石油：看跌

????即使有些人認(rèn)為2012年油價表現(xiàn)將相當(dāng)堅(jiān)韌,，油價下跌的可能性仍然很大,。是的，2012年石油供應(yīng)將有所恢復(fù),，利比亞石油產(chǎn)量將增加,，北海和非洲西部的產(chǎn)量也將企穩(wěn)。

????但摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）預(yù)計(jì)需求將會放緩,，導(dǎo)致2012年上半年油價出現(xiàn)下跌,。該公司預(yù)計(jì)悲觀情形下，明年油價將跌至75美元/桶,。

Oil: Bear

????Even if some think oil could prove resilient in 2012, there's still a good possibility the prices will tumble. It's true that oil supplies could recover in 2012 with production picking up in Libya and stabilizing in the North Sea and West Africa.

????But Morgan Stanley sees demand slowing, with prices expected to fall in the first half of 2012. In its bear case, it expects prices to fall to $75 a barrel next year.