????這些美國(guó)大銀行的歐洲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有多高,？華爾街對(duì)此似乎也不明了。歐洲危機(jī)看來正在影響到當(dāng)?shù)氐臉I(yè)務(wù),。例如,，歐洲并購(gòu)交易和美國(guó)銀行在這些交易上獲得的咨詢費(fèi)目前都接近歷史低點(diǎn)。相比這些美國(guó)銀行在按揭債券或美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)上的投資,，歐洲敞口看來還比較小,。只要它們的對(duì)沖交易能起作用，似乎不太可能有哪家美國(guó)銀行會(huì)因?yàn)闅W洲敞口而倒閉或?yàn)l臨倒閉。衡量美國(guó)銀行體系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高低的堪薩斯城金融壓力指數(shù)（The Kansas City Financial Stress Index）5月份為-11,。低于零,，就意味著美國(guó)大銀行出問題的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低于通常水平。

????不過,，這并不意味著所有人都高枕無憂,。資深銀行業(yè)分析師湯姆?布朗最近就告訴彭博新聞社（Bloomberg News） 稱，美國(guó)一家大銀行的高管稱,，他現(xiàn)在“怕得要死”,。這位高管最大的擔(dān)心是如果歐洲出現(xiàn)違約，美國(guó)銀行進(jìn)行對(duì)沖的對(duì)手可能都沒錢付清,。

????銀行業(yè)分析師克里斯托弗?惠倫說,，現(xiàn)在很多人都在關(guān)注外匯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。高盛的科恩表示,，高盛花了很多時(shí)間來分析交易對(duì)手是否最終會(huì)付給它德拉克馬或其他重新推出的貨幣,。惠倫說,，談到大銀行,，他并不是特別擔(dān)心歐洲，但他也坦陳我們真的不知道,?！叭A爾街的新游戲是猜測(cè)歐洲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在哪里?！被輦愓f,，“我們會(huì)看到的?！?/p>

????譯者：早稻米

????How much are the big U.S. banks at risk in Europe? Wall Street seems mixed on this. Europe's troubles seem to be costing them business. European M&A, for example, and the advisory fees that U.S. banks get on those deals, is around an all-time low for number of deals. Compared to say how much the U.S. banks had riding on mortgage bonds or U.S. real estate, the European bets appear to be small. As long as their hedges work, and that is a big if, it looks unlikely that any U.S. bank would fail, or even come close, due to its exposures in Europe. The Kansas City Financial Stress Index, which ranks how much risk there is in the U.S. banking system, had a reading of -11 in May. Anything under zero means that the risk of having trouble at any of the U.S.'s largest banks is lower than usual.

????That doesn't mean everyone thinks there is nothing to worry about. Veteran bank analyst Tom Brown recently told Bloomberg News that a director at one of the nation's largest banks told Brown that he is "scared to death." The director's main fear was that the counterparties that U.S. banks have placed their hedges with might not have the money to pay up if there were a default in Europe.

????Bank analyst Christopher Whalen says there are a lot of people looking into currency risk. Goldman's Cohn said his firm has spent a lot of time looking into whether trading parties could eventually pay the firm in drachma or other currencies should they reemerge. Whalen says he is not particularly worried about Europe when it comes to the big banks, though he says we really don't know. "The new game on Wall Street is guessing where the European risk is," says Whalen. "We'll find out."