????目前歐元的狀況看來(lái)是每況愈下。隨著西班牙銀行危機(jī)加劇,，6月17日希臘二次大選在即（這次大選可能直接影響到未來(lái)希臘是繼續(xù)留在歐元區(qū)還是自立門戶）,，歐元解體的可能性日增。

????懷疑論者拋出的觀點(diǎn)不容忽視：曾成功預(yù)測(cè)此輪信貸危機(jī)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家魯里埃爾?羅比尼宣稱,，歐元區(qū)將在今年某個(gè)時(shí)候崩潰,，希臘和葡萄牙將脫離歐元區(qū)?！逗谔禊Z效應(yīng)》（The Black Swan）一書作者納西姆?塔勒比則直言,，歐元走到盡頭“沒(méi)什么大不了的”。

????其他很多華爾街人士也上調(diào)了對(duì)歐元區(qū)解體的預(yù)測(cè)概率,。上個(gè)月,，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的喬納森?加納告訴彭博社（Bloomberg）稱，該公司已將歐元區(qū)解體概率從25%調(diào)高到了35%,，解體速度也將加快至12-18個(gè)月,，短于先前預(yù)測(cè)的3-5年?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》援引公共電視臺(tái)德國(guó)電視二臺(tái)（ZDF）上月末發(fā)布的民意調(diào)查結(jié)果稱,，在普遍被視為歐元救世主的德國(guó)，近半數(shù)人口認(rèn)為歐元對(duì)德國(guó)的負(fù)面影響多于正面影響,，高于2月份的43%,。

????雖然關(guān)于歐元區(qū)解體的可能性說(shuō)法林林總總，但歐元保持不倒的可能性也不是沒(méi)有,。下面是四大理由,。

解體過(guò)于痛苦（即便對(duì)德國(guó)也是一樣）

????德國(guó)是歐元區(qū)里唯一一個(gè)有足夠經(jīng)濟(jì)能力，可以維持歐元不倒的國(guó)家,。但過(guò)去三年,，德國(guó)總理安吉拉?默克爾所做的只是讓這些債務(wù)如山的國(guó)家不致于破產(chǎn)而已，為此還要求它們大幅縮減支出——批評(píng)人士認(rèn)為,，這樣的策略事實(shí)上導(dǎo)致危機(jī)升級(jí)（而非緩解）,。

????不難理解為何德國(guó)人不像外圍國(guó)家那樣將歐元區(qū)危機(jī)視為一大威脅。德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在蓬勃發(fā)展,。雖然歐債危機(jī)已近三年,，但目前德國(guó)失業(yè)率處于20年來(lái)的最低水平，而且還在繼續(xù)下降,。但正如億萬(wàn)富翁投資者喬治?索羅斯在意大利的一次長(zhǎng)篇演講中所指,，德國(guó)對(duì)歐元區(qū)的需要不亞于歐元區(qū)對(duì)德國(guó)的需要——如果不是更多的話,。

????歐元區(qū)使德國(guó)的出口產(chǎn)品能保持低價(jià)和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，防止歐元區(qū)其他國(guó)家出現(xiàn)債務(wù)違約,。這些債務(wù)的持有人很多都是德國(guó)的金融機(jī)構(gòu),。因此，如果船沉了,，船上所有人包括德國(guó)在內(nèi)都會(huì)掉進(jìn)水里,。

????“歐元區(qū)可能不會(huì)解體，因?yàn)檫@不僅會(huì)重重打擊外圍國(guó)家,，也會(huì)極大地沖擊德國(guó),。”索羅斯表示,。

????The state of the euro looks bleaker by the day. Amid a deepening banking crisis in Spain and ahead of a pivotal June 17 Greek election that could make or break the nation's ties with the euro zone, the idea of a euro break up has increasingly become a possibility.

????The usual suspects have weighed in: Economist Nouriel Roubini, credited for having foreseen the credit crunch, has said the euro zone would collapse sometime this year, with the departure of Greece and Portugal. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has boldly said the end of the common currency "is not a big deal."

????And many others on Wall Street have raised chances of a breakup. Last month, Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Garner told Bloomberg the firm raised its likelihood to 35% from 25%, with the pace of a breakup accelerating over 12 to 18 months as opposed to the previously estimated three to five years. And now half of the population of Germany, which is widely viewed as the euro's savior, believe the common currency has done more bad than good for Germany, up from 43% in February, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a poll released late last month by public broadcaster ZDF.

????Despite talk of a euro breakup, the euro will likely survive. Here are four reasons why.

It's too painful to breakup (even for Germany)

????Germany is the only euro-zone nation with enough economic pull to keep the euro together. But for the past three years, Chancellor Angela Merkel has done only the minimum needed to keep debt-troubled nations afloat while demanding huge spending cuts in return – a strategy critics say has irritated the crisis rather than ease it.

????It's easy to see why Germans don't see the euro zone crisis as big a threat as the peripheral countries do. Its economy is actually thriving. Even as Europe approaches the three-year mark of its debt crisis, German unemployment is at its lowest in 20 years and falling. However, Germany needs the euro zone as much (if not more) than the union needs Germany, as billionaire investor George Soros highlighted over the weekend during a lengthy speech in Italy.

????The euro zone keeps Germany's exports cheap and therefore competitive. What's more, it keeps other euro nations from defaulting on their debts. And much of those debts are owed to German financial institutions. So if the ship sinks, all on board, including Germany, will sink with it.

????"The likelihood is that the euro will survive because a breakup would be devastating not only for the periphery but also for Germany," Soros said.