??? 在經(jīng)濟(jì)零增速之際加稅，的確是個(gè)糟糕的主意,。在這種情況下,，奧朗德應(yīng)當(dāng)討論的是給企業(yè)減稅，而非加稅,。更糟的是社會黨還打算取消上屆政府制訂實(shí)施的一些審慎的改革措施,。首當(dāng)其沖就是把法國全國退休年齡從62歲調(diào)回到60歲。這怎么看都是一個(gè)壞點(diǎn)子,，因?yàn)檫@不僅會降低生產(chǎn)率,，還會給法國添加數(shù)十億歐元債務(wù)，吞噬加稅可能帶來的任何收入,。

????社會黨也探討過采取幾輪赤字支出的可能,，據(jù)此，法國政府將出售大量債券為法國諸多大項(xiàng)目提供資金,。希望這些大型基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目能幫助法國啟動(dòng)停滯不前的經(jīng)濟(jì),。赤字支出固然能成功幫助一個(gè)國家走出衰退，但這種效果通常都是暫時(shí)的,。若不對法國經(jīng)濟(jì)方向進(jìn)行重大調(diào)整,，在這些大項(xiàng)目完成后，法國注定將回到起點(diǎn),。

????拋開政治理念,，所有這些加稅和支出的必然結(jié)果都是暫時(shí)地（如果不是永久地）增加法國的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)?？紤]到當(dāng)前市場對于主權(quán)國家增加負(fù)債有多敏感,，這樣做就是一場非常危險(xiǎn)的賭博。畢竟,，法國剛剛失去完美的AAA信用評級,，并被列入負(fù)面信用觀察。如果法國不認(rèn)真對待削減債務(wù)問題,，信用評級必遭進(jìn)一步下調(diào),，從而抬高借貸成本。很快,，債券市場就會開始質(zhì)疑法國政府的償付能力,，要求更高收益率來持有法國債券,。這種負(fù)反饋循環(huán)最終將推高債券收益率到難以維持的高位，迫使法國要么債務(wù)違約,，要么尋求代價(jià)高昂,、顏面盡失的救助。

????但還有一絲希望顯示社會黨不會毀掉法國,。上周,，法國總理讓-馬克?艾羅宣布，將把政府的政策議程推遲到月底非常重要的歐元區(qū)會議后,。月底的歐元區(qū)會議將探討銀行條例改革,、創(chuàng)建國家級銀行監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)、合并各國債務(wù),、發(fā)行共同債務(wù)工具,，而且更重要的是這是朝著建立更緊密的財(cái)政政治聯(lián)盟邁出的第一步。

????這是法國真正成就歷史的機(jī)會,。與其他歐元區(qū)成員國不同,，法國有一個(gè)可以用一個(gè)聲音說話的政府。無論法國在這個(gè)會議上支持什么都擲地有聲,，因?yàn)樗鼰o需與任何反對黨派進(jìn)行商討或投票,。

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??? Increasing taxes at a time when there is zero economic growth is truly a bad idea. If anything, Hollande should be talking about lowering taxes on businesses and the like, not raising them. To make matters worse, the PS wants to roll back some prudent reforms that were instituted by the previous government. At the top of that list is the move to lower the national retirement age from 62 back to 60. This is an all-around bad idea as it not only cuts productivity, but also tacks billions of euros on to the national debt, wiping out any potential gains expected through the tax hikes.

????The PS has also talked about engaging in several rounds of deficit spending, whereby the government would sell a large amount of debt to fund a number of grand projects across France. The hope is that these large infrastructure projects will help jumpstart the nation's moribund economy. But while deficit spending can be successful in helping to pull a nation out of recession, the effects are usually temporary. Without a major change in the direction of the economy, France is doomed to fall back right where it started after all the grand projects are complete.

????Political philosophies aside, the inescapable conclusion from all of this taxing and spending is a temporary, if not permanent, increase in the nation's debt load. This is a very dangerous gamble for France given how sensitive the market has become to countries tacking on more debt. After all, France just recently lost its coveted triple-A credit rating and is on a negative credit watch by the rating agencies. If it looks like the country is not being serious about slashing its debt load, then its credit rating will fall even further, which will kick up borrowing costs. Soon the bond market will begin to question the solvency of the French government and will demand a higher yield to hold French debt. This negative feedback loop will ultimately send bond yields to an unsustainably high level, forcing France to either default on its debt or seek a crippling and humiliating bailout.

????But there is a glimmer of hope that the PS will not take France down. France's Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault announced this week that he would be delaying the government's policy agenda until after a critical eurozone conference scheduled for the end of this month. At the conference, there will be talk about reforming bank rules, creating a national bank regulator, pooling national debts, issuing a common debt instrument and, most importantly, taking the first steps to a closer fiscal and political union.

????It is here where France has the chance to truly make its mark on history. Unlike the rest of the eurozone member states, France has a government that can truly speak with one voice. Whatever France supports at the conference will remain as such as there would be no need to discuss the situation or vote on anything with opposition groups.