓力上升,。意大利不僅會像所有的歐元區(qū)成員國一樣,，看到經濟疲軟在整個歐元區(qū)的溢出效應——因為大多數(shù)國家的主要貿易伙伴國是歐盟成員國——而且其較高的償債成本也會讓政府有加稅壓力以滿足償債資金需求，所有這些都會對意大利整體經濟帶來向下壓力,。而且,，這出現(xiàn)在意大利國會對蒙蒂的信任發(fā)生動搖、反對緊縮的底層力量（罷工和騷亂）依然強大之時,。

????不過,，評估意大利時不得不提的可取之處是去年該國的公共赤字/GDP比率為-3.9%，明顯好于西班牙的-8.9%,?；蛟S到2013年意大利就能降到《增長與穩(wěn)定公約》（Growth and Stability Pact）規(guī)定的-3%，但我們認為道路仍然充滿挑戰(zhàn),。如果綜合考慮發(fā)布緊縮政策的挑戰(zhàn),、較高的償債成本以及信貸緊縮環(huán)境下歐元區(qū)弱國的溢出效應，意大利今明兩年的增速或不及預期,，而違約風險上升可能需要歐盟官員實施超過現(xiàn)有機制救助能力的救助方案,。如果市場對意大利主權債務和銀行業(yè)危機的擔憂達到一觸即發(fā)的地步，歐元債券或許是唯一可行的解決方案,。

????下面列出意大利最大的十四項宏觀經濟失衡和風險：

????沉重的債務負擔——首先讓我們來看看意大利的債務狀況,。債務/GDP比率120%，在歐洲僅次于希臘,，為第二高,。僅未來12個月，意大利所需償付的債務本息就將達到4000億歐元,。

????With eyes focused on Spain's recent €100 billion credit line to recapitalize its banks and investors digesting the results of the Greek elections last weekend, we thought it's important to contextualize the macroeconomic imbalances and risks in Italy. Italy has long been grouped squarely as a member of the PIIGS, and is a country we've persistently signaled as the largest potential risk threat in Europe, due in particular to the size of its economy, as the seventh-largest global economy, the fourth-largest in Europe, or the third-largest in the Eurozone.

????The main glaring risk threats that could propel Italy down the path to become Europe's next domino is the size of country's outstanding debt (at €1.9 trillion or 120% of GDP); the mountain of debt it has to roll over in the next 12 months (nearly €400 billion); and the market's cracking credibility around Prime Minister Mario Monti's ability to reduce the country's fiscal footprint and spur growth.

????Further, fear around Italy's creditworthiness, which has recently been expressed by near cycle highs in sovereign CDS spreads and government yields on the 10-year bond, follow some rather glaring negative fundamentals over recent quarters and years: declining GDP over the last three consecutive quarters; a rising unemployment rate (especially among its youth); deterioration in labor market competitiveness; and increased competition for export goods to its key trading partners. And while figures such as retail sales have held up relatively well (at least this year compared to the Eurozone), we largely see the number supported by declines in the savings rate and the extreme growth in consumer credit, which we expect to revert to the mean; service and manufacturing figures show a decidedly negative trend and we don't see the underperformance versus the Eurozone aggregate materially rebounding over the intermediate to longer term.

????Specific to risk signals, Italy's 10-year yield remains elevated around 6%, with 5-year CDS trading at 546 basis points, or just under Spain's CDS at 614bps. We believe all this spells increased pressure on the Italian economy to grow over the next 3-5 years. Not only will Italy, like all EU members, see spillover effects from economic weakness throughout the region --as most countries' main trading partners are fellow EU members -- but the higher cost to service its debt will put more pressure on politicians to raise taxes to meet funding requirements, all of which will put further downside pressures on the overall economy. And this comes at a time in which Monti's credibility in parliament is shaking and foot power (strikes and riots) remains strong across a populous that is largely against austerity.

????One saving grace to keep in mind when assessing Italy is that its public deficit stands at -3.9% of GDP as of last year compared to Spain's at -8.9%. Italy may in fact be compliant with the Growth and Stability Pact limit of -3% by 2013, yet we think the road will be challenged. When one combines the challenges of issuing austerity, the higher cost to service debt, and the spillover effects from struggling peer economies with a tighter credit environment, Italy is likely to shoot below its growth forecasts this year and next, while heightened default fears may call Eurocrats to act on a bailout that is greater than the capabilities of the existing bailout facilities. Eurobonds may be the only viable solution should the market's fear of Italy's sovereign and banking risks reach a precipice.

????Here are Italy's greatest macroeconomic imbalances and risks:

????Debt's Drag- We begin by looking at Italy's debt profile. At 120% (as a % of GDP) –the second highest in Europe behind Greece—its debt servicing load will equate to €400 billion over the next 12 months alone.