????全球各國大選如此集中于某一個年份，這種情況很少見,，甚至絕無僅有,。今年將有七個大國舉行總統(tǒng)大選——按時間先后依次為俄羅斯、法國,、埃及,、墨西哥,、委內(nèi)瑞拉、美國和韓國,。這份全球熱點清單還沒算上希臘4月份的選舉,，以及擬任下一屆中國國家主席的習(xí)近平（將于10月份正式上任）。大選固然是一國事務(wù),，但這七大選舉一定程度上將決定全球兩大難題接下來的走向：我們還需要多久才能走出全球經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期,？國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人還能繼續(xù)沿用壓制數(shù)百萬民眾的策略嗎？

????成熟的民主國家（法國,、墨西哥,、美國和韓國）存在的主要問題是經(jīng)濟(jì)。有點奇怪的是近幾年美國和法國經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)糟糕,，但墨西哥和韓國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑中逆勢急速增長,。可是,，四國選民依然對當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況不滿,，而且四國大選事實上將在分別代表“自由”與“保守”這兩種經(jīng)濟(jì)管理理念的候選人之間展開爭奪。利益攸關(guān),。

????墨西哥和韓國的選民不滿于腐敗和收入不均,。法國和美國的選民不滿于失業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯。共同之處是對現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的極度不滿,；民意調(diào)查顯示,，四國的現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人或執(zhí)政黨的支持率均處于劣勢。選民們可能會把這些廢物趕下臺,。如果他們都如愿以償,，結(jié)果將產(chǎn)生巨大的政策效應(yīng)，因為目前這些國家政府對經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行保守管理與自由管理的比例為3:1（這個1是美國）,。這個比例可能完全顛倒過來,。

????俄羅斯、埃及和委內(nèi)瑞拉的情況與上述四個國家完全不同,。經(jīng)過上一年前所未有的全球群眾性革命后,，民主的本質(zhì)是如今這三個國家的主要問題。大選之后的動向至關(guān)重要,?！鞍⒗骸备锩凶盍钊斯奈璧陌＜叭缃褚廊?a title="" target="_blank">一盤散沙。軍方下令進(jìn)行議會選舉,，但憲法遲遲未能頒布,，估計在6月總統(tǒng)大選前也不會出臺。因此，選舉結(jié)果可能毫無意義,，一切都需要取決于憲法如何擬定,，或者軍方是否會重新掌權(quán)。埃及人能忍受多緩慢的過渡期呢,？

????幸運的是,，埃及是一個新興的民主國家。而俄羅斯和委內(nèi)瑞拉則是冒牌的民主國家,。在我寫這篇文章時，俄羅斯大選還未進(jìn)行,，但當(dāng)你們讀這篇文章的時候,，俄羅斯大選應(yīng)該已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。別擔(dān)心,，我知道結(jié)果會怎樣,。在委內(nèi)瑞拉，我們也同樣可以胸有成竹地認(rèn)為,，現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)烏戈?查韋斯將像俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾?普京一樣使用其近乎獨裁的權(quán)力確保大選獲勝,，盡管他面對的是一個強(qiáng)勁的對手。關(guān)鍵問題是大選結(jié)束之后會出現(xiàn)什么情況,。俄羅斯人和委內(nèi)瑞拉人能接受領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人名不符實的再選連任嗎,？雖然他們過去一直是這樣，但那是在去年爆發(fā)民眾示威和公眾抗議之前?，F(xiàn)在至少存在這樣的可能,，這三個國家的民眾可能站出來，堅持要求實行真正的民主,。

????果真如此,，那將是最好的結(jié)果，正如前面四個成熟的民主國家最好的結(jié)果是轉(zhuǎn)向適度,、低稅率,、對市場友好的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。現(xiàn)在存在兩個未知因素可能徹底打亂上述七個國家的選舉,。一個是外國的挑釁,。在任政府內(nèi)閣在選舉年絕不能示弱，朝鮮或伊朗很容易與其中幾個國家陷入雙輸?shù)臎_突,。另一個因素則是社交媒體,。我們已經(jīng)在中東和俄羅斯看到了它的政治力量，但它其實具有更為廣泛的英系那個,。舉例來說,，在墨西哥，貶低對手的惡性競選方式是違法的，但法律并沒有覆蓋社交媒體,，社交媒體依然不受監(jiān)管,。

????七個國家中最后一場大選是12月19日的韓國大選。假如瑪雅歷法家出錯了,，他們關(guān)于兩天后將是世界末日的預(yù)言并不會成真（我本人仍會購買青香蕉,，放些些日子再吃），屆時我們對世界前景將有更清楚的了解,。

????譯者：老榆木

????Rarely -- maybe never -- has global leadership been more up for grabs in a single year than it is now. Seven major nations are holding presidential elections -- in chronological order, Russia, France, Egypt, Mexico, Venezuela, the U.S., and South Korea. That's a list of hot spots worldwide, without mentioning Greek elections in April or China's presumed next president, Xi Jinping (chosen without the bother of elections), assuming office in October. All elections are local, but these seven big ones will help determine what happens next on two of the world's largest issues: how quickly we'll get through the global economic funk, and whether repressing millions is still a viable strategy for national leaders.

????The main issues in the established democracies -- France, Mexico, the U.S., South Korea -- are economic. That's a bit odd, since the U.S. and French economies have performed terribly in recent years while the Mexican and South Korean economies came roaring out of the global downturn. Yet voters in all four countries are unhappy about their economic situation, and in all four they face a genuine contest between candidates representing fundamentally liberal and conservative management of the economy. Much is at stake.

????Mexican and Korean voters are unhappy about income inequality and corruption. French and American voters are unhappy about unemployment and stagnation. The common factor is profound dissatisfaction with the leaders they've got; opinion polls show the incumbent candidates or parties trailing in all four countries. Voters may just throw the bums out. If they do so across the board, the policy effect will be large, since these countries currently have economically conservative administrations by a ratio of 3 to 1 (the "1" being the U.S.). That ratio could flip.

????The essential issue is much different in Russia, Egypt, and Venezuela. For them, it's the very nature of democracy after a year of unprecedented popular rage worldwide. In each case the most important developments may be what happens after the elections. Egypt, the most inspiring story of the Arab Spring, cannot get its act together. The generals decreed parliamentary elections though the country still has no constitution, nor will it have one before the June presidential election. So the results may be meaningless, depending on how the constitution gets written, or if the generals seize back power. How slow a transition will Egyptians tolerate?

????Egypt is, with luck, a nascent democracy. Russia and Venezuela are bogus democracies. The Russian election hasn't happened as I write this, but it will have happened as you read this. Don't worry -- I know how it turned out. In Venezuela, we can be similarly confident that Hugo Chávez, like Vladimir Putin, will use his near-dictatorial powers to ensure a win, though he faces a credible opponent. The key question is what happens then. Will Russians and Venezuelans accept their leaders' phony reelections? They've always done so, but that was before the past year of demonstrations and public anger. There's at least a chance that the people of all three nations will rise up to insist on genuine democracy.

????That would be the best outcome, just as the best result in the four established democracies would be moves toward moderate, low-tax, market-friendly economic policies. Two wild cards could disrupt elections in any of these countries. One is foreign aggression. Incumbents can never appear weak in an election year, and North Korea or Iran could easily involve several of these countries in no-win conflicts. The other wild card is social media. We've seen its political power in the Middle East and Russia, but the effect is broader. In Mexico, for example, negative campaigning is illegal, but the law never contemplated social media, which are unregulated.

????The last of the seven big elections will be South Korea's on Dec. 19. Assuming the Mayan calendar theorists are wrong about the world ending two days later -- personally, I will still be buying green bananas -- we'll have by then a much clearer picture of where our world is heading.