效仿愛爾蘭

????但這只是問題的一個(gè)方面,。另一方面,，來自德國(guó)、中國(guó)和美國(guó)的進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)低于意大利人和西班牙人過去購(gòu)買的國(guó)產(chǎn)貨,。廉價(jià)的進(jìn)口商品大批涌入,，取代了西班牙、意大利國(guó)產(chǎn)商品,。

????歐洲南部國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫破滅后,，這些國(guó)家既無法通過擴(kuò)大出口來恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速，國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)又無力與進(jìn)口商品競(jìng)爭(zhēng),。它們的產(chǎn)品無論是在國(guó)際市場(chǎng),、還是在本國(guó)市場(chǎng)，都顯得太昂貴了,。

????歐洲南部國(guó)家正在盡自己的力量,，試圖恢復(fù)一點(diǎn)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。西班牙,、意大利和希臘的利率飆升最終緩和了薪資上漲的勢(shì)頭,，因此單位勞動(dòng)力成本已經(jīng)停止攀升。但薪資增幅的放緩還遠(yuǎn)不足以讓這些國(guó)家恢復(fù)到歐元誕生前的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速,。

????南部國(guó)家已經(jīng)陷入絕境,。要將單位勞動(dòng)力成本降至讓他們具有國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的水平，歐洲南部國(guó)家只有兩條道路,。第一條是大幅降低薪資,，否則就必須大幅提高生產(chǎn)率，出售效率低下的國(guó)有控股公司,，清理限制性的勞動(dòng)法規(guī)以及錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜,、抑制競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的法律法規(guī)。

????迄今為止,，只有愛爾蘭是選擇了這條痛苦的道路,。希臘、西班牙和意大利似乎無意跟進(jìn),。它們目前沒有實(shí)施嚴(yán)厲改革,，但這并不意味著歐元一定會(huì)終結(jié),。

????“我不太相信弱國(guó)退出歐元區(qū)是不可避免的結(jié)局,，” 達(dá)迪什說,。“它們可以憑借減債和富國(guó)的撥款,，繼續(xù)留在歐元區(qū),。”不過,，選擇這條道路,，未來西班牙、意大利和其他國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將注定非常緩慢,。

????第二條道路是恢復(fù)本國(guó)貨幣,，選擇大部分債務(wù)違約，但經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將高得多,。歐元已然宣告失敗,。歐元區(qū)所有成員國(guó)的最優(yōu)選擇是徹底解除市場(chǎng)管制，享受本國(guó)貨幣的靈活性,。如果歐洲南部國(guó)家選擇第一條道路,，他們將永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)成為富有活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。如果他們選擇第二條道路,，至少經(jīng)濟(jì)還能實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng),。

????歐元區(qū)不解體，危機(jī)就不會(huì)終結(jié),，它還會(huì)持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間,，在未來數(shù)年給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景蒙上陰影。長(zhǎng)痛不如短痛,。眼見前景黯淡,，可能喪失出口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)能力，歐元區(qū)弱國(guó)可能最終會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向他們現(xiàn)在還認(rèn)為不可想象的解決方案,，那就是退出這個(gè)貨幣聯(lián)盟,，盡管三年前他們還視歐元為救世主。

Following Ireland's lead

????That's only half the story. German, Chinese and American imports became far cheaper than domestically produced goods that Italians and Spaniards used to buy. A flood of cheap imports replaced goods that Spain or Italy used to make at home.

????When the domestic bubbles popped in the southern tier, their nations couldn't increase exports to restore growth, and their domestic industries frequently couldn't compete with imports. Their products were simply too expensive both on world markets, and in their own shops and supermarkets.

????The southern tier is doing its part to restore a bit of competitiveness. The sharp increase in rates for Spain, Italy and Greece has finally moderated the rise in wages, so that the unit labor cost gap is no longer growing. But wage growth isn't shrinking remotely fast enough to restore anything resembling the countries' pre-euro growth rates.

????The southern countries are in a box. They have only two options to lower their unit labor costs to the level where they can compete on the world stage: They must substantially lower wages, or they must become far more productive by selling off inefficient, state-controlled companies and eliminating restrictive labor laws and a maze of anti-competitive regulations.

????So far, Ireland is the only nation that has pursued that painful course. Greece, Spain and Italy show little inclination to follow. Their failure to enact draconian reforms doesn't necessarily spell the end to the euro.

????"I'm very hesitant to say that leaving the euro is inevitable for the weaker countries," says Dadush. "They can stay in with a combination of debt relief and grants from the richer countries." That course, however, sentences Spain, Italy and the others to a future of extremely slow growth.

????The alternative is to restore their own currencies, default on a big portion of their debt, and then grow far faster. The euro has failed. The best option is for all eurozone members to radically deregulate their markets, and also enjoy the flexibility of their own currencies. Unless they do the former, they will never become vibrant economies. But if they do the latter, at least they can grow again.

????If the eurozone stays together, the crisis won't end. It will drag on a lot longer, burdening the world economy with years of uncertainty. It may be best to take the pain now. Faced with grinding, stagnant future, unable to export or grow, the weaklings may eventually warm to the solution they now brand as unthinkable, an exit from a union that just three years ago looked like their salvation.